Discussion Papers

Nature-positive agriculture for people and the planet: A qualitative analysis from Kenya

Agricultural intensification that prioritizes profits over people and the environment is increasingly recognized as harmful to people’s wellbeing and the sustainability and resilience of smallholder farming systems. Nature-based solutions are part of nature-positive eco-agrifood systems and are critical for restoring ecosystems and preventing further biodiversity loss and environmental degradation during a climate crisis. To support more widespread adoption of nature-based solutions, it is important to understand dynamics within local communities where these solutions will be applied. This includes deeper understanding of environmental challenges, institutional and governance arrangements, current farming practices, gender relations, and perceptions of nature-based solutions. This study draws on qualitative data on these topics collected from smallholder farmers and key informants in three counties of Kenya. The discussion centers on the potential for nature-based practices to place agricultural production systems on a more sustainable path.

Impacts of personalized picture-based crop advisories: Experimental evidence from India and Kenya

The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has heightened interest in digital models to strengthen agricultural extension. Such tools could help provide personalized advisories tailored to a farmer's unique conditions at scale and at a low cost. This study evaluates the fundamental assumption that personalized crop advisories are more effective than generic ones. By means of a large-scale randomized controlled trial (RCT), we assess the impact of personalized picture-based advisories on farmers’ perceptions, knowledge and adoption of recommended inputs and practices, and other downstream outcomes. We find that personalizing advisories does not significantly improve agricultural outcomes compared to generic ones. While farmers who engage relatively more with advisories (i.e., those who receive and read a substantial number of messages based on self-reports) tend to achieve better outcomes, this is irrespective of whether the advisories they receive are tailored to their specific situation or not. We conclude that investments in digital extension tools should aim to enhance engagement with advisories rather than focusing solely on personalization.

Subsidizing resilience: Evaluating Kenya's fertilizer subsidy program amid global supply chain disruptions

Amid global supply chain disruptions and an escalating fertilizer crisis, Kenya’s National Fertilizer Subsidy Program (NFSP) emerges as a critical intervention to enhance agricultural resilience. This paper investigates the NFSP's impacts on fertilizer adoption, maize productivity, and market dynamics, employing a quasi-experimental design with two-way fixed effects and two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation. We leverage random variation in government-issued SMS notifications to identify causal effects. Results show that the NFSP increased fertilizer adoption by 7%, leading to maize yield gains of 26–37% (164–233.5 kg/acre), with greater benefits for younger and more educated farmers. However, the program caused a substantial crowding-out effect, reducing private-sector fertilizer use by 49–57%. Barriers such as financial constraints, delayed notifications, and logistical inefficiencies limited equitable access, undermining the program's potential. Despite these challenges, the NFSP was cost-effective, offering favorable value-cost ratios for farmers and the government. To enhance impact and sustainability, we recommend addressing participation barriers and integrating private-sector agro-dealers into the distribution framework. This study provides crucial insights for policymakers on designing subsidy programs that balance immediate productivity gains with market sustainability, especially during periods of global agricultural uncertainty.

Effectiveness of aflatoxin biocontrol: Evidence from Kenyan smallholders under varied levels of technical support

Agricultural technologies shown to be highly effective in research trials often have a lower impact when utilized by smallholder farmers. Both heterogeneous returns and suboptimal application are believed to play a role in this efficacy gap. We provide experimental evidence on the impact of a biocontrol product for the control of aflatoxin, a carcinogenic fungal byproduct, as applied by smallholder farmers in Kenya. By varying the level of external support across farmers, we investigate the role of misapplication in the effectiveness gap. We find that the provision of biocontrol together with a one-time training on application reduces aflatoxin contamination in maize relative to a control group by 34 percent. Additional training to the farmers in the form of a call to remind them of the correct time of application in the crop cycle increases the reduction to 52 percent. Our findings indicate that farmers can achieve meaningful improvements in food safety using biocontrol even with minimal training on its use and that additional support at the recommended time of application can strengthen its impact.

Impact of risk-contingent credit and traditional credit on smallholders’ agricultural investment and productivity: Experimental evidence from Kenya

We use a multiyear, multi-arm randomized controlled trial implemented among 1,053 smallholders in Kenya to evaluate ex-ante investment and ex-post productivity and welfare benefits of two competing lending models: risk-contingent credit (RCC)—which embeds crop insurance with a loan product—and traditional credit (TC). We rely on local average treatment effects to demonstrate the effects of these alternative credit products on borrowers but report the intention-to-treat effects for their broader policy significance. Uptake of RCC increased treated households’ farm investments—specifically, adoption of chemical fertilizers—by up to 14 percent along the extensive margins and by more than 100 percent along the intensive margins, while TC’s effects were less in both magnitude and statistical significance. Neither type of credit product had a significant effect on the overall area cultivated under maize, hence enhancing agricultural intensification but not extensification. Ex-post, neither type of credit product had a strong direct effect on households’ productivity. We conclude that access to credit has potential to increase investment and productivity among smallholders, although improved productivity needs better measurement and extended intervention to be realized. To scale the potential effects of credit, derisking access to credit should be considered to expand access to credit.

Soft-skills training, locus of control, and labor market outcomes of youth: Evidence from a randomized intervention in Kenya

Africa has the youngest population in the world, but African economies are not creating enough high-productivity jobs, and rates of youth unemployment thus remain a major challenge in the region. Several supply- and demand-side factors may explain these trends, including skill gaps. While traditional technical and vocational education and training (TVET) centers address important gaps in hard (technical) skills, soft-skills trainings have not yet received sufficient attention in the African context. We evaluate the overall and heterogenous impact of a gender-sensitive soft-skills training that aimed to address youths’ unique interests, preferences, and labor market constraints in Kenya. We also examine whether the presence (or absence) of complementary noncognitive skills, such as locus-of-control skills, moderates the impact of the soft-skills training. We use a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness of a soft-skills training to support young men and women in making the transition from school to work in Kenya. Our evaluation combines baseline, midline, and endline data to understand the dynamics of labor market transitions for youth. We find that although the soft-skills training prepared youth for the labor market by improving their willingness, expectations, and preparedness for jobs, the impact of the soft-skills training on ultimate labor market outcomes varies across individuals with varying psychological traits. The training improved labor market outcomes for those with internal locus of control but not for individuals who lack these attributes. One standard deviation increase in (internal) locus of control is associated with a 5 percentage-point increase in the impact of the soft-skills training on probability of participation in income-earning activities. We also find that returns to locus of control and the soft-skills training are higher for females than males.

Use of digital tools in Kenya’s potato value chains: Qualitative perspectives from a field visit in Nakuru County

Potato farmers in Kenya face a multitude of challenges throughout the value chain, including limited access to quality seeds and fertilizers, inadequate storage and postharvest handling facilities, and fluctuating market prices. These issues are particularly acute for women and youth, who face additional barriers due to persistent social inequalities in the agricultural sector. Digital tools—such as smartphones, smart sensors, or tools involving remote sensing and GIS mobile mapping, as well as applications for agricultural information, e-marketplaces, e-learning platforms, and digital financing platforms—hold significant potential to address these challenges. For instance, these tools can provide access to valuable agricultural information, weather forecasts, and best management practices, helping farmers make in formed decisions and improve crop management. Mobile apps and platforms can facilitate market access by connecting farmers directly with buyers, which can reduce price fluctuations and ensure fair returns on their produce through price information. Digital tools can also play a crucial role in addressing post harvest losses by providing real-time monitoring and management of storage conditions, helping farmers optimize storage to reduce spoilage and wastage. Additionally, digital platforms can provide farmers with information on proper postharvest handling techniques, including sorting, grading, and packaging, to ensure that potatoes are well processed, prepared, packaged, and marketed with minimal losses. However, the adoption of these tools has been slow in Africa south of the Sahara, hindered by infrastructural gaps, high costs, and low digital literacy, thereby limiting their scalability and impact (Aker et al. 2016, Aker and Cariolle 2022, Abate et al. 2023).

