Journal Articles

Inclusive and gender-transformative seed systems: Concepts and applications

CONTEXT
Seed is vital to the nutrition and livelihoods of millions of women and men small-scale farmers in low- and middle-income countries. Seed systems interventions can significantly enhance food security and nutrition by accelerating the adoption of improved varieties and the use of quality seed, which in turn increase the rate of genetic gain, productivity, and household welfare. These interventions can be particularly effective when advancing gender equality by supporting women's empowerment and addressing discriminatory gender norms. However, there is relatively little evidence on the ways in which seed systems can be an entry point for advancing gender equality by transforming discriminatory gender norms.
OBJECTIVES
We develop and illustrate a gender transformative approach applied to seed sector development. Our first objective is to provide a framework to better understand how seed systems interventions can contribute to gender equality by (1) integrating gender-accommodative and gender-transformative approaches; and (2) assessing their gendered impacts. Our second objective is to apply this framework to a particular innovation – gender messaging via information and communications technologies (ICTs) – and explore how seed system interventions can be made more gender-transformative.
METHODS
We first reviewed the existing literature to develop a framework that defines gender-transformative and accommodative seed system interventions and their impacts. We then synthesized lessons learned from the application of this framework to case studies from Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda that used ICTs that contained gendered components.
RESULTS AND CONCLUSION
We discuss how a gender-accommodative approach aims for gender considerations to improve seed systems, while a gender-transformative approach flips the goal around by aiming at progress toward gender equality through seed systems. We find growing evidence on the potential of gender-transformative seed systems interventions to influence positively the empowerment of women and also men, and to create more conducive gender norms, as shown by three case studies on ICT enablers. These case studies also show that accommodative and transformative approaches are often complementary.
SIGNIFICANCE
We introduce research questions that research and development practitioners can ask to develop accommodative or transformative approaches in seed system interventions, and show the potential of both approaches to progress toward gender equality. The case studies indicate the feasibility of gender-transformative, ICT-enabled seed system interventions, with clear indications of the potential for low-cost adaptation at scale. However, the transformative potential of these interventions requires careful consideration of messaging content, format, and context, as well as strategic public investment and strong political will.

Adapting the Women's Empowerment in Nutrition Index: Lessons from Kenya

Women face a disproportionate burden of malnutrition and food insecurity. Research has shown that women's empowerment can buffer women against nutritional problems. This paper contributes to ongoing efforts to measure women's empowerment that are both context-sensitive and universal, focusing on the recently developed Women's Empowerment in Nutrition Index (WENI). Earlier research has shown it is both a valid construct and positively related to dietary and nutritional outcomes of women in South Asia. We establish that WENI is generalizable to agropastoral and pastoral Kenya, an area with substantially different livelihoods, food system, norms, and institutions than South Asia. We find that a locally contextualized WENI is strongly associated with women's body mass index and dietary diversity as well as household level food insecurity. We also present findings for two shorter variations of WENI: an abbreviated WENI (A-WENI) and a cross context WENI (CC-WENI). A-WENI contains a small subset of WENI indicators identified using machine learning with South Asian data and therefore is context-specific. CC-WENI does not contain indicators specific to the validation context. We find that they perform comparably well with caveats. Thus, as use of WENI expands we recommend adapting WENI for in-depth analyses of women's nutritional empowerment; using CC-WENI for cross-context comparisons; and using A-WENI for rapid appraisals of community level progress in a given context.

Evaluating the gendered credit constraints and uptake of an insurance-linked credit product among smallholder farmers in Kenya

Understanding pastoralist adaptations to drought via games and choice experiments: Field testing among Borana communities

Transhumant and nomadic pastoralism in arid and semi-arid spaces from West through Central, East, and Southern Africa is regarded as critical to regional system resilience and food security. Although pastoral systems are highly adapted and adaptive to uncertainty and change, recent decades of severe climatic events and increasing resource pressure are pushing pastoral systems to adopt novel norms and practices. Importantly, forage residue conservation and private forage enclosures are becoming important practices among herders and non-herders alike. As one part of considering the relevance of these responses in shaping the future trajectory of transhumant pastoralism, we developed a multi-part intervention for measuring and observing preferences in pastoral systems, including a novel experimental game called GreenReserve, and tested it in Borana communities in northern Kenya. We found that GreenReserve captured dimensions of human-environment dilemmas faced by pastoralists, and shifted preferences around herd size, losses, and the use of time, as measured through a repeated discrete choice experiment. We found game groups with younger players and with more female players to include more exploration of pastoral adaptations such as the use of grass reserves and the harvesting of grass, as well as to have less conflict within the game. We also observed both preferences as well as game strategy to shift along the length of the study: as the region moved further into a drought and failed short rainy season, players were more conscious of large herds, bad rainfall-year losses, and made better use of reserves in game play, though it was beyond the scope of the current study to determine causality. Future research is needed to unpack the mechanisms underlying the variations and possible shift in preferences and subsequently help identify entry points for targeted interventions (including agricultural extension services) to support pastoral communities in climate change adaptation. Further, these first fieldwork findings suggest two key dimensions for expanded work beyond this study to identify whether mixed methods approaches such as this aid experiential learning in agriculture contexts.

Ex ante economic impact assessment of the 3R-gene potato in Kenya

Potato late-blight disease is as a major constraint to potato production in Kenya. The use of fungicides to control the disease is limited by the practice of delaying application until the symptoms are visible, and inappropriate application rates and methods. Biotech crops, such as 3R-gene potato, are providing sustainable solutions to crop protection challenges in agriculture, but little is known about their social and economic potential in any country. To gain greater insights into the potential of 3R-gene potato in Kenya, this study evaluates the economic benefits of Asante, Shangi, and Tigoni potato varieties, which are resistant to late blight. Data from experts along the potato value chain and secondary sources are analyzed using the economic surplus model and a real options model. First, experts’ opinions revealed that late-blight disease is responsible for 23% of production loss annually, and that 12% of the production costs are due to the use of fungicides to control late blight disease. Secondly, the study results suggest that the release of 3R-gene Shangi would generate the greatest economic benefits of KES 845.9 million (US$ 8.2 million) annually. The expected net benefits of 3R-gene Asante are KES 7.3 million (US$ 0.07 million) annually. 3R-gene Tigoni, with the lowest potential adoption rates, would be expected to realize a negative net of KES of -1.26 million (US$ -0.01 million) annually. Significant potential economic gains, which is expected to increase with better awareness of biotech crops, support the immediate release of 3R-gene Shangi in Kenya.

Using best-worst scaling to inform agroecological interventions in Western Kenya

Both the demand for food and the environmental impacts of food production are estimated to significantly increase by 2050. Agroecological interventions have proven effective in facilitating the transition from current food production systems to more sustainable ones. These interventions can not only ensure more equitable food and nutritional security but also address poverty and reduce environmental impacts. As such, agroecological interventions can generate both private and public ecosystem services. Farmers play a key role in how food is produced, as the practices they use are linked with their preferences and expertise, as well as the constraints they face. Understanding farmers’ preferences for the adoption of different agroecological practices and their perceptions of the associated costs and benefits is critical to informing policies that can effectively support farmers in transitioning to more sustainable practices, including those that contribute to the generation of ecosystem services highly valued by broader society. To assess such preferences, we conducted a survey among farmers in Western Kenya which included a best-worst scaling experiment augmented by qualitative questions about the reasons for farmers’ views about the importance of the benefits arising from agroecological practices. Results show that farmers have strong preferences for adopting agroecological practices that generate private goods and are directly related to increasing productivity and food security, including improving health of household members. These may also include practices that have some public good elements as well, such as increasing agrobiodiversity. However, practices that generate broader public good benefits, including improved forest quality/coverage, reduced off-farm environmental impacts, greater community-level resilience to shocks, and improved landscape and wildlife management, were less important to farmers. Such findings can be used to inform policies that support farmer adoption of agroecological interventions best suited to different farming communities, as well as indicating the need for additional types of market-based incentives, such as through Payments for Ecosystem Service mechanisms.

Monitoring biofortification program performance and potential for impact: Indicators, methods, and learnings from the commercialization of biofortified crops program in six countries across Africa and Asia

Background
Biofortification of staple crops is a food-based strategy to reduce the high global burden of micronutrient deficiencies. Monitoring program performance is essential to ensure biofortification programs have high potential for impact; however, few indicators and methods for doing so are publicly available.

Objective
We documented the set of standardized indicators and methods used to monitor the Commercialization of Biofortified Crops (CBC) program and reviewed their strengths and limitations.

Methods
Following the CBC program impact pathway, we identified and defined a set of indicators and corresponding methods. Country-level implementation teams contextualized and operationalized them to monitor 9 country-crop programs (i.e., high iron beans in Kenya and Tanzania, iron pearl millet in India, vitamin A maize in Nigeria and Tanzania, vitamin A cassava in Nigeria, zinc wheat in Pakistan and India, and zinc rice in Bangladesh) from 2020 to 2022.

Results
Twenty indicators were defined across domains of seed supply, production, availability, awareness, capacity development, advocacy, and consumption of biofortified foods. Data collection methods included external and internal document review, farmer household surveys, rapid market assessments, and modeling. The strengths of these methods were that they were rapid to conduct, low cost, and simple to use. For some methods, the limitations were the potentially reduced accuracy of some results due to the use of external data sources or secondary data inputs and unavailability of data.

Conclusions
The indicators and methods used in the CBC program are practical and cost effective for monitoring the implementation of biofortification programs because they generate the range of information necessary to understand how effectively a program is delivered and bolster plausibility arguments for attributing observed impacts to program activities. Further testing is needed to confirm their generalizability when applied to different contexts and paired with impact evaluations with the aim of producing publicly available global guidance documents.

Impacts of gender-inclusive extension approaches on farmer understanding and willingness to pay for bundled financial services

Building the resilience of smallholder farmers, and their ability to cope with the negative impacts of climate shocks can significantly improve the sustainability of agriculture as a reliable source of livelihood. While innovations such as index insurance and bundled financial instruments could enhance smallholder farmers' climate resilience, their uptake, and use remain low, especially among women farmers. Based on experimental data from a risk contingent credit (RCC—an insurance bundled credit product) project in Kenya, we argue that employing inclusive extension approaches that address social inequities in information access and use could enhance gender equality in product understanding, a key determinant of uptake. We evaluate the gender differences of the impacts of conventional face-to-face, animated brochures, and video-based extension approaches on product understanding and willingness to pay (WTP) for RCC. We find that; (i) providing animated brochures to a random subset of farmers significantly improved their understanding and WTP for the product, (ii) the use of animated videos significantly increased product understanding, but it had weaker impacts on the farmers' WTP, and (iii) the impact of animated brochures on product understanding was significantly larger among women farmers. This study underscores the importance of addressing social and cultural barriers to agricultural information access and use, and designing tailored extension approaches to support men and women in making informed decisions about climate risk management. From a policy perspective, we conclude that addressing these barriers could foster a socially fair, and a more sustainable and resilient agricultural sector for both men and women smallholder farmers.

How do women’s empowerment metrics measure up? A comparative analysis

Research has identified women’s empowerment as a critical factor for nutritional outcomes and a priority area for understanding women’s mental health status. At the same time, there is no consensus on how empowerment should be measured. The surrounding debate has produced several empowerment metrics that are widely used, yet we know little about whether they can be substituted for one another or their respective strengths and weaknesses. Using data collected from a single sample of women from rural, northern Kenya, we compare five empowerment metrics: The Project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (pro-WEAI) and associated Health and Nutrition Module (HN), Women’s Empowerment in Nutrition Index (WENI), Women’s Empowerment in Livestock Index (WELI), and the Survey Based Women’s Empowerment Index (SWPER). The metrics have shared theoretical origins and are commonly used in the food, nutrition and health spaces to study rural women’s lives across low- and middle-income countries. We examine the metrics’ characteristics, distributions, pairwise correlations and capacity of each metric to predict outcomes often associated with the concept of empowerment: body mass index (BMI) and the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D). We find striking differences between these common empowerment metrics. The metrics’ correlations with one another are highly variable as are the predictive capacities for both outcomes. Further, our analysis finds that the choice of metric can dramatically influence which individuals are identified as empowered. In sum, our results suggest that while these metrics are used in remarkably similar ways to understand rural women’s empowerment and its consequences, unless they are computed with many identical survey questions, the metrics do not capture the same underlying concept and are not interchangeable. We recommend that our work be replicated elsewhere and caution should be taken when implementing and interpreting research using these metrics, as findings may be highly sensitive to the choice of metric.

