Publications

Leveraging project insights to strengthen WEAI for climate research

Key messages
• Measuring women’s empowerment in the context of climate change, resilience, and adaptation requires a flexible climate module—not a rigid, universal set of indicators.
• Collective agency, community involvement, and social networks are critical to climate resilience. The project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (pro-WEAI)
should expand its climate module to better capture these community dynamics and collective actions.
• Integrating qualitative methods strengthens pro-WEAI’s effectiveness and ensures the tool is tailored to local contexts, which is essential for collecting meaningful and holistic data.

External assessment of outcomes from IFPRI’s causal impact evaluation research 2012–2022

This report describes methods and findings from an assessment of the International Food Policy Research Institute’s (IFPRI) causal impact evaluation (CIE) research over the period 2012–2022. CIE research is recognized within IFPRI as one of its primary means for contributing to informed policy and program decisions and thus forms a key part of one of its impact pathways. Appendix A contains the terms of reference (TOR) for the study. The main goal was to examine how the outputs of this research were used by stakeholders to make decisions. Many of the impact evaluations considered were conducted in partnership with donors and implementing organizations eager to know the effectiveness of their programs and interventions.

2024 IFPRI annual report

IFPRI’s 2024 annual report reviews highlights from our research to reduce hunger and malnutrition, including work in conflict-affected settings and on nutrition and diets, and our engagement around the world through our country and regional offices and global events.

IFPRI at a glance

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) believes that by working together, the global community can sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition. IFPRI provides cutting-edge research and policy options on food and nutrition security to support these goals. For more than 40 years, IFPRI has collaborated with stakeholders and partners to contribute needed evidence for country- and region-led policies that help ensure that all people have access to safe, sufficient, nutritious, and sustainably grown food.

Uncovering the pathways to gender equality and women’s empowerment through agricultural research for development: Lessons from the Feed the Future innovation labs

Gender equality and women’s empowerment are important development goals for their intrinsic value as well as for achieving other important wellbeing outcomes, such as improved health, nutrition, and food security. Agricultural research for development plays an important role in understanding gender relations, dynamics, and inequalities and in identifying effective strategies and interventions to achieve these goals. The Feed the Future Innovation Labs (ILs) were initiatives supported by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and led by U.S. universities, in partnership with international and national research institutes, with the aim to achieve poverty reduction, food security, nutrition, and resilience objectives. The ILs also aimed to facilitate women’s empowerment and address gender inequality in agri-food systems (AFS).

This study aims to document, categorize, and identify learnings from gender-related research produced by the ILs through an extensive desk review and key informant interviews (KIIs) with gender focal points, researchers, and directors at the ILs. While recognizing the importance of capacity building for gender-related research, we only look at research products and do not review capacity building or other training materials for gender-related research produced by the ILs. As this study is focused on understanding gender-related learnings, we also do not include gender-blind research products produced by the ILs. Based on the final set of research outputs that have at least some focus on gender, we then analyze the gender-related research findings using the reach, benefit, empower, and transform framework. In addition, we also explore the factors that enabled ILs to prioritize and produce gender-related research and learnings.

We draw lessons about the types of research studies that have been carried out under the ILs and the insights that can be gleaned from these studies for designing agricultural innovations and interventions and understanding what works to address gender inequalities in agrifood systems. Much of this work was gender focused and diagnostic or formative. Fewer research studies employed causal methods to understand how interventions are influencing gender equality and women’s empowerment in agriculture. Only a subset of research focused on specific innovations or interventions, which suggests more research is needed in this area, particularly as new innovations are being tested and scaled, as was the objective of many of the ILs. We highlight areas where additional research is needed to inform investments and interventions going forward, such as an increase in integrating gender-informed approaches in research across disciplines, gender-related research that employs causal methods, and in understanding the impacts of interventions that are gender-transformative. Finally, we identify key enabling factors that helped ILs prioritize gender integration, such as institutional leadership’s support for gender integration, sufficient time and budgets earmarked for gender work and staff, and ensuring staff responsible for gender-related research have requisite skills, expertise, and communication skills to work across interdisciplinary teams. Current and future agricultural research for development projects should prioritize gender-related research across their portfolios to strengthen attention to understanding how innovations and interventions can influence gender equality and women’s empowerment in agriculture.

Rural credit, food security, and resilience: An empirical evaluation from Kenya

In this paper, we examine the role of credit in enhancing rural households’ food security and resilience. In so doing, we consider resilience as a higher order capacity outcome, different from traditional development outcomes associated with households’ or individuals’ welfare. We evaluate the effectiveness of two types of agricultural production credit products, one a traditional credit and one that is linked to rainfall index insurance to protect borrowers against the adverse effects of drought. Based on a randomized controlled trial conducted in Machakos county, Kenya, we report both intent-to-treat effects as well as local average treatment effects to demonstrate the impacts of these credit products not only among borrowers, but the broader effects of expanding rural credit markets. We see generally low levels of food security resilience among our sampled households, but we find compelling evidence that credit and expanded credit markets more broadly had beneficial impacts on enhancing households’ food security and resilience. Despite the differences in the two credit products being evaluated, we do not find an appreciable difference in the effects of the two credit types, concluding that the expansion of affordable agricultural credit markets should be among the key policy tools for building resilience among rural smallholders.

Gender-based barriers hindering the uptake of CSA and CIS technologies in rice production systems in Mali

Women face significant challenges to adapt to the climate change effect in rice farming, due to socio-cultural norms, and unequal access to agricultural resources, climate-adapted technologies, and climate information services. This study explores the gendered constraints and opportunities in rice production in Mali, with the aims to identify enabling mechanisms that support women in accessing and using these climate smart technologies and practices. It is based on qualitative data collected from 12 circles in five rice growing regions in Mali (Ségou, Sikasso, Koulikoro, Dioila, and San) among 35 key informant interviews (KIIs) held with 259 respondents (171 men and 88 women), and 40 sex-disaggregated focus group discussions (FGDs), that engaged 348 farmers (180 men and 168 women). Findings reveal that barriers to adoption of CSA and CIS technologies include socio-cultural norms, financial barriers, limited training and literacy, as well as differences in access to and control over agricultural resources; women experience additional challenge such as limited access to farmland, reliance on male counterparts for equipment, and restricted access to credit. The study recommends gender-inclusive strategies including delivering information in local languages, expanding training opportunities for farmers, and improving women’s access to credit. Awareness campaigns on climate-resilient crop varieties and sustainable practices can increase adoption and build women resilience in rice-based farming systems.

Lessons on methodologies to assess women’s empowerment from two agricultural and livestock project portfolios

To assess broader trends and impacts on women’s empowerment through agricultural development interventions, there is a need to compare projects and their impacts. This paper is based on the experiences of the Cultivate Africa’s Future (CultiAF) and the Livestock Vaccine Innovation Fund (LVIF) project portfolios implemented in African and Asian countries. We draw lessons from the constraints and opportunities of using standardized tools for measuring women’s empowerment, such as the project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (pro-WEAI) and the Women’s Empowerment in Livestock Index (WELI) tools. We also make recommendations for the improvement of these tools and their use.
We conclude that, while these tools measure individual and household-level empowerment, complementary methods are needed to capture broader societal changes. The length of
the tools has resulted in concerns about respondent fatigue, but balancing the need for comprehensive data with respondent burden is important. Streamlined versions of the pro-WEAI and the WELI could be useful for projects not primarily focused on empowerment. Proper interpretation of empowerment data is emphasized in this paper, with comparisons across time, gender and projects identified as being key to meaningful insights. The paper also underscores the importance of consistent measurement to ensure valid results.
These learnings can inform improvement of the tools to better identify the best approaches to support women’s empowerment in agriculture and livestock. The learnings will also be useful for development and research organizations implementing portfolios of projects with women’s empowerment objectives and for developers of pro-WEAI tools, WELI tools and similar tools for measuring women’s empowerment.

GCAN partner workshop: Report on lessons and recommendations for policy engagement and capacity strengthening

The Gender, Climate Change and Nutrition Integration Initiative (GCAN), led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), has been working to integrate gender, climate resilience, and nutrition considerations into policy, interventions, and research since 2016. Since 2023, the initiative has been working in five focal countries with support from the Gates Foundation.

Development readiness

Why do some systems move while others stall—even when resources, plans, and intent appear similar? This paper introduces the concept of development readiness as one way to understand and address this question. Development readiness is defined as the capacity of a system to act—at the right time, at the right scale, and with purpose—whether in response to crises or in pursuit of development goals. It emerges when kinetic capacity (the ability to move people, goods, and services) aligns with negotiation capacity (the ability to coordinate, decide, and resolve), conditioned by activation costs (tangible and intangible obstacles) and option value (flexibility to act under uncertainty). A conceptual framework based on these four operational forces is set out and illustrated with real-world examples. A structured research agenda and strategy emerges, along with implications for investment and operations. The case illustrations demonstrate that the development readiness framework applies equally at national, sectoral, and organizational levels, with wide-ranging applications—from scaling innovations, accelerating service delivery, and strengthening value chains, to deepening climate resilience and enabling coordinated action in crisis-prone and institutionally fragmented settings.

Coping with crisis: Livelihood vulnerabilities and food insecurity in Sudan’s current conflict

Sudan’s conflict, reignited in April 2023, represents not just a military contest between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), but a total systemic collapse that has engulfed governance, infrastructure, markets, and public services. This conflict did not arise in a vacuum. Sudan has long faced structural vulnerabilities including weak institutions, a fragile economy, and climate-related stressors such as erratic rainfall and land degradation. The war, however, accelerated these pre-existing fault lines into a full-blown crisis.

Key urban economies such as Khartoum have been devastated by airstrikes and sieges, while transport corridors and trade routes have been severed. Local governance structures in many regions have been displaced or dissolved, leaving civilians without recourse to basic services or protection. Simultaneously, the banking sector has fractured, disrupting remittances, cash transfers, and supply chains across the country. Insecurity has driven over 12.8 million people from their homes – 8.6 million internally and 3.9 million seeking refuge neighboring countries, as of May 2025 (UNHCR, 2025).

What do we know about the future of the environment and biodiversity in relation to food systems?

The environment’s proper functioning is essential for a better life on Earth, including maintaining, enhancing, and restoring biodiversity and ecosystem services. While the environment is driven by external factors and shocks as well as interventions within the global food system, it simultaneously drives the overall health and stability of the planet. This relationship involves complex interactions and tipping points, which foresight research needs to capture in analyzing alternative future pathways for food system transformation.

A sustainable and resilient environment requires holistic approaches, strategies, and policies to address environmental stresses and promote conservation, regeneration, and coexistence with nature. These include practices that respect ecological boundaries, reduce resource consumption and conflict, foster biodiversity, and enhance ecosystem recovery and adaptability. Foresight research is essential to help decision-makers understand synergies and trade-offs between long-term public goods benefits and short-term private costs from resource use and management.

Addressing food systems challenges — including root causes of environmental degradation and biodiversity loss — requires sustainable land and soil management, conservation efforts, and food production practices, in addition to economic viability and social inclusion. Foresight analysis can help policymakers, communities, and industries make informed decisions and prioritize and deploy effective and holistic strategies at the biodiversity-climate-society nexus.

What do we know about the future of agrobiodiversity in relation to food systems?

Agrobiodiversity — the diversity of living organisms that underpin agricultural systems — provides numerous critical benefits, from on-farm crop diversity and genetic resources that allow farmers to adapt crops to changing environments to the provision of ecosystem services such as pollination, disease and pest resistance, soil health, and water conservation. These benefits in turn support resilient livelihoods, food security, and diversified, nutritious diets.

A number of ex ante theoretical and practical approaches have been used to show how greater agricultural biodiversity is connected to higher production and lower risk exposure, and to assess the role that agrobiodiversity plays in supporting agricultural systems resilience. But little has been done to integrate the measurement of agrobiodiversity into foresight modeling, or to apply foresight tools and methods to study long-term effects of agrobiodiversity on socioeconomic or environmental outcomes.

The recent development of the Agrobiodiversity Index and advances in integrated modeling systems provide opportunities for improved scenario analysis focused on agrobiodiversity and informed by agroecology and agricultural economics theory.

What do we know about the future of food systems innovation?

Innovations have been and will continue to be critical drivers of food systems and societal change.

Predicting “game-changing” technology ahead of time is not possible, and silver bullets do not exist.

Novel innovations can alleviate some challenges, but unintended consequences always arise.

Foresight research can help to identify undesirable outcomes early on and align investments and incentives with social and environmental objectives.

What do we know about the impacts of the next El Niño on agrifood systems?

As of June 2023, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared that El Niño conditions were present and consensus existed among climate prediction centers that El Niño would likely persist from November 2023 to February 2024.

El Niño is typically associated with seasonal climate anomalies and extreme weather events throughout the developing world, especially across sub-Saharan Africa, but the economic impacts caused by these events are difficult to disentangle from those of other climate shocks, natural disasters, and economic cycles. Additionally, the strength and consistency of El Niño’s agroclimatic impacts vary by region.

El Niño’s unique slow onset, periodic pattern, and lead times of prediction (from a few months to a year) make it possible to design anticipatory policies and prepare emergency responses in advance.

Policymakers should closely monitor the evolution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases and the potential impacts of El Niño and be prepared to coordinate policy responses quickly as the situation unfolds.

As global warming continues and climate extremes occur more frequently, actions to foster climate-resilient agrifood systems should be broadly prioritized.

What do we know about the future of gender equality in relation to food systems?

Foresight research has yet to fully explore gender equality as an outcome and a driver of food systems transformation.

Foresight analysis can assess which food systems investments and interventions are most effective at reducing gender inequalities and increasing women’s empowerment.

Addressing structural inequalities, promoting inclusivity in decision-making, and challenging patriarchal norms can enhance gender equality, social inclusion, and women’s empowerment in food systems transformation. Neglecting gender barriers when designing and disseminating food systems innovations may exacerbate gender inequalities and limit women’s empowerment.

Gender equality, women’s empowerment, and social inclusion also drive food systems transformation, leading to improved welfare outcomes for all. Foresight research should examine how closing gender gaps in livelihood opportunities, agricultural productivity, and resilience capacities can impact other food systems outcomes, such as poverty reduction, food security, and nutrition.

While data on gender inequalities in food systems and women’s empowerment have increased over the last 10 years, more sex-disaggregated data and impact evaluation studies are needed for rigorous foresight research on gender equality in agrifood systems.

What do we know about the future of pulses in global and regional agrifood systems?

Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) account for about 55 percent of global pulse production. Nearly one-half (48 percent) of global production occurs in 16 low- and lower-middle income countries in the drylands of South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

The gap between pulse demand and supply is increasing in South Asia.

Most recent foresight studies on pulses are focused on climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation.

Future foresight studies on specific pulse crops should target regions where these pulses are important in human diets.

Pulse trade should be promoted between countries that encompass the drylands of South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

What do we know about the future of food systems?

Food systems have achieved remarkable progress in recent decades, but moving forward, they will face significant challenges in delivering the many outputs and services we expect and need. This book presents a collection of short chapters on the current state of knowledge about different aspects of the future of food systems, written by a diverse group of scientists from around the world with expertise in a wide range of related disciplines and regions.

Each chapter examines a particular aspect of food systems, describes recent trends and challenges that highlight the importance of the topic, summarizes the latest available foresight research on that topic, and identifies key gaps in existing foresight research that merit further attention. In a world of complexity and uncertainty, the goal of this book — and the purpose of foresight analysis, more generally — is not to predict the future with precision, but rather to carefully consider and present what can be known about possible future pathways in order to inform choices today.

The collection includes 15 chapters focused on major drivers and impacts of change in food systems, 11 chapters that provide regional and national perspectives on the future of food systems, 7 chapters on the future of major food commodities, and 3 chapters on food systems measurement and modeling tools. The contributors come from across CGIAR and many other partner research institutions around the world. This collection was begun as part of the CGIAR Research Initiative on Foresight during the 2022–2024 period and completed as part of the ongoing area of work on foresight and prioritization under the CGIAR Science Program on Policy Innovations.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: June 2025

This report analyzes key market trends in Sudan from February to June 2025, focusing on the prices, availability, and quality of essential commodities—cereals, vegetables, animal products, agricultural inputs, fuel, and exchange rates. Consistent with previous editions, it reveals significant spatial and temporal disparities across Sudan’s 18 states.

Cereals showed mixed trends. Wheat prices stabilized in June after a mid-May spike, while sorghum and millet fluctuated modestly. Wheat flour prices continued rising. Perceived availability and quality, particularly of wheat and wheat flour, deteriorated in June, with highest prices in conflict-affected and remote areas. Vegetables—particularly tomatoes and potatoes—experienced sharp price hikes in June, largely due to seasonal pressures and logistical disruptions. Onion prices were more stable but showed regional variation.

Animal products faced upward price pressure and volatility. Prices of lamb, beef, and eggs rose steadily; chicken and fish were erratic, and milk prices fluctuated. Availability declined, especially for beef and eggs. Perceived quality improved for meat but dropped for chicken and fish. Other staples, including sugar, cooking oil, fava beans, and oilseeds, had relatively stable trends overall, but prices varied widely by state. Sugar and fava beans rose sharply, particularly in South Kordofan and Kas sala.

Agricultural inputs showed moderate price fluctuations. Improved seed varieties remained costlier than local ones, with peaks for wheat and potato seeds. Fuel prices in parallel markets spiked in April–May before easing in June. South Kordofan and Central Darfur recorded the highest prices.

Exchange rates continued to diverge between official and parallel markets, with wide regional dis parities—Khartoum, Gedaref, and North Kordofan reported the highest parallel rates.

Country profile – Kenya: Gender, climate change, and nutrition linkages

Agriculture is vital to Kenya's economy, accounting for 20% of the country’s GDP in 2020. Yet the growth of the sector has slowed in recent years due to unfavorable weather conditions, leading to a reduction in crop and livestock performance (Central Bank of Kenya, 2023). While employment in agriculture has been steadily declining (to 32% in 2023), the sector still employs a large share of the rural population and is the main source of informal employment, rural income, and livelihoods (D’Alessandro et al., 2015; ILO 2025).

A majority of Kenyan farmers operate on a small scale and are solely dependent on rainfall (D’Alessandro et al., 2015). However, since the 1970s, the country has experienced significant changes in rainfall pat terns--average rainfall during the long season has decreased while rainfall during other times of the year has increased and the country has experienced more frequent climate extreme events (Kogo et al. 2021). Increased climate variability has negative effects on agriculture and may exacerbate inequalities within the sector. Due to gender inequalities and gender-differentiated roles in agrifood systems, men and women do not experience climate change and variability in the same ways (Balikoowa et al., 2019; Lecoutere et al. 2023). According to the World Economic Forum, women are more vulnerable than men to climate change due to lower education and exclusion from the political and domestic decision-making processes that affect their lives (Gunawardena, 2020).

Women’s economic empowerment and leadership: Examining an intervention for smallholder farmers delivered via farmer producer organizations in Guatemala using qualitative methods

Women work across multiple nodes in agricultural value chains, though their participation in value chains varies within and across contexts and their contributions are often underrecognized (Malapit et al., 2020; Quisumbing et al., 2021). Addressing issues such as weak economic growth, climate change, and hunger will require strengthening agricultural value chains, though doing so without a gender-sensitive lens may exacerbate existing gender inequalities within them (Rubin & Manfre, 2014). Development practitioners seeking to strengthen agricultural value chains are increasingly interested in programs that use group-based approaches, as they may reach many people efficiently using such a strategy. However, there is not much evidence on how to increase women’s economic opportunities in agricultural value chains and bolster women’s leadership within the context of group-based interventions.

TechnoServe, with funding support from the Walmart Foundation, began implementing the Smallholder Market Access (SMA) program in Guatemala and Nicaragua in 2019. The goal of this program was to work with farmer producer organizations (FPOs) and affiliated smallholder farmers in fresh produce agricultural value chains (AVCs) to increase the productivity, profits, and the market share of FPOs among smallholder farmers. The program also sought to strengthen women’s inclusion in AVCs, leadership, and empowerment by offering both gender-responsive and gender-transformative program components, particularly though agronomy trainings and gender equality trainings for women and men, as well as women’s leadership trainings for women only.

This qualitative study focuses on SMA in Guatemala. We investigated gender dynamics in FPOs, women’s empowerment, women’s leadership, and how SMA may influence these themes. Ultimately, the goal of this study was to gain insights on the strengths of SMA programming with regard to women smallholder farmers’ economic and leadership opportunities, as well as to identify opportunities to strengthen the program. We collected data from in-depth interviews with eight SMA staff, nine FPO lead ers, and 18 FPO members. We also conducted six single-sex focus group discussions with FPO members, which included 15 women and 13 men total. The FPOs sampled did not receive the full SMA treatment prior to data collection; as such, the results presented in this study reflect perceptions of different components of SMA that had been only partially implemented prior to data collection.

Do others’ health count for peanuts? Health, market returns, and pro-sociality

Individuals often make decisions considering both private returns and welfare impacts on others. Food safety decisions by smallholder agricultural producers exemplify this choice, particularly in low-income countries where farmers often consume some of the food crops they produce and sell or donate the rest. We conduct a lab-in-the-field experiment with peanuts producers in Senegal to study the decision to invest in food safety information, exogenously varying the degree of private returns (monetary or health-wise) and welfare impacts on others. Producers are willing to pay real money for food safety information even absent the potential for private returns, but willingness to pay increases with the potential for private returns. A randomized information treatment significantly increases willingness to pay in all scenarios. Our results shed light on the complex interplay between altruism and economic decisions in the presence of externalities, and point to the potential of timely and targeted information to address food safety issues.

Rethinking delivery modalities in conflict-affected settings: Why beneficiaries in Sudan prefer digital transfers

The recent surge in armed conflicts across Africa is increasing demand for humanitarian and social assistance, creating significant pressure on humanitarian actors to deliver life-saving support amid insecurity and constrained resources. The conflict that erupted in Sudan in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has resulted in the world’s largest displacement crisis, triggering an acute and multidimensional humanitarian emergency requiring urgent and substantial international support. These armed conflicts in Africa are threatening important gains in poverty reduction made in the last few decades.

While armed conflicts and associated crises increase the need for assistance, they simultaneously undermine the capacity to deliver it. In conflict-affected settings, the operational environment is often marked by damaged infrastructure, disrupted markets, weakened institutions, and limited humanitarian access. These challenges hinder the effectiveness, targeting, and coverage of social protection and humanitarian aid programs (Ghorpade, 2017; 2020; Lind et al., 2022). Moreover, the proliferation of armed groups—including both state and non-state actors—can obstruct aid delivery or divert assistance, further limiting program reach and impact. Compounding these challenges is a widening humanitarian financing gap, driven by escalating needs and declining donor contributions. In response, development and humanitarian actors are increasingly exploring cost-effective delivery mechanisms to improve efficiency, transparency, and reach of humanitarian aid to vulnerable populations. Among these, digital transfers, including mobile money, offer promising avenues for delivering assistance in fragile settings where conventional approaches may be impractical or insecure.

This brief draws on evidence from Sudan to assess the feasibility and demand for digital transfers in humanitarian response. It explores emerging practices and offers insights for policymakers, donors, and implementing agencies aiming to adapt assistance modalities to meet the challenges of protracted crises.

Digital finance and agri-food value chains: Case studies from Kenya

Kenya’s agrifood systems are broad and diverse, including both staple food crops and high-value exports which are essential to the economic and social advancement of the nation. The agricultural sector em ploys more than 40 percent of Kenya's workforce, including more than 70 percent of rural residents, and accounts for about 33 percent of the country's GDP (FAO, 2023a; FAO, n.d.). The growth of Kenya’s agrifood system is largely driven by domestic market demand rather than exports, a trend driven by rapid urbanization and rising income opportunities in the rural nonfarm sector, which are leading to shifts in dietary preferences and are expected to further influence ongoing structural transformation (Diao et al., 2023).

Kenya’s agricultural sector is characterized by several value chains that significantly support economic output, job creation, and trade. Tea is Kenya's most significant agricultural export, contributing about 2 percent to the overall GDP and 4 percent to GDP in agriculture. Managed predominantly by the Kenya Tea Development Agency (KTDA), which oversees over 60 percent of national tea production, the sector supports approximately 6.5 million people (Tea Board of Kenya, 2024). Tea also contributes around 21 percent of Kenya's export earnings, which makes it the third-largest source of foreign exchange earnings in the nation after diaspora remittances and tourism (Kilimo News, 2024).

Digital finance and agri-food value chains: Case studies from Ethiopia

Agriculture is of paramount importance to Ethiopia’s economy. Agriculture accounts for 40 percent of the country's GDP, 80 percent of export earnings, and employs 75 percent of the population (Tamene & Ali, 2022). Crop and livestock production account for roughly 65 percent and 25 percent of agricultural GDP, respectively (International Trade Administration, 2024). Cereals account for roughly 90 percent of total grain production. Teff, known for its gluten-free nutritional aspect, takes the leading share of cereals by production area (ESS 2022). Ethiopia is also the second-largest wheat producer in Africa, following South Africa, with an expansion potential of 1.3 million hectares (Senbeta & Worku, 2023). Coffee, a crop with high cultural and economic importance in Ethiopia, accounts for 30 percent of exports and 25 percent of total employment. Ethiopia stands as Africa's leading coffee producer and among the top five coffee producing nations worldwide (Tefera & Torry, 2023).

Within Ethiopia’s overall agri-food system, most agricultural value chain activity fits the traditional definition, where subsistence farming dominates, postharvest value addition is minimal, and grain production constitutes the largest share (Barrett et al., 2022). However, some commodities in Ethiopia are progressing from traditional to transitional and modern value chains. The dairy value chain can be considered transitional, as it is characterized by a growing processing and logistics sector and emerging pre-urban supply chains (which disfavor remote regions with high production potential as they need more advanced logistics). The coffee value chain in Ethiopia can be considered as a modern value chain – i.e., characterized by product standardization and quality control aimed at the global market/export (Ambler et al., 2023; Barrett et al., 2022).

Digital finance and agri-food value chains: Case studies from Tanzania

Agriculture is vital to Tanzania's economic framework, significantly contributing to the country's gross domestic product (GDP). According to the ministerial report on the agriculture sector, the agriculture sector contributed 26.3 percent to national GDP in 2024, an increase from 26.2 percent in the previous year (MOA, 2025). It employed an average of 61.4 percent of the population, a slight decrease from 65.6 percent in 2023. Furthermore, agriculture provides 65 percent of essential raw materials for industries (MOA, 2024). Specifically, crop production recorded a growth rate of 4.2 percent in 2023, up from 2.7 percent in 2022, contributing 16.1 percent to national GDP, an increase from 15 percent in 2022 (MOA, 2024). Agriculture continues to play a critical role in ensuring food security, meeting 128 percent of domestic food demand in 2024 (MOA, 2025). Exports of agricultural products also saw substantial growth, reaching approximately USD 3.54 billion in 2023/2024, a significant increase from about USD 1.2 billion in 2019/2020 (MOA, 2025).
Tanzania's agricultural transformation increasingly relies on modernizing agri-food value chains, especially those linking rural producers to growing urban and export markets, which are seeing a widening price gap. Value addition is essential for improving agricultural productivity and can take multiple forms. Hidayati et al. (2023) categorize value addition based on quality, safety, and market orientation, while emphasizing the importance of social factors such as job creation and food safety, alongside economic aspects such as sales, profitability, and environmental impacts. In agriculture, value addition involves transforming raw materials into finished products and by-products through processes such as drying, processing, packaging, and distribution. These activities enhance the market value of agricultural products, bolster economic growth through job creation, and contribute to food security. Consequently, maximizing value addition is crucial to fully leveraging the potential of Tanzania’s agricultural sector and translating it into measurable economic growth.

Scaling impact, enriching lives: HarvestPlus 2024 annual report

In 2024, the Global South continued to face food and nutrition insecurity driven by conflict, economic shocks, forced displacement, and climate extremes. Malnutrition persists at high levels, especially among children, while funding for solutions is declining. A fundamental rethink is needed about how to sustainably meet the food and nutrition needs of vulnerable populations. At HarvestPlus, we are acting urgently to scale up nutrients in diets in Asia, Africa, and South America. By the end of 2024, over 360 million people benefited from more nutritious diets through biofortified foods—a nine percent increase over last year. There is an additional reach of biofortified crops through organizations like International Potato Center (CIP), The Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, IITA, and others civil society actors which is heartening to note. We continued to empower women smallholder farmers along the value chain with knowledge, business skills, and opportunities. They are driving change by developing and marketing nutrientenriched foods within their communities, making their local food systems more resilient. Improving the nutrition of children and adolescents is a vital focus of our work. This year, we strengthened local supply chains and facilitated the inclusion of home-grown nutritious crops in school meal programs. As a result, over one million schoolchildren in Asia and Africa had access to meals enriched with biofortified foods. These efforts, combined with our delivery of nutrition education, are shaping healthier, more productive futures. A special thank you to Chef Sanjeev Kapoor for championing this work in India under our Nutri-Pathshala school meal model. Partnerships with CGIAR centers and national agricultural research and extension systems (NARES) enabled the release of 12 new biofortified crop varieties in five countries in 2024. These varieties provide farmers with competitive yields and more nutrients—adding diversity to the agricultural system while enriching the food system. By boosting supply and demand, we are making nutrient-rich foods more affordable, available, and accessible for the most vulnerable. Our delivery models scale innovations like biofortification and other nutritious crops and technologies rapidly and at low cost, ensuring they reach those who need them most and create impact at scale. In Pakistan, over 50 percent of wheat grain production is now zinc-enriched, funded primarily through public and private seed sector investments. In Nigeria, over 10 million people are consuming vitamin A maize on farms, with the private sector playing a major role in its scaleup. Going forward, these delivery models will be deployed through our scaling arm, HarvestPlus Solutions. We are encouraged by strong interest from the private sector in partnering with HarvestPlus Solutions. These partnerships are central to our long-term development work, particularly in the current funding environment. In 2024, we continued to transition HarvestPlus’ delivery and commercialization work to HarvestPlus Solutions and its network of partners. Sustainability is at the core of our approach, where local actors lead local solutions at the last mile. Our progress in 2024 is thanks to the collective dedication and passion of our team, partners, and donors. We have come a long way, but there’s still more to do. With continued support, we can deepen our impact, accelerate innovation, and nourish millions more.

Outcomes and impacts of CGIAR Research Initiatives in Kenya from 2022 to 2024

Kenya hosted one of CGIAR’s largest portfolios of research and innovation from 2022 to 2024, when pooled funding for the CGIAR was distributed through CGIAR research initiatives. This paper synthesizes CGIAR’s contributions to Kenyan agriculture in that period by triangulating two evidence streams: 148 outcomes logged in the CGIAR Performance and Results Management System (PRMS) and 56 impact assessments published as peer-reviewed journal articles. The analysis shows that CGIAR’s work has catalyzed improvements in seed systems, facilitated refinements in agronomic techniques, and encouraged the adoption of climate-resilient, sustainable farming practices and technologies. These contributions have paved the way for increasing crop productivity, while also supporting key livestock innovations that enhance food safety and bolster the resilience of pastoral communities. Robust local partnerships underpinned several policy shifts and helped align many outputs with the Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA). Yet, important gaps persist. Activities are mainly concentrated in easily reached areas rather than being spread across all agro-ecological zones, and outcomes are recorded in an isolated way, obscuring how separate successes add up to systemic change. Peer-reviewed impact evaluations focused on a different set of impact areas than outcomes reported in PRMS, rarely involve cross-center collaborations, and PRMS entries seldom document how evidence, policy uptake, and multidisciplinary collaboration link together. Looking ahead to the next CGIAR Science Programs phase, the paper urges broader engagement with under-served value chains, deeper cross-program synergies, and closer alignment with Kenya’s BETA and MTP IV priorities to foster inclusive, resilient agricultural growth.

Landscape complexity as determined by socioeconomic trends, climate change, and broad agricultural policies: A study on multifunctional landscapes

Food systems face dire challenges, including climate change, biodiversity loss, and resource overuse. To ensure their long-term sustainability and resilience they need urgent transformation, while continuing to support livelihoods and address rising food insecurity. The design and management of multifunctional agricultural landscapes offer a pathway to address these challenges; and improved understanding of landscape complexity, including a diverse mix of natural and cropland covers, can help advance achievement of multiple food system goals. As land managers and decision makers plan for the future of our landscapes, they need to recognize that powerful forces outside their control will have a strong influence on the final outcome. This study explores the interplay between global drivers—such as population growth, economic trends, climate change—and landscape complexity, using a modeling system linking a global agricultural economic model to a land-use model. Global trends are described, and Kenya serves as a case study, representing broader local dynamics. Results indicate that the majority of agricultural landscapes, globally and in Kenya, are projected to experience increased complexity by 2050, primarily through cropland expansion at the expense of natural habitats. However, there are a few instances where an expansion in cropland may be liked to a decrease in landscape complexity. Patterns also vary under alternative scenarios of agricultural development. Where greater complexity is achieved through policies that further concentrate agricultural land in some areas, this is mainly associated with net gains in natural habitats and a contraction of cropland. Overall, this preliminary research underscores the need for integrated landscape management and more comprehensive scenarios to inform sustainable land-use planning aligned with global food security and environmental objectives.

Scaling strategy for ShambaShield: Inclusive bundled finance for smallholders

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: May 2025

This report presents an overview of trends in prices, availability, and quality of key commodities in Sudan from February to May 2025. It covers cereals, vegetables, animal products, and other essential commodities such as cooking oil, sugar, agricultural inputs (fertilizers and seeds), fuels, and exchange rates. The analysis reveals notable spatial and temporal disparities in prices, availability, and quality across Sudan’s 18 states.

Sudan: Cereal markets and trade

Cereal production and markets, key components of Sudan’s food economy, have changed dramatically in the last decade due to conflict-related disruptions, as well as earlier changes in government policy. In western Sudan, particularly Darfur and surrounding regions, ongoing conflict has severely hindered agricultural activities, leading to a sharp decline in domestic cereal production. In contrast, other regions of Sudan have maintained relatively stable planting and harvesting activities, although marketing costs have risen substantially.

Brewing prosperity: An analysis of living income gaps among coffee smallholders in central Kenya

This study investigates the living income gap among coffee smallholders in central Kenya. It uses detailed survey data collected from coffee farmers organized in cooperatives and from coffee farm workers in Nyeri and Murang’a counties. Our analysis finds that coffee smallholders earn an average of only 109 KSh per day, just 35 percent of the 312 KSh living income benchmark, with the gap being particularly severe in Murang’a and among those with smaller landholdings. Sensitivity analyses show that enhancing prices paid to farmers and improving yields can partially reduce the income shortfall. For instance, doubling both parameters, especially when coupled with a 50 percent increase in farmers’ non-coffee income, lowers the incidence of households below the benchmark from more than 90 percent to about 67 percent. Yet, even under these relatively optimal conditions, the persistence of a significant gap underscores deep structural constraints in the local economy. Policy recommendations therefore call for a multidimensional approach that improves production efficiency, improves and stabilizes prices, promotes income diversification, and strengthens institutional support.

Cost effective options for inclusive agrifood system development in Tajikistan

This paper presents a model-based and data-driven analysis of alternative public investment options for Tajikistan’s agrifood system based on cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes. The study indicates that there is no single intervention that is the most cost-effective across all economic and social outcomes, including agrifood GDP growth, job creation, poverty reduction, lowered undernourishment, and improvement in diet quality. Irrigation infrastructure development, R&D in husbandry, and food loss and waste reduction are the most cost-effective investments in the combined economic outcomes, including growth and jobs. In contrast, irrigation, food loss and waste reduction, and seed systems are more effective in the combined social outcomes, including poverty, undernourishment, and diet. Considering time horizons, extension services are more effective in the short run, while irrigation and R&D deliver greater impact over time. Sector variations in the magnitude of effects are also observed among investment interventions. Overall, comparisons across development outcomes, sectoral focus, and timeframes reveal important synergies and trade-offs, underscoring the need for evidence-based tools to guide effective policy and investment decisions.

Tanzania: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present research findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Tanzania’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining rates of undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in extension and advisory services on livestock are shown to be the most cost-effective in expanding agrifood GDP and jobs. We also find that targeting SME processors generates stronger impacts on jobs, while extension services in agronomy are particularly cost-effective in fostering growth. Similarly, investing in extension services in agronomy and livestock, along with support to SME processors, yields significant gains in social outcomes, though with varying effects on poverty, hunger, and diet quality. However, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, highlighting potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options over time and when extreme production shocks occur.

Fragility and conflict: Addressing crises and building resilient food systems

More than ever before, hunger and malnutrition are concentrated in fragile and conflict-affected areas around the world. This chapter reflects on the evolution of food policy research conducted in these areas over the past 50 years and looks ahead at how policy solutions will need to evolve to address the critical challenges that fragility and conflict present for building resilient food systems.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Social protection programs: Building the evidence and defining priorities

Social protection programs to reduce poverty, food insecurity, and vulnerability in low- and middle-income countries have become increasingly prominent over the last 50 years. This chapter examines trends in the development of social protection programs and discusses the contribution of research to changing program approaches and social protection policies, highlighting IFPRI’s role in providing evidence and research.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Financing: From supporting agricultural production to transforming food systems

Theory and practice around the financing of agricultural and food production have evolved over the last 50 years amid changes in the role of agriculture in supporting economic growth and rural development, as well as perceptions of the most critical food and nutrition problems facing low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This chapter examines key financial challenges in LMIC agrifood systems and describes related policy research, as well as highlighting possible policy options to mobilize future financing for food systems transformation.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Environmental sustainability: The intersection of agrifood systems with ecosystem health

Climate change and biodiversity loss are arguably the greatest environmental challenges facing humanity today, and unsustainable agrifood systems are both a key cause and consequence of this environmental degradation. This chapter reviews how key environmental challenges in land, water, and energy systems intersect with agrifood systems and describes research contributions toward understanding and addressing these challenges over the past 50 years, as well as exploring future directions for environmental sustainability research.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Nutrition and diets: Research and action, looking back to move forward

The last half-century has seen major changes in the nature of malnutrition around the world, as well as in our understanding of its manifestations and key drivers, the people most affected, and the policies and programs developed to address it. This chapter reviews the evolution of nutrition in both policy and programming, with particular attention to agriculture, food systems, and multisectoral approaches, before looking to future directions for nutrition policy, programming, and research.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Gender research: Metrics and policies for greater equity and inclusion

Research on gender in development has evolved in parallel with the growing awareness of women’s role in economic development, the importance of gender relations both within and outside the household, and the recognition that women’s empowerment and gender equality are important goals in themselves. This chapter examines the evolution of gender research in the context of the development discourse on gender, focusing on agrifood systems, and identifies major challenges that future research should address.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Impact: Assessing the outcomes of IFPRI's research

Food policy research plays an essential role in helping to achieve food security for all, promote sustainable and healthy diets, build efficient markets, transform economies, and strengthen food systems institutions and governance. This chapter examines IFPRI’s impacts over the last 50 years through providing independent, high-quality evidence to inform policy options, programs, and investments.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Agricultural insurance: Policies and programs for reducing farmer risk

Farm households face many market and production risks to their livelihoods, food security, and economic well-being. Agricultural insurance is intended to help protect households from risk, but many agricultural risks are difficult to insure against and demand for insurance products remains low. This chapter examines how policy-oriented research has encouraged public investment, facilitated farmer use, and improved farmer welfare, and explores how new technologies and approaches are creating opportunities for increasing coverage.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Climate change: Understanding impacts on agrifood systems and evaluating policy options

Climate change is a major challenge of our time, with global and far-reaching effects on and from agriculture and food systems. This chapter reviews the evolution of research on climate change, food security, and food systems, reflecting on IFPRI’s major contributions to understanding and modeling climate change impacts and identifying promising policies and investments for mitigation and adaptation.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Food value chains: Transformations in low- and middle-income countries

Food value chains (FVCs) play a critical role in food systems by linking from agricultural input providers to farmers and producers to consumers. Over the past 50 years, the economic, demographic, and policy context of FVCs in low- and middle-income countries has changed enormously. This chapter discusses major phases and revolutions that shaped the growth, structure, and importance of FVCs to economies, employment, and diets, as well as policy research issues and contributions, and looks ahead to key trends that will continue to shape FVCs.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Tenure: Policy research on resources, rights, and equity

Secure tenure of land and natural resources is critical for ensuring equitable, efficient, and sustainable production of food and resilient rural livelihoods. This chapter examines foundational concepts and key lessons from research on tenure, including how different forms of tenure affect investment in production and resource management, and identifies priorities for further study, policy, and practice.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Agrifood systems: Transformation, structural change, and development

Agricultural transformation has long been critical to improving access to food, reducing poverty, and stimulating economic growth, but the role of agriculture in structural change and economic development is evolving in the modern context. This chapter explains the shifting paradigms in our understanding and approaches to agricultural transformation, which continue to redefine discourse, research, and action.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Agricultural extension services: From transfer of technology to facilitation for innovation

Agricultural extension and rural advisory services play a key role in the agrifood systems of many low- and middle-income countries by supporting farmers’ efforts to enhance productivity, strengthen resilience to shocks, and conserve the natural resource base on which these systems depend. This chapter applies IFPRI’s “best fit” conceptual framework to examine the global evolution of agricultural extension and rural advisory services over the past 50 years, as well as the shift from a “transfer of technology” approach to a more sophisticated “facilitation for innovation” paradigm.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Regional developments: Africa [in 2025 GFPR]

Africa’s food systems have undergone significant transformations over the past four decades, with notable improvements in agricultural productivity and food security, but persistent challenges remain. This chapter examines how Africa’s agrifood policy landscape has evolved over time in response to complex challenges, including food insecurity, climate change, and socioeconomic disparities. It explores how IFPRI and other international organizations have offered research-based solutions to Africa’s development challenges, as well as underscoring the necessity of systemic, inclusive, and evidence-based approaches to address the agrifood system challenges projected for 2050.

Book link: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108

Political economy and governance: Agriculture and food policy from local to global

Policymaking is shaped by evidence as well as by political economy and governance factors such as incentives, institutional structures, ideological biases, and power dynamics. Over the past several decades, these factors have intersected with significant trends affecting the international development policy landscape, with important implications for agriculture and food policy. This chapter examines the key areas of decentralization, agriculture and food policy reform processes, political economy of distribution, and state capacity, before looking ahead to the need to build effective and legitimate global institutions for food systems governance.

Informing CAADP 2026–2035: What a decade of IFPRI Research in Africa tells us

This policy brief distills insights from a decade of IFPRI’s research and engagement across 54 African countries, offering a strategic synthesis to inform the Kampala 2026–2035 implementation phase of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP). Drawing from almost 5,700 publications between 2015 and 2025, and using a combination of natural language processing (NLP), deep learning algorithms and rule-based approaches, the review maps key findings against CAADP’s six strategic objectives: (1) intensifying sustainable food production, agro-industrialization, and trade; (2) boosting investment and financing for agrifood systems transformation; (3) ensuring food and nutrition security; (4) advancing inclusivity and equitable livelihoods; (5) building resilient agrifood systems; and (6) strengthening agrifood systems governance. By aligning evidence with strategic priorities, this synthesis aims to sharpen the research and policy agenda needed to accelerate agricultural transformation, ensure food security, and deepen resilience across the continent. The review reveals areas of significant progress—such as advances innovative finance, nutrition policy, social protection design, gender equity, and market functioning—while also exposing enduring gaps in data, investment diagnostics, and imple mentation capacity. The brief is thus both a stocktaking and a springboard, harnessing what is known to guide the next phase of CAADP.

Determinants of household water and energy access and their impacts on food security and health outcomes in Sudan

This study investigates the determinants of access to safe water and reliable energy for households in Sudan using nationally representative data from a recent labor market survey. The results show that urbanization, education, and wealth significantly enhance the access households have to these essential services, while rural areas and less developed regions, particularly in the Darfur and Kordofan regions, face substantial challenges. Access to reliable energy correlates with better food security and health outcomes within households, and improved access to safe water significantly enhances the health of household members. Policy recommendations supported by these research results include targeted rural infrastructure investments, educational improvements, and regional interventions to address disparities in household access to safe water and reliable energy across Sudan.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: April 2025

This report presents an overview of trends in prices, availability, and quality of key commodities in Sudan during February, March, and April 2025. It covers cereals, vegetables, animal products, and essential goods such as cooking oil, sugar, agricultural inputs (fertilizers and seeds), fuels, and exchange rates. The analysis reveals notable spatial and temporal disparities in prices, availability, and quality across Sudan’s 18 states.
Cereal prices showed mixed patterns: wheat prices rose from February to March before declining in April, while sorghum and millet prices fluctuated. Wheat flour prices remained relatively stable. Spatial disparities were particularly evident for wheat and wheat flour. Traders consistently reported stable availability and quality for most cereals. Vegetable prices varied significantly. Tomato prices remained stable, potato prices were consistently higher than other vegetables, and onion prices declined steadily before rising slightly at the end of April. Spatial and temporal differences in prices were also prominent.
Meat prices continued to increase steadily, while fish prices fluctuated in line with availability. Egg prices rose gradually, while milk prices, after some initial fluctuations, declined steadily in March and April. Among agricultural inputs, wheat seed prices remained stable, whereas local sorghum seed prices rose consistently. Fertilizer prices fluctuated: urea prices experienced a modest increase fol lowed by a decline, while DAP prices rose sharply in April. Fuel prices demonstrated both temporal and spatial variability. Prices were notably higher in the parallel market, while diesel and petrol prices in the regular market were more stable, though regional differences persisted. Finally, the exchange rate analysis showed a continued premium in the parallel market, underscoring persistent foreign currency supply constraints.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: March 2025

Sudan’s market systems continue to face severe disruptions due to ongoing conflict, political instability, and economic disruptions. These challenges have led to volatile prices, limited availability of essential commodities, and rising food and fuel costs, especially in conflict-affected areas. Insecurity, infrastructure damage, and transport disruptions further exacerbate price disparities, making key goods increasingly unaffordable for vulnerable populations.
To monitor these dynamics, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) is implementing a nationwide market monitoring initiative covering 36 markets, two in each of Sudan’s 18 states. The initiative tracks prices, availability, and quality of essential commodities, monitors exchange rate movements, and gathers qualitative insights from market actors. Each month, data is collected in two rounds: the first during the first two weeks, and the second during the last two weeks. In each round, five merchants per market are interviewed using structured questionnaires and semi-structured interviews. This fortnightly approach enables timely and consistent tracking of market trends.

Unlocking agricultural efficiency: A stochastic frontier analysis of smallholder farmers in Rwanda

Agriculture is central to Rwanda's economy, supporting the livelihood of about 70% of the population and contributing significantly to GDP. Smallholder farmers face many production challenges such as limited use of modern inputs, low productivity, and vulnerability to climate change. Despite efforts like the Crop Intensification Program and the Smart Nkunganire System, which aim to en hance access to resources, agricultural productivity remains suboptimal for Rwanda smallholder farmers. This study seeks to identify specific sources of technical inefficiencies among smallholder farmers, focusing on the total value of farmer’s crop output. By using stochastic frontier analysis, a robust quantitative method for separating inefficiencies and random shocks, the study assessed
the overall technical efficiency of smallholder farmers in Rwanda and identified the key factors influencing crop output value. The analysis reveals that fertilizer use, pesticide application, labor, seed use, and land size are key drivers of crop output value. This research further indicates that farmers operate at only 45% of their potential productivity, given the same level of input and technology, highlighting substantial room for efficiency improvements to reach the optimal output value frontier. Furthermore, additional analysis emphasizes the critical role of socioeconomic factors in shaping technical efficiency. The findings highlight the need for targeted interventions to optimize resource utilization, streamline labor allocation and strengthen access to extension services and government initiatives aimed at boosting agricultural production value. These strategies can substantially improve technical efficiency, enabling farmers to achieve optimal crop output values and advancing Rwanda's agricultural development objectives.

Understanding the policy landscape for climate action in Kenya: Potential for integration of gender, nutrition, and improved impact monitoring

As in other low- and middle-income countries, more intense climate hazards and a warmer climate negatively impact agricultural production and livelihoods of smallholder farmers in Kenya, as well as household diets, national food security and gender equality. Improving climate policy and investments to address these negative impacts requires suitable policy and investment structures that are, moreover, adequately networked among each other and with equity and nutrition efforts for effective climate action. This paper explores the institutional arrangements of the climate change policy landscape in Kenya by mapping governmental and non-governmental actors involved in climate action and how connected and influential they are. Data for this paper was collected through two participatory workshops, one at the national level and one at the county level, using the Net-Map approach. This approach provides novel insights into the highly complex climate policy landscape in Kenya. Although several climate policies and actions are in place in the country, workshop participants called for better coordination across climate change actors and stronger implementation capacity. The recent structural changes in the donor landscape might be an entry point for better alignment and coordination among different actor groups, and specifically among different government actor groups. A lack of operational monitoring and evaluation systems was also considered an important impediment to assess to what extent women and other vulnerable groups are benefitting from climate action in the country.

Rwanda: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present research findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Rwanda’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple devel opment outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining rates of undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) processors are shown to be the most cost-effective at expanding agrifood GDP and employment, while extension and advisory services on livestock and climate emerge as the most efficient farmer-facing investments. However, crop ex tension services rank least in cost-effectiveness for economic and social outcomes. However, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, which highlights potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options
overtime and when extreme production shocks occur.

Ethiopia: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Ethiopia’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) traders and processors are shown to be the most cost effective at driving improvements in social outcomes, like poverty and undernourishment. They are also highly ranked in terms of expanding agrifood GDP and employment. Extension services for livestock, credit for farmers, R&D (agronomy), and safety nets also rank high. However, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, which highlights potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options overtime and when extreme production shocks occur.

Uganda: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Uganda’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining rates of undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their impact on environmental footprints, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) processors are shown to be the most cost-effective at expanding agrifood GDP and employment, while livestock extension services rank highest among the farmer-facing investments. Most R&D related interventions rank lowest in terms of cost-effectiveness at achieving economic and social outcomes. However, many cost-effec tive investments have relatively high environmental footprints, highlighting tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options over time and when ex treme production shocks occur.

Navigating Nigeria’s food system challenges in the face of inflation and reform

Main Messages:
1. Low-income households in both urban and rural areas are hardest hit by rising food prices. Post-reform (fuel subsidies removal and exchange rate liberalization) price shocks and persistent inflation have disproportionately affected poor urban and rural households, forcing them to reduce food consumption and dietary diversity. Malnutrition and food insecurity are on the rise, particularly among children and women-headed households, with sharpest impacts in conflict-affected areas.
2. Small-scale farmers are not benefiting proportionately from price increases. Despite surging food prices, small-scale farmers face escalating input costs, poor market access, and structural in-efficiencies that leave them with marginal gains far below the rate of inflation.
3. Trading networks maintain healthy margins, amplifying systemic inefficiencies. Traders and intermediaries dominate the food supply chain, passing on increased costs to consumers while pre-serving or even increasing their profit margins, highlighting inequities in the distribution of benefits along the value chain.
4. Recent economic reforms and external shocks exacerbate structural weaknesses. Economic reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies and exchange rate adjustments, have amplified existing challenges in the food system, including high transport costs, inadequate infrastructure, and fragmented markets.
5. Policy interventions should protect vulnerable groups and strengthen local food systems. Addressing these disparities requires targeted safety nets for consumers, support for small-scale farmers, and systemic investments to reduce inefficiencies in the value chain while promoting cli-mate-resilient food systems.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: February 2025

Sudan faces significant challenges due to prolonged conflicts, political instability, and economic disruptions. The ongoing conflict is disrupting market systems, exacerbating price volatility, and limiting the availability of essential commodities. Supply chain disruptions, insecurity, and infrastructure damage often restrict market access and contribute to rising food and fuel costs. In conflict-affected areas, transportation and security challenges intensify price disparities, making staple foods and key agricultural inputs increasingly unaffordable, especially for vulnerable populations.

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) is conducting a comprehensive market monitoring initiative across Sudan’s 18 states, tracking the prices and assessing the availability and quality of essential commodities, observing changes in exchange rates, and gathering qualitative insights from market actors. This report provides an overview of market trends in Sudan during February 2025. It will be updated monthly.

Ghana: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks

Achieving development goals is subject to economic uncertainties, yet policymaking rarely accounts for these risks. This Country Brief quantifies the risks facing Ghana’s economy and population, focusing on two primary sources:
1) External risks stemming from shocks in international commodity prices and foreign capital flows and
2) Domestic risks associated with production shocks in volatile sectors of the Ghanaian economy, such as primary agriculture and hydropower electricity generation, are often caused by extreme weather.
The significance of these risks is assessed based on the range of the shocks’ impacts on four main economic and development indicators: total GDP, private consumption, poverty rate, and prevalence of undernourishment.
The analysis uses data mining methods to simultaneously sample many shocks from historical data, con structing a comprehensive set of realistic shock scenarios for Ghana. A country-specific, economywide Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model then simulates the impacts of these shocks on both total and sector-specific economic outcomes, deriving changes in poverty and undernourishment for each shock scenario. Finally, machine learning techniques are applied to obtain metrics for the relative im portance of different risk factors.
The results suggest that Ghana’s trade-oriented economy is predominantly exposed to external risks, with fluctuations in world prices of key exports—particularly energy and metals—significantly influencing eco nomic activity and the country’s ability to finance imports. Poverty and undernourishment risks present a more complex picture, with a significant difference between urban and rural risk factors. Rural households, which are generally poorer than urban households and constitute the majority of the poor and undernourished population, are more exposed to domestic production volatility factors.
Understanding these economic risks is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on potential risk management strategies, such as promoting domestic productivity growth and diversifying economic activity away from high-risk sectors.

Uganda: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks

Achieving development goals is subject to economic uncertainties, yet policymaking rarely accounts for these risks. This Country Brief quantifies the risks facing Uganda’s economy and population, focusing on two primary sources:
1) External risks stemming from shocks in international commodity prices and foreign capital flows and
2) Domestic risks associated with production shocks in volatile sectors of the Uganda economy, such as primary agriculture and hydropower electricity generation, are often caused by extreme weather.
The significance of these risks is assessed based on the range of the shocks’ impacts on four main economic and development indicators: total GDP, private consumption, poverty rate, and prevalence of undernourishment.
The analysis uses data mining methods to simultaneously sample many shocks from historical data, con structing a comprehensive set of realistic shock scenarios for Uganda. A country-specific, economywide Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model then simulates the impacts of these shocks on both total and sector-specific economic outcomes, deriving changes in poverty and undernourishment for each shock scenario. Finally, machine learning techniques are applied to obtain metrics for the relative im portance of different risk factors.
The results suggest that domestic production volatility is the primary risk factor affecting GDP and poverty in Uganda, whereas world markets and domestic risks are equally important for household consumption and undernourishment. Individually, the most critical risk factors identified include production volatility in root crops, volatility in foreign capital flows, and volatility in fishery production, with the latter being particularly significant for rural low-income households.
Understanding these economic risks is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on potential risk management strategies, such as promoting domestic productivity growth and diversifying economic activity away from high-risk sectors.

IFPRI strategy for engagement with CAADP 2026-2035: Supporting implementation at regional, sub-regional, and national levels

This document outlines a comprehensive strategy for the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) to support implementation of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) 2026–2035. With its renewed focus on transforming Africa’s agrifood systems, CAADP provides a framework to address criti cal challenges captured in six strategic objectives that cover sustainable food production, agro-industrialization, investment mobilization, food and nutrition security, inclusivity, resilience, and governance. Building on its long history of support to the CAADP process, IFPRI’s engagement with CAADP 2026–2035 will focus on providing evi dence, strengthening policy processes, building capacity, and supporting investment mobilization to accelerate Africa’s agrifood system transformation. This strategy identifies specific entry points and pathways through which IFPRI can contribute to achieving CAADP’s six strategic objectives including: (1) research and knowledge genera tion; (2) technical assistance and policy support; (3) capacity development; (4) investment and financing support; (5) monitoring, evaluation, and learning; and (6) stakeholder engagement and convening. Working closely with other CGIAR centers and leveraging its country and regional offices, expertise, partnerships, and extensive expe rience in Africa, IFPRI aims to play a pivotal key role in enabling CAADP’s vision of agricultural transformation and inclusive growth, contributing to food security, economic development, and resilience across the continent. By working across regional, subregional, and national levels, IFPRI will engage with partners to help translate CAADP 2025’s ambitious goals into tangible outcomes for food security, resilience, and economic growth.

IFPRI-Sudan: Generating evidence-based solutions for strengthening humanitarian response and economic resilience

Sudan is experiencing one of the most severe humanitarian and economic crises in its modern history due to the ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Sudan is now suffering the largest humanitarian crisis in the world. The war has devastated livelihoods, displaced millions, and significantly weakened the country’s agrifood systems and broader economic structures. In response, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), along with its partners, has intensified its research and policy engagement in Sudan through the Sudan Strategy Support Program (SSSP), which was launched in 2022.

IFPRI’s work on Sudan is centered on addressing fragility, post-conflict recovery, resilience-building, and economic development. Its research and policy engagements focus on food security, economy-wide modeling, social protection, micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSME), and agricultural resilience as it works to provide critical evidence-based insights to support recovery efforts that will enable Sudan to regain peace and economic growth and stability. Through high-frequency data collection, impact evaluations, and policy dialogues, the SSSP team has continued to deliver data-driven solutions to inform humanitarian responses, economic revitalization, and development planning in Sudan. By collaborating with organizations such as the World Food Programme (WFP), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the World Bank, and other CGIAR centers and initiatives, IFPRI, through SSSP, has generated information to design effective interventions for conflict-affected populations and institutions working to rebuild Sudan’s economy.

Sudan Strategy Support Program (SSSP): Background and research output

The Sudan Strategy Support Program (SSSP), one of the country programs of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), commenced operations in May 2022 from the premises of the Arab Organization for Agricultural Development, its official host institution in Sudan. Established with funding from USAID, the United States Agency for International Development, the program has also formed partnerships or received support from a number of prominent organizations, including the CGIAR Initiative on Fragility, Conflict, and Migration, the CGIAR Initiative on NEXUS Gains, the United Nations Development Programme, the World Bank, the World Food Programme, the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas, and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement
Center (CIMMYT).

Papua New Guinea: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks

This study is part of a series of country briefs by IFPRI that leverages economywide models to deliver detailed risk assessments of key economic indicators. This initial analysis evaluates vulnerabilities across economic sectors and key population groups to answer two questions: (1) How vulnerable are national economy and population of Papua New Guinea (PNG) to world market and domestic production shocks? (2) What are the largest risks to PNG’s overall economic performance, private consumption, and reductions in poverty and undernourishment?

A synthesis of changes in women's empowerment in two portfolios of agricultural and livestock development projects

The intrinsic and instrumental value of gender equality and women’s empowerment is recognized by Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 5. Evidence on positive changes to women’s empowerment in agriculture and livestock interventions is expanding but is still relatively limited. Portfolios of projects focused on women’s empowerment through agriculture and livestock interventions can provide key insights across approaches and contexts.

In this working paper, we synthesize evaluations of the effects of interventions with empowerment objectives from two portfolios of agricultural development projects: the Livestock Vaccine Innovation Fund and the Cultivate Africa’s Future projects. These projects were implemented in 10 African countries and one South Asian country between 2017 and 2023, and funded by Canada’s International Development Research Centre (together with others). The projects used the project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (pro-WEAI) and the Women’s Empowerment in Livestock Index (WELI) tools to measure empowerment. The main objective of this study is to examine whether the agriculture- and livestock-related development projects impacted women’s empowerment at the portfolio level, to draw conclusions for the design and implementation of future project portfolios that aim to enhance gender equality and women’s empowerment.

We use both quantitative and qualitative data reported by the projects in the two portfolios. The quantitative analysis synthesizes impact estimates on WELI and pro-WEAI aggregate indices from projects using quasi-experimental or experimental designs, as well as percentage changes in these indices between baseline and endline assessments. The qualitative analysis examines patterns of commonalities or differences in how empowerment is conceptualized, how it evolves over the course of the projects, and how project participants perceive changes in their lived empowerment experience.

The quantitative results show mostly null findings, consistent with the emerging empowerment literature that suggests moving the needle on women’s empowerment requires intentional programming and appropriate levels of investment. We find the most promising results are from projects with explicit strategies to influence and transform gender norms.

The qualitative findings highlight the importance of capturing local conceptualizations of empowerment to contextualize empowerment and its quantitative assessments. The results show that resource ownership is a key indicator of empowerment for both women and men. Women, however, most value the ability to manage their finances independently while men most value being able to support other family members. Both women and men see the value of groups for their empowerment. Finally, women’s empowerment is tied to men’s support.

The results provide much needed information on the most effective approaches to support women’s empowerment, indicating that intentional and transformative approaches are most beneficial. Methodologically, the working paper shows (1) the importance of portfolio projects with shared goals and consistent measurement tools for women’s empowerment, (2) the complexity of combining the goals of research and those of development partners, (3) the value of using both quantitative and qualitative methods, and (4) the need for dedicated financial resources to support systematic impact assessments, meta-analysis and synthesis work.

Ethiopia: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks

This study is part of a series of country briefs by IFPRI that leverages economywide models to deliver detailed risk assessments of key economic indicators. This initial analysis evaluates vulnerabilities across economic sectors and key population groups to answer two questions: (1) How vulnerable are Ethiopia’s national economy and population to world market and domestic production shocks? (2) What are the largest risks to Ethiopia’s overall economic performance, private consumption, and reductions in poverty and undernourishment?

Egypt: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks

This study is part of a series of country briefs by IFPRI that leverages economywide models to deliver detailed risk assessments of key economic indicators. This initial analysis evaluates vulnerabilities across economic sectors and key population groups to answer two questions: (1) How vulnerable are Egypt’s national economy and population to world market and domestic production shocks? (2) What are the largest risks to Egypt’s overall economic performance, private consumption, and reductions in poverty and undernourishment?

Cost-Benefit Analysis for Climate Information Services: Training for County Directors of Meteorological Services (CDMS)

This report summarizes the findings of a 3-day training program for eighteen (18) Kenyan Meteorological Department County Directors of Meteorological Services (CDMS), on Cost Benefit Analysis for Climate Information Services (CBA for CIS), in Nakuru, Kenya on March 12-14th 2025. The program was jointly organized by the “Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa” (AICCRA) program and the Institute for Meteorological Training and Research (IMTR) at the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD). The training aimed at building the capacity of CDMS to think critically through ways to quantify and evaluate the monetary and non-monetary costs and benefits of the climate information services developed in their counties, with a strong focus on Gender Equity and Social Inclusion (GESI). Training materials built on an online training conducted by IFPRI, AICCRA and the CGIAR Gender Platform in November and December 2024, and were tailored to the CDMS context during a validation workshop held on March 10th and 11th, 2025.

Pathways Linking Climate Change to Livestock Production and Consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Protocol for a Systematic Review

The sub-Saharan African (SSA) region has a large livestock population but low productivity and animal source foods consumption which contributed to nutritional problems. Climate change further reduces productivity, impacting the livelihoods of the rural poor who largely rely on livestock. The agri-food system of SSA is characterized by small holder traditional family farms, poor technological uptake, poor infrastructure, poor veterinary services, and weak adaptability to climate effects. Owing to the unique challenges in climate change and agri-food system interface in SSA, contextualized evidence is very important to design interventions. We aimed to synthesize evidence on the pathways linking climate to livestock production and animal source food consumption in SSA context. Understanding the pathways linking climate change to livestock production and consumption in SSA is essential for formulating strategies that enhance food security, improve nutrition, and support rural livelihoods while mitigating and adapting to the impacts of climate change.

The incoming systematic review will be based on a previously developed systematic map. In the previous systematic map, we searched eight bibliographic databases, institutional website, conducted web-based search, and used citation snowballing to capture all relevant studies. The search was carried out in English and focused on SSA contexts wherever applicable. The search results were imported into Rayyan and screened for relevance based on title, abstract, and full text. At each stage of the screening process, the numbers of studies included and excluded were recorded. From the included studies of the systematic map, we will filter primary, empirical, quantitative articles conducted 2000 and onwards and use for this systematic review. We will extract the main findings of the articles along with key study characteristics and potential sources of heterogeneity. Included studies will be subjected to JBI’s quality appraisal checklists. A narrative synthesis of data from all studies included in the systematic review will be generated to describe the existing evidence along with study findings. Where data are suitably comparable, quantitative synthesis (meta-analysis) will be performed.