Systematic risk profiling: A novel approach with applications to Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi

This paper uses machine learning, simulation, and data mining methods to develop Systematic Risk Profiles of three developing economies: Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi. We focus on three exogenous shocks with implications for economic performance: world market prices, capital flows, and climate-driven sectoral productivity. In these and other developing countries, recent decades have been characterized by increased risks associated with all these factors, and there is a demand for instruments that can help to disentangle them. For each country, we utilize historical data to develop multi-variate distributions of shocks. We then sample from these distributions to obtain a series of shock vectors, which we label economic uncertainty scenarios. These scenarios are then entered into economywide computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation models for the three countries, which allow us to quantify the impact of increased uncertainty on major economic indicators. Finally, we utilize importance metrics from the random forest machine learning algorithm and relative importance metrics from multiple linear regression models to quantify the importance of country-specific risk factors for country performance. We find that Malawi and Rwanda are more vulnerable to sectoral productivity shocks, and Kenya is more exposed to external risks. These findings suggest that a country’s level of development and integration into the global economy are key driving forces defining their risk profiles. The methodology of Systematic Risk Profiling can be applied to many other countries, delineating country-specific risks and vulnerabilities.

How do videos fit into current agricultural advisory services? Lessons from Kenya and Uganda

While video extension is a recognized means to overcome the challenges posed by traditional agricultural advisory services, adoption has been limited. This paper presents two case studies conducted in Kenya and Uganda that explore the potential of video extension for promoting climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices. In Kenya, videos were rolled out by GROOTS Kenya, which predominantly serves women farmers. In Uganda, the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries’ Agricultural Extension Services implemented the video rollout, focusing on both women and men farmers. We used qualitative research linked to both video rollouts to understand the benefits and challenges linked to the intervention. We also compared the implementation strategies used in the two countries to evaluate the suitability of videos as a “best fit” advisory provision tool. Both women and men farmers enjoyed watching the videos. They improved farmers' access to information, resulting in increased knowledge and adoption of CSA practices. Costs involved in some practices affected their adoption as did lack of intrahousehold decision-making power, particularly for women. In some cases, infrastructural challenges complicated the video showings. The findings underscore the importance of complementing traditional agricultural extension with interactive and context-specific video content without replacing and neglecting other modes of extension, as well as the need for political support to ensure the scalability and long-term success of video extension initiatives.

The true costs of food production in Kenya and Viet Nam

Sustainable agrifood systems (AFS) provide food security and nutrition without compromising economic, social, and environmental objectives. However, many AFS generate substantial unaccounted for environmental, social, and health costs. True cost accounting (TCA) is one method that adds direct and external costs to find the “true cost” of food production, which can inform policies to reduce externalities or adjust market prices. We find that for Kenya— considering the entire food system, including crops, livestock, fishing, and value addition sectors at the national level—external costs represent 35 percent of the output value. Social costs account for 73 percent of the total external costs, while environmental costs are 27 percent. In contrast, in Viet Nam, where total external costs represent 15 percent of the output value, the environmental costs (75 percent) dominate social costs. At the subnational level, in the three Kenyan counties (Kisumu, Vihiga, and Kajiado) covered by the CGIAR Research Initiative on Nature-Positive Solutions (NATURE+), external costs (or the true cost gap) represent about 30 percent of all household crop production costs. Those external costs are overwhelmingly dominated by social (84 percent) over environmental (16 percent) externalities. In Viet Nam's Sa Pa and Mai Son districts, external costs represent about 24 percent of all household crop production costs. Environmental externalities (61 percent) are greater than social ones (39 percent). In Kenya, forced labor is the main social (and overall) external impact driven by factors ranging from "less severe" financial coercion to "more severe" forms of physical coercion. Land occupation is the most important environmental impact, resulting from occupation of lands for cultivation rather than conservation, while underpayment (low wages) and low profits are important social costs that are closely associated with the prevailing gender wage gap and occurrence of harassment. Soil degradation is the only other environmental impact, linked with the use of inorganic fertilizers (60 percent of households) and pesticides (36 percent). In Viet Nam, land occupation is the most important external impact, followed by soil degradation and contributions to climate change, primarily due to widespread use of inorganic fertilizers (98 percent of households) and pesticides (93 percent). Underpayment and insufficient income are significant social costs, followed by the gender wage gap and child labor. Crop production systems in Kenya exhibit relatively high labor-related costs compared with nonlabor inputs, with relatively lower intensity in the use of inorganic fertilizer and other chemical inputs and lower crop yields. This production system leads to relatively greater social externalities. Conversely, crop yields in Viet Nam are significantly higher than those in Kenya, likely due to the extensive use of inorganic fertilizers representing the largest direct cost component and leading to a relatively higher level of environmental externalities. Because external costs represent a significant part of the total cost of food production, policy and investments to minimize these costs are essential to a nature-positive AFS that is environmentally sustainable and socially equitable. Strategies to reach this goal include regulatory adjustments, investments in resource efficient infrastructure and technologies that minimize costs, and the prudent management of environmentally impactful production inputs and factors.

See It Grow: A randomized evaluation of digital innovations in crop insurance to increase insurance and fertilizer demand in Kenya

Picture-based insurance (PBI) is an innovation designed to lower basis risk in index-based crop insurance for smallholder farmers by indemnifying insurance claims based on crop damage documented through a stream of pre- and post-damage smartphone pictures. To evaluate its impacts on insurance take-up and fertilizer use, we implemented a cluster randomized controlled trial in seven counties in Kenya. Approximately 190 villages are randomly assigned to a control group, as well as weather index-based insurance (WBI) and picture-based insurance (PBI) treatment arms, where farmers are offered free insurance trials of a standard rainfall insurance product and a similarly priced PBI product, respectively. Subsequently, farmers in these insurance treatment arms can purchase the insurance product of which they received a trial at subsidized premiums, whereas farmers in the control group are offered a standard insurance product at commercial premiums. PBI increases insurance take-up compared to WBI, especially among female farmers and those farming Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs). Both treatments increase fertilizer use compared to the control group, but this effect is most pronounced in the WBI treatment. The indemnity-based nature of PBI may disincentivize farmers to invest in crop management. We conclude that digital innovations in crop insurance that indemnity insurance claims based on visible crop losses can boost demand and have positive impacts on agricultural technology adoption, but insurance providers introducing such innovations will need to keep monitoring and managing moral hazard concerns.