Treatment of moderate acute malnutrition through community health volunteers is a cost-effective intervention: Evidence from a resource-limited setting

Treatment outcomes for acute malnutrition can be improved by integrating treatment into community case management (iCCM). However, little is known about the cost-effectiveness of this integrated nutrition intervention. The present study investigates the cost-effectiveness of treating moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) through community health volunteer (CHV) and integrating it with routine iCCM. A cost-effectiveness model compared the costs and effects of CHV sites plus health facility-based treatment (intervention) with the routine health facility-based treatment strategy alone (control). The costing assessments combined both provider and patient costs. The cost per DALY averted was the primary metric for the comparison, on which sensitivity analysis was performed. Additionally, the integrated strategy's relative value for money was evaluated using the most recent country-specific gross domestic product threshold metrics. The intervention dominated the health facility-based strategy alone on all computed cost-effectiveness outcomes. MAM treatment by CHVs plus health facilities was estimated to yield a cost per death and DALY averted of US$ 8743 and US$ 397, respectively, as opposed to US$ 13,846 and US$ 637 in the control group. The findings also showed that the intervention group spent less per child treated and recovered than the control group: US$ 214 versus US$ 270 and US$ 306 versus US$ 485, respectively. Compared with facility-based treatment, treating MAM by CHVs and health facilities was a cost-effective intervention. Additional gains could be achieved if more children with MAM are enrolled and treated.

The impacts of task shifting on the management and treatment of malnourished children in Northern Kenya: A cluster-randomized controlled trial

Treating children with acute malnutrition can be challenging, particularly regarding access to healthcare facilities during treatment. Task shifting, a strategy of transferring specific tasks to health workers with shorter training and fewer qualifications, is being considered as an effective approach to enhancing health outcomes in primary healthcare. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of integrating the treatment of acute malnutrition by community health volunteers into integrated community case management in two sub-counties in northern Kenya (Loima and Isiolo). We conducted a two-arm non-inferiority cluster-randomized controlled trial across 20 community health units. Participants were children aged 6–59 months with uncomplicated acute malnutrition. In the intervention group, community health volunteers used simplified tools and protocols to identify and treat eligible children at home and provided the usual integrated community case management package. In the control group, community health volunteers provided the usual integrated community case management package only (screening and referral of the malnourished children to the health facilities). The primary outcome was recovery (MUAC ≥12.5 cm for 2 consecutive weeks). Results show that children in the intervention group were more likely to recover than those in the control group [73 vs 50; risk difference (RD) = 26% (95% CI 12 to 40) and risk ratio (RR) = 2 (95% CI 1.2 to 1.9)]. The probability of defaulting was lower in the intervention group than in the control group: RD = −21% (95% CI −31 to −10) and RR = 0.3 (95% CI 0.2 to 0.5). The intervention reduced the length of stay by about 13 days, although this was not statistically significant and varied substantially by sub-county. Integrating the treatment of acute malnutrition by community health volunteers into the integrated community case management programme led to better malnutrition treatment outcomes. There is a need to integrate acute malnutrition treatment into integrated community case management and review policies to allow community health volunteers to treat uncomplicated acute malnutrition.

Harnessing the job creation capacity of young rural agripreneurs: A quasi-experimental study of the ENABLE program in Africa

With evidence of increasing investment in youth agribusiness empowerment programs across Africa, employment discussions and strategies are increasingly focusing on how youth-owned agribusinesses can facilitate long-term job creation and contribute to revitalizing rural economies in the coming years. In light of these changing employment dynamics, we assessed the evolving role of youth and small agribusinesses in employment creation in rural areas. Further, we assessed the impact of agribusiness empowerment programs in unlocking the job creation capacity of young agribusiness owners, taking evidence from the youth component of the African Development Bank (AfDB) Technologies for African Agricultural Transformation (TAAT) program, Empowering Novel Agribusiness-Led Employment (ENABLE) implemented in Kenya, Nigeria, and Uganda. A total of 1435 respondents, comprising 737 participants and 698 non-participants were surveyed across the three countries. An Endogenous Switching Regression (ESR) model was used to identify factors that determined program participation, and factors influencing job creation, and assess the program's impact on job creation. The results validate our assumption of changing employment dynamics in the rural areas where youth-owned small agribusinesses hired an average of 4 employees. The ESR results show the significance of the program on the job creation capacity of participants across the three countries. Also, we found that non-participants could potentially increase their job creation capacity if they had participated in the program. Factors that influence job creation include socio-economic, such as age and marital status, business attributes including agribusiness experience, business level, income, and access to land. These results indicate that continuous concerted efforts on agribusiness empowerment will have a notable impact in generating more jobs and reducing the rates of unemployment, particularly among young people. Thus, more investment should be directed towards empowering young people in agribusiness in the study countries, and elsewhere in Africa.

Perceptions towards management of acute malnutrition by community health volunteers in northern Kenya

Child undernutrition is a persistent challenge in arid and semi-arid areas due to low and erratic rainfall, recurrent droughts and food insecurity. In these settings, caregivers face several challenges in accessing health services for sick and/or malnourished children, including long distances to health facilities, harsh terrain, and lack of money to pay for transportation costs to the health facilities, leading to low service coverage and sub-optimal treatment outcomes. To address these challenges and optimize treatment outcomes, the World Health Organization recommends utilizing community health volunteers (CHVs) to manage acute malnutrition in the community. This study explored the perceptions of community members regarding acute malnutrition treatment by CHVs in Turkana and Isiolo counties in Kenya. The study utilized a cross-sectional study design and included a purposive sample of caregivers of children, CHVs, officers who trained and supervised CHVs and community leaders in the intervention area. Focus group discussions and key informant interviews were used to explore perceptions towards the management of acute malnutrition by CHVs. Generally, caregivers and CHVs perceived the intervention to be beneficial as it readily addressed acute malnutrition treatment needs in the community. The intervention was perceived to be acceptable, effective, and easily accessible. The community health structure provided a platform for commodity supply and management and CHV support supervision. This was a major enabler in implementing the intervention. The intervention faced operational and systemic challenges that should be considered before scale-up.

Women's seed entrepreneurship in aquaculture, maize, and poultry value chains in Ghana, Kenya, and Tanzania

Seed systems are essential to bring good genetic material to farmers. Women farmers, however, have benefited less than men farmers from seed systems in low and middle income countries. We identify factors that inhibit and promote women's success in seed businesses through three case studies of women's and men's entrepreneurship across seed-related value chains and country contexts: tilapia seed production in Ghana, marketing and trading of improved maize and sorghum seeds in Kenya, and chicken seed dissemination in Tanzania. Applying a gender lens, we use key informant interviews and focus group discussions to analyze women's and men's motivations to engage in seed businesses, the challenges they confront to start and build their enterprises, and prospects for sustainability and continued success. We use quantitative data to characterize the levels of empowerment of the agripreneurs sampled. For women, the results show that the social normative context of the sector is critical. Time flexibility and profitability are important considerations for women's engagement. Furthermore, across all three country cases, family and external support are frequently key to women's participation and success in seed agripreneurship. The article discusses the importance of government bodies, NGOs, and donors in challenging the normative context around gender resource gaps, as well as provide technical packages and training to develop business acumen. Supporting change of restrictive gender norms in non-threatening ways - such as ICTs - is key.

Prevalence and correlates of stunting among a high-risk population of Kenyan children recently hospitalized for acute illnesses

Stunting (length/height-for-age z-score < –2) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality among children under 5 years of age in sub-Saharan Africa. Children who are stunted and recently hospitalized for acute illness may be at particularly elevated risk for post-discharge mortality. In this cross-sectional analysis, we measured the prevalence of stunting at hospital discharge and identified host, caregiver, and environmental correlates of stunting among children aged 1–59 months in Western Kenya enrolled in the Toto Bora Trial. Child age- and site-adjusted prevalence ratios were estimated using Poisson regression. Of the 1,394 children included in this analysis, 23% were stunted at hospital discharge. Older children (12–23 months and 24–59 months versus 0–5 months) had a higher prevalence of stunting (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR]: 1.58; 95% CI: 1.04–2.36 and aPR: 1.59; 95% CI: 1.08–2.34, respectively). HIV-exposed, uninfected children (aPR: 1.94; 95% CI: 1.39–2.70), children with HIV infection (aPR: 2.73; 95% CI: 1.45–5.15), and those who were never exclusively breastfed in early life (aPR 2.51; 95% CI: 1.35–4.67) were more likely to be stunted. Caregiver education (primary school or less) and unimproved sanitation (pit latrine without slab floor or open defecation) were associated with increased risk of stunting (aPR: 1.94; 95% CI: 1.54–2.44; aPR: 1.99; 95% CI: 1.20–3.31; aPR: 3.57; 95% CI: 1.77–7.21, respectively). Hospital discharge represents an important opportunity for both identifying and delivering targeted interventions for nutrition-associated poor outcomes among a high-risk population of children.

Modelling policies to improve affordability and consumptionof nutritious foods for complementary feeding in Kenya

In Kenya 26% of children under age 5 experience stunted growth, 4% are wasted and 11% are underweight. In pregnant women, the prevalence of iron deficiency is 36% and iron-deficiency anaemia prevalence is 26%. Previous studies have identified affordability as a key barrier to the intake of nutrients, particularly from animal-source foods (ASFs). Thus, this study analyzes to what extent the affordability of ASF in Kenya can be improved. It focuses on four ASFs: eggs, milk, chicken and beef. Using a computable general equilibrium model, three policy simulations were undertaken to establish the impact of potential changes on nutritious ASF availability and affordability: a 20% increase in total factor productivity (TFP) for the four products; a 20% TFP increase plus a 25% reduction in trade and transportation margins; and a 20% TFP increase for ASF and maize (a key input in animal feed). Simulations suggest increasing the productivity of the four ASF products would increase their availability and lower consumer prices (up to 17% lower). Household consumption of the four commodities would increase, resulting in improved household dietary diversity. Rural households would gain more compared with urban households. Poor households (the lowest 40%) would register larger welfare (Equivalent Variation) gains than other households in both urban and rural areas. The richest 20% of the population would neither lose nor gain following the policy changes. Reducing transportation costs and trade margins and increasing maize productivity could further reduce the price of ASFs through lower production costs and increased consumption.

Potential effectiveness of integrating human milk banking and lactation support on neonatal outcomes at Pumwani Maternity Hospital, Kenya

We assessed the potential effectiveness of human milk banking and lactation support on provision of human milk to neonates admitted in the newborn unit (NBU) at Pumwani Maternity Hospital, Kenya. This pre–post intervention study collected data from mothers/caregivers and their vulnerable neonates or term babies who lacked sufficient mother's milk for several reasons admitted in the NBU. The intervention included establishing a human milk bank and strengthening lactation support. Preintervention data were collected between 5 October 2018 and 11 November 2018, whereas postintervention data were collected between 4 September 2019 and 6 October 2019. Propensity score-matched analysis was performed to assess the effect of the intervention on exclusive use of human milk, use of human milk as the first feed, feeding intolerance and duration of NBU stay. The surveys included 123 and 116 newborns at preintervention and postintervention, respectively, with 160 newborns (80 in each group) being included in propensity score matched analysis. The proportion of neonates who exclusively used human milk during NBU stay increased from 41.3% preintervention to 63.8% postintervention (adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 2.68; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.31, 5.53) and those whose first feed was human milk increased from 55.0% preintervention to 83.3% postintervention (adjusted OR: 5.09; 95% CI: 2.18, 11.88). The mean duration of NBU stay was 27% (95% CI: 5.8%, 44.0%) lower in the postintervention group than in the preintervention group. The intervention did not affect feeding intolerance. Integrating human milk banking and lactation support may improve exclusive use of human milk among vulnerable neonates in a resource limited setting.

Dairy consumption and household diet quality in East Africa: Evidence from survey-based simulation models

Dairy foods are an important source of essential macro- and micronutrients in household diets, and their consumption is associated with reduced malnutrition, especially among young children. Low dairy consumption in many developing countries is a justification for programs that promote dairy livestock ownership, help develop dairy value chains, or stimulate dairy demand. While several studies confirm the beneficial effects of such dairy-specific interventions on nutritional outcomes, the purpose in this study is to consider more broadly the contribution of dairy to overall diet quality. Our assessment of consumer preferences for dairy, coupled with simulations of consumption responses to dairy price and household income changes, provide quantitative evidence that can inform policymakers about the possible effects of public policies on dairy consumption and diet quality. While our analysis is based on data from Kenya and Uganda, both countries with established dairy sectors, our findings are relevant for other East African countries with similar dietary patterns and emergent dairy sectors.

Synergies and trade-offs between agricultural export promotion and food security: Evidence from African economies

Several countries across the developing world have designed and implemented agricultural export incentives. However, little is known about the effects of these policies on various aspects of domestic food security. This study utilizes economywide models linked top-down with microsimulation modules to analyze the impacts of increased agricultural export promotion on the four dimensions of food security – availability, access, utilization, and stability – in three structurally food-insecure economies of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda. We find that agro-export promotion adversely affects all four aspects of food security in urban areas and at the national level due to significant increases in food prices domestically. However, it generally benefits households in rural areas. The food security effects are stronger in Ethiopia and Kenya. We also find that risks associated with the volatility in international markets and declines in domestic productivity can lead to further deterioration in access to food when countries implement outward-oriented agricultural policies

Liquid milk: Savings, insurance and side-selling in cooperatives

Limited access to reliable financial instruments makes it difficult for rural households to manage daily cash flows. Selling goods through cooperatives can improve savings, but cooperative income is not easily accessible when facing an emergency. Cash-constrained households may therefore side-sell in local markets that pay on the spot, while insurance could reduce the need to side-sell. We test these hypotheses using panel data for farmers from two Kenyan dairy cooperatives. Both cooperatives pay only once a month, with local market vendors paying a lower price but upon delivery. We find that farmers sell less milk to the cooperatives when facing uninsured health emergencies or when cash on hand is low. Health insurance reduces side-selling. These findings highlight that selling, saving and risk-coping decisions are intertwined, with side-selling providing a strategy to manage temporary cash constraints. This suggests that linking agricultural and insurance contracts can enhance cooperatives’ financial sustainability.

Aspirations and investments in livestock: Evidence of aspiration failure in Kenya

Aspirations influence future-oriented behavior and ensuing outcomes but they may also fail to do so when the aspired-to-status is far away from the current one. Theoretical predictions suggest an inverted U-shaped relationship between this aspiration gap and the effort to achieve what is aspired to. Aspirations that are ahead but not too far ahead of the current status serve as the best incentives for investments. We examine the income aspiration gap of smallholder households and relate it to livestock in a pastoral setting in Northern Kenya. Our focus on livestock is guided by the burgeoning recognition of livestock as an investment and saving conduit for many households in pastoral communities in developing nations. Employing different empirical strategies including parametric and semi-parametric techniques, we find livestock to be increasing with aspirations up to a threshold, from which it then declines to lead to an aspiration failure. Delving into livestock heterogeneity, we uncover evidence that cattle and poultry respond more to the aspiration gap than small ruminants such as sheep and goats. Different U-shaped tests confirm this relationship, bolstering the evidence of an aspiration failure. These findings are robust to the inclusion of relevant controls, truncations at zero, and different variable transformations. We also show that the findings are unlikely to be driven by unobserved heterogeneity. Additionally, we find that internal locus of control, that is the degree to which individuals believe they control outcomes in their lives is associated with livestock investments.

Basic human values drive food choice decision-making in different food environments of Kenya and Tanzania

Increased access to a variety of foods in low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs) has led to greater autonomy in food choice decision-making. Autonomy allows individuals to make decisions through negotiation of considerations in ways that are consistent with basic values. The aim of this study was to identify and describe how basic human values drive food choice in two diverse populations with transitioning food environments living in the neighboring East African countries of Kenya and Tanzania. Secondary data analysis was carried out on focus group discussions conducted with men and women in Kenya (n = 28) and Tanzania (n = 28) as part of prior studies on food choice. A priori coding based on Schwartz's theory of basic human values was conducted, followed by a narrative comparative analysis, which included review by original principal investigators. Values of conservation (security, conformity, tradition), openness to change (self-directed thought and action, stimulation, indulgence), self-enhancement (achievement, power, face), and self-transcendence (benevolence-dependability and -caring) were prominent drivers of food choice in both settings. Participants described how values were negotiated and highlighted existing tensions. For example, the value of tradition was cited as important in both settings but changing food contexts (e.g., new foods, diverse neighborhoods) increased prioritization of values like stimulation, indulgence, and self-directed thought and action. The application of a basic values framework was useful for understanding food choice in both settings. A focused understanding of how values drive food choice decision-making in the context of changing food availability in LMICs is essential for the promotion of sustainable healthy diets.

The gendered consequences of COVID-19 for internal migration

Scant evidence exists to identify the effects of the pandemic on migrant women and the unique barriers on employment they endure. We merge longitudinal data from mobile phone surveys with subnational data on COVID cases to examine whether women were left more immobile and vulnerable to health risks, relative to men, during the pandemic in Kenya and Nigeria. Each survey interviewed approximately 2000 men and women over three rounds (November 2020–January 2021, March–April 2021, November 2021–January 2022). Linear regression analysis reveals internal migrants are no more vulnerable to knowing someone in their network with COVID. Rather, rural migrant women in Kenya and Nigeria were less vulnerable to transmission through their network, perhaps related to the possible wealth accumulation from migration or acquired knowledge of averting health risks from previous destinations. Per capita exposure to COVID cases hinders the inter-regional migration of women in both countries. Exposure to an additional COVID case per 10,000 people resulted in a decline in women’s interregional migration by 6 and 2 percentage points in Kenya and Nigeria, respectively.

COVID-19 disruptions and pivoting in SMEs in the hidden middle of Kenya’s potato and fish value chains

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Kenya were severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and restrictions put in place to contain it. This study assesses the impact of these restrictions on the midstream of the potato and fish value chains, with a focus on traders and processors, and investigates the short- and longer-term responses and ‘pivoting’ strategies deployed by these firms. Longitudinal data were collected from 937 respondents with three recall periods: (1) the pre-pandemic situation (2019); (2) the period of strictest restrictions, necessitating immediate adaptations by firms (2020); and (3) a period of anticipated recovery with longer-term business adaptation strategies (2021). Firms in both value chains reported a dramatic drop in turnover in 2020. Potato SMEs partially recovered in 2021, but fish SMEs reported further declines in turnover. In the face of restrictions, SMEs shifted toward more localized procurement and sales, shorter supply chains (often by-passing intermediaries and increasing use of contracts), use of smaller vehicles, and toward the adoption of information and communication technology (ICT) to search for and engage with business partners. Smaller firms and the biggest of businesses were more resilient and less subject to large fluctuations in business turnover, suggesting an inverted U-shape relationship between firm size and impact. Firms located close to production areas and selling primarily within their own county were also less affected. We provide recommendations for increasing business resilience to shocks based on these findings.

Land market responses to weather shocks: Evidence from rural Uganda and Kenya

This study explores the responses of rural land markets to rainfall shocks in Uganda and Kenya. This study matches the panel data on farm households with rainfall shocks constructed using high-resolution precipitation and temperature data. In both countries, access to credit plays a key role in defining households’ land market responses to rainfall shocks. Households with access to credit respond to rainfall shocks by acquiring more farmland through increased participation in land rental and sales markets. Pathway analyses suggest that exposure to rainfall shock has an impact on land rental prices. There is some evidence that similar to grain reserves and livestock, land markets can provide an avenue for households to respond to rainfall shocks.

Upside risk, consumption value, and market returns to food safety

We investigate the effect of a modest food safety premium on semisubsistence farmers' investment in a food safety technology. We demonstrate theoretically that in the face of production uncertainty, a market incentive below the marginal production cost of achieving the safety standard can increase food safety investment among farmers motivated by private health returns. We test this prediction through a randomized controlled trial in Kenya through which members of existing farmer groups were offered an opportunity to purchase a food safety input, and half were offered a 5% market premium for produce that met the associated regulatory standard. Access to the premium more than doubled investment in the food safety technology. In line with the model's prediction, most premium-induced adoption was by farmers motivated by a combination of health and financial rewards.

Antenatal care is associated with adherence to iron supplementation among pregnant women in selected low-middle-income-countries of Asia, Africa, and Latin America & the Caribbean regions: Insights from Demographic and Health Surveys

Anaemia is a global public health problem affecting 800 million women and children globally. Anaemia is associated with perinatal mortality, child morbidity and mortality, mental development, immune competence, susceptibility to lead poisoning and performance at work. The objective of this article is to identify whether antenatal care-seeking was associated with the uptake of iron supplementation among pregnant women, adjusting for a range of covariates. This article used data from the cross-sectional recent Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) of 12 countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America & the Caribbean regions. The individual-level data from 273,144 women of reproductive age (15−49 years) were analysed from multi-country DHS. Multiple Logistic regression analyses were conducted using Predictive Analytics Software for Windows (PASW), Release 18.0. Receiving at least four antenatal care visits was significantly associated with the consumption of 90 or more iron-containing supplements in 12 low and middle income countries across three regions after adjusting for different household and respondent characteristics, while mass media exposure was found to be a significant predictor in India and Indonesia. Antenatal care seems to be the most important predictor of adherence to iron intake in the selected countries across Africa, Asia, Latin America and Caribbean regions.

Malaria control and elimination in Kenya: Economy-wide benefits and regional disparities

Background Malaria remains a public health problem in Kenya despite several concerted control efforts. Empirical evidence regarding malaria effects in Kenya suggests that the disease imposes substantial economic costs, jeopardizing the achievement of sustainable development goals. The Kenya Malaria Strategy (2019–2023), which is currently being implemented, is one of several sequential malaria control and elimination strategies. The strategy targets reducing malaria incidences and deaths by 75% of the 2016 levels by 2023 through spending around Kenyan Shillings 61.9 billion over 5 years. This paper assesses the economy-wide implications of implementing this strategy. Methods An economy-wide simulation model is calibrated to a comprehensive 2019 database for Kenya, considering different epidemiological zones. Two scenarios are simulated with the model. The first scenario (GOVT) simulates the annual costs of implementing the Kenya Malaria Strategy by increasing government expenditure on malaria control and elimination programmes. The second scenario (LABOR) reduces malaria incidences by 75% in all epidemiological malaria zones without accounting for the changes in government expenditure, which translates into rising the household labour endowment (benefits of the strategy). Results Implementing the Kenya Malaria Strategy (2019–2023) enhances gross domestic product at the end of the strategy implementation period due to more available labour. In the short term, government health expenditure (direct malaria costs) increases significantly, which is critical in controlling and eliminating malaria. Expanding the health sector raises the demand for production factors, such as labour and capital. The prices for these factors rise, boosting producer and consumer prices of non-health-related products. Consequently, household welfare decreases during the strategy implementation period. In the long run, household labour endowment increases due to reduced malaria incidences and deaths (indirect malaria costs). However, the size of the effects varies across malaria epidemiological and agroecological zones depending on malaria prevalence and factor ownership. Conclusions This paper provides policymakers with an ex-ante assessment of the implications of malaria control and elimination on household welfare across various malaria epidemiological zones. These insights assist in developing and implementing related policy measures that reduce the undesirable effects in the short run. Besides, the paper supports an economically beneficial long-term malaria control and elimination effect.

Consumer demand for milk and the informal dairy sector amidst COVID-19 in Nairobi, Kenya

Background
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had large negative effects on countries’ economies and individual well-being throughout the world, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Pandemic-related changes in behavior and government restrictions in Kenya may have negatively affected food supply chains and household food access, but the empirical evidence is currently limited.

Objective
The study explored changes in informal milk markets, dairy consumption, and food insecurity among low-income households in urban and peri-urban Nairobi, Kenya, following the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country.

Methods
Baseline data on milk sales and consumption were collected in late 2019 from dairy vendors operating in the informal sector and their dairy customers. We conducted two longitudinal telephone-surveys with the same study participants in July and September-October 2020, respectively.

Results
At the first follow up, the volume of milk sold by informal vendors had dropped by 30% compared to their baseline level and the volume of milk from informal markets consumed by households decreased by 23%. By the second follow up, the volume of milk sold and consumed had recovered somewhat but remained lower than the volume observed one year prior in the same season. Large reductions in the consumption of other animal-source products were also observed. The rate of food insecurity increased by 16 and 11 percentage points in the first and second follow up periods, respectively compared to baseline.

Conclusions
The evidence therefore suggests that the timing of the pandemic and the related restrictions were associated with a decrease in the supply and consumption of milk from informal markets in Nairobi, and a decrease in the food security of peri-urban consumers.

Domestic burdens amid COVID-19 and women’s mental health in middle-income Africa

This article analyzes two longitudinal datasets (October – December 2020; April 2021) of 1,000 and 900 women in Kenya and Nigeria, respectively, alongside in-depth qualitative interviews with women at risk of changes to time use, to study two pandemic issues: women’s substitution of paid for unpaid work and how these shifts compromise their mental health. Women devote more time to domestic care (30–38 percent), less time to employment (29–46 percent), and become unemployed (12–17 percent). A rise in domestic work is correlated with depressive (Nigeria) and anxiety symptoms (Kenya and Nigeria). Women with greater agency (Kenya) and fewer children (Nigeria) are less likely to report a domestic burden or loss in paid activities. Social protection programs may fill the void of assistance traditionally provided by informal networks in the short term, while campaigns shifting norms around household work may preserve women’s economic participation in the long term.

Gender-inclusive, -responsive, and -transformative agricultural insurance: A literature review

Assessing food security among young farmers in Africa: Evidence from Kenya, Nigeria, and Uganda

Food insecurity remains a serious challenge for many households in Africa and the situation is even more prevalent among young people. However, there is a dearth of empirical evidence on youth food security status in Africa. We assessed the level and determinants of food security among young farmers in Africa. We adopted a multi-stage sampling technique to select 400, 429, and 606 young farmers in Kenya, Nigeria, and Uganda, respectively. Individual food consumption was assessed following a 7 days recall method. The Food Consumption Score, which combines dietary diversity and consumption frequency was used to assess food security status while the determinants of food security were identified using a logistic regression model. Results suggest low dietary diversity across the three countries. Also, the majority of the respondents had an unacceptable food consumption score, suggesting that despite being food producers, young farmers are still food insecure. The odds of being food secure was positively determined by access to extension services, participation in the ENABLE TAAT business incubation programme, and access to market information but, negatively by access to credit, number of employees, Covid-19 pandemic, and location. Additionally, the food security status of young female farmers was positively influenced by age, suggesting that younger youths are less food secure compared to older ones. These results suggest that more efforts should be directed towards improving the food security of young African farmers and that policy- and programme-level interventions should support access to extension services, market information, and land. Additionally, more investments should be directed towards developing need-based agribusiness incubation programmes with an effort to scale existing programmes beyond the regular one-time period.

Action against invasive species: Charcoal production, beekeeping, and Prosopis eradication in Kenya

Prosopis juliflora is an invasive alien leguminous tree introduced as a way of combating desertification, deforestation, and improving soil fertility. Over time, the tree has reported significant negative externalities to farmers. Different strategies such as management through utilization and complete eradication have been proposed to reduce these externalities. We investigate the various factors associated with adherence to these strategies. In the first place, we assess the correlates of charcoal production, beekeeping, and willingness to completely eradicate Prosopis. We then examine the welfare effects of charcoal production and beekeeping. We use survey data from 530 smallholder households in the Baringo county of Kenya who are currently contending with infestation from the invasive tree. Besides other factors, we show that a positive perception about Prosopis invasion increases the probability of engaging in charcoal production and is adversely related to beekeeping and the willingness to completely eradicate Prosopis. Delving into welfare and poverty effects of these activities, we find charcoal production to be income increasing. We argue that a blend of both management and eradication of Prosopis could offer a win-win solution to both improving the welfare and socio-economic conditions of households while also ensuring environmental and ecological safeguards, with implications for broad-based sustainability.

COVID-19 in rural Africa: Food access disruptions, food insecurity and coping strategies in Kenya, Namibia, and Tanzania

This study assesses the extent of COVID-19-related food insecurity in Kenya, Tanzania, and Namibia. Using the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale, we measure food insecurity in various dimensions and document several food access disruptions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic between April and July 2020. Furthermore, we assess the association of COVID-19 countermeasures with the adoption of various strategies in line with the coping strategies index. We rely on a unique phone survey that followed households who participated in an earlier field-based survey. First, through Ordinary Least-Squares and Probit regressions, we show a strong and statistically significant association between COVID-19 countermeasures and food access disruptions and food insecurity in each of the three countries. We then use a multivariate probit regression model to understand the use of the various coping strategies, including reducing food intake, increasing food search, and relying more on less nutritious foods. We provide evidence on the complementarities and trade-offs in using these coping strategies. COVID-19 and related lockdown measures coincided with a deleterious increase in food insecurity in rural Africa.

From food price crisis to an equitable food system

In 2022, the world is experiencing the greatest cost of living crisis in a generation.1 Crises have always highlighted inequities in our societies. With food prices at near record levels globally, rapidly rising inflation, and economic instability, many people living in situations of constraint have no choice but to skip meals, reduce the amount they eat, prepare meals with fewer nutritious foods, and buy cheaper, starchy staples and ultra-processed foods.2, 3 The implications for health inequalities are dire: increased dietary disparities will worsen food insecurity, undernutrition, obesity, and diet-related disease among those who are struggling most.

Does balancing gender composition lead to more prosocial outcomes? Experimental evidence of equality in public goods and extraction games from rural Kenya

There is resurging interest in community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) as an approach for achieving global biodiversity conservation goals. Yet, CBNRM remains dominated by men, elevating the importance of designing programs that give voice and agency to women. Arguments for increasing gender balance within CBNRM often assume women have strong preferences for equality and altruism and would therefore be better environmental stewards. Evidence on the effect of gender balance on commons management, however, remains mixed. We report on two framed field experimental games with community members directly engaged in the use and management of natural resources in rural Kenya. Participants were randomly assigned to single-gender (all male n = 23; all female n = 28) or mixed gender groups (n = 36) to assess the role of gender composition on group and individual decisions. The two games provide unique insights into the give (public good games) and take (extraction games) decisions common in natural resource management. We find mixed gender groups tend to achieve more socially optimal outcomes than single-gender groups in the public goods game context, but all male groups tended to conserve the most in the extraction game. Women are not necessarily more likely to make prosocial decisions than men, and factors such as framing and social relations affect decisions. Our results indicate gender composition affects group decision-making and is therefore important for commons management, and that mixed gender groups can be more effective than single-gender groups. Improving gender balance in CBNRM may help achieve more desirable outcomes from a social and conservation perspective but understanding decision-making contexts is critical.

Gendered barriers and opportunities in Kenya's informal dairy sector: enhancing gender-equity in urban markets

Informal milk trading in peri-urban Nairobi plays a key role in supporting both livelihoods and nutrition, particularly among poor households. Gender dynamics affect who is involved in and benefits from milk trading. To better understand gendered constraints and opportunities in informal, peri-urban dairy marketing, a qualitative study was conducted in 2017 with 45 men and 50 women milk traders in Dagoretti, a peri-urban area of Nairobi, Kenya. The findings show that milk trading is more lucrative for older men than for women and younger men among the respondents. This article illustrates the differences between these women’s and men’s experiences as milk traders and explores the reasons behind these differences. It discusses the implications of the findings for agricultural research and development interventions that aim to enhance the sustainability and equity of the dairy sector.

Can information drive demand for safer food? Impact of brand-specific recommendations and test results on product choice

As an unobservable attribute, food safety is likely to be under-provided by markets where regulatory enforcement is weak. In such settings, stimulating consumer demand for safer food can potentially encourage market actors to invest in food safety. Through a randomized trial in Kenya, we test the impact of informing consumers about which maize flour brands are most likely to comply with the regulatory standard for aflatoxin, a carcinogenic fungal byproduct. Providing information on safer brands alone does not significantly affect consumption behavior. However, when the same information is combined with a test performed on the maize flour stocked by the household, the likelihood that a safer brand is consumed 2 months later is 76% higher than in the comparison group. Our findings suggest that providing information on the relative riskiness of substitute foods could encourage consumers to make safer choices.

Action on invasive species: Control strategies of Parthenium hysterophorus L. on smallholder farms in Kenya

Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae) is an invasive alien weed with detrimental effects on agricultural production, biodiversity, human and animal health, threating rural livelihoods in Asia and Africa. The problem emerged recently in the Kenyan Rift Valley, where it began to affect the landholdings of both agro-pastoralists and crop farmers. These vulnerable smallholders depend heavily on natural resources for their livelihoods. In this study, we assessed the severity of parthenium invasion and farmers’ management responses using a sample of 530 agro-pastoralists in Baringo County, Kenya, in 2019. We hypothesise that the implementation of existing management strategies depends on the state of parthenium invasion and household socio-economic characteristics. The prevalence and severity of parthenium invasion differed greatly among field plots. To control weeds, farmers resort to either hand weeding, the use of synthetic herbicides, or intensive tillage, sometimes in combination with mulching. A multivariate probit regression model shows that households’ characteristics determine the type of control strategies used as well as their complementarity and substitutability. Hand weeding is the most common option, adopted by almost 40% of farmers. The use of agrochemicals or soil-based control strategies appears to be related to knowledge and information characteristics such as access to extension services, membership in organisations and the educational level of household heads. While hand weeding and the use of synthetic herbicides depict significant substitutability, the latter strategy is limited to a few larger farms with market-oriented production. As parthenium invasion continues, policies need to improve farmer awareness and access to knowledge to enable pro-poor and environmentally sustainable control of parthenium on smallholder farms.

Multistakeholder platforms for natural resource governance: Lessons from eight landscape-level cases

Multistakeholder platforms (MSPs) are the subject of increasing attention and investment in the domain of collaborative natural resource governance, yet evidence-based guidance is slim on policy and investment priorities to leverage the MSP approach. We provide a comparative analysis of eight landscape-level MSPs spanning seven countries (Peru, Brazil, India, Tanzania, Ethiopia, and a cross-border case from Kenya and Somalia), representing a diversity of resource systems covering forests, rangelands, and multiuse agricultural landscapes. Applying an adapted social-ecological systems framework, our synthesis identifies the influence of these MSPs on patterns of stakeholder interaction and draws implications for the design and organization of MSPs that are both appropriate and effective. From the cases, we distill lessons addressing: (1) how to design an MSP in relation to the governance context, including the fit between institutional and ecological dimensions of the system and with attention to cross-scale linkages; (2) how to implement inclusive processes that address power inequities, including through capacity building and procedural rules; and (3) how to support adaptive learning to expand the MSP’s influence over time, including monitoring outcomes, adapting the scope of stakeholder engagement, and investing in MSP durability.

Ecological shocks and non-cognitive skills: Evidence from Kenya

Non-cognitive skills such as locus of control (LOC) and self-efficacy have been theoretically shown to influence behavioural and economic decision-making. While this effect has been confirmed empirically, the factors that can induce change in non-cognitive skills are not yet fully understood. Examining exogenous variation in the spread of invasive species, this study investigates the association between an ecological shock and non-cognitive skills through a survey of smallholder households in Baringo county Kenya. The results show an adverse relationship between ecological shocks and LOC. Individuals are less likely to believe that they have control over outcomes in their lives when faced with shocks. The study also demonstrates a negative association of shocks with self-efficacy which is related to the perceived judgement of capability. In addition to robustness to alternative specifications and the inclusion of additional relevant controls, we establish that the results are unlikely to be driven by unobserved heterogeneity. We find further suggestive evidence indicating that ecological shocks lead to economic adversity, which may well explain reductions in individuals' perceptions of capability and the extent of convictions regarding control over their lives. Overall, ecological shocks diminish perceived LOC and self-efficacy, with associated policy implications for poverty reduction.

Mechanization, digitalization, and rural youth-stakeholder perceptions on three mega-topics for agricultural transformation in four African countries

Mechanization, digitalization, and rural youth engagement are central to African agricultural transformation. Each of these topics is associated with debates on opportunities, risks, and appropriate policy actions, which become visible in international research discourses and policy fora. In contrast, little is known about the viewpoints of national stakeholders. This paper explores the viewpoints of 195 respondents from different stakeholders categories in Benin, Kenya, Nigeria, and Mali. The results reveal hitherto neglected aspects, e.g., the role of animal traction, the continued appeal of state-led mechanization, and data sovereignty concerns. Gender, age, and education influence the viewpoints on some topics. Paying attention to local stakeholders can help to choose and design the most promising policies/programs and ensure their implementation on the ground.

Food insecurity and COVID-19 risk in low- and middle-income countries

The COVID-19 pandemic prompted social distancing, workplace closures, and restrictions on mobility and trade that had cascading effects on economic activity, food prices, and employment in low- and middle-income countries. Using longitudinal data from Bangladesh, Kenya, and Nigeria covering a period from October 2020 to April 2021, the paper assesses whether knowledge of a person infected with COVID-19 is associated with food insecurity, job loss and business closures, and coping strategies to smooth consumption. The likelihood of households to experience food insecurity at the extensive and intensive margins increased among those who knew an infected person in Bangladesh and Kenya.

Sustainable aquaculture development in sub-Saharan Africa

Aquaculture must grow above the current rate of 11% per year to meet projected demand and reduce dependence on seafood imports. Government support and private investment are urgently needed for sustainable growth.

Milk product safety and household food hygiene influence bacterial contamination of infant food in peri-urban Kenya

Background: Milk is a common infant food in peri-urban Kenya that can transmit diarrhea-causing enteric pathogens. Little is known about how contamination of milk at point of purchase and household handling of milk-based infant foods contribute to infant exposure to enteric pathogens.

Objective: To compare the prevalence and concentrations of bacterial indicator organisms and enteric pathogens in unpackaged, fresh pasteurized, and ultra-high temperature (UHT) treated milk at purchase and assess the influence of the type of milk used to prepare infant food on contamination of this food.

Methods: Paired samples of purchased milk and infant food prepared with this milk were obtained from 188 households in low-income neighborhoods in Kisumu, Kenya. Samples were cultured on selective media to isolate Salmonella enterica, Shigella spp., Klebsiella aerogenes, Proteus spp., and Escherichia coli, with pathogens validated by PCR. Probability of detection of these bacteria was compared by milk product treatment and packaging method, and between milk at point of purchase vs. food at point of infant consumption.

Results: Unpackaged milk was most contaminated at point of purchase, but bacterial contamination was also present in pasteurized and UHT milk at purchase. Presence of bacteria in UHT and fresh pasteurized milk at purchase predicted presence of the same bacteria type in infant food. Prevalence of bacterial contamination and concentration level for bacterial indicators generally increased between point of purchase and consumption in UHT and fresh pasteurized milk-based food but decreased in unpackaged milk-based food. Prevalence of the four fecal bacteria were similar in infant foods prepared with each type of milk.

Conclusion: Both pre-market contamination and post-purchase handling influence the likelihood of infants ingesting foods contaminated by diarrheal pathogens.

Bacteroides microbial source tracking markers perform poorly in predicting Enterobacteriaceae and enteric pathogen contamination of cow milk products and milk-containing infant food

Consumption of microbiologically contaminated food is one of the leading causes of diarrheal diseases. Understanding the source of enteric pathogens in food is important to guide effective interventions. Enterobacteriaceae bacterial assays typically used to assess food safety do not shed light on the source. Source-specific Bacteroides microbial source tracking (MST) markers have been proposed as alternative indicators for water fecal contamination assessment but have not been evaluated as an alternative fecal indicator in animal-derived foods. This study tested various milk products collected from vendors in urban Kenyan communities and infant foods made with the milk (n = 394 pairs) using conventional culture methods and TaqMan qPCR for enteric pathogens and human and bovine-sourced MST markers. Detection profiles of various enteric pathogens and Bacteroides MST markers in milk products differed from that of milk-containing infant foods. MST markers were more frequently detected in infant food prepared by caregivers, indicating recent contamination events were more likely to occur during food preparation at home. However, Bacteroides MST markers had lower sensitivity in detecting enteric pathogens in food than traditional Enterobacteriaceae indicators. Bacteroides MST markers tested in this study were not associated with the detection of culturable Salmonella enterica and Shigella sonnei in milk products or milk-containing infant food. The findings show that while Bacteroides MST markers could provide valuable information about how foods become contaminated, they may not be suitable for predicting the origin of the enteric pathogen contamination sources.

Supermarket contracts, opportunity cost and trade-offs, and farm household welfare: Panel data evidence from Kenya

Improving food safety on the farm: Experimental evidence from Kenya on incentives and subsidies for technology adoption

Evidence is emerging that foodborne illness accounts for a staggering health burden in developing countries. However, standard approaches used by developed country governments to ensure food safety are not appropriate in settings where regulatory enforcement capacity is weak and most firms are small and informal. Using a randomized field experiment, we test the impacts of subsidies and a price premium for safer produce on farmer adoption of technologies that improve food safety. We find that the food safety practices of farmers who produce maize for sale are inferior to those of farmers who produce maize only for household consumption, but that both a price incentive and technology subsidies can partially close this gap. We combine our experimental adoption results with prior evidence on the efficacy of the technologies studied to simulate the public health impacts of alternative policies. Our simulations show that interventions to reduce aflatoxin exposure are likely to be cost-effective based on averted poisoning deaths and cancer cases alone. Potential impacts on stunting, which are not as well established and more difficult to value, would imply additional health benefits. Of the options considered, providing training and plastic drying sheets to farmers free of charge is the most cost-effective.

On the power of microwave communication data to monitor rain for agricultural needs in Africa

Over the last two decades, prevalent technologies and Internet of Things (IoT) systems have been found to have potential for carrying out environmental monitoring. The data generated from these infrastructures are readily available and have the potential to provide massive spatial coverage. The costs involved in using these data are minimal since the records are already generated for the original uses of these systems. Commercial microwave links, which provide the underlying framework for data transfer between cellular network base stations, are one example of such a system and have been found useful for monitoring rainfall. Wireless infrastructure of this kind is deployed widely by communication providers across Africa and can thus be used as a rainfall monitoring device to complement the sparse proprietary resources that currently exist or to substitute for them where alternatives do not exist. Here we focus this approach’s potential to acquire valuable information required for agricultural needs across Africa using Kenya as an example.

Within-season producer response to warmer temperatures: Defensive investments by Kenyan farmers

We present evidence that farmers adjust agricultural inputs in response to within-season temperature variation, undertaking defensive investments to reduce the adverse agro-ecological impacts of warmer temperatures. Using panel data from Kenyan maize-growing households, we find that higher temperatures early in the growing season increase the use of pesticides, while reducing fertiliser use. Warmer temperatures throughout the season increase weeding effort. These adjustments arise because greater heat increases the incidence of pests, crop diseases and weeds, compelling farmers to divert investment from productivity-enhancing technologies such as fertiliser to adaptive, loss-reducing, defensive inputs such as pesticides and weeding labour.

Demand for aflatoxin‐safe maize in Kenya: Dynamic response to price and advertising

In countries where regulatory enforcement is weak, voluntary third‐party verification of firms' food safety processes can allow concerned consumers to select safer products. However, due in part to their legal ambiguity, and the potential to attract additional regulatory scrutiny, food safety claims are rarely made by firms. As a result, the impact of such claims on consumer demand is not well understood. We examine how labeling maize as tested for aflatoxin, a carcinogen also associated with stunting in children, affects sales. By randomly varying the timing and intensity of a marketing campaign to promote the first maize flour brand in Kenya labeled as tested for aflatoxin, we characterize dynamic consumer response to information about food safety. We find an immediate response in sales to marketing alone, which disappears as soon as marketing ceases. Sales remain elevated in the weeks after a temporary discount is offered, but this effect also fades over time and is not associated with greater awareness of the firm's food safety claims. These results suggest that it is unrealistic to expect for‐profit firms serving mass markets in low‐ and middle‐income countries to invest heavily in marketing based on food safety claims.

Observability of food safety losses in maize: Evidence from Kenya

Climate-induced migration and unemployment in middle-income Africa

Strengthening coordination among extension service providers for improved provision of agricultural extension and advisory services: A case study from Kenya

Implementation of decentralized and pluralistic policies in provision of extension services has led to increased availability of actors providing extension services to farmers in most developing countries including Kenya. What is unique about extension services providers is that they have a shared goal of improving agricultural productivity. However, in some cases these providers differ in their knowledge regarding the practices or knowledge that is required to improve agricultural productivity. Lack of shared knowledge among providers has contributed to delivery of uncoordinated and duplication of efforts thereby limiting the effectiveness of efforts in extension services delivery. Moreover, in some cases lack of shared knowledge has contributed towards provision of conflicting information which has left farmers confused. Enhancing coordination and collaboration among these representatives is of paramount importance if their efforts to improve agricultural productivity are to be successful. Having structures in place that bring together organizations that have shared goals is an important step in facilitating coordination. This is based on findings of a case study that was conducted in Kenya with the Kenyan Forum for Agricultural Advisory Services (KeFAAS). The results of the study provide insights that can be used as a starting point when strengthening coordination in extension services delivery in decentralized and pluralistic environments.

Uptake of insurance-embedded credit in presence of credit rationing: Evidence from a randomized controlled trial in Kenya

Drought-related climate risk and access to credit are among the major risks to agricultural productivity for smallholder farmers in Kenya. Farmers are usually credit-constrained due to either involuntary quantity rationing or voluntary risk rationing. By exploiting randomized distribution of weather risk-contingent credit (RCC) and traditional credit, the authors estimate the causal effect of bundling weather index insurance to credit on uptake of agricultural credits among rural smallholders in Eastern Kenya. Further, the authors assess farmers' credit rationing, its determinants and effects on credit uptake.The study design was a randomized controlled trial (RCT) conducted in Machakos County, Kenya. 1,170 sample households were randomly assigned to one of three research groups, namely control, RCC and traditional credit. This paper is based on baseline household survey data and the first phase of loan implementation data.The authors find that 48% of the households were price-rationed, 41% were risk-rationed and 11% were quantity-rationed. The average credit uptake rate was 33% with the uptake of bundled credit being significantly higher than that of traditional credit. Risk rationing seems to influence the credit uptake negatively, whereas premium subsidies do not have any significant association with credit uptake. Among the socio-economic variables, training attendance, crop production being the main household head occupation, expenditure on food, maize labour requirement, hired labour, livestock revenue and access to credit are found to influence the credit uptake positively, whereas the expenditure on non-food items is negatively related with credit uptake.The study findings provide important insights on the factors of credit demand. Empirical results suggest that risk rationing is pervasive and discourages farmers to take up credit. The study results also imply that credit demand is inelastic although relatively small sample size for RCC premium subsidy groups may be a limiting factor to the authors’ estimation.By implementing a multi-arm RCT, the authors estimate the factors affecting the uptake of insurance bundled agricultural credits along with eliciting credit rationing among rural smallholders in Eastern Kenya. This paper provides key empirical findings on the uptake of RCC and the effect of credit rationing on uptake of agricultural credits, a field which has been majorly theoretical.

Supermarket contracts and smallholder farmers: Implications for income and multidimensional poverty

Food systems in developing countries are changing rapidly with a growing role of modern supermarkets. Supermarkets influence supply chains and the way agricultural products are sourced from farmers. Especially for the procurement of fresh fruits and vegetables, supermarkets often contract farmers directly to ensure consistent and high-quality supply. One important question, which is addressed here, is whether smallholder farmers benefit from supermarket contracts. Previous studies address this question, but mostly focus on income effects without exploring implications for other dimensions of household welfare, such as nutrition, health, or housing conditions. Moreover, most existing studies rely on cross-section data. We add to the literature by analyzing effects of supermarket contracts on income and multidimensional poverty using three rounds of panel data collected from smallholder vegetable farmers in Kenya and econometric models with household fixed effects. On average, supermarket contracts increase household income by over 40%. We also find significant reductions in income poverty and multidimensional poverty. Quantile regressions show that farmers in all income groups benefit, but richer households benefit more than poorer ones in absolute terms. However, supermarket contracts cause the strongest reductions in multidimensional deprivations among the poorest households.

Value for money? Vote-buying and politician accountability

Disclosure, reporting and help seeking among child survivors of violence: A cross-country analysis

Violence against children is a pervasive public health issue, with limited data available across multiple contexts. This study explores the rarely studied prevalence and dynamics around disclosure, reporting and help-seeking behaviours of children who ever experienced physical and/or sexual violence.

Variation in the factors associated with diet quality of children aged 6 to 23 months in low and high agroecological zones of Rongai Subcounty, Kenya

Adequate quality complementary diets and appropriate feeding practices are important for proper growth and development of young children.To assess factors associated with diet diversity, meal frequency, and acceptable diet of children aged 6 to 23 months in two agroecological zones of Rongai subcounty, Kenya.A cross-sectional study was conducted among 384 mothers/caregivers with children aged 6 to 23 months. A structured questionnaire was used to assess sociodemographic characteristics and child feeding practices. Diet diversity, meal frequency, and acceptable diet were derived from a 24-hour recall of child’s food intake. Factors associated with diet quality were determined using binary logistic regression.Mean child diet diversity score was 3.54 ± 1.0 of 7 food groups, with 56.8% of the children achieving minimum dietary diversity. A majority of the children (81.8%) received minimum meal frequency (MMF), with significant ( P < .05) difference between low (91.1%) and high (75.2%) agricultural potential areas. Children who received minimum acceptable diet (MAD) were only 34.1%. Mother/caregiver education level positively ( P < .05) associated with minimum diet diversity in low potential area (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 3.79, 95% CI: 1.47-9.75) and with MAD in high potential area (AOR = 1.87, 95% CI: 1.01-3.46). Other factors associated with MDD, MMF, and MAD included household income and slow feeding in low potential area, and child gender and active feeding in high potential area.There is a variation in factors associated with diet quality and child feeding practices in different agroecological zones. Therefore, nutrition education and behavior change communication interventions aimed at improving child nutrition should be context-specific.

A respondent-driven method for mapping small agricultural plots using tablets and high resolution imagery

Agricultural statistics on small farms are critical for informing sustainable development policies, but often suffer from selection bias and are time consuming and costly to collect. Less burdensome and reliable methods are needed. We report on a scalable method using a respondent's knowledge about their land, high resolution imagery, and tablet devices to draw spatially explicit plot boundaries. We find the method may work best with respondents that own their plots are farmers, and for smaller plots (<1 hectare). We also find incongruence between survey questions and spatially‐derived data, indicating the importance of incorporating spatial data to verify responses about plot characteristics. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Managing climate risk through crop diversification in rural Kenya

Agricultural growth and sex-disaggregated employment in Africa: Future perspectives under different investment scenarios

Literature is scanty on how public agricultural investments can help reducing the impact of future challenges such as climate change and population pressure on national economies. The objective of this study is to assess the medium and long-term effects of alternative agricultural research and development investment scenarios on male and female employment in 14 African countries. We first estimate the effects of agricultural investment scenarios on the overall GDP growth of a given country using partial and general equilibrium models. Secondly, using employment elasticities to GDP growth, we estimate the impact of GDP growth on overall employment in the economy. Results show that, increased investments in agriculture could generate higher overall employment and reduce gender disparities in labor participation. In 8 out of 14 sampled countries, female employment increased more than male employment in response to agricultural investments. Investment in infrastructure had higher impact on female employment growth compared to productivity scenarios.

Aflatoxin proficiency testing and control in Kenya

Texas A&M AgriLife Research (hereafter AgriLife) introduced a quality systems approach to accurately measure and manage aflatoxin that resulted in improved food safety for approximately 10 million Kenyans. A quality systems approach contains elements that ensure laboratory testing competence. In this study, quality system elements included analyst training and qualification, proficiency testing, use of reference material to support analytical traceability and define analytical uncertainty, development and implementation of a food safety plan by commercial maize (Zea mays) millers, and verification of testing accuracy at the AgriLife laboratory accredited by the Kenya Accreditation Service under the International Organization for Standardization/International Electrotechnical Commission 17025:2005 standard. In 2014 and 2015, five proficiency rounds were performed, ranging in aflatoxin concentrations of 5 to 40 μg/kg. Five laboratories had a z-score of >3, and all of these were for the fifth proficiency round with an aflatoxin content of 5 μg/kg. In 2015, 31 analysts qualified to participate in the program at 15 maize mills. The analysts' qualification for seven test samples, which ranged from 3.1 to 28 μg/kg total aflatoxin, resulted in an average relative standard deviation of 19.2% across all participants and test methods. Independent testing of participating mill verification results before and after analyst implementation of the quality systems approach revealed an improvement in measure accuracy.

Intertemporal choice and income regularity: Non-fungibility in the timing of income among Kenyan farmers

The optimal design of informal contracts in agricultural value chains depends on when farmers prefer to be paid for their output. While the evidence from time preference experiments suggests a preference for early payments, field studies often indicate that farmers will defer regular payments if given the opportunity. In this study, we explicitly test whether farmers are more patient regarding regular, earned income than regarding experimental windfall payments. We asked farmers in a dairy cooperative in Kenya to allocate both their milk income and a one-time gift between an early and a deferred payment date. We find that a large majority of participants deferred their milk payments, while rarely choosing to defer the gift. Participants’ survey responses suggest that we observe this difference because of mental accounting: participants earmarked their regular milk payments, but not the gift, to save for bulky expenditures. We conclude that deferred payments can provide value to producers by functioning as a savings device, even when decisions over windfall income suggest a preference for early payments.

Determinants of actual and potential adoption of improved indigenous chicken under asymmetrical exposure conditions in rural Kenya

Climate and poverty in Africa South of the Sahara

To estimate the effects of weather conditions on welfare globally, cross-country comparisons need to rely on international poverty lines and comparable data sources at the micro-level. To this end, nationally representative household surveys can offer a useful instrument, also at the sub-national level. This study seeks to expand the existing knowledge on the determinants of poverty in Africa south of the Sahara (SSA), examining how long-term climatic conditions and year-specific weather shocks affect expenditure per capita. We take advantage of a novel and unique dataset combining consumption-based household surveys for 24 SSA countries -representative of more than half of the African population and two thirds of SSA- and geospatial information on agro-climatic conditions, market access and other spatial covariates of poverty. To our knowledge, it is the first time that a welfare-based, multidisciplinary, micro-level dataset with such wide spatial coverage has been assembled and examined. Our analysis relies on a linear and spatial model at the household- and district-level, respectively, both controlling for socio-economic, demographic, and geographic confounding factors. Results are consistent across econometric approaches, showing that living in more humid areas is positively associated with welfare, while the opposite occurs living in hotter areas, as existing literature shows. Flood shocks -defined as annual rainfall higher than one standard deviation from the 50-year average- are associated to a 35% decrease in total and food per-capita consumption and 17 percentage point increase in extreme poverty. On the other hand, extreme shortages of rain and heat shocks show an uncertain effect, even when estimates control for spatial correlation between welfare and weather conditions using the spatial error correction model. Given the heterogeneous effects of climatic events across SSA macro-regions, local-specific adaptation and mitigation strategies are suggested to help bringing households on a sustainable path.

Post-harvest practices for aflatoxin control: Evidence from Kenya

We assess the impact of a package of post-harvest technologies on aflatoxin contamination of maize through a randomized trial in rural Kenya. Some elements of this package (training and provision of plastic sheets for sun-drying) were provided free of charge to all participants in treatment villages and were widely adopted. Others (a mobile drying service and hermetic storage bags) were provided free to a subset of randomly selected farmers in treatment villages while others had to pay. Overall, the intervention reduced aflatoxin contamination by over 50%. Most of this reduction appears to be due training and the use of drying sheets, the lowest-cost of all the technologies offered.

Variance structure of aflatoxin contaminated maize in incoming trucks at commercial mills in Kenya

Aflatoxin contamination in maize represents a significant food safety hazard in Kenya. To manage this risk, millers need to properly sample incoming bags of maize. In this study, three firms allowed researchers access to sample three incoming trucks each to quantify sources of variability using a hierarchical sampling design. A total of 180 samples consisting of two samples per bag, ten bags per truck, three trucks per mill, and three mills were sampled in April of 2014 and analyzed for aflatoxins using the Romer-FluorQuant test method. Samples from three trucks were analyzed twice for aflatoxin to define intra-bag variability, and extracts were analyzed in duplicate to quantify analytical variability. The variance was partitioned as follows: mill (1.9%), truck (4.1%), bag (60.8%), in-bag (26.6%), analytical error (6.3%) and residual error (0.3%). Using these data, a power study was conducted to optimize the number of bags per truck that should be sampled. The power test, depicted using a power curve, indicated that 20 bags provided a statistical probability of 0.83. This study characterizes the sources of variability in sampling, and the inclusion of a power study highlights the tradeoffs in the number of bags sampled and the ability to detect small effects in estimating the level of aflatoxin contamination in maize.

The impact of smallholder farmers’ participation in avocado export markets on the labor market, farm yields, sales prices, and incomes in Kenya

Smallholder producers in sub-Saharan Africa are often unable integrate into markets and access high-value opportunities by effectively participating in global chains for high-value fresh produce. Using data from a survey of large avocado farmers in Kenya, this study examines the determinants and impacts of smallholder-producer participation in avocado export markets on labor inputs, farm yields, sales prices, and incomes, using a switching regression framework to control for selection effects. We found that farmers who participate in export markets differ significantly from nonparticipating farmers: They are older, have somewhat larger farms, have received more training, and own more avocado trees of the Hass variety, the type favored in export markets. Living near a well-functioning avocado farmers’ group is also positively associated with participation in export markets. Participation in avocado export markets will have positive impacts on incomes, revenues, prices, and labor inputs. However, there is an offsetting effect in terms of higher prices and lower volumes, reflecting the stricter quality requirements of export markets. Applying a decomposition analysis, we found that not only differences in endowment sizes, but also differences in returns from endowments in export versus domestic markets, are key to understanding differences in yields, revenues, sales prices, and labor inputs. This suggests that policymakers should not only focus on resource accumulation for farmers, but also pay attention to the inclusiveness of export market participation for smallholder farmers.

Design and rating of risk-contingent credit for balancing business and financial risks for Kenyan farmers

Farmer adoption of plot- and farm-level natural resource management practices: between rhetoric and reality

There is a significant gap between the rhetoric of claims about adoption of farm-level natural resource management practices and the reality. New empirical evidence of low adoption from several developing countries suggests that on-farm natural resource management practices face significant constraints to adoption, and that they deliver heterogeneous private and public benefits. Five recommendations are given to the research community related to: targeting; scaling-up; the proper role of research; trajectories of diffusion; and measurement of environmental impacts.

Risk factors for childhood violence and polyvictimization: A cross-country analysis from three regions

Do vaccination interventions have effects? A study on how poultry vaccination interventions change smallholder farmer knowledge, attitudes, and practice in villages in Kenya and Tanzania

Poultry are important for many poor households in developing countries, but there are many constraints to poultry production, including disease. One of the most important diseases of chickens is Newcastle disease (ND). Even though there are effective vaccines against this disease available in most countries, uptake by small-scale poultry keepers is often low. In this study, two areas in Kenya and Tanzania were studied, where some villages had received additional support to get vaccination and other villages had not. In Kenya, 320 households from 10 villages were interviewed, of which half of the villages had active promotion of vaccination through village-based advisors. In Tanzania, 457 households were interviewed, of which 241 came from villages that have had active support through either a project or government extension services. Knowledge about vaccines and the attitudes towards vaccinating against ND was evaluated using mixed multivariable logistic models. Results indicate that in Kenya, the most important determinants for understanding the function of a vaccine were having had support in the village and to have knowledge about ND signs, while in Tanzania gender and previous vaccine use were important in addition to having had support. Attitudes towards vaccination were mainly determined by knowledge, where more knowledge about how vaccines work in general or about ND contributed to more positive attitudes. Among Kenyan farmers that had never used the vaccine before, the amount of birds they lost to disease and predators also influenced attitudes. In conclusion, this study supports the notion that knowledge is a very important component of extension support and that simply making vaccines available may not be sufficient for high levels of uptake.

Determinants of dietary diversity among women of reproductive age in two different agro-ecological zones of Rongai Sub-County, Nakuru, Kenya

This study demonstrated that the diets of women were of poor quality despite the differences in agro-ecological zones and availability of food from the farm.

Education level influenced women’s dietary diversity positively in low agricultural potential areas while household gender, education level, age and family size were important determinants in high potential areas.

Nutrition interventions focusing on improving dietary quality of women should therefore pay special attention to developing region-specific interventions instead of generalizing interventions.

The impact of reducing dietary aflatoxin exposure on child linear growth: A cluster randomised controlled trial in Kenya

Observational studies have documented an association between aflatoxin (AF) exposure and reduced linear growth in infants and young children. Our objective was to assess the effectiveness of reducing AF exposure on child linear growth and serum AF levels in rural areas in Eastern Kenya. Methods: A cluster randomised controlled design was used (28 intervention and 28 control clusters). The intervention arm received a swapping (contaminated maize was replaced with safe maize) and a stockist intervention (households were encouraged to purchase from a stockist supplied with clean maize). Women in the fifth to final month of pregnancy were invited to enrol in the study. Outcomes were child length-for-age Z-score (LAZ), the prevalence of stunting and child serum AFB1-lysine adduct level 24 (endline, primary outcomes) and 11 to 19 months (midline, secondary outcomes) after trial commencement, respectively. The trial was registered with socialscienceregistry.org. Results Of the 1230 unborn children enrolled in the study, 881 (72%) were included in the LAZ and 798 (65%) in the serum AFB1 analysis. The intervention significantly reduced endline ln serum AFB1-lysine adduct levels (intervention effect—0.273, 95% CI −0.547 to 0.001; one-sided p=0.025), but had no effect on endline LAZ or stunting (mean LAZ at endline was −1.64). At midline, the intervention increased LAZ by 0.16 (95% CI −0.009 to 0.33; one-sided p=0.032) and reduced stunting by seven percentage points (95% CI −0.125 to −0.007; one-sided p=0.015), but had no impact on serum AFB1 levels. Conclusion Improving access to AF-free maize substantially reduced endline serum AF, but had no effect on child linear growth. The midline analysis suggests that AF may affect linear growth at younger ages.

What rainfall does not tell us—Enhancing financial instruments with satellite-derived soil moisture and evaporative stress

Advanced parametric financial instruments, like weather index insurance (WII) and risk contingency credit (RCC), support disaster-risk management and reduction in the world’s most disaster-prone regions. Simultaneously, satellite data that are capable of cross-checking rainfall estimates, the “standard dataset” to develop such financial safety nets, are gaining importance as complementary sources of information. This study concentrates on the analysis of satellite-derived multi-sensor soil moisture (ESA CCI, Version v04.2), the evapotranspiration-based Evaporative Stress Index (ESI), and CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data) rainfall estimates in nine East African countries. Based on spatial correlation analysis, we found matching spatial/temporal patterns between all three datasets, with the highest correlation coefficient occurring between October and March. In large parts of Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia, we observed a lower (partly negative) correlation coefficient between June and August, which was likely caused by issues related to cloud cover and the volume scattering of microwaves in sandy, hot soils. Based on simple linear and logit regression analysis with annual, national maize yield estimates as the dependent variable, we found that, depending on the chosen period (averages per year, growing or harvesting months), there was added value (higher R-squared) if two or all three variables were combined. The ESI and soil moisture have the potential to close sensitive knowledge gaps between atmospheric moisture supply and the response of the land surface in operational parametric insurance projects. For the development and calibration of WII and RCC, this means that better proxies for historical and potential future drought impact can strengthen “drought narratives”, resulting in a better match between calculated payouts/credit repayment levels and the actual needs of smallholder farmers.

Myth-busting? Confronting six common perceptions about unconditional cash transfers as a poverty reduction strategy in Africa

This paper summarizes evidence on six perceptions associated with cash transfer programming, using eight rigorous evaluations conducted on large-scale government unconditional cash transfers in sub-Saharan Africa under the Transfer Project. Specifically, it investigates if transfers: 1) induce higher spending on alcohol or tobacco; 2) are fully consumed (rather than invested); 3) create dependency (reduce participation in productive activities); 4) increase fertility; 5) lead to negative community-level economic impacts (including price distortion and inflation); and 6) are fiscally unsustainable. The paper presents evidence refuting each claim, leading to the conclusion that these perceptions—insofar as they are utilized in policy debates—undercut potential improvements in well-being and livelihood strengthening among the poor, which these programs can bring about in sub-Saharan Africa, and globally. It concludes by underscoring outstanding research gaps and policy implications for the continued expansion of unconditional cash transfers in the region and beyond.

Allocation and valuation of smallholder maize residues in Western Kenya

Women’s empowerment in agriculture and agricultural productivity: Evidence from rural maize farmer households in western Kenya

This paper documents a positive relationship between maize productivity in western Kenya and women’s empowerment in agriculture, measured using indicators derived from the abbreviated version of the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index. Applying a cross-sectional instrumental-variable regression method to a data set of 707 maize farm households from western Kenya, we find that women’s empowerment in agriculture significantly increases maize productivity. Although all indicators of women’s empowerment significantly increase productivity, there is no significant association between the women’s workload (amount of time spent working) and maize productivity. Furthermore, the results show heterogenous effects with respect to women’s empowerment on maize productivity for farm plots managed jointly by a male and female and plots managed individually by only a male or female. More specifically, the results suggest that female- and male-managed plots experience significant improvements in productivity when the women who tend them are empowered. These findings provide evidence that women’s empowerment contributes not only to reducing the gender gap in agricultural productivity, but also to improving, specifically, productivity from farms managed by women. Thus, rural development interventions in Kenya that aim to increase agricultural productivity—and, by extension, improve food security and reduce poverty—could achieve greater impact by integrating women’s empowerment into existing and future projects.

Supermarket shopping and nutritional outcomes: A panel data analysis for urban Kenya

Overweight and obesity are growing health problems in many developing countries. Rising obesity rates are the result of changes in people’s diets and lifestyles. Income growth and urbanization are factors that contribute to these changes. Modernizing food retail environments may also play a certain role. For instance, the rapid spread of supermarkets in many developing countries could affect consumer food choices and thus nutritional outcomes. However, concrete evidence about the effects of supermarkets on consumer diets and nutrition is thin. A few existing studies have analyzed related linkages with cross-sectional survey data. We add to this literature by using panel data from households and individuals in urban Kenya. Employing panel regression models with individual fixed effects and controlling for other factors we show that shopping in supermarkets significantly increases body mass index (BMI). We also analyze impact pathways. Shopping in supermarkets contributes to higher consumption of processed and highly processed foods and lower consumption of unprocessed foods. These results confirm that the retail environment affects people’s food choices and nutrition. However, the effects depend on the types of foods offered. Rather than thwarting modernization in the retail sector, policies that incentivize the sale of more healthy foods—such as fruits and vegetables—in supermarkets may be more promising to promote desirable nutritional outcomes.

Women's participation in high value agricultural commodity chains in Kenya: Strategies for closing the gender gap

You get what you pay for: the link between price and food safety in Kenya

The lack of a reliably safe food supply in developing countries imposes both health and economic costs. Food safety is one of several dimensions of food quality that are typically unobservable at the time of purchase. Branding can overcome this information problem by allowing firms to build reputations based on the quality of their products. If a reputation for food safety is valued directly by consumers, or if food safety is correlated with other valued attributes, firms producing safer food should be able to use their brand equity to charge higher prices. In addition, firms with stronger brand equity have stronger incentives to meet food safety standards in order to maintain that equity. Using data from more than 900 maize flour samples representing 23 distinct brands in eastern and central Kenya, we explore the relationship between price and contamination with aflatoxin. Aflatoxin is a fungal toxin common in maize, groundnuts, and other crops around the world. We find a strong negative correlation between price and contamination at the brand level, consistent with the hypothesized positive relationship between brand equity and food quality.

Introducing orange sweet potato: Tracing the evolution of evidence on its effectiveness

The introduction of orange sweet potato (OSP), rich in vitamin A, can have important and lasting impacts on reducing vitamin A deficiency among smallholder farmers in the developing world. In this paper, we describe the evolution of evidence about the effectiveness of disseminating OSP to smallholder farmers on vitamin A deficiency. We trace projects from a small trial in 10 villages in western Kenya through the Reaching End Users program in Mozambique and Uganda that reached thousands of households in both countries, while demonstrating that households receiving integrated programs teaching them to grow OSP and the nutritional benefits of vitamin A had notable impacts on the probability of vitamin A deficiency and on biological markers for vitamin A in women of child-bearing age and young children, relative to members of households not selected for participation. The evidence generated through research has played an important role in efforts to disseminate the crop more widely, and future evaluations will help build understanding about how OSP can be combined with other interventions, such as health visits or disseminating additional biofortified foods.

Sweet potato development and delivery in sub-saharan Africa

In sub-Saharan Africa, more than 40% of children under five years of age suffer from vitamin A deficiency. Among several interventions in place to address vitamin A deficiency is biofortification, breeding vitamin A into key staple crops. Staple crops biofortified with beta-carotene, the precursor to vitamin A, are orange in color. Given the natural occurrence of high levels of beta-carotene in many sweet potato varieties, breeding progress for biofortified orange sweet potato (OSP) has been much faster than for the other vitamin A enhanced staples. Nearly 3 million households have been reached with OSP. This paper reviews key factors influencing the uptake of OSP, the breeding investment, five key delivery approaches that have been tested in the region and efforts to broaden government and other stakeholder engagement.

Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself?

Although global food demand is expected to increase 60% by 2050 compared with 2005/2007, the rise will be much greater in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Indeed, SSA is the region at greatest food security risk because by 2050 its population will increase 2.5-fold and demand for cereals approximately triple, whereas current levels of cereal consumption already depend on substantial imports. At issue is whether SSA can meet this vast increase in cereal demand without greater reliance on cereal imports or major expansion of agricultural area and associated biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions. Recent studies indicate that the global increase in food demand by 2050 can be met through closing the gap between current farm yield and yield potential on existing cropland. Here, however, we estimate it will not be feasible to meet future SSA cereal demand on existing production area by yield gap closure alone. Our agronomically robust yield gap analysis for 10 countries in SSA using location-specific data and a spatial upscaling approach reveals that, in addition to yield gap closure, other more complex and uncertain components of intensification are also needed, i.e., increasing cropping intensity (the number of crops grown per 12 mo on the same field) and sustainable expansion of irrigated production area. If intensification is not successful and massive cropland land expansion is to be avoided, SSA will depend much more on imports of cereals than it does today.

An exploratory study of dairying intensification, women’s decision making, and time use and implications for child nutrition in Kenya

Dairy intensification as a development strategy is expected to improve household nutrition, yet the pathways by which this occurs are not well understood. This article examines how women’s time use and decision-making patterns related to dairy income and consumption are associated with dairy intensification, as a way of exploring the links between intensification and nutrition. Results from our mixed methods study conducted with households representing low, medium and high levels of dairy intensification in rural Kenya indicated that children in high-intensity households received more milk than children in medium-intensity households. While women seemed to be gaining control over evening milk sales decisions, men seemed to be increasingly controlling total dairy income, a trend countered by the increase in reported joint decision making. Women from medium-intensity households reported spending more time on dairy activities than women from high-intensity households. More research on how dairy interventions affect women is needed.

Targeting health subsidies through a nonprice mechanism: A randomized controlled trial in Kenya

In developed countries, a consumer's valuation of a health product can be measured by his or her willingness to pay for it. But poorer individuals, especially those in developing countries, might want and need a product yet be unable to pay for it with money. Dupaset al.demonstrate that a nonprice voucher mechanism can be used to deliver chlorine for water treatment to people in Kenya who are too poor to pay for it, but who use it when they get it (see the Perspective by Olken). Having to redeem the vouchers screens out people who would accept the free chlorine solution but not use it.Science, this issue p.889; see also p.864

Reply to SA Tanumihardjo et al.

A spatial econometric approach to designing and rating scalable index insurance in the presence of missing data

Index-Based Livestock Insurance has emerged as a promising market-based solution for insuring livestock against drought-related mortality. The objective of this work is to develop an explicit spatial econometric framework to estimate insurable indexes that can be integrated within a general insurance pricing framework. We explore the problem of estimating spatial panel models when there are missing dependent variable observations and cross-sectional dependence, and implement an estimable procedure which employs an iterative method. We also develop an out-of-sample efficient cross-validation mixing method to optimise the degree of index aggregation in the context of spatial index models.

Ex ante welfare analysis of technological change: The case of nitrogen efficient maize for African soils

This study evaluates the potential impacts of the Improved Maize for African Soils (IMAS) project in two countries of Africa: Kenya and South Africa. The IMAS varieties offer significant yield advantages for regions where low or no fertilizer is used. The analysis uses spatial production data and household data to account for the level of fertilizer use in different agroecological zones of the country as well as different types of maize producing households. Results suggest that IMAS will deliver a total of US$586 million in gross benefits with US$136 million and US$100 million of benefits to producers in Kenya and South Africa, respectively, and an additional US$112 million to consumers in Kenya and US$238 million to consumers in South Africa. These benefits could help more than 1 million people escape poverty in the two countries by 2025. Household level results suggest that small households in areas with relatively low levels of fertilizer use stand to gain significant benefits.

Biofortified yellow cassava and vitamin A status of Kenyan children: a randomized controlled trial

Background: Whereas conventional white cassava roots are devoid of provitamin A, biofortified yellow varieties are naturally rich in b-carotene, the primary provitamin A carotenoid. Objective: We assessed the effect of consuming yellow cassava on serum retinol concentration in Kenyan schoolchildren with marginal vitamin A status. Design: We randomly allocated 342 children aged 5–13 y to receive daily, 6 d/wk, for 18.5 wk 1) white cassava and placebo supplement (control group), 2) provitamin A–rich cassava (mean content: 1460 mg b-carotene/d) and placebo supplement (yellow cassava group), and 3) white cassava and b-carotene supplement (1053 mg/d; b-carotene supplement group). The primary outcome was serum retinol concentration; prespecified secondary outcomes were hemoglobin concentration and serum concentrations of b-carotene, retinol-binding protein, and prealbumin. Groups were compared by using ANCOVA, adjusting for inflammation, baseline serum concentrations of retinol and b-carotene, and stratified design. Results: The baseline prevalence of serum retinol concentration, 0.7 mmol/L and inflammation was 27% and 24%, respectively. For children in the control, yellow cassava, and b-carotene supplement groups, the mean daily intake of cassava was 378, 371, and 378 g, respectively, and the total daily supply of provitamin A and vitamin A from diet and supplements was equivalent to 22, 220, and 175 mg retinol, respectively. Both yellow cassava and b-carotene supplementation increased serum retinol concentration by 0.04 mmol/L (95% CI: 0.00, 0.07 mmol/L); correspondingly, serum b-carotene concentration increased by 524% (448%, 608%) and 166% (134%, 202%). We found no effect on hemoglobin concentration or serum concentrations of retinol-binding protein and prealbumin. Conclusions: In our study population, consumption of yellow cassava led to modest gains in serum retinol concentration and a large increase in b-carotene concentration. It can be an efficacious, new approach to improve vitamin A status. This study was registered with clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01614483.

Mitigating aflatoxin exposure to improve child growth in Eastern Kenya: Study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Serum aflatoxin B1-lysine adduct level in adult women from Eastern Province in Kenya depends on household socio-economic status: A cross sectional study

Is there an enabling environment for nutrition-sensitive agriculture in East Africa?: Stakeholder perspectives from Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda

There is growing recognition that “nutrition-sensitive” development is necessary to ensure nutrition security and reduce malnutrition. While agriculture has the potential to be a strong driver of malnutrition reduction and serves as the main source of livelihood for approximately two-thirds of East Africa’s population, its potential to reduce malnutrition is currently not being realized.Leveraging Agriculture for Nutrition in East Africa is a research study based in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda that seeks to understand the enabling environment necessary for optimizing the contribution of the food and agriculture sector to nutrition outcomes. Its objectives were to explore stakeholder perceptions of nutrition–agriculture linkages, of political and institutional challenges and opportunities, of evidence that is available and influential for policy making, and of key issues with regard to capacity.Open-ended and semistructured interviews were conducted with 53 stakeholders from government, civil society, donors, United Nations organizations, private sector, and research/academic institutions in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda in 2014.Although policy opportunities and contexts are different between the 3 countries, stakeholders identified similar barriers to greater action, including a narrow focus on solely market-oriented and staple crop production, a lack of clarity and incentives within the agriculture sector about improving nutrition and how to translate policy into action, and lack of capacity in human and financial resources. Many actions to improve the nutrition sensitivity of agriculture were mentioned, including crop diversification, value chain activities and improved market access, nutrition education, and reduction in time and labor costs to women.Many opportunities exist to strengthen the impact of agriculture on nutrition in East Africa, but stronger formulation and implementation of policies will require adequate human resources, funds, timely data on the context, sector alignment on priority actions, and alignment on a framework or indicators for accountability.

Agricultural marketing by smallholders in Kenya: A comparison of maize, kale and dairy

Assessment of Aflatoxin and Fumonisin Contamination of Maize in Western Kenya

We conducted a survey of aflatoxin and fumonisin in maize in western Kenya. In a regional survey of aflatoxin conducted in 2009 across three agroecological zones within three administrative regions, milled maize samples were collected from 985 patrons of 26 hammer mills. Aflatoxin contamination was detected in 49% of samples and was above the regulatory (10 ppb) in 15% of the samples overall; 65% of samples from a drought-prone area were over the limit. In a detailed survey in Bungoma County, we investigated aflatoxin and fumonisin contamination in four popular maize varieties at harvest and after 2 and 4 months of storage. We collected whole-grain samples from farmers’ storage sheds and milled samples from patrons of local mills. Mean aflatoxin contamination was identical for storage sheds and mills at 2.3 ppb. In all, 41% of the samples from mills had detectable aflatoxin, with 4% over the regulatory limit, whereas 87% had detectable fumonisin, with 50% over the regulatory limit (1 ppm). Mean contamination levels did not change during storage. Maize varieties differed in fumonisin contamination, with the most popular varieties vulnerable to both mycotoxins and weevils, which are potential factors in exacerbating mycotoxin contamination. Mycotoxin surveillance is important not just in areas known previously for aflatoxin contamination and acute poisoning but also is needed in all maize-producing regions.

A field study for assessing risk-contingent credit for Kenyan pastoralists and dairy farmers

The purpose of this paper is to assess the feasibility of risk-contingent credit (RCC) by presenting an experimental and participatory game designed to explain the concept of RCC to Kenyan pastoralists and dairy farmers. The paper investigates the uptake potential of RCC through qualitative assessment of field experiments and focus groups.– The paper presents a method of community engagement through a participatory game played in a series of Focus Group Discussions (FGDs). The paper also presents theoretical justification of RCC in credit market structure.– The game effectively explains the concept and mechanism of RCC by reflecting local situation and production potential. Participatory exercises within focus group discussions indicate that there exists a strong interest and support for RCC.– The methodology described in this paper can be used in extension programs for promoting innovative rural microcredit in developing countries but should be modified according to the local production and associated weather and market risks.– Micro-insurance and credit program delivery can be improved by the innovative approach of community engagement for explaining financial products.

Maize systems under climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: Potential impacts on production and food security

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine the biophysical and socioeconomic impacts of climate change on maize production and food security in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using adapted improved maize varieties and well-calibrated and validated bioeconomic models. Design/methodology/approach: Using the past climate (1950-2000) as a baseline, the study estimated the biophysical impacts of climate change in 2050 (2040-2069) and 2080 (2070-2099) under the A1B emission scenario and three nitrogen levels, and the socioeconomic impacts in 2050. Findings: Climate change will affect maize yields across SSA in 2050 and 2080, and the extent of the impact at a given period will vary considerably between input levels, regions and maize mega environments (MMEs). Greater relative yield reductions may occur under medium and high-input intensification than under low intensification, in Western and Southern Africa than in Eastern and Central Africa and in lowland and dry mid-altitude than in highland and wet mid-altitude MMEs. Climate change may worsen food insecurity in SSA in 2050 through its negative impact on maize consumption and reduction in daily calorie intake. However, international trade has the potential to offset some of the negative impacts. Originality/value: The study calibrated and applied bioeconomic models to estimate the biophysical and socioeconomic impact of climate change on maize production at fine resolution. The results could be used as a baseline to evaluate measures that will be applied to adapt maize to the future climate in SSA.

Leveraging agriculture for nutrition in South Asia and East Africa: Examining the enabling environment through stakeholder perceptions

South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa are the two regions of the world with the highest concentration of undernutrition. The majority of the nutritionally vulnerable populations in both regions is dependent in some way upon agriculture as a primary source of livelihood. The agriculture sector and wider agri-food system is considered to be central to sustained progress in reducing undernutrition – and yet not enough is known about how to unleash this potential. Recent scoping assessments have also revealed a paucity of information on wider political, institutional and policy-related challenges relating to the agriculture-nutrition nexus globally. Contextualized research into policy processes and the political economy of agriculture and nutrition is needed to better characterize "enabling environments" for agriculture to benefit nutrition, and how these environments can be shaped and sustained. This study aims to contribute to filling this gap, by drawing upon evidence from a set of case studies in South Asia (India, Bangladesh and Pakistan) and eastern Africa (Ethiopia, Uganda and Kenya). In synthesizing results across countries, while recognizing important nuance and detail, we conclude by highlighting four key issues to be addressed. First, improving knowledge and perception of undernutrition and its links to agriculture, on the part of agricultural policymakers and programme managers. Second, generating system-wide incentives for decisions and actions to become more pro-nutrition. Third, developing transparent systems of accountability for nutrition-relevant action throughout the agriculture sector, through linking timely and actionable data and evidence with incentives. And fourth, cultivating and strengthening leadership and capacities at different levels, underpinned by adequate financing.

What drives and constrains effective leadership in tackling child undernutrition?: Findings from Bangladesh, Ethiopia, India and Kenya