Publications

How agri-food value chain employment and compensation evolve with structural transformation

The traditional structural transformation narrative emphasizes inter-sectoral labor reallocation out of agriculture, ignoring whether workers exit agri-food value chains or merely migrate within them, from primary agricultural production to downstream food industries. We introduce a method to decompose multiregional input-output table data into industry-and-country-specific annual labor value added estimates by final consumer market segment – domestic food at home, domestic food away from home, or exports – and match with industry-specific employment data to estimate average worker compensation. Using data covering most of the global economy, 1993-2021, we report ten stylized facts that sharpen the traditional narrative about labor reallocation amid structural transformation. As incomes grow, labor exits primary production for downstream agri-food value chain segments that maintain a steady economywide employment share while offering jobs that pay better than farm work. Women disproportionately move from primary production to downstream, consumer-facing retail and food service, while men migrate to better-paying midstream jobs, increasing gender pay inequality within the value chain. Employment shifts are strongly associated with changes in national per capita income, but not with agricultural total factor productivity growth.

Do public works investments in watershed rehabilitation and small-scale irrigation improve nutrition and resilience? Evidence from bureau for humanitarian assistance interventions in support of Ethiopia’s productive safety net program

Between 2017 and 2021, the Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA) of the United States Agency for International Development supported public works in the areas of watershed rehabilitation and small-scale irrigation under Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP). The investments aimed to improve food security and nutrition and to increase the resilience capacities of households through improved natural resource systems and asset development. However, there is little evidence about how these water-related investments supported household food security, nutritional outcomes, and resilience. This study used a mixed-methods approach to fill some of these knowledge gaps. Econometric results show that households in BHA intervention areas had smaller food gaps, and this association is statistically significant. Similarly, households that adopted small-scale irrigation and water harvesting techniques on their own plots show significantly better nutritional outcomes than those that did not. The results further suggest that in general the households in BHA areas are more resilient than those in non-BHA woredas. However, higher resilience capacities are associated with agricultural water management on own plots rather than with public works in communal lands. Thus, if household security, nutrition and resilience are key goals of program interventions, then programs need to grow intentionality in developing assets, and particularly irrigation.

Real exchange rate misalignment and economic growth: An empirical analysis for Ethiopia

In both developing and developed economies, academic and policy discussions have consistently emphasized that achieving stable economic growth and maintaining internal and external balance require an exchange rate aligned with its long-term equilibrium value. This paper examines the impact of real exchange rate misalignment on Ethiopia's economic growth from 1980 to 2022. The study begins by estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate using the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) approach to calculate the misalignments. It then analyzes the effects of these misalignments on economic growth using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Hansen's (2000) threshold regression model. The VAR and Impulse Response Function (IRF) analyses reveal that real exchange rate misalignments have an immediate positive impact on economic growth, which diminishes between the eighth and sixteenth years and stabilizes as a permanent long-term effect. The threshold regression results indicate that undervaluation of the Ethiopian Birr enhances economic growth up to a 13.95% deviation from the equilibrium real exchange rate, while overvaluation supports growth up to a 7.15% threshold. Beyond these limits, misalignments hinder growth. The study underscores the importance of avoiding excessive deviations from the equilibrium exchange rate to sustain economic growth. Furthermore, it highlights the need for consistent macroeconomic policies to minimize the gap between the actual and equilibrium real exchange rates. These findings emphasize the critical role of exchange rate policy in promoting sustainable economic development in Ethiopia.

Assessing the gender dimensions in the true costs of food production in Kenya

Key takeaways:
Gender-based environmental and social external costs create substantial economic inefficiencies in the agricultural sector.
The gender wage gap contributes 12.8% to total external costs.
Women's limited access to resources leads to reduced productivity, with female farmers investing 36% less in inputs than their male counterparts.
Workplace harassment, which disproportionately affects women, accounts for 10.8% of total external costs.
Unequal land management practices (women managing smaller plots) and having restricted access to improved agricultural inputs create additional inefficiencies in resource allocation and production outcomes.

Baseline analysis for an impact evaluation of a home-grown school feeding program in Osun State, Nigeria to support smallholder farmers

Home-Grown School Feeding Programs (HGSFPs) are becoming important policy instruments to improve food security, nutrition, education, agricultural production, and local economic growth (Adeyanju et al., 2024; Abay et al., 2021; Sitali, 2021; Takeshima et al., 2018; Fernandes et al., 2016; Karisa and Ordho, 2014; WFP, 2013). While the potential of HGFSPs to tackle undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies is well documented (Alderman, Bundy, Gelli, 2024), their role in supporting local value chains and smallholder farmers remains an area of active inquiry. Following international trends and lessons, Nigeria started delivering HGSFP which includes utilizing locally sourced foods instead of imports (Dennis et al., 2021). These programs provide school meals using locally sourced food from smallholder farmers within the same community (Sumberg & Sabates-Wheeler, 2011). In 2004, Nigeria’s National HGSFP was piloted in 12 states, covering all six geopolitical zones. However, the national government abruptly halted the program, with Osun relaunching the program in 2012 using state-level funds. Osun State is currently the only Nigerian state that implements the program—and considered one of the more successful states for implementing it. Despite stoppages of the program, lessons learned from the pilot phase offered valuable operational and policy insights for implementing the National HGSFP in 2016, with the aim of using farm produce locally grown by smallholder farmers to provide children with nutritious mid-day meals on every school day (Adeyanju et al., 2024).

Don’t spend it all in one place: The medium-term effects of a national cash transfer program on household well-being

Cash transfer programs are often effective at increasing household consumption in their early years, but impacts become more nuanced over time as the use of transfers varies. This paper examines the medium-term effects of Egypt’s f lagship cash transfer program, Takaful, on several measures of household wellbeing using a regression discontinuity (RD) design. Findings reveal no significant impacts on household consumption (total, food or non-food), but notable decreases in monthly wage income that are comparable in magnitude to the average monthly transfer. Employment patterns are suggestive of a decrease in hours worked in formal labour among men. There are positive effects on asset ownership, particularly productive assets, indicating a shift toward longer-term investments. Reductions in informal debt suggest improved financial health among beneficiaries and increases in enrollment in primary and preparatory school suggest increased human capital investment as well. These results underscore the potential of cash transfer programs to foster economic stability and investments in the future, even in the absence of significant immediate consumption effects.

Income, employment, transfers, and household welfare dynamics before and during the conflict in Sudan

This study examines the impact in Sudan of conflict on employment and incomes and the effect of remittances and assistance received by a household on its food insecurity and food consumption. The analyses use data from the 2022 Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey (SLMPS), the 2023 Sudan Rural Household Survey (SRHS), and the 2024 Sudan Urban Household Survey (SUHS). Conflict is found to significantly increase the likelihood of employment and income loss, particularly among female-headed and displaced households. Receipt of remittances does not have a significant effect on the food security or food consumption of a household. In contrast, whether a household receives assistance is associated with higher food insecurity and lower food consumption, likely reflecting the targeting of assistance programs toward vulnerable households. However, due to the cross sectional nature of the data, causal relationships cannot be established. The results highlight the need for targeted interventions to support the food security and welfare of households affected by the current conflict in Sudan, particularly through efforts to stabilize employment and incomes.

Social assistance and adaptation to flooding in Bangladesh

As climate change exacerbates weather shocks, there is growing interest in understanding whether social assistance programs can support coping among poor rural households and whether program effects vary by gender. We assess whether a social assistance program – the Transfer Modality Research Initiative (TMRI) –influenced the effects of prior monsoon flooding on household consumption and adult diets in southern Bangladesh. TMRI provided cash or food transfers, with or without nutrition behavior change communication, from 2012-2014. Within the study sites and years, flooding was substantial but moderate. Our findings suggest that, without TMRI, a one-standard-deviation increase in lagged flooding led to households smoothing consumption by drawing down savings and reducing diet quality among both men and women. In contrast, among TMRI treatment households, lagged flooding did not reduce savings, and both men’s and women’s diet quality improved. Effects on diet quality appeared largely driven by legumes and by fruits and vegetables, and improvements appeared strongest among households receiving both transfers and behavior change communication. Results indicate that social assistance can help households cope with effects of moderate flooding in southern Bangladesh, protecting household savings and improving both men’s and women’s diets.

The cluster panacea? An evaluation of three interventions in shrimp value chains in Bangladesh

Clustering farming has often been proposed as an effective way to overcome the significant transactions costs faced by downstream buyers in interacting and negotiating with many small farmers, while making it easier for extension workers and governments to dispense advice, provide upstream services and inputs. In this study, we evaluate the impact of a set of three initiatives in Bangladesh, implemented by a government department, a private sector processing firm and a not-for-profit industrial advocacy body, all involving clustering contiguous shrimp farm ponds to enable group certification necessary for global market access. We implement a canonical difference-in-differences model using two rounds of surveys of a sample of over 1,222 farmers in 2023 and 2024 to assess the impacts on pond management practices, net profits and any unintended impacts on food security and dietary diversity. Our results suggest that the cluster interventions had impressive impacts on adoption of better farm management practices. However, these do not appear to translate into significant gains in net profits, perhaps because these interventions are still relatively new. Further, it appears that cluster farmers pay a penalty on account of a shift to more intensive cultivation, represented by a loss in species diversity and lower incomes from fish and vegetables. We find that there are no significant spillover effects as yet on shrimp farmers in the same village as the clusters. This study reflects critically on the efficacy of clustering that is presumed to enhance access to global markets.