A conceptual framework of living labs for people for sustainable food systems

Innovation spaces are often dominated by linear, top-down approaches, with the transfer of technology being seen as the solution to many problems rather than trying to understand which innovation processes people are engaging with themselves. In other words, barriers to progress are typically viewed as issues of technology adoption, not as part of the innovation process itself. This study contributes to changing the paradigm by proposing a living lab approach, which considers innovation as an adaptive process where stakeholders co-produce knowledge and collaborate based on inclusivity and empowerment. Our specific concept for this approach is called a Living Lab for People (LL4P). This conceptual paper outlines a framework to guide the development of a LL4P that remains flexible to be adapted for specific sites. While we seek to identify common denominators, we recognize the necessity for such a framework to remain open enough to be adaptable for varied contexts. Consequently, the framework draws on the living lab literature but tailors existing approaches for sustainable food system transformation and puts people (men, women, and marginalized groups among key food system actors) at the center of innovation processes with a clear intention to address power and social inequity. We draw on specific cases in China, Colombia, Kenya and Vietnam as learning grounds for formulating LL4Ps through locally led innovation processes. Based on our learnings and consultations, we define a LL4P as an inclusive and diverse space for people to advance their socio-technical innovation processes and associated modes of governance within a facilitated organizational structure. The principles of LL4Ps include co-production, gender equality and social inclusion, governance and institutional sustainability to advance existing and novel innovation processes. The practical experiences from applying this framework in the four case studies indicate alternative pathways for transforming the food system toward a sustainable and socially equitable trajectory through the establishment of a LL4P.

Ecosystem services may provide large economic values in Kenya and Vietnam: A value transfer application based on results from a systematic literature review

This study focuses on the valuation of ecosystem services in Kenya and Vietnam, two countries that have received much attention from the international development community for their biodiversity significance, opportunities for scaling, climate and poverty challenges, and political will. Using The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB) framework and the Millenium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA), this study estimates per hectare values of ecosystem services in Kenya and Vietnam based on a systematic literature review of studies on the values of ecosystem services in both countries. Provisioning services, such as medicines, timber, and non-timber forest products were better studied than regulating, supporting and cultural ecosystem services, underscoring the need for further research to better estimate the values of non-tangible services which would improve the estimation of total value of ecosystem services in Kenya and Vietnam. To complement the national level analysis, we selected forest biomes to conduct a value transfer analysis. Forests provide ecosystem service benefits worth $25.78 billion for Kenya and $35.6 billion in Vietnam in 2022 USD. In comparison, the agricultural sector contributed $48.50 billion to Vietnam’s GDP and $24.10 billon to Kenya’s GDP in 2021. The per hectare values for ecosystem services are used in a value transfer analysis to estimate the total value of forest ecosystem services in Vietnam and Kenya. The average per hectare value of ecosystem services provided by forests in Kenya is $5,718.50 ha−1 yr−1 estimated within a range spanning $1,609.44 to $15,606.62 ha−1 yr−1 , while Vietnam's forests demonstrate an average value of $3,650.20 ha−1 yr−1 , with a range of $84.93 to $8,978.16 ha−1 yr−1 . We project the loss of forests into 2050 and estimate the annual economic loss of ecosystem services at $48.08 million for Kenya and $76.29 million for Vietnam, respectively, if deforestation and forest degradation continue at the current rates. Our approach presents a comprehensive overview of diverse ecosystem services, equipping policymakers with a nuanced comprehension of ecosystems’ inherent value. By consolidating values from the literature into a national-level estimate, we provide compelling evidence at a broader scale for informed decision-making. Despite the well-known limitations of value transfer method and with caveats, the values presented in our paper can provide a guiding reference for incorporating these estimations into broader policymaking endeavors.

Aflatoxin contamination of maize flour in Kenya: Results from multi-city, multi-round surveillance

This research was undertaken to characterise the level and distribution of aflatoxin contamination of maize flour, a key food safety concern in Kenya. More than 1,200 samples of maize flour were collected and analyzed over the course of one year, allowing a robust characterization of relative risk across geography and product type. Informally milled flour was found to be significantly more contaminated than branded flour, a result attributable to the refining process applied to this flour. The results of this study can be used to inform messaging to consumers about the relative riskiness of informally versus formally milled flour, and for geographical targeting of resources for aflatoxin mitigation.

Evaluating the gendered credit constraints and uptake of an insurance-linked credit product

Smallholder farmers in low- and medium-income countries lack sufficient access to agricultural production credit that can help them adopt new technologies and improve their farm production. Compared to men, women smallholder farmers face additional social, and economic barriers that further limit their credit access. Bundling agricultural credit with insurance, or risk contingent credit (RCC), provides a mechanism for addressing some of the credit access constraints and reducing credit rationing among smallholder farmers. In this paper, we evaluate the gendered determinants of credit rationing and the gender differences of the effects of RCC innovation on credit uptake decisions. We use three-wave panel data from a randomized control trial (RCT) in Kenya. We find that female-headed households (FHH) are significantly more risk rationed (or demand-side credit constrained) compared to male-headed households (MHH), however, the gender of the household head does not significantly determine the household quantity rationing status (supply-side constrained). We also find that farmers randomly assigned to be offered the RCC are up to four percent more likely to take up credit. RCC’s impacts on credit uptake decisions do not vary with the gender of the household head, however, RCC has a differential positive and significant impact on the credit uptake decisions of farmers that were previously (at baseline) risk rationed. Based on these findings, we suggest that policies should focus on reducing gendered demand-side barriers to credit access, especially among poorer women households. Climate financing innovations such as RCC should also be designed and delivered in a gender-inclusive manner to accommodate women farmers who face time, liquidity, and financial literacy barriers.

Methods used to estimate the poverty impact of increases in international food prices

The prices of agricultural commodities have increased on international markets since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020 and spiked after the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022. The price increases were particularly notable in the case of wheat, maize, and sorghum, which are staple foods in many developing countries. This prompted a wave of research to better understand the effect of these price changes on income and poverty in low-income countries. IFPRI carried out a set of country studies to explore the poverty impact of higher staple grain prices on six countries in sub-Saharan Africa: Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Kenya, and Ethiopia (see Martin and Minot, 2023a, 2023b, and 2023c and Minot and Martin, 2023a, 2023b, and 2023c). This brief describes the methods and data used in those studies.

Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in Kenya's food system: Economic interdependencies and policy opportunities

Low- and middle-income countries worldwide share the common challenge of achieving sustainable economic development while reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This challenge is complex due to the interconnectedness of economic activities, where policies targeting one industry can have ripple effects on others. Therefore, it is crucial to understand integrated GHG emissions and their relationships across industries within an economy to inform effective policy formulation. Kenya, as a middle-income country experiencing rapid economic growth, faces an urgent need to address this challenge. This study analyzes the economic relationships between agricultural production, the food industry, and other sectors of the economy in Kenya to identify key drivers of national GHG emissions from the food system. To accomplish this, an environmentally extended input-output (EEIO) table is employed to calculate both direct and indirect emissions for 38 activities of Kenya’s economy, as well as emissions embodied in final goods. Direct emissions refer to those generated during the production process of an activity, while indirect emissions are produced by other activities that provide inputs to the activity of interest. The findings reveal that agriculture is the largest contributor to GHG emissions in Kenya, with the majority of emissions stemming from direct sources such as enteric fermentation and manure management in livestock production. Additionally, the study finds that total emission intensity in the manufacturing sector is considerably higher than in most agricultural activities, except for livestock production, primarily due to the significant level of indirect emissions associated with manufacturing processes. Within the agricultural sector, cereals and livestock production exhibit high levels of direct emissions, while export crops like coffee and tea, as well as vegetable cultivation, show relatively higher indirect emissions. Addressing GHG emissions from the livestock sector emerges as a crucial step in significantly reducing agricultural emissions in Kenya. The dairy sub-sector presents an opportunity for intensification and technological advancements, as climate-smart technologies have already demonstrated their potential to enhance productivity while reducing emissions. Conversely, mitigating GHG emissions in beef production, which is primarily concentrated in ecologically fragile areas, will require institutional innovations focusing on rangeland management, disease control, and scaling up livestock marketing efforts. While the intensification of dairy production can contribute to agricultural growth and development in Kenya, its impact on mitigating GHG emissions is expected to be limited at the national scale.

The economywide effects of reducing food loss and waste in developing countries

One of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is reducing food loss and waste (FLW) across all stages of food value chains, including the on-farm production, the off-farm postharvest, processing, and distribution, and the household consumption stages. We employ general equilibrium models for Bangladesh, Kenya, and Nigeria to assess the economywide implications of reducing FLW at different stages of value chains. Halving FLW results in GDP increases of between 1.1 and 2 percent, with up to 13 million people lifted out of poverty across the three countries. Diets also improve – especially in Kenya and Nigeria – due to greater availability and lower prices of healthy foods such as fruits and vegetables. Although most of the gains originate from reducing FLW in the on-farm production stage, strong intersectoral linkages mean around 30 percent of measured GDP gains are realized in non-agricultural sectors. Reducing waste at the final consumption stage has small negative impacts on GDP as households purchase less food without reducing their food intake. We conclude that the significant economywide gains provide a justification for adopting FLW reduction strategies, although costing the policy and investment options needed to reduce FLW is an important area for future research.

Kenya's agrifood system: Structure and drivers of transformation

This analysis is composed of two parts. The evolving structure of Kenya’s agrifood system (AFS) and its contribution to national development is assessed using a series of Social Accounting Matrixes (SAMs) for Kenya for the period 2009–2019. Economic performance is also assessed at subsector level to better understand the contributions of different agrifood value chains to Kenya’s development and economic transformation in recent years. The analysis reveals that the effects of AFS transformation stretches well beyond primary agriculture, creating jobs and income opportunities throughout the economy. In fact, the off-farm components of the AFS have grown more rapidly than primary agriculture, although differences in market structure and internationally tradable status contributed to varied patterns of growth across value chains. The analysis further reveals that it is the domestic market, not exports, that has driven the recent growth in Kenya’s AFS. Rapid urbanization and increased incomegenerating opportunities in the rural nonfarm sector are causing dietary patterns to shift, which will continue to shape the transformation of the AFS in Kenya. A forward-looking analysis using IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) model – an economywide modeling framework – assesses the potential impacts of future value chain growth on development outcome indicators. The findings reveal that value chains differ considerably in their effectiveness in achieving various development outcomes. Promoting only one value chain may also result in trade-offs across these development goals. For example, the coffee and tea value chains are highly effective at raising off-farm employment in the AFS, but they have weak impacts on diet quality. Likewise, cattle and dairy have strong off-farm GDP effects within the AFS, but are relatively ineffective at reducing poverty. By promoting and investing in several value chains simultaneously, policymakers can leverage synergies and mitigate trade-offs across development outcomes associated with specific value chains. The RIAPA analysis here suggests that joint promotion of the pulses and oilseeds, fruits and nuts, and cattle and dairy value chains will be most effective at impacting the full spectrum of development outcomes tracked in the model, including poverty, growth, jobs, and diets. However, the final value chain selection may change depending on the importance policymakers attach to the respective development outcomes.

Landscape analysis of early childhood development and agriculture in Bangladesh, Kenya, Peru, Rwanda, and Sri Lanka

In low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), 40% of pre-school-aged children have poor development, which undermines educational attainment and earnings later in life. To reach their full developmental potential, children require adequate nutrition, good health, responsive care, and opportunities for early learning. Early childhood development (ECD) interventions can mitigate multiple risk factors related to responsive care and opportunities for early learning, whereas agricultural interventions can mitigate health and nutrition risk factors. In addition, organic farming and agroecological interventions more broadly can promote ECD by reducing pesticide exposure, a known environmental risk factor for poor ECD. Despite this potential of individual interventions to promote and protect ECD, evidence is lacking on the potential additive or synergistic effects of combining agricultural and ECD interventions. Moreover, little is known about the acceptability and feasibility of combining agricultural and ECD interventions among different stakeholders (e.g., beneficiaries, implementers). To date, most agricultural and ECD interventions to promote and protect child outcomes in LMICs have largely been conducted in rural settings. Thus, little is known about what the design of these types of interventions could look like in urban and peri-urban settings.

Using a programme impact pathway to design, monitor, and evaluate interventions to commercialise biofortified crops and foods

Using a theory of change (TOC; a simplified definition of how and why an intervention is expected to work) or a programme impact pathway (PIP; a more detailed description of the causal pathways through which an intervention is delivered) to guide design, monitoring, and evaluation efforts is increasingly being used across various nutrition interventions, yet there are few documented examples in biofortification programmes. During the inception phase of the Commercialisation of Biofortified Crops (CBC) programme, which aims to scale up production and consumption of biofortified foods in six countries in Africa and Asia, a PIP was developed and used to inform the design of commercialisation strategies and their monitoring and evaluation. The objective of this paper is to describe that process. Using a generic TOC for biofortification as a starting point, we developed detailed PIPs for each of the nine country-crop combinations. Within each PIP, we identified the commercial pathway(s) and selected the one(s) with the most potential for impact. We then identified the binding constraint along each pathway and a set of activities and resources to tackle it. This process formed the basis of the country-crop commercialisation strategies and associated workplans. Additionally, we developed a monitoring reference manual that included a set of standardised indicators mapped to the PIP and detailed indicator reference sheets. These tools were contextualised for each country-crop combination and formed the basis of the programme’s monitoring and evaluation plans. Using a PIP to guide the development of programme strategies and measurement of achievements is good practice to ensure that programmes have high potential for impact and that relevant information needed to understand the evolution of results along the PIP is collected throughout programme implementation.

Developing strategies to commercialise biofortified crops and foods

Biofortification (or nutrient enrichment) of staple crops has the potential to contribute to reducing micronutrient deficiencies by increasing micronutrient intakes. In 2019, GAIN and HarvestPlus entered a partnership to lead the Commercialisation of Biofortified Crops (CBC) Programme, which aims to catalyse commercial markets for biofortified crops in six countries across Africa and Asia. During the CBC programme inception phase, information on the value chains and their challenges and opportunities for commercialisation were collected for each country-crop combination through literature reviews and third party-led commercialisation assessments. In this paper, we summarise the processes undertaken to identify the potential opportunities and barriers for commercialisation and describe how the findings were used to develop commercialisation strategies for nine country-crop combinations.

Kenya Commodity Price Report - February 2022

The Food Price Monitor: Kenya is a monthly report developed for the Food Security Portal (FSP), facilitated by IFPRI, with the goal of providing clear and accurate information on commodity price trends and variations in selected markets throughout Kenya. The reports are intended as a resource for those interested in agricultural commodity markets in Kenya, namely producers, traders, consumers, or other agricultural stakeholders.

Kenya commodity price report - January 2022

The Food Price Monitor: Kenya is a monthly report developed for the Food Security Portal (FSP), facilitated by IFPRI, with the goal of providing clear and accurate information on commodity price trends and variations in selected markets throughout Kenya. The reports are intended as a resource for those interested in agricultural commodity markets in Kenya, namely producers, traders, consumers, or other agricultural stakeholders.

Unit root tests: Common pitfalls and best practices

Since the seminal paper by Granger and Newbold (1974) on spurious regressions, applied econometricians have become aware of the consequences of unit roots in empirical analysis with time series data. Yet one can still find many published papers with unit root tests implemented in an inappropriate way. The objective of this Technical Note is to highlight the common pitfalls and best practices when testing for unit roots. In addition to the theoretical discussion, we provide examples using price data from Kenya, Mali, Togo, and South Africa to illustrate the procedures we think are worth following.

Gender and seed entrepreneurism: Case studies in Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya and Tanzania

Our paper seeks to identify factors that inhibit and promote women’s success in seed businesses, through three case studies of women’s and men’s entrepreneurship across varying seed-related value chains and country contexts in Africa south of the Sahara. The cases include chicken seed dissemination in Ethiopia and Tanzania, tilapia seed production in Ghana, and marketing and trading of improved maize and sorghum seeds in Kenya. Applying a gender lens, we use qualitative methods to analyze women’s and men’s motivations to engage in seed businesses, the challenges they confront to start and succeed, and prospects for sustainability and continued success. We also use quantitative data to characterize the levels of empowerment of the entrepreneurs sampled. Results show that time flexibility and profitability of the business can be important considerations for women’s engagement in seed entrepreneurship, and the social normative context of the sector is also critical. Furthermore, outside support can be a key factor influencing women’s seed entrepreneurship, per the Kenya case.

Staying afloat in the milk business: Borrowing and selling on credit among informal milk vendors in Nairobi

Studies on credit schemes for small-scale entrepreneurs have documented their potential to alleviate poverty and improve food security, nutrition, and health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries. Other studies find mixed impacts of credit schemes on reducing income inequality, empowering women, and enhancing children’s education. Moreover, growing evidence finds that entrepreneurs offer credit to customers; little is known about what this practice means for entrepreneurs, and even less about gendered differences in this practice. Herein, we consider the case of final retailers in agricultural value chains and examine how male and female informal milk vendors from peri-urban Nairobi borrow and sell on credit, and how these experiences affect their businesses where there are few formal safeguards to ensure repayment. In 2017, we conducted 49 individual interviews, four key informant interviews, and six focus groups with men and women who were current or former milk vendors. A thematic analysis revealed that vendors sell on credit to appeal to customers, which may be advantageous when vendors need to rid themselves of milk before it spoils, regardless of gender. With few strategies to recoup costs from customers who fail to repay, however, failure to collect debt may cause default for vendors who acquired milk via informal borrowing. The consequences are likely more severe for women vendors, who generally have less capital to fall back on relative to men. Development organizations should identify gender-sensitive financial services that can help entrepreneurs maintain viable businesses despite the volatility of borrowing and selling on credit.

Regulatory Options to Improve Seed Systems for Vegetatively Propagated Crops in Developing Countries

In many developing countries, smallholder farmers cultivating vegetatively propagated crops (VPCs) have limited access to quality planting material. This constraint can limit both the yield of and returns on VPC cultivation. Yet policy and regulatory initiatives designed to strengthen access to quality VPC planting materials have been relatively unsuccessful to date. Part of the problem is the unique biological and economic characteristics of vegetative propagation and its distinctness from cereal crops, which dominate narratives on seed system reforms. Drawing on qualitative analysis of policy and practice, this study examines reform options related to quality assurance regulations in four crop-country combinations: cassava in Nigeria and Vietnam, and potato in Kenya and Vietnam. The study highlights theory and evidence on existing models of regulation; alternative models that may better incentivize cost-effective multiplication and distribution; and recommendations for policy, regulation, and investment in VPC seed markets. Findings indicate that regulations designed around strict and centralized quality control systems tend to limit market size, while more localized production systems are limited by both capacity and reach. These findings suggest the need for alternatives that balance a permissive regulatory regime with decentralized production systems, grassroots capacity development, market surveillance, and systems that integrate internal (producer-level) quality assurance with external (regulatory) quality assurance.

Exploring the regulatory space for improving availability, access and quality of vegetatively propagated crop seed: potato in Kenya

Potato ranks second staple food crop in Kenya. The Government seeks rapid yield growth in the potato subsector, however with only 2% of potato seed planted currently certified there is a persistent shortage of quality seed. There is no consensus on an appropriate model for quality seed assurance which can ensure increased availability and access to quality seed by smallholder farmers, while minimizing risk of spread of plant diseases. This study addressed the question of whether the current seed regulatory framework in Kenya and its implementation meets the need for increased availability and access to quality seed potato, for who, and with what consequences? Secondary data and analysis were complemented by semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions involving 72 stakeholders from public, private and civil society conducted in the major potato production areas, and at national level. Our findings show a range of different actors have different and sometimes conflicting interests. Seed potato needs to be produced on a large-scale with enough land and resources to meet rotation and isolation standards and inspection costs. However, this has implications for equitable participation in the seed potato industry. Current regulatory and inspection procedures are perceived by small-scale seed producers as policing rather than facilitating quality seed production. This highlights compromises between achieving short term food security and managing risk of spread of plant diseases. The feasibility of different approaches to manage bacterial wilt and potato cyst nematode are discussed with implications for different scales of seed production. Several options are reviewed, with their trade-offs, emphasising the need to for inclusive stakeholder consultations to negotiate towards a common interest space.

Gender-inclusive governance of “self-help” groups in rural Kenya

There is vast literature on groups as a useful mechanism for rural development, especially for women. However, for group participation to fulfil on potential benefits to women, gender-specific constraints must be addressed. This study examines how to promote gender-inclusive governance of mixed-sex self-help groups in the African context, analysing twenty mixed-sex focus group discussions with 190 group members in rural western Kenya. Emphasizing group member perceptions and beliefs about participation and governance, we undertake an empirical assessment of institutional factors that explain and facilitate effective participation of female members. We find that group-member endowments impact the group’s interpretation in terms of their understanding of gender issues and political processes, and that the pro-gender intentions behind governance structures are more important than the structures themselves. Furthermore, groups in this context serve as a distinct parallel institution to that of the home that enable them to push the boundaries of community gender norms.

Improving data quality for the CAADP biennial review: a partnership initiative piloted in five countries

This paper presents results of a data partnership framework for strengthening evidence-based planning and implementation that was initiated in 2019 in five selected African countries (Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Senegal, and Togo) during the second round of the CAADP biennial review (BR) process. It analyzes the effect of the activities conducted on the data reporting rate and the quality of data reported in the five pilot countries, compared with what was achieved in like-pilot countries. The like-pilot countries are non-pilot countries that have characteristics like the pilot countries at the baseline which affect selection into the pilot or the data reporting and quality outcomes. Different methods (standard deviations, propensity score matching, and two-stage weighted regression) are used to identify the like-pilot countries, and a difference-in-difference method is used to estimate the effect of the pilot activities on the outcomes.

The capacity-strengthening activities focused on working with the country Biennial Review (BR) team to: assess the inaugural or 2018 BR process and identify the data gaps; constitute and train members of data clusters to compile and check the data for the 2020 BR; and then validate and submit the data. The findings show that the activities helped the pilot countries to improve their performance in the data reporting rate and the quality of data reported in the 2020 BR. The largest improvement is observed in Togo and Senegal, followed by Kenya and Malawi, and then Mozambique.

The average increase in the data reporting rate between 2018 and 2020 BRs for the pilot countries is greater than the average progress made in the like-pilot countries by about 6 to 9 % pts. This derives mostly from improvements in the data reporting rate for the indicators under theme 3 on ending hunger. Regarding the quality of data reported (measured as the percent of the data reported that have issues) too, the pilot countries on average performed better than the like-pilot countries, especially with respect to the data reported under themes 2 on investment in agriculture and 3 on ending hunger. But most of the estimated differences have low or no statistical significance. Implications for sustaining the progress made in the pilot countries, as well as for extending the activities to other countries, for the next rounds of the BR are discussed.

Observability of food safety losses in maize: Evidence from Kenya

Unlike physical losses, deterioration of food safety can be difficult to observe. In low- and middle- income countries, much of the food supply is never tested for safety hazards. We analyze data from 1500 maize samples and associated consumer surveys collected from clients of small-scale hammer mills in rural Kenya. We find that while visible damage to maize is penalized by lower prices, there is no correlation between price and aflatoxin, a carcinogenic fungal contaminant, implying an absence of market incentives to manage this aspect of food loss. Aflatoxin contamination is, however, correlated with consumer perceptions of quality, especially for self-produced maize, suggesting an information asymmetry that could lead to inefficiencies in this market.

Supermarket contracts and smallholder farmers: Implications for income and multidimensional poverty

The food retail sector in many developing countries is transforming with a rapid growth of modern supermarkets. Supermarkets are not only influencing how food is sold to consumers, but also how agricultural products are sourced from farmers. Especially for the procurement of fresh fruits and vegetables, supermarkets often contract farmers directly to ensure consistent, high-quality supply. Previous studies analyzed the effects of supermarket contracts on smallholder farmers’ income. However, most existing studies relied on cross-section data and focused on the estimation of average income effects. Possible implications for other dimensions of household welfare were hardly examined. We add to this literature by using panel data from smallholder vegetable farmers in Kenya and econometric models with household fixed effects to estimate average and heterogeneous treatment effects of supermarket contracts on income and multidimensional poverty. On average, supermarket contracts increase per capita income in smallholder farm households by 60\%. We also find significant reductions in income poverty and multidimensional poverty. Quantile regressions show that farmers in all income groups benefit, but richer households benefit more than poorer ones in absolute terms. On the other hand, supermarket contracts cause the strongest reductions in multidimensional deprivations among the poorest households.

NAIP toolkit for Malabo domestication: Economic modeling of agricultural growth and investment strategy, case study of Kenya

The Malabo Agenda on Accelerated Agricultural Growth and Transformation has brought technical challengesto the development of agricultural strategiesby expanding the number of commitments and goalsunder the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme.In this paper, we describe and apply an economic modeling framework that wasdeveloped to identify the agricultural investment priority areas for a country and to define milestones to track its progress towards the Malabo goals. The framework consists ofa three-layer simulation model that aimstocapturemultiple Malabo commitments and goals. First, the agricultural productivity analysis uses the stochastic meta-frontier technique to assess opportunities to increase agricultural productivity. Second, the economywide analysis uses an agricultural and investment focused computable general equilibrium model to capture the Malabo goalson agricultural growth, intra-Africantrade of agricultural commodities, and public and private agricultural investments.Third, the microeconomic analysis builds upon statistical economic modeling to allow direct measurement and simulation of the Malabo goals on poverty and hunger. The modeling framework is applied to Kenya using the most recent data.TheMalabo Agenda simulation results indicate that Kenya’s current nonagriculture-led growth isnot sufficient to achieving the Malabo overarching goals on poverty and hunger. Agriculture-led growthcomplemented by extendedsocial assistanceis more likely to close the income growth and inequality gaps and contribute to achieving the multiple Malabo commitments and goals by 2025.

Demand for aflatoxin-safe maize in Kenya: Dynamic response to price and advertising

This paper characterizes consumer demand for food safety and the dynamic impact of a social marketing campaign to promote a tested, third party verified maize flour in Kenya, where dietary exposure to the fungal toxin aflatoxin is a major public health concern. Consumption of high levels of aflatoxin can be fatal, but this is relatively rare. Of greater concern is chronic exposure, which has been linked in numerous studies to liver cancer and may also contribute to child stunting. A significant proportion of the maize consumed in Kenya, where it is the primary dietary staple, fails to meet regulatory standards. One study reported widely in the Kenyan press found that 65% of maize samples collected from 20 major millers did not meet the national standard (Gathura, 2011) and another based on over 900 samples collected from retailers found that 26% of branded maize flour was above this standard (Hoffmann and Moser, 2017).

Regulatory compliance in the Kenyan dairy sector: Awareness and compliance among farmers and vendors

The purpose of this research note is to describe relevant policies and standards, and to summarise recent research and literature to gain insight into compliance with dairy standards in Kenya. We highlight key points of the main policies pertaining to the sale of dairy products, and present unpublished findings from three recent studies conducted by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) and partners and the results of a rapid literature review.

Can markets support smallholder adoption of a food safety technology? Aflasafe in Kenya

In this paper, we test the impact of a simulated market premium for food safety, and of bundling rainfall insurance with an aflatoxin-reducing technology (Aflasafe KE01), on smallholder farmers’ adoption of this technology. To identify these impacts, we conducted a randomized trial through which farmers in one of the most aflatoxin-affected regions in the world were given the opportunity to purchase Aflasafe under experimentally varied market conditions. Half of 152 pre-existing producer groups were assigned to a market linkage treatment and offered a premium price for the maize they aggregated if it conformed to the East African aflatoxin standard. The market linkage treatment was cross-cut with a bundled insurance treatment, in which Aflasafe could only be purchased together with an actuarily fair rainfall index insurance product designed to insure against maize losses due to unfavorable weather conditions during the growing period. Farmers not assigned to the bundled insurance treatment who purchased Aflasafe were able to purchase the same insurance separately.

Traceability of horticultural produce in Kenya: Situation and trajectory

Traceability means it is possible to trace food back to its origin. If consumers become ill from the food they have eaten, or food is found to contain a harmful chemical, traceability allows this food to be traced from the shop where it was purchased, to the trader who delivered it, to the factory that processed or packed it, and ultimately to the farm where it was grown. In this way, the source of the problem can be identified and corrected [1]. Traceability is considered a fundamental component of modern food safety systems.

Government expenditures in Kenya, 1950–2014: Determinants and agricultural growth effects

Annual data on Kenya from 1950 to 2014 are used to analyze the determinants of the level and composition of government expenditures and estimate the agricultural-output returns to the different types of government expenditures. The paper analyzes expenditures for six functions (general administration, defense, education, health, agriculture, and other economic functions—transport, communications, etc.) as well as the capital-to-recurrent expenditure ratios within each of the six functions. Simultaneous equations modeling methods are employed, and different diagnostic tests are used to check for and address issues with stationarity, causality, and autocorrelation. Different model specifications are used to assess the sensitivity of the results to using different measures and combinations of the conceptual variables that are hypothesized to affect the composition of government expenditures and agricultural production.

Improving food safety on the farm: Experimental evidence from Kenya on agricultural incentives and subsidies as public health investments

Evidence continues to mount that foodborne illness imposes a staggering health burden in developing countries. However, standard approaches used by developed country governments to ensure food safety are not appropriate in settings where regulatory enforcement capacity is weak and most firms are small and informal. Thus, interventions to improve food safety in developing countries must take into account the constraints and incentives faced by producers in these countries. In this paper, we test the impact of two such interventions: subsidies for technologies that improve food safety and price premiums for safer produce. We examine the case of on-farm control of aflatoxin, a carcinogenic toxin linked to child stunting that is produced by a fungus commonly found on maize and groundnut. We show that compared to Kenyan farmers who produce maize only for their family’s own consumption, Kenyan farmers who produce maize for sale are less likely to undertake post-harvest practices that increase the unobservable quality of aflatoxin safety. Employing randomized discount vouchers, we find that willingness to pay for a new post-harvest technology to prevent aflatoxin contamination is significantly lower among market producers than subsistence farmers. However, we find that take-up of the technology among market producers increases when they have the opportunity to sell aflatoxin-safe maize at a premium a few months after harvest. Using take-up rates from the experiment, we model the impacts of public subsidies and market incentives for aflatoxin control. We find that subsidization of aflatoxin control technologies is a cost-effective strategy for reducing liver cancer and possibly also for reducing stunting in children. The most cost-effective technologies considered are widely adopted by both subsistence and market producers, implying little additional impact of a price premium on food safety.

Food safety in Kenya: Focus on dairy

This note goes beyond the rumors to summarize the scientific evidence on milk safety, and offers practical recommendations for improving milk safety in Kenya.

Food safety in Kenya: Focus on fruits and vegetables

Consumption of fruits and vegetables is important for maintaining good health and preventing chronic disease; Kenyans consume too little of these foods relative to dietary recommendations. Contaminated fruits and vegetables are an important conduit of foodborne disease (FBD), which represents a significant share of the global burden of disease, particularly in Africa. Improving the safety of fruits and vegetables and increasing their consumption are both important for improving population health. Concern about food safety is high among consumers who shop at supermarkets and specialty grocery stores in Nairobi, and prices for fruits and vegetables in these outlets far above those observed in open-air markets. This suggests significant potential for farmers to benefit economically from the production of safe, high-quality produce if credible certification systems can be developed. The FBD burden, as well as premium market opportunities for horticultural producers, are set to continue to increase in Kenya as a burgeoning middle class demands a more diversified and nutritious diet. Risk of FBD can be reduced at every stage, from farm to fork. Increasing awareness among farmers, processors, retailers, and consumers is thus a critical step toward safer food in Kenya The Kenyan government has laid out a comprehensive set of actions to improve food safety in the 2013 National Food Safety Policy, but these have yet to be implemented. Many of these interventions could be taken up by county governments. Success by KEPHIS in the enforcement of regulations in crops destined for export demonstrate the potential for public action to improve food safety in Kenya, and should be emulated in the domestic market.

Post-harvest losses in fruits and vegetables: The Kenyan context

This report collates and contextualizes available evidence on post-harvest losses (PHL) in horticultural crops in Kenya. We begin by outlining the extent of PHL in horticultural crops and its repercussions in the context of food security and poverty reduction. We then describe the growing importance of the horticulture sector in Kenya and its growth potential, especially in terms of exports. Following this discussion, we detail PHL for two important horticultural crops, mangoes and tomatoes, for which Kenya-specific evidence is available. We discuss ways to mitigate PHL from three angles: technological, economic or behavioral, and institutional. Documenting cost-effective technological interventions to mitigate PHL, we catalogue ways to tackle PHL at the individual farmer level. We then highlight behavioral bottlenecks to adoption of such technologies and the need to design interventions in ways that address these. Finally, we discuss structural and institutional changes that would need to accompany individual-level interventions to bring about significant reductions in PHL.

Supermarket shopping and nutritional outcomes: A panel data analysis for urban Kenya

Overweight and obesity are growing health problems in many developing countries. Rising obesity rates are the result of changes in people’s diets and lifestyles. Income growth and urbanization are factors that contribute to these changes. Modernizing food retail environments may also play a certain role. For instance, the rapid spread of supermarkets in many developing countries could affect consumer food choices and thus nutritional outcomes. However, concrete evidence about the effects of supermarkets on consumer diets and nutrition is thin. A few existing studies have analyzed related linkages with cross-sectional survey data. We add to this literature by using panel data from households and individuals in urban Kenya. Employing panel regression models with individual fixed effects and controlling for other factors we show that shopping in supermarkets significantly increases body mass index (BMI). We also analyze impact pathways. Shopping in supermarkets contributes to higher consumption of processed and highly processed foods and lower consumption of unprocessed foods. These results confirm that the retail environment affects people’s food choices and nutrition. However, the effects depend on the types of foods offered. Rather than thwarting modernization in the retail sector, policies that incentivize the sale of more healthy foods – such as fruits and vegetables – in supermarkets may be more promising to promote desirable nutritional outcomes.

Health insurance, a friend in need? Evidence from financial and health diaries in Kenya

Health insurance can protect consumption from health shocks, but it can also crowd out informal transfers. This paper examines whether health insurance improves consumption smoothing in the face of health shocks, and to what extent results depend on households’ access to informal transfers as a risk coping strategy. Using high-frequency panel data on health and finances collected in rural Kenya, we show that mobile money users have stronger access to informal transfers than nonusers. We further find that health shocks induce nonusers of mobile money to lower their nonhealth expenditures by approximately 25 percent in weeks when they are uninsured. These same households are able to smooth consumption in weeks with insurance coverage, due to lower out-of-pocket health expenditures. In contrast, mobile money users are able to smooth consumption when experiencing health shocks even in the absence of health insurance, due to an inflow of informal transfers. For this group, health insurance improves healthcare utilization and does not crowd out the inflow informal transfers during weeks with health shocks. These findings have implications for the design of health insurance and mobile health financing products.

Liquid milk: Cash constraints and day-to-day intertemporal choice in financial diaries

This paper analyzes implications of cash constraints for collective marketing, using the case of the Kenyan dairy sector. Collective marketing, for instance through cooperatives, can improve smallholder farmer income but relies on informal, nonenforceable agreements to sell outputs collectively. Side selling of output in the local market occurs frequently and is typically attributed to price differences between the market and cooperative. This paper provides an alternative explanation, namely that farmers sell in the local market when they are cash constrained because cooperatives defer payments while buyers in local markets pay cash immediately. Building on semiparametric estimation techniques for panel data, we find robust evidence of this theory. High-frequency, high-detail panel data show that farmers sell more in the local market, in particular to buyers who pay cash immediately, in weeks when they have low cash on hand. Moreover, households cope with health shocks by selling more milk in the local market and less to the cooperative, but only in weeks when they are not covered by health insurance. Increased flexibility in payment and the provision of insurance through agricultural cooperatives can potentially reduce side selling and improve the performance of collective marketing arrangements.

Intertemporal choice and income regularity: Non-fungibility in a lab-in-the-field experiment

Motivated by evidence of mental accounting, this paper tests whether the choice of when to be paid depends on the income type. A lab-in-the-field experiment in Kenya asked dairy cooperative members to allocate both their regular milk payments and an irregular windfall between two dates. We find that participants allocated milk payments to the later of the two dates but allocated the windfall to the earlier date. Most participants self-reported deferring their milk payments in order to save for lump-sum expenses. Those planning to use milk payments for smaller, more frequent purchases were less likely to defer payments. Farmers hence appeared to earmark regular milk payments, but not the irregular windfall, for bulky expenditures. This behavior potentially explains why discount rates elicited using experimenter money are often higher than those inferred from observed choices over regular income. Given that compliance with informal contracts depends on whether the timing of payments aligns with recipient preferences, these findings also have implications for contract design in rural value chains.

Gender and Institutional Aspects of Climate-Smart Agricultural Practices: Evidence from Kenya

This paper analyses gender differences in awareness and adoption of climate-smart agricultural (CSA) practices. It examines what factors are associated with the likelihood of adoption of a wide range of CSA practices for 376 women and 375 men in two different areas of Kenya. This information is aimed at improving the targeting and design of interventions that are trying to achieve greater and more equitable agricultural development in East Africa and elsewhere. Our results suggest there is still much work to be done in increasing awareness of improved agricultural practices that enhance livelihoods and resilience to change, including a changing climate. Simply put, increasing awareness is necessary to increase adoption.

Firm heterogeneity in food safety provision: Evidence from aflatoxin tests in Kenya

The lack of a reliably safe food supply in developing countries imposes major costs on both public health and market performance. This paper addresses the question of whether and why food processing firms voluntarily invest in food safety in the absence of effective regulatory enforcement. Using data from more than 900 maize flour samples representing 23 distinct brands in eastern and central Kenya, we explore the relationship between price, brand, and aflatoxin contamination. Aflatoxin is a toxin common in maize, groundnuts, and other crops around the world; and although it is unobservable to the consumer, it may be correlated with other quality characteristics. We find a strong negative correlation between price and contamination rates, which is consistent with certain brands investing more in quality to avoid loss of reputational capital.

Climate, change adaptation assets and group-based approaches: Gendered perceptions from Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Mali, and Kenya

Using a participatory rural appraisal approach, a series of qualitative studies were conducted in four countries facing negative impacts of climate change—Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya and Mali—in order to determine men’s and women’s perceptions of climate change, adaptive approaches, and the degree to which assets and group participation play a role in adaptation strategies. Similarities were found across countries in terms of perceptions of climate change, impacts, and strategies for adaptation. Farmers and pastoralists, groups heavily dependent on natural resources, are starkly aware of and impacted by subtle climatic changes, and those with a stronger asset base were better able to adapt to changes and shocks.

The role of livestock in the Kenyan economy: Policy analysis using a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model for Kenya

The major significance of this study is thus, to give the already existing dynamic CGE model the ability to better treat the livestock sector by capturing its complete natural picture through coupling of the stock–flow feature of the sector into the model.

Understanding the policy landscape for climate change adaptation: A cross-country comparison using the Net-map method

In the context of increasing vulnerability to climate change for people dependent on natural resources for their livelihoods, the International Food Policy Research Institute and partner organizations in Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, and Bangladesh undertook a project broadly aiming to create knowledge that will help policymakers and development agencies to strengthen the capacity of male and female smallholder farmers and livestock keepers to manage climate-related risks. This study—one component of the project—examines the networks and power dynamics of stakeholders in the four target countries so as to (1) identify potential partners in the research process, (2) find out which organizations could make use of the research findings in their activities, and (3) inform the communication and outreach strategy of the research project. This paper describes the network structures for climate change policy, the actors in the networks with high centrality and influence scores, and the implications of these results for outreach and dissemination.

Adaptation Actions in Africa: Evidence that Gender Matters

This paper presents the initial data analyses of the CCAFS gender survey implemented in four sites in Africa. Using descriptive statistics we show gender differences in terms of perceptions of climate change, awareness and adoption of climate smart agricultural (CSA) practices, and types and sources of agro-climatic information in the four sites.We find that both men and women are experiencing changes in long-run weather patterns and that they are changing their behaviours in response; albeit relatively minor shifts in existing agricultural practices. For example, the most prevalent changes reported include switching crop varieties, switching types of crops and changing planting dates. As expected, women are less aware of many CSA practices. Encouragingly, this same pattern does not hold when it comes to adoption; in many cases, in East Africa in particular, women, when aware, are more likely than or just as likely as men to adopt CSA practices. In West Africa, overall, the adoption of these practices was much lower. In addition, we see that access to information from different sources varies greatly between men and women and among the sites; however, promisingly, those with access to information report using it to make changes to their agricultural practices. Our findings suggest that targeting women with climate and agricultural information is likely to result in uptake of new agricultural practices for adaptation.

Can market-based approaches to technology development and dissemination benefit women smallholder farmers? A qualitative assessment of gender dynamics in the ownership, purchase, and use of irrigation pumps in Kenya and Tanzania

This paper reports findings from a qualitative study undertaken in Tanzania and Kenya to examine women’s access to and ownership of KickStart pumps and the implications for their ability to make major decisions on crop choices and use of income from irrigated crops. Results from sales-monitoring data show that women purchase less than 10 percent of the pumps and men continue to make most of the major decisions on crop choices and income use. These findings vary by type of crop, with men making major decisions on high-income crops such as tomatoes and women having relatively more autonomy on crops such as leafy vegetables.

Public account and coding system in Kenya: The trend and pattern of agricultural expenditure

This paper is part of a set of country case studies that take a detailed look at public expenditures in agriculture and at how these expenditure data are captured in government financial and budget accounts. The objective of these studies is to unpack the black box of public expenditure statistics reported in various cross-country datasets and ultimately enable the use of existing government accounts to identify levels and compositions of country-level agricultural spending data, with clearer knowledge of what these data are in fact accounting for.

Enhancing women’s assets to manage risk under climate change: Potential for group-based approaches

The project “Enhancing Women’s Assets to Manage Risk under Climate Change: Potential for Group-Based Approaches” aims to help poor women farmers and pastoralists in Africa south of the Sahara and South Asia—especially those in Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, and Bangladesh—manage risks under climate change. The notes in this collection explore how to protect or strengthen women’s control over critical assets, including natural resources and social capital. These notes also examine the potential for innovative and group-based approaches to increase women’s assets and strengthen their risk-management capabilities in the context of climate change.

Mitigating aflatoxin exposure to improve child growth in eastern Kenya

An estimated 165 million children worldwide under age five have stunted growth (Black et al., 2013). Growth retardation in young children is associated with delays in cognitive development, lower school achievement, and lower earnings in adulthood. Data from the 2008-2009 De-mographic and Health Survey in Kenya suggest that 35 per-cent of children under age five in Kenya are stunted. What is intriguing is that the same data show that the former Eastern Province of Kenya has less poverty and lower prevalence of childhood illness than five of the other seven provinces in the country (KNBS and ICF Macro, 2010), yet stunting in this region is 20% higher than the national average. This suggests factors beyond poverty and illness are in affecting child growth here.

Development of a participatory action research approach for four agricultural carbon projects in East Africa

This paper describes an action research process undertaken with four African agricultural carbon projects—CARE’s Sustainable Agriculture in Changing Climate Initiative in Western Kenya; World Vision’s Assisted