Is it a myth? Market power among intermediaries in agri-food value chains

A common narrative about agri-food value chains (AVCs) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is that smallholders are paid substantially less for their agricultural products relative to the prices consumers pay for them. Some of that difference can be attributed to market channels—even in competitive and efficient agricultural markets, there are costs involved as agricultural products move from producers to consumers, including expenses for transportation, collection and aggregation, grading, processing, distribution, packaging, and retailing.

Advancing climate-smart financial solutions for smallholder farmers: Lessons from the CGIAR Climate Resilience Initiative

Smallholder farmers in low- and middle-income countries face climate-related risks that increase their income volatility and compromise their well-being. The CGIAR Initiative on Climate Resilience (ClimBeR) has developed and implemented a suite of innovative instruments aimed at transforming the climate adaptation capacity of smallholder farmers. This brief examines the potential of these bundled financial solutions in enhancing smallholder farmers' resilience to climate risks and documents ClimBeR's experience in implementing and scaling these instruments.

Determinants of household water and energy access and their impacts on food security and health outcomes in Sudan

This study investigates the determinants of access to safe water and reliable energy for households in Sudan using nationally representative data from a recent labor market survey. The results show that urbanization, education, and wealth significantly enhance the access households have to these essential services, while rural areas and less developed regions, particularly in the Darfur and Kordofan regions, face substantial challenges. Access to reliable energy correlates with better food security and health outcomes within households, and improved access to safe water significantly enhances the health of household members. Policy recommendations supported by these research results include targeted rural infrastructure investments, educational improvements, and regional interventions to address disparities in household access to safe water and reliable energy across Sudan.

Consumer response to food safety risk information

Unsafe food imposes significant health and productivity burdens on developing countries. We test the impact of a simple information intervention through which low-income urban consumers in Kenya were provided information about the likelihood that maize flour from the formal and informal sector violated a food safety standard. We find a 42 percent increase in the share of households consuming the similarly priced, lower risk formal sector flour type at follow-up in the treatment group relative to the control group, from a base of 33 percent. The intervention was equally effective for households earning below and above the sample median income level. Our results demonstrate the potential for low-cost interventions to increase the salience of food safety as a product attribute in informal markets or where regulatory enforcement is weak.

Effectiveness of aflatoxin biocontrol: Evidence from Kenyan smallholders under varied levels of technical support

Agricultural technologies shown to be highly effective in research trials often have a lower impact when utilized by smallholder farmers. Both heterogeneous returns and suboptimal application are believed to play a role in this efficacy gap. We provide experimental evidence on the impact of a biocontrol product for the control of aflatoxin, a carcinogenic fungal byproduct, as applied by smallholder farmers in Kenya. By varying the level of external support across farmers, we investigate the role of misapplication in the effectiveness gap. We find that the provision of biocontrol together with a one-time training on application reduces aflatoxin contamination in maize relative to a control group by 34 percent. Additional training to the farmers in the form of a call to remind them of the correct time of application in the crop cycle increases the reduction to 52 percent. Our findings indicate that farmers can achieve meaningful improvements in food safety using biocontrol even with minimal training on its use and that additional support at the recommended time of application can strengthen its impact.

IFPRI Nexus SAMs: Annual Release Note 2024

The Nexus Project is pleased to provide an update on the Nexus Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) developed and released by IFPRI in collaboration with national statistical agencies and research institutions in 2024. This Annual Release Note provides a brief overview of SAMs and the Nexus Project. It serves as a useful one-stop shop for obtaining links to the latest versions of all Nexus SAMs.
For more information or questions, please email IFPRI-Nexus@cgiar.or

Impact of risk-contingent credit and traditional credit on smallholders’ agricultural investment and productivity: Experimental evidence from Kenya

We use a multiyear, multi-arm randomized controlled trial implemented among 1,053 smallholders in Kenya to evaluate ex-ante investment and ex-post productivity and welfare benefits of two competing lending models: risk-contingent credit (RCC)—which embeds crop insurance with a loan product—and traditional credit (TC). We rely on local average treatment effects to demonstrate the effects of these alternative credit products on borrowers but report the intention-to-treat effects for their broader policy significance. Uptake of RCC increased treated households’ farm investments—specifically, adoption of chemical fertilizers—by up to 14 percent along the extensive margins and by more than 100 percent along the intensive margins, while TC’s effects were less in both magnitude and statistical significance. Neither type of credit product had a significant effect on the overall area cultivated under maize, hence enhancing agricultural intensification but not extensification. Ex-post, neither type of credit product had a strong direct effect on households’ productivity. We conclude that access to credit has potential to increase investment and productivity among smallholders, although improved productivity needs better measurement and extended intervention to be realized. To scale the potential effects of credit, derisking access to credit should be considered to expand access to credit.

Supporting Sudan’s entrepreneurs in crisis: Policy insights from micro, small, and medium enterprises

The current conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan, which began in April 2023, has had a profound impact on the nation’s micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSME). Such enterprises are a vital part of the country’s economy and important to the food security of many Sudanese households. All MSMEs, including those in the agrifood sector, have faced severe disruptions due to the instability, rising inflation, and supply chain breakdowns brought on by the conflict. These challenges have destabilized MSMEs, affecting their financial viability, operations, and capacity to support local food security and provide employment. Agrifood MSMEs, in particular, serve as critical intermediaries between large firms and smallholders, supporting local economies and national food systems.2 The conflict has disrupted every aspect of agrifood value chains in Sudan, from input supplies and production to market accessibility. Agrifood entrepreneurs—especially women—have borne some of the heaviest impacts. Female entrepreneurs already face significant gender-based barriers in operating successful businesses, such as more limited access to finance, restrictive social norms, and mobility constraints. In this period of conflict, they now confront even greater
challenges.

Postharvest packaging and marketing innovation adoption in Nigeria: The case of plastic crate

Postharvest loss of horticultural crops is very high in most developing countries, and most of the loss occurs during production, harvesting, and transporting stages. Postharvest technologies (PHTs) are therefore important to reducing food loss and wastage and critical to both national and international food security agendas. This report provides the status quo of postharvest innovation adoption in Nigeria by taking the case of horticultural growers’ adoption of postharvest packaging and transportation innovation such as returnable plastic crates. Primary data were collected from 1704 farmers using a multistage random sampling technique. Our findings reveal low adoption of PHT, with only 8% of rainfed and 14% of irrigation farmers utilizing PHT for packaging and transporting perishable agricultural products. Growers who adopted PHT received a market price that was twice as high as those who did not, encouraging sustained adoption of PHT by growers. The results prove that the high costs and limited availability in rural areas, rather than awareness gap, discourage farmers from using PHT. The research suggests interventions to address these challenges by utilizing flexible distribution strategies, such as engaging small and micro enterprises to offer rental PHT services in rural areas.

What’s holding back private sector agricultural insurance?

Much of the recent literature on agricultural insurance focuses on ways to increase farmers’ demand for insurance, but this paper revisits the supply side of the insurance market. To better understand the conditions under which private insurance has been successful or failed the paper draws on the available empirical and theoretical literature, on case studies, and interviews with selected insurers. While there are many examples of innovative solutions to some of the product design, marketing and delivery challenges facing agricultural insurance, our review suggests that private unsubsidized insurance can only play a limited role in terms of the overall risk management needs of agriculture. Fundamentally, agricultural insurance can only address certain types of risks, and these are often not the most important from the farmers’ perspective. For most farmers insurance is best seen as part of a broader risk management approach, and its relevance for commercial farmers linked to value chains can be quite different from that for more subsistence-oriented smallholders. Commercial farmers generally have the most options for managing risk and may benefit most from specific types of indemnity or index-based products to protect specific agricultural investments and there are many examples of insurers meeting this need on an affordable and unsubsidized basis. On the other hand, subsistence-oriented farmers, especially poor and vulnerable ones, need insurance that can help protect their household income and consumption from negative shocks. This kind of insurance is expensive and difficult to supply without subsidies and requires strong public sector support. Even if targeted in this way, private unsubsidized insurance will only thrive given a supporting policy environment and, to keep costs down and improve the relevance and delivery of its products, insurers need to take full advantage of new and emerging digital and remote sensing innovations, and where possible, partner with intermediaries who can bundle their insurance with credit, farm inputs and other services.

Evolution of food insecurity in Sudan during the ongoing conflict

Sudan's food security landscape has been dramatically impacted by the ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which began in April 2023. The conflict has exacerbated an already precarious situation for the country, characterized by macroeconomic instability, climate shocks, and persistent discord and tension. This policy note analyzes the evolution of food insecurity in Sudan during the conflict, drawing from analysis of four nationwide surveys conducted before and during the conflict, namely the 2022 Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey (SLMPS),1 the 2023/24 Sudan Rural Household Survey,2 the 2024 Sudan Urban Survey,3 and the recently completed 2024 Rural Household Survey. The findings highlight significant deterioration in food security across rural and urban areas of Sudan. Based on insights from these surveys, policy recommendations are offered to address food insecurity in the context of the conflict in Sudan. Before the outbreak of the conflict in 2023, Sudan was already facing significant food insecurity challenges. The 2022 SLMPS, a nationwide survey conducted in person, revealed that approximately 49 percent of Sudanese households were food secure. Factors such as high inflation, climate-related shocks, and underinvestment in agriculture have led to many households facing problems accessing sufficient healthy food, adversely affecting their food consumption. The reliance of Sudan on imports for a significant share of food consumption, coupled with a devaluating Sudanese Pound and rising inflation, strained household purchasing power, further limiting access to essential foodstuffs. Food insecurity was uneven across the country. Rural areas, where consumption of own agricultural production is essential for household food security, had higher food insecurity than urban areas. Some regions were particularly vulnerable to food insecurity, including the Darfur and Kordofan regions and Blue Nile states. Localized conflicts in these areas disrupted agricultural activities and displaced communities even before broader-scale fighting between SAF and RSF began.

Rainy day funds? How men and women adapt to heavy rainfall shocks and the role of cash transfers in Mali

Weather shocks can affect men and women differently, due in part to differences in their adaptive capacities. We merge weather data with survey data from a randomized control trial of a cash transfer program in Mali to describe how men and women cope with weather shocks and the role of cash transfer programs in supporting adaptive responses. We find that heavy rainfall reduces household’s consumption but that the cash transfer program mitigates these impacts, primarily by allowing households to draw down both men’s and women’s savings, increasing the value of livestock and farming assets held jointly by men and women, and facilitating a reallocation of men’s and women’s labor to livestock production and women’s labor to domestic work.

Rethinking the measurement of resilience for food and nutrition security

This paper presents a novel framework for assessing resilience in food systems, focusing on three dynamic metrics: return time, magnitude of deviation, and recovery rate. Traditional resilience measures have often relied on static and composite indicators, creating gaps in understanding the complex responses of food systems to shocks. This framework addresses these gaps, providing a more nuanced assessment of resilience in agrifood sectors. It highlights how integrating dynamic metrics enables policymakers to design tailored, sector-specific interventions that enhance resilience. Recognizing the data intensity required for these metrics, the paper indicates how emerging satellite imagery and advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) can make data collection both high-frequency and location-specific, at a fraction of the cost of traditional methods. These technologies facilitate a scalable approach to resilience measurement, enhancing the accuracy, timeliness, and accessibility of resilience data. The paper concludes with recommendations for refining resilience tools and adapting policy frameworks to better respond to the increasing challenges faced by food systems across the world.

Youth in agriculture: A PhotoVoice perspective to envision their engagement in agricultural practices

This report examines youth engagement in agriculture, focusing on agroecology in Mandla district, Madhya Pradesh. Despite agriculture's critical role in livelihoods, rural youth show declining interest due to perceptions of low profitability, high risks, and systemic barriers like limited land ownership and inadequate institutional support. Using the PhotoVoice methodology, the study captures youth aspirations, challenges, and perceptions of sustainable farming practices.
Findings indicate that while young women and men value agroecology's benefits—improved soil health, sustainability, and income—they face significant hurdles, including resource scarcity, water shortages, and financial constraints. Many envision "dream farms" with modern equipment and sustainable practices but lack the infrastructure and support to realize these goals. Youth also report limited agency in decision-making and minimal participation in collectives, further alienating them from the sector.
To address these challenges, the report calls for creating collectives for young women and men for collaboration, enhancing capacity-building programs, and integrating agroecology into education and policy frameworks. Strengthening institutional support, providing financial and technical assistance, and leveraging NGO partnerships are recommended to bridge gaps and empower youth as leaders in agroecological transitions. These actions are essential for fostering a resilient and sustainable agricultural future driven by young farmers.

A mixed-method study on gender and intrahousehold differences in food consumption from Khatlon Province, Tajikistan

Tajikistan faces food insecurity and multiple forms of malnutrition in its population, with women particularly at risk. Social norms related to gender and intrahousehold hierarchy are pervasive and are commonly upheld in household roles. Yet, how gender may impact dietary intake in Tajikistan remains to be studied. Understanding this mechanism is critical to develop adequate strategies for effective, equitable progress in mitigating malnutrition and food insecurity. mixed-methods study was conducted to assess the extent and identify the drivers of gender-based and intrahousehold differences in dietary intake in Khatlon Province, Tajikistan. Predictors of food intake and dietary diversity were statistically assessed using quantitative survey data from 1,704 individuals collected in winter- and springtime 2023. Qualitative data from 12 focus group discussions, 20 individual interviews, and 22 Photovoice interviews collected in winter- and springtime 2024 was analyzed using reflexive thematic analysis to further ascertain and understand these drivers. We find gender differences in dietary diversity, with women reporting lower dietary diversity than men, even when comparing men and women living in the same household. Among women, there are significant differences in dietary diversity based on their role in the household. Gendered social norms and intrahousehold power relations influence food acquisition, preparation, distribution, and consumption. Men, particularly household heads, and children tend to be prioritized over women in consuming food products that are deemed more nutritious (e.g., meat). Women adapt their food intake to meet the expectations and needs of other household members. This study highlights the importance of considering household dynamics and gender roles when creating programs and policies aiming to equitably address food and nutrition insecurity and malnutrition. The findings suggest that mitigating malnutrition in Tajikistan will necessitate gender equity-focused social behavior change interventions targeting women and men across different generations.

Enhancing experiential learning through community debriefs: A reflection from facilitators of experiential games

Community debriefing is a structured process that facilitates the sharing of experience and insights about implemented interventions among community members. It enables participants to connect lessons learned in an activity, experience, or program to the outside world and to discuss the relevance of an activity to the challenges faced by the community. Thus, social learning is reinforced when debriefing sessions are conducted at the community level. Here, we are interested in debriefings conducted after playing experiential learning games as a learning space beyond the game itself.

The changing demographics in food systems and implications for future youth engagement in Rwanda

Food systems are critically important for food security and employment in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Moreover, expansion of nonfarm components of food systems (FS) reinforces efforts to transition out of agriculture. FS, particularly off-farm segments of food value chains, must grow rapidly to guarantee food and nutrition security for growing populations and to provide the quantity and variety of food demanded as a result of increases in urbanization and income, as well as to accommodate accompanying technological and other changes. The impact, inevitability, and amenability to policy interventions of these factors and the extent of FS transformation needed differs across countries. Future FS also face several emerging challenges. Employment and job creation are among the areas that are significantly affected by FS transformation. Demographic changes that accompany expanding FS employment are also critical for gender equity and youth inclusion. The extent, speed, and complementarity of the FS transformation and increased employment varies across countries. However, there is currently no system in place to monitor the extent of FS transformation or its interactions with other aspects of the economy, such as employment. This study of Rwanda uses secondary data from the International Labour Organization (ILO) (2023), World Bank (2023), and Integrated Household Living Conditions Survey (EICV) (2023) to investigate demographic trends in overall FS employment and who is and is not engaging in FS; and to document sectoral and overall economic growth, population and demographic changes, and urbanization trends—all which influence and are influenced by FS growth. The study contributes to the literature by testing the predicted patterns of employment growth and inclusiveness in agrifood systems, and by pointing to the nodes of employment in FS where gender- and age-based inequities exist, thereby facilitating policymaking and interventions to ameliorate the problems. In addition, tracking performance in employment-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in Rwanda contributes to our understanding of the progress made in SSA toward inclusiveness, efficiency, and poverty reduction, particularly progress that benefits women and the youth. Rwanda’s economy grew remarkably during the two decades covered in the study (2001–2022). Agriculture contributed significantly to gross domestic product (GDP) as well as to overall and FS employment. Per capita income more than doubled, although it still is about half the average GDP per capita of SSA. The population, threequarters of whom are under 35 years of age, increased by 70% during the period. There have been great strides in education, particularly for girls and women. However, urbanization has been slow, and half of the country’s urban residents live in the capital city. The unemployment rate in Rwanda has been twice the SSA average and has generally been increasing. More than half of the workers are employed in agriculture, although this share declined considerably during the period. Farming contributes significantly to FS employment. However, the share of overall FS employment declined during the period, due to a decline in farming employment accompanied by stagnant employment in non-farm FS. Relative to men, women’s overall labor force participation rate is considerably lower and their unemployment rate higher. A larger share of women work in low-skill jobs and this gap increased during the period; a relatively larger share of women are employed in FS, but a smaller share work in the nonfarm component of FS and this gender gap widened. Similarly, relative to mature adults, youth are less advantaged. The labor force participation rate of youth is considerably lower, and the rate of unemployment is higher and increasing relatively faster among youth. However, differences in FS employment among youth and mature adults were considerably lower and shown no clear trend. Findings of this study point to several short- and long-run policy implications.

Soft-skills training, locus of control, and labor market outcomes of youth: Evidence from a randomized intervention in Kenya

Africa has the youngest population in the world, but African economies are not creating enough high-productivity jobs, and rates of youth unemployment thus remain a major challenge in the region. Several supply- and demand-side factors may explain these trends, including skill gaps. While traditional technical and vocational education and training (TVET) centers address important gaps in hard (technical) skills, soft-skills trainings have not yet received sufficient attention in the African context. We evaluate the overall and heterogenous impact of a gender-sensitive soft-skills training that aimed to address youths’ unique interests, preferences, and labor market constraints in Kenya. We also examine whether the presence (or absence) of complementary noncognitive skills, such as locus-of-control skills, moderates the impact of the soft-skills training. We use a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness of a soft-skills training to support young men and women in making the transition from school to work in Kenya. Our evaluation combines baseline, midline, and endline data to understand the dynamics of labor market transitions for youth. We find that although the soft-skills training prepared youth for the labor market by improving their willingness, expectations, and preparedness for jobs, the impact of the soft-skills training on ultimate labor market outcomes varies across individuals with varying psychological traits. The training improved labor market outcomes for those with internal locus of control but not for individuals who lack these attributes. One standard deviation increase in (internal) locus of control is associated with a 5 percentage-point increase in the impact of the soft-skills training on probability of participation in income-earning activities. We also find that returns to locus of control and the soft-skills training are higher for females than males.

Financial inclusion, agricultural inputs use, and household food security evidence from Nigeria

This paper examines the effects of financial inclusion on adoption and intensity of use of agricultural inputs and household welfare indicators using data from the nationally representative Nigerian LSMS wave-3 (2015/2016) survey. For this, we constructed a financial inclusion index from four formal financial services access indicators (bank account, access to credit, insurance coverage, and digital transaction) using multiple correspondence analysis (MCA). We used Cragg’s two-step hurdle, instrumental variables for binary response variables, and a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) models in the econometric analysis. Results show that households with access to formal financial services are more likely to adopt agricultural inputs and to apply these more intensively. These same households are less likely to experience severe food insecurity and are more likely to consume diverse food items. We also find that these effects are less for female farmers regardless of formal financial inclusion, suggesting that they may bear more non-financial constraints than their male counterparts. The results suggest a need for targeted interventions to increase access to formal financial services of farm households and gender-responsive interventions to address the differential constraints women farmers face.

Resilient Cities urban nutrition profile: Ethiopia

Key Messages
-Undernutrition has declined over time, but stunting still affects 40 percent of rural children and 25 percent of urban children.
-Micronutrient deficiencies—especially deficiencies in folate, zinc and Vitamin D—are a critical concern, particularly for urban women and girls.
-Dietary quality is low in both rural and urban areas: while urban diets are moderately more diverse than rural ones, rising consumption of unhealthy foods is more of a concern than in rural areas at this time.
-The cost of consuming a healthy diet in Ethiopia increased from US $2.83 to $3.72 from 2017—2022, and over half of the population is currently unable to afford a healthy diet.
-Concurrent conflict and climate shocks are causing acute nutritional needs in some regions. Humanitarian food aid is key to reducing food insecurity and should be provided to households without access to land who rely on income for food purchases,
such as those in urban areas.
-Overweight and obesity are still uncommon among young children but are increasing rapidly among urban women. In urban areas, 20 percent of women are overweight, compared to 4 percent in rural areas. The rise in urban overweight is driven by lifestyle
changes associated with urbanization and unhealthy food environments, which are associated with poor quality diets and reduced physical activity.
-Overnutrition and diet-related noncommunicable diseases are especially prevalent in Addis Ababa.
-Food safety is a challenge, and evidence is lacking on how to improve vendor safety knowledge and practices to protect consumer health.
-National social protection programs often fail to reach the urban poor and lack explicit nutrition interventions in urban areas.
-There is a need to design and test urban nutrition interventions that address both over and undernutrition (such as double-duty actions) in urban populations.

Adapting to climate change: The case of saline tolerant seed varieties in coastal Bangladesh

Salt water intrusion and rising soil salnity are threatening food and livelihood security of paddy farmers in coastal Bangladesh. Visible manifestations of these challenges are degraded soils and chronic decline in tradtional farming, as it is becoming an increasingly infeasible means of livelihood. Promoting saline-tolerant paddy varieties (STRV) has been one of the major focuses of the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI) and the attention to the problem has been intensified in recent years through a partnerhsip with a consortium of CGIAR centers. Howewer, robust empirical analysis has hitherto been limited. Using farm level data, this paper analyzes the determinants and impacts of the adopting these new varieties. We use a multi-variate logit model to identify the constraints to adoption, and Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and Endogeneous Switching Regression methods to assess the impacts on yeilds, and net income of the paddy farmers. Results show that adopting saline-tolerant rice varieties raises crop yield by an average of 1 to 2 tons per hectare, equivalent to a net income increase of about US$100 per hectare of cultivated land. Yet, adoption rates remain low due to several institutional constraints and perhaps a lack of nudging farmers in the scaling up strategies. Robustness of the results are tested, and the implications are discussed.

Medium-scale livestock farms in Asia’s rapidly transforming food systems

Academic and policy debates on agriculture emphasize a bimodal typology of ‘small-scale’ and ‘large-scale’ farms. In this article, we draw attention to the role and distinct characteristics of medium-scale monogastric livestock farms in the Global South, drawing on an empirically grounded typology of scale that incorporates three linked components: (1) Social and economic organization of production; (2) Technological choice and environmental impacts, and; (3) Food system linkages and spillovers. We review national livestock sector policy documents from three Asian countries - Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Vietnam - with reference to the typology, and compare assumptions embedded in the policies with the characteristics of farm scale revealed by the typology. Our analysis indicates that current policy goals are not well aligned with the characteristics of medium-scale livestock farming in the region. This disconnect presents a missed opportunity to enhance the livestock sector’s contributions to rural economies, nutrition security, food safety, and environmental performance. We conclude with examples of how policies could maintain and enhance medium-scale monogastriclivestock farms’ contributions to sustainable intensification, public health, and livelihoods.

Gendered drivers of varietal turnover: A qualitative assessment for improved teff and wheat varieties in Ethiopia

Limited adoption of agricultural technologies such as improved crop varieties has been a challenge for increasing crop productivity in low-income countries. We study drivers of varietal turnover by conducting gender-disaggregated focus group discussions and semi-structured interviews with teff and wheat farmers, and key informant interviews with public and private seed actors, in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. We find that attributes specific not only to production and sales, but also to processing and consumption (such as color, texture, moisture, and taste) are key drivers for varietal uptake among both men and women farmers. In relative terms, processing and consumption attributes are more important to women than men farmers. Gender and social status are usually linked to access to resources (such as inputs or information about newly released varieties) that could become an important driver of uptake. Women’s and men’s prior experiences with improved varieties also influence adoption. For instance, farmers that experience crop losses when using new varieties during a drought reportedly become more risk averse in future decisions to adopt new improved varieties. Overall, the findings imply the need to adopt seed development and marketing strategies that pay close attention to the preferences of both producers and consumers, such as considering the importance of consumption attributes (e.g., not altering local recipes) and encouraging farmers to first experiment with new varieties on parts of their plots before adopting at scale or providing a risk management tool (e.g., insurance) that can protect farmers from potential risks associated with new technologies.

Assessing the role of food MSMEs in providing employment for women and youth in Ethiopia

This paper analyzes the employment characteristics of food micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), using survey data collected from 1,686 food vendors in Addis Ababa and Butajira, Ethiopia. The data suggest that 74 percent of the enterprises were formal or had a tax identification number. The average number of workers across enterprises was 2.3, which varies between 1.2 as in the case of street sellers and 5.3 as in the case of restaurants. Among enterprises with an additional worker besides the owner, only about 32 percent of them had part-time workers. The share of youth in part-time and full-time employment was 43 percent and 28 percent, respectively. Adults especially women constituted the majority of both full-time and part-time workers. More than 53 percent of the enterprises were owned and operated by women, but the significant majority of them were one-person enterprises, suggesting that women-owned enterprises are less likely to create additional jobs. In fact, results from the logistic regressions suggest that the odds of women-owned enterprises employing anyone were between 0.53 to 0.62 times the odds of men-owned enterprises. Only 17 percent of the enterprises had outstanding loans at the time of the survey. However, the relationship between loan uptake status and the number of workers was not strong. Results also indicate that the number of workers was positively and significantly associated with the size of enterprise revenue but the relationship with profitability was not strong, possibly because the size of profits per worker was quite low. To put this in perspective, the size of profits per worker (for example, for street sellers who are mostly self-employed and rarely take their wages into account during cost calculations) was less than the cost of a healthy diet. Overall, while the food MSMEs in the study sites may have the potential to deliver food at lower cost and contribute to gender and social inclusion through self-employment, the scope of food MSMEs, especially those run by women, to generate additional employment appears to be limited.

Can transfers and complementary nutrition programming reduce intimate partner violence four years post-program? Experimental evidence from Bangladesh

Little is known about whether reductions in intimate partner violence (IPV) from transfer programs persist. Using a randomized controlled trial, we find that women in rural Bangladesh who received cash transfers with complementary nutrition programming (including group-based training, home visits, and community meetings) experienced sustained reductions in IPV four years after the program ended. Neither cash transfers alone, nor food transfers with or without complementary nutrition programming, showed sustained impacts on IPV. Evidence suggests that cash with complementary nutrition programming sustained IPV reductions through persistent increases in women’s bargaining power, costs to men of perpetrating violence, and men’s emotional well-being.

Cooling technologies and long-term efficiency improvement of horticulture market agents: Panel data evidence from solar-powered cold-storage intervention in Nigeria

Modern cooling technologies, including cold storage, have been considered one of the critical tools to address increasingly complex challenges in agrifood systems in developing countries, including poverty, economic growth, food loss and waste, food and nutrition security, and environmental sustainability (e.g., IFPRI 2020; Kashyap & Agarwal 2020). Cold storage can minimize most human pathogens, ensuring enhanced food safety (Uçar & Özçelik 2013; Kopp & Mishra 2022) and contribute to increased consumption of micronutrient-rich horticulture crops (Schreinemachers et al. 2018). Cooling technologies can also improve market functions by enabling higher and more stable prices received by suppliers (Rakshit 2011; Schreinemachers et al. 2018) and reducing losses (Allen & de Brauw 2018). Cooling-chain development has been a significant part of food system transformation outside Africa South of the Sahara (SSA) (IFPRI 2020). Similar technologies may become more broadly relevant in SSA in the near future (Tschirley et al. 2015). Traditionally, the use of cold storage has been constrained by high energy consumption and adverse environmental effects like carbon emissions (Pueyo et al. 2020; Steyn et al. 2016). However, a growing set of potential energy solutions are being proposed and introduced on a pilot basis, including solar power (Takeshima et al. 2023).

Impact evaluation of the economic inclusion programme in Kenya: Baseline report for cohort 2

Graduation and economic inclusion programs complement cash or food transfers with multisectoral investments in asset building, income generation, skill training, and access to financial services and markets to strengthen resilience and opportunity for households who are poor (Andrews et al., 2021). Compared to classic social assistance programs that offer regular cash or food transfers to ensure minimum consumption levels, these programs aim to enable beneficiaries to invest in assets and skills that can make them more productive. Following promising results from initial studies on multiple economic Photo Credit: Peter Lowe / CIMMYT and social outcomes (e.g., Banerjee et al., 2015; Bandiera et al., 2017; Banerjee et al., 2021), these graduation and economic inclusion programs are increasingly being taken up by governments to complement their national social assistance programs. In 2019 the Government of Kenya’s (GoK) State Department of Social Protection and Senior Citizen Affairs, Directorate of Social Development, initiated the Kenya Social and Economic Inclusion Programme (KSEIP). The KSEIP is designed to complement and build on the flagship National Safety Net Programme (NSNP) and target those being served by it, moving beyond cash transfers to an integrated Social Protection system to enhance social and economic inclusion services and shock-responsive safety nets for poor and vulnerable households. The KSEIP is expected to contribute towards Kenya’s Vision 2030 and the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals.

Challenges and opportunities in Nigeria’s home-grown school feeding program: Toward a more efficient and sustainable model

This paper examines Nigeria’s Home-Grown School Feeding Program (HGSFP), an initiative that enhances traditional school feeding by supporting local agriculture. Operating across federal, state, and school levels, the HGSFP sources meals from local smallholder farmers, aiming to stimulate rural economies and improve food security. The program creates demand for locally grown food, encouraging farmers to increase productivity and adopt sustainable practices while providing them with stable income.

The HGSFP has successfully expanded its impact beyond students to benefit farmers, communities, and local businesses; despite these achievements, the program still faces challenges including funding constraints, logistical issues, and monitoring difficulties. By analyzing successful implementations in other countries that are characterized by strong government support, well-developed supply chains, and active community participation, the paper offers insights for improvement. The discussion concludes with evidence-based recommendations for policymakers and program administrators. These suggestions aim to enhance the HGSFP’s effectiveness, efficiency, and long-term sustainability, ultimately contributing to Nigeria’s broader agricultural and economic development goals.

Impacts of an innovative credit + insurance bundle for marginalized farmers: Evidence from a cluster randomized trial in Odisha, India

Smallholder farmers often lack documented land rights to serve as collateral for formal loans, with livelihoods inextricably linked to weather conditions. Resulting credit and risk constraints prevent them from investing in their farms. We implemented a randomized evaluation of KhetScore, an innovative credit scoring approach that uses remote sensing to unlock credit and insurance for smallholders including landless farmers in Odisha, a state in eastern India. In our treatment group, where we offered KhetScore loans and insurance, farmers - and especially women - were more likely to be insured and borrow from formal sources without substituting formal for informal loans. Despite increased borrowing, treated households faced less difficulty in repaying loans, suggesting that insured KhetScore loans transferred risk and eased the burden of repayment. Moreover, the treatment enhanced agricultural profitability by increasing revenues during the monsoon season and reducing costs in the dry season. Positive and significant effects are found among both farmers with unconstrained baseline credit access, and quantity rationed farmers, suggesting that KhetScore helps address supply-side credit constraints. Finally, the treatment significantly enhanced women’s empowerment and mental health. In conclusion, remote sensing-enabled financial products can substantially improve landless farmers’ access to agricultural credit, risk management, resilience, and well-being.

Systematic risk profiling: A novel approach with applications to Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi

This paper uses machine learning, simulation, and data mining methods to develop Systematic Risk Profiles of three developing economies: Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi. We focus on three exogenous shocks with implications for economic performance: world market prices, capital flows, and climate-driven sectoral productivity. In these and other developing countries, recent decades have been characterized by increased risks associated with all these factors, and there is a demand for instruments that can help to disentangle them. For each country, we utilize historical data to develop multi-variate distributions of shocks. We then sample from these distributions to obtain a series of shock vectors, which we label economic uncertainty scenarios. These scenarios are then entered into economywide computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation models for the three countries, which allow us to quantify the impact of increased uncertainty on major economic indicators. Finally, we utilize importance metrics from the random forest machine learning algorithm and relative importance metrics from multiple linear regression models to quantify the importance of country-specific risk factors for country performance. We find that Malawi and Rwanda are more vulnerable to sectoral productivity shocks, and Kenya is more exposed to external risks. These findings suggest that a country’s level of development and integration into the global economy are key driving forces defining their risk profiles. The methodology of Systematic Risk Profiling can be applied to many other countries, delineating country-specific risks and vulnerabilities.

2024 annual trends and outlook report: Advancing the climate and bioeconomy agenda in Africa for resilient and sustainable agrifood systems

The 2024 edition of the Annual Trends and Outlook Report (ATOR) explores the challenges posed by the climate crisis to agrifood systems and the opportunities offered by a transition to a bioeconomy to mitigate and adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change. This ATOR seeks to support the ongoing development and the subsequent implementation of a new 10-year Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) strategy by the African Union through the renewed and updated post-Malabo CAADP agenda.

Food processing: A stalled transformation

Processed foods account for 80 percent of global food sales. Such foods are becoming increasingly important in low- and middle-income countries, driven by growing demand for convenient and ready-to-eat products. The aim of this chapter is to analyze the state and evolution of food processing in Myanmar and to assess the effect of the crises (COVID-19 and the military coup) on the different segments—production, trade, and consumption—of the sector. This assessment is important given the possible implications of changes in food processing for agriculture, employment opportunities in the food processing industry and food service sector, and nutritional outcomes.

MSMEs in the Food Environment in urban and peri-urban Ethiopia

In late 2023, a unique survey was fielded in Ethiopia to study micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) selling food directly to consumers in two locations in Ethiopia (a woreda of Addis Ababa, and Butajira). The survey was unique as it combines a listing exercise, which attempted to list all businesses selling food directly to customers within a specific area, and a business-oriented survey, which enumerated information about management characteristics, the use of healthy foods, nutritional awareness, and the constraints businesses might face in selling more healthy foods. We find that businesses rarely follow good business practices, they have poor access to capital, and supply challenges and variable quality are major constraints to expanding their businesses. Finally, we find many vendors are not aware of nutritional content of specific foods they might sell. From the business perspective, business trainings could help vendors become better businesses, but helping deal with supply challenges earlier in the value chain could also allow them to sell more, with consistently higher quality.

Understanding the organizational approaches of funders and project implementers to strengthen women’s empowerment through agricultural collectives

This paper reports on approaches for strengthening women’s empowerment that were implemented by project partners involved in the International Food Policy Research (IFPRI)-led Applying New Evidence for Women’s Empowerment (ANEW) project funded by the Walmart Foundation. The study explores the partner organizations’ websites and publications, project materials, and selected staff interviews to better understand how each envisions women’s empowerment and the pathways for supporting it. The four implementing project partners are Grameen Foundation, Professional Assistance for Development Action (PRADAN) in India, Root Capital in Mexico, and TechnoServe in Guatemala. Their programs and their organizational approaches vary in whether they primarily focus on women rather than more broadly targeting both women and men and their gender relationships. Some organizations are more “organic” in integrating attention to gender and empowerment into their programs, designing and implementing an approach on a case by case basis. Others are more intentional in establishing organization-wide policies, strategies, and monitoring systems. The organizations also differ in their positions on supporting “economic empowerment” and clear economic benefits such as prioritizing increased income or assets in contrast to those that also seek to actively change social norms and achieve other social dimensions of empowerment that encompass behaviors around decision-making, mobility, and self-confidence. Another variation is in the organizations’ attention to enterprise development and, consequently to entrepreneurship and upgrading, and what aspects of women's empowerment are most critical for achieving those goals. This paper offers implementers and their funders insight into organizational differences in approaches to women’s empowerment. The review demonstrates that both funders and implementers continue to focus on strengthening women’s economic empowerment by increasing women’s incomes and assets, often with good results. However, they often lack clear theories of change or explicit strategies to strengthen other dimensions of women’s empowerment. More nuanced, evidence-based theories of change and targeted actions could strengthen program design to expand and support women’s achievement of empowerment across all its dimensions.

Innovative financing mechanisms for climate adaptation in African agrifood systems

Agrifood systems are a leading cause of climate change globally, as they are responsible for a third of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the majority of which are tied to agricultural production (39 percent), followed by land use (32 percent) and supply chain activities (29 percent). Moreover, unsustainable agricultural practices continue to drive 80 percent of the loss of terrestrial biodiversity, soil degradation, and deforestation and are responsible for 70 percent of global freshwater withdrawals. GHG emissions are projected to increase by 60 to 90 percent through 2050 unless corrective action is taken (Apampa et al. 2021). Africa’s share of global GHG emissions is small (2 to 3 percent) but rising, with agriculture and land use change as major contributors (Adolph, Griffiths, and Hou-Jones 2023; FAO 2022).

Climate action and bioeconomy transition: Mainstreaming environmental sustainability in the Post-Malabo Agenda of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme

The concepts of the green economy, circular economy, blue economy, and bioeconomy started emerging in response to the multidimensional economic, socioecological, and climate change crises. These concepts are becoming popular in sustainability discussions in policy, scientific research, and business and are expected to promote sustainability through different pathways of transformation. Each of these frameworks offers a comprehensive package of solutions, yet all point toward renewable, bio-based processes and nature-based or nature-friendly solutions (Kirchherr, Reike, and Hekkert 2017; Geissdoerfer et al. 2017; D’Amato and Korhonen 2021). The bioeconomy, which is more focused on biological and nature-based/positive processes, is usually viewed as a more holistic concept that encompasses principles of the green economy, circular economy, and blue economy (Figure 12.1).

Adaptation actions to climate change in African agriculture: Effectiveness and challenges

Climate change poses a significant burden to African development and economic growth, impacting households at both national and regional levels. While accounting for only 3–4 percent of global emissions, Africa is most vulnerable to climate change due to low levels of socioeconomic growth (Kikstra et al. 2022). Africa’s vulnerability to climate change is exacerbated by its reliance on rain-fed agriculture, environmental degradation, inadequate infrastructure, widespread poverty, and increased frequency and intensity of climate-related disasters. These factors make Africa highly susceptible to climate-related disruptions such as droughts and floods and can amplify the impact of climate-related disasters on communities, economies, and ecosystems (UNECA 2013; WMO 2020). Effective adaptation strategies and risk financing mechanisms are crucial for building regional adaptive capacity and resilience.

The impact of climate change on African economies and opportunities for agrifood system transformation

As in the rest of the world, the climate is changing in Africa, with data showing a slightly faster warming trend than the global average of around +0.2°C per decade for the 1991–2022 period. In Africa, the average rate of change of temperature was around +0.3°C per decade between 1991 and 2022, while it was estimated at +0.2°C per decade between 1961 and 1990. In addition, all six African subregions have experienced an increase in warming over the past 60 years compared with the period before 1960. Due to global warming, Africa is observing a change in precipitation patterns, a rise in sea level, and an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, extreme heat, and cyclones (WMO 2023). For instance, the report on the State of the Climate in Africa in 2022 (WMO 2023) showed that precipitation anomalies were above the 1991–2020 average in northeastern Africa, large parts of West Africa, the eastern Sahel region, Sudan, and parts of South Africa. In addition, several regions experienced rainfall deficits including the western part of North Africa, the Horn of Africa, portions of southern Africa, and Madagascar. Sea level rise in Africa’s seven coastal regions has been similar to the global sea level average rate of increase of 3.4 millimeters (plus or minus 0.3 millimeters) per year between 1990 and 2020. In addition, extreme weather events are growing in frequency and intensity. With respect to extreme weather events including droughts, floods, extreme heat, and cyclones, data from the Emergency Event Database in Africa showed that 80 meteorological, hydrological, and climate-related hazards were reported in 2022 (WMO 2023).

The converging climate change and bioeconomy agendas as a pathway toward implementing the post-Malabo CAADP agenda

In June 2014, the African heads of state and government adopted the Malabo Declaration on Accelerated Agricultural Growth and Transformation for Shared Prosperity and Improved Livelihoods. The declaration contains a set of concrete goals to be attained by 2025, known as the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), which in turn functions as the main policy framework for the African Union (AU) in the agricultural sector. The declaration thus provided a new direction for a more focused approach to achieving the continent’s vision for agricultural growth and transformation (AUC 2014). According to the African Union Commission (AUC) and the African Union Development Agency (AUDA-NEPAD), the CAADP was designed as a practical instrument and framework through which Africa was going to drive efforts to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. The importance of evidence to inform policy design and implementation, inclusive participation of multiple stakeholder groups at all stages of the policy process, and mutual accountability for actions and results are at the heart of the CAADP. These principles help formulate high-quality policies and ensure that successful policies are scaled up while unsuccessful ones are adjusted. Since the adoption of the Malabo Declaration, 10 years have elapsed, and considerable progress toward achieving some of its targets is visible across the continent. With the lifespan of the Malabo Declaration coming to an end, the AU proactively initiated the design of a new 10-year strategy, covering the period from 2026 to 2035. As Africa has embarked on designing this successor strategy, it faces multiple complex challenges compounded by the climate crisis. With the opportune timing of this Annual Trends and Outlook Report, this chapter explores how the convergence of the climate change agenda and the transition to a bioeconomy will shape future strategic political decisions across the continent, effecting an equitable and sustainable transformation of agrifood systems. Thus, the bioeconomy can be a solution to future challenges resulting from climate change (for example, climate adaption) vis-à-vis the challenges of avoiding the unsustainable use of natural resources (through climate mitigation, land use change, and the sustainable use of inputs). Simultaneously, the bioeconomy will generate opportunities for new markets—including markets for bioproducts, bioenergy or food based on insects or waste, and carbon engineering (markets that are discussed in Featured Issue 1).

Climate risks and vulnerabilities in African agrifood systems

In an era when the impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly pronounced, understanding and mitigating climate risk is paramount, especially for regions highly vulnerable to environmental change. Africa, with its rich biodiversity and varied climates, stands on the front line, facing unique challenges posed by climate change and climate variability. The continent’s susceptibility around climate change is not just a matter of environmental concern but a multifaceted issue affecting socioeconomic development, agricultural sustainability, and the overall well-being of its inhabitants. The imperative to assess, comprehend, and adapt to these risks is more critical now than ever, necessitating a detailed analysis of various climate-related parameters and their long-term implications.

Tracking key CAADP indicators and implementation processes

In this chapter we review Africa’s progress in CAADP process implementation and on the CAADP RF indicators to highlight areas of strong performance that need to be sustained or accelerated as well as areas of weak performance that require urgent attention to enable the continent to meet its Malabo Declaration agricultural transformation goals. The chapter examines progress on 27 of the 38 CAADP RF indicators for which cross-country data are available (Table 13.2). Details of the indicators and aggregate statistics are available in the data tables in Annexes 1–3 of this report. Progress on the RF indicators is discussed across different aggregated geographic and economic groupings of African countries by comparing trends in the RF indicators during the first five years after the adoption of CAADP (2003–2008) with later subperiods (2008–2014 and 2014–2023), with a particular focus on the Malabo Declaration period of 2014–2023.

A nutrition-sensitive circular bioeconomy for food systems transformation in Africa

Africa’s commitment to creating a sustainable and self-sufficient economy for its rapidly growing population has led to programmatic actions aimed at meeting local food, energy, and material demands sustainably and without compromising planetary boundaries (Africa Business Page 2022; Agri SA 2023). The bioeconomy has become a primary focus of this transformative blueprint, generally positioned as a vehicle for generating and using bioresources in meeting local demands for abundance, sustainable goods, and services (Gatune, Ozor, and Oriama 2021; Malabo Montpellier Panel 2022). However, the implementation momentum of the bioeconomy is incumbent on a well-planned and objective-oriented policy framework that supports generation of scientific evidence and reasonable investment structures, among other requirements for implementation (East African Community 2022; Pachón et al. 2018).

Just energy transition: Challenges and low carbon pathways for Africa

Transitioning to renewable energy is a critical part of addressing climate change and ensuring sustainable development. However, if this transition does not consider the social, economic, and financial implications for African countries, it cannot be considered a “just” transition for Africa. At the social level, the transition to low-carbon pathways, such as renewable energy sources, will create new employment opportunities. However, poor countries and marginalized populations may face disproportionate challenges during this transition if they are excluded from decision-making processes or do not benefit from these new job prospects. It is therefore essential to ensure that low-carbon pathways help reduce social inequalities and improve livelihoods for people in these countries and communities. At the economic and financial levels, transitioning to low-carbon pathways will require significant funding to develop national or regional value chains, invest in research and development, and build capacity. International financial support will be crucial for developing countries, especially in Africa, to ensure a just transition.

Does nutrition-sensitive social protection build longer-term resilience? Experimental evidence from Bangladesh

Evidence shows that cash and in-kind transfer programs increase food security while interventions are ongoing, including during or immediately after shocks. But less is known about whether receipt of these programs can have protective effects for household food security against shocks that occur several years after interventions end. We study the effects of a transfer program implemented as a cluster-randomized control trial in rural Bangladesh from 2012-2014 – the Transfer Modality Research Initiative (TMRI) – on food security in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We assess TMRI’s impacts at three post-program time points: before the shock (2018), amidst the shock (2021), and after the immediate effects of the shock (2022). We find that TMRI showed protective effects on household food security during and after the pandemic, but program design features “mattered”; positive impacts were only seen in the treatment arm that combined cash transfers with nutrition behavior change communication (Cash+BCC). Other treatment arms – cash only, and food only – showed no significant sustained effects on our household food security measures after the intervention ended, nor did they show protective effects during the pandemic. A plausible mechanism is that investments made by Cash+BCC households in productive assets – specifically livestock – increased their pre-shock resilience capacity.

South Asia Nutrition Knowledge Initiative: Abstract digest October 2024

In the fourth edition of the South Asia Nutrition Knowledge Initiative’s Abstract Digest, we present global, regional, and country-level evidence on various aspects of nutrition. The global studies include a discussion on strategies to improve infant and child survival rates that are currently off track, a systematic review examining effects of small-quantity lipid-based nutrient supplements on maternal and infant outcomes, a scoping review to understand delivery platforms for reaching adolescents with nutrition interventions, a study assessing sugar-sweetened beverage consumption trends among children and adolescents across 185 countries, and a policy-oriented study shedding light on the cost to inaction in achieving nutrition targets. Other studies of interest include assessment of factors associated with adolescent motherhood and child undernutrition in Bangladesh, double and triple-burden of malnutrition among adolescents and children in India, and two sub-national level studies from India on diets and nutritional status of women of reproductive age, and women’s empowerment and child anthropometry. This issue also includes several studies on antenatal care, including its quality, utilization, and integration of other services to improve child growth, and two studies are focused on factors affecting dietary behaviors, and diet quality of women and children. Please scroll down to explore the abstracts of these studies. If you received this Abstract Digest via forwarding, we invite you to subscribe for future editions.

The adoption and impact of food safety measures on smallholder dairy farmers’ economic welfare: Evidence from the Indo-Gangetic plains of India.

This study examines the adoption of compliance with food safety measures (FSM) using cross-sectional data collected at the farm level in three key states of the Indo-Gangetic Plains, Bihar, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh in 2023. A Food Safety Index (FSI) was developed to assess the intensity of adoption of food safety practices. Determinants of compliance with practices were assessed using multiple linear regression and an ordered logistic model. Generalized propensity score matching was used to evaluate the heterogenous impact of the adoption of FSM on farm-level performance indicators. The findings indicate that farmers are embracing a moderate level (0.48–0.58) of the food safety index at the farm level. The various socioeconomic and demographic factors influence compliance with FSM which include education, income, marketing channel, training exposure, awareness level, and infrastructure. The impact assessment reveals the direct relationship between FSM compliance and performance indicators. However, a lower level of compliance may not yield significant improvements. The study suggests incentivization through pricing reforms, improving infrastructure, and strengthening formal marketing channels.

A guide to developing quantitative tools for measuring gender norms in agrifood systems

Increasingly, gender transformative approaches (GTAs), which seek to transform the underlying causes of gender inequalities, including discriminatory gender norms, are being used in agrifood systems (AFS) interventions. A growing body of evidence finds that GTAs contribute to positive impacts on a wide range of important development outcomes and have potential for improving gender equality. One limitation to better understanding changes in AFS-based gender norms as a result of GTAs is a lack of appropriate quantitative tools for measuring these norms. This work is an important step in filling that gap. Herein we detail the collaborative process that we undertook in Nigeria and Tanzania to develop a quantitative approach to measuring gender norms in the cassava, poultry, and fisheries value chains in each country. We then provide guidance for how implementing and research partners using GTAs in AFS can apply our learnings to their own work.

Varietal turnover in potato and its effect on yield: Evidence from household surveys in India

Potato remains a crucial crop for achieving India’s food security goals and generating income for small-scale farmers. But India, the largest potato producer after China, remains behind many of its peers in attaining high yield. A low varietal replacement rate could be one of the major reasons for low yield in India. This critical issue warrants investigation, yet empirical results remain limited in the Indian context. Drawing on data from a comprehensive field survey of 892 potato growing farmers conducted in 2018–19 across five major potato-producing states in India, we find the determinants of the average area-weighted age of potato varieties used, and their impact on potato yield. The instrumental variable regression analysis establishes a negative association between varietal age and yield of potato. It also underscores the importance of access to weather forecast and linkages with agricultural organizations to achieve higher yield. Furthermore, it shows that household size, links to political party, and information about new seeds from friends, progressive farmers and input dealers are associated with lower varietal age. These insights will be instrumental for policymakers and potato breeders in promoting sustainable agricultural practices and boosting food security in India amidst the impending demographic challenges.

Poultry value chain and cluster development in Papua New Guinea: Insights from a recent field study

Despite poultry being lauded as a relatively affordable source of protein and micronutrients in many lower-income countries, chicken meat is twice as expensive in PNG compared to nearby Southeast Asian countries. Recent rural household consumption data collected by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) suggests that an important share of households do not eat enough protein to meet healthy dietary guidelines (Schmidt et al., 2024). Poultry, along with fish and pork, are the three most important animal-source protein foods in the country, yet these products remain financially prohibitive to a large share of the population.

This paper explores the unique challenges and opportunities within PNG’s poultry sector using a "growth diagnostic" approach (pioneered by Rodrik, 2010). Through interviews with key stakeholders across the poultry value chain, we found that while high feed costs persist as a significant challenge, poultry farmers have yet to adopt additional cost-reduction strategies, such as establishing small-scale regional feed mills, utilizing local feed ingredients, and diversifying feed and input imports. An intriguing puzzle of PNG’s poultry sector is the limited number of small-scale producers successfully transitioning to medium-scale operations. This primarily stems from high transport costs and restricted access to input and sales markets. The challenges of marketing chicken in PNG have received less attention than production. Drawing on the experiences of successful models in other countries and considering the specific situation of PNG's poultry sector, fostering poultry production and processing clusters (e.g., in Lae suburban areas) emerges as a potential strategy to address production, transportation, and marketing constraints. By concentrating production, value chain clustering can enhance access to essential services (e.g. slaughtering and cold storage), improve market access, and reduce overall costs. While clustering holds promise for PNG’s poultry value chain, its success hinges upon joint action between the public and private sectors, as well as NGOs operating within the value chain.

Modeling crop-livestock interactions in semi-subsistence economies

Climate and weather shocks pose significant threats to crop-livestock systems, leading to economic losses and humanitarian crises. Utilizing a modeling framework that innovatively integrates the crop and livestock systems, this study examines the interactions and dynamic adjustments within these systems following weather shocks, using Ethiopia as a case study. We also evaluate the effectiveness of various adaptation strategies in sustaining farm incomes, food security, and welfare. Results show unique effects on the crop and livestock sectors resulting from a joint shock on the two systems. While food crops experience a strong and immediate growth effect that fades quickly, the livestock sector faces the full impact of the shock a year later, with the effect persisting to some degree. We also find diverging economic and livestock system adjustment trajectories from the separate shocks to the crop and livestock systems. Further, the intervention options analyzed show contrasting impacts on various outcome indications, with only the resilient crop intervention causing sector-indifferent impacts. Our findings emphasize the importance of proactive measures to enhance the resilience of crop-livestock systems, with implications for policy and practice aimed at safeguarding food security and livelihoods in semi-subsistence economies.

Reconciling conservation and development requires enhanced integration and broader aims: A cross- continental assessment of landscape approaches

Expectations for agricultural landscapes in subtropical and tropical regions are high, aiming for conservation
and development amid climate change, unfair trade, poverty, and environmental degradation. Landscape ap-
proaches (LAs) are gaining momentum as means to reconcile expectations, although they face multiple chal-
lenges, including unclear distinctions among LAs and stakeholder involvement. We studied 380 LAs from
three continents via questionnaires with landscape managers (2012–2015 and 2021) and identified three LA
types through cluster analysis: an ‘‘integrated’’ type with longer-term, multisectoral goals involving various
stakeholders early in the design and two shorter-term types focused on sectoral priorities of preservation
or production. Better-performing LAs are associated with longevity, inclusivity, and diversified investments
across goals, notably those enabling social justice. International stakeholder analysis shows broad support
for LAs but identifies gaps between support and LAs’ needs. The growing interest in LAs is promising. Yet,
underpinning effective and lasting LAs that reconcile multiple expectations requires better support.

The agricultural transformation index

Agricultural transformation, in broad terms, is the process during which the agricultural sector develops from a low-productivity, subsistence-oriented sector to a modern, commercially oriented one. It typically involves adopting advanced technologies and more sustainable and efficient production practices, and results in higher agricultural productivity per worker, agricultural diversification into high-value crops, and rising rural incomes. Importantly, agricultural transformation is also seen as a catalyst for broader economic development and a structural shift towards industrialization in developing economies. Given the central role of agricultural transformation in driving such change, as well as its contribution to development objectives such as poverty reduction, improvements in diet quality, and environmental sustainability, it is useful to measure and monitor progress on agricultural transformation. This is the purpose of the Agricultural Transformation Index (ATI), a newly developed composite index constructed from four indicators of progress on agricultural transformation: staple crop productivity, crop diversification, agricultural labor productivity, and food system expansion. Together, these indicators, which are calculated from publicly available, global datasets, can be used to examine progress over time on global, regional, and national scales. In addition to being transparent and easy to interpret, the index can be updated annually as new data is released. As demonstrated in this study, the ATI produces a plausible ranking of countries and is highly correlated with indicators of overall economic wellbeing such as GDP per capita or household-specific welfare measures such as poverty or the prevalence of undernourishment. The ATI is not only useful for identifying countries in need of support from international development partners or tracking their progress on agricultural transformation but can also highlight specific areas of agricultural transformation where technical or investment support might be directed by governments or their partners.

How do videos fit into current agricultural advisory services? Lessons from Kenya and Uganda

While video extension is a recognized means to overcome the challenges posed by traditional agricultural advisory services, adoption has been limited. This paper presents two case studies conducted in Kenya and Uganda that explore the potential of video extension for promoting climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices. In Kenya, videos were rolled out by GROOTS Kenya, which predominantly serves women farmers. In Uganda, the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries’ Agricultural Extension Services implemented the video rollout, focusing on both women and men farmers. We used qualitative research linked to both video rollouts to understand the benefits and challenges linked to the intervention. We also compared the implementation strategies used in the two countries to evaluate the suitability of videos as a “best fit” advisory provision tool. Both women and men farmers enjoyed watching the videos. They improved farmers' access to information, resulting in increased knowledge and adoption of CSA practices. Costs involved in some practices affected their adoption as did lack of intrahousehold decision-making power, particularly for women. In some cases, infrastructural challenges complicated the video showings. The findings underscore the importance of complementing traditional agricultural extension with interactive and context-specific video content without replacing and neglecting other modes of extension, as well as the need for political support to ensure the scalability and long-term success of video extension initiatives.

Strengthening women’s empowerment, climate resilience, and nutrition along the goat value chain in Senegal: A qualitative study

Goats are an important source of income, nutrition and resilience in Senegal. This study assesses opportunities to strengthen women’s agency, increase resilience to climate change, and improve nutrition along the various stages of goat value chains from the acquisition of feed resources and other inputs to processing, marketing and consumption of various goat products. The qualitative study finds that even though goats are more climate resilient than other livestock, climate change impacts on goat production and productivity are increasingly felt, particularly through impacts on feed resources. The study identified opportunities to strengthen women’s roles along the goat value chain, particularly in goat production and, to a lesser extent, in processing of goat products. Women and their families also benefit from the consumption of goat milk and women have some degree of control over income from the sale of goat products. Strengthening women’s agency in these nutrient-rich and relatively climate-resilient value chains will require improving their access to land resources and better animal feeds, supporting women’s groups and building women’s capacity for processing and marketing goat products, improving access to electricity for cold storage of goat products, and raising awareness regarding the nutritional benefits of goat products, especially for women and children.

The true costs of food production in Kenya and Viet Nam

Sustainable agrifood systems (AFS) provide food security and nutrition without compromising economic, social, and environmental objectives. However, many AFS generate substantial unaccounted for environmental, social, and health costs. True cost accounting (TCA) is one method that adds direct and external costs to find the “true cost” of food production, which can inform policies to reduce externalities or adjust market prices. We find that for Kenya— considering the entire food system, including crops, livestock, fishing, and value addition sectors at the national level—external costs represent 35 percent of the output value. Social costs account for 73 percent of the total external costs, while environmental costs are 27 percent. In contrast, in Viet Nam, where total external costs represent 15 percent of the output value, the environmental costs (75 percent) dominate social costs. At the subnational level, in the three Kenyan counties (Kisumu, Vihiga, and Kajiado) covered by the CGIAR Research Initiative on Nature-Positive Solutions (NATURE+), external costs (or the true cost gap) represent about 30 percent of all household crop production costs. Those external costs are overwhelmingly dominated by social (84 percent) over environmental (16 percent) externalities. In Viet Nam's Sa Pa and Mai Son districts, external costs represent about 24 percent of all household crop production costs. Environmental externalities (61 percent) are greater than social ones (39 percent). In Kenya, forced labor is the main social (and overall) external impact driven by factors ranging from "less severe" financial coercion to "more severe" forms of physical coercion. Land occupation is the most important environmental impact, resulting from occupation of lands for cultivation rather than conservation, while underpayment (low wages) and low profits are important social costs that are closely associated with the prevailing gender wage gap and occurrence of harassment. Soil degradation is the only other environmental impact, linked with the use of inorganic fertilizers (60 percent of households) and pesticides (36 percent). In Viet Nam, land occupation is the most important external impact, followed by soil degradation and contributions to climate change, primarily due to widespread use of inorganic fertilizers (98 percent of households) and pesticides (93 percent). Underpayment and insufficient income are significant social costs, followed by the gender wage gap and child labor. Crop production systems in Kenya exhibit relatively high labor-related costs compared with nonlabor inputs, with relatively lower intensity in the use of inorganic fertilizer and other chemical inputs and lower crop yields. This production system leads to relatively greater social externalities. Conversely, crop yields in Viet Nam are significantly higher than those in Kenya, likely due to the extensive use of inorganic fertilizers representing the largest direct cost component and leading to a relatively higher level of environmental externalities. Because external costs represent a significant part of the total cost of food production, policy and investments to minimize these costs are essential to a nature-positive AFS that is environmentally sustainable and socially equitable. Strategies to reach this goal include regulatory adjustments, investments in resource efficient infrastructure and technologies that minimize costs, and the prudent management of environmentally impactful production inputs and factors.

Cluster-based development: Lessons from country experiences for Odisha, India

Clusters are spatial aggregations of small businesses producing the same or related goods or services. Together, these businesses have the potential to contribute to economic development of rural areas by compounding the existing strengths of local producing communities. Cluster-based development has been successful where governments facilitate infrastructure and provide services to support existing clusters, often leading to spillover and expansion of these clusters to wider areas over time (Abdelaziz et al. 2021). Agrifood cluster development can occur via two broad mechanisms: (1) immanent development, where clusters of commercial farms as well as firms in the value chain that provide goods and services re quired by farms (for example, specialized production inputs, machinery, and transport), emerge spontaneously in co-located groups; and (2) organized development, where actors such as government, companies, or nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) organize producers into groups to deliver extension services, inputs, or credit or to upgrade production practices, facilitate collective action to improve terms of market access, or enable compliance with standards or forms of branding such as geographic indications

Estimating multidimensional development resilience

Resilience measurement has received substantial attention over the past decade or so. Existing measures, however, relate resilience to a single well-being indicator. This may be problematic in contexts where households face deprivations in multiple dimensions. We explore how sensitive estimates of household-level resilience are to the specific well-being indicator used and show that measures are only weakly correlated across different, reasonable indicators based on expenditure-based poverty, dietary diversity, and livestock asset holdings. We then introduce a multidimensional resilience measure, integrating the probabilistic moment-based resilience measurement approach of Cissé and Barrett (2018) with the multidimensional poverty measurement method of Alkire and Foster (2011). Applying the new method to household panel data, we show that univariate and multidimensional resilience measures can yield varied inferences on the ranking of households as well as potential impact of development interventions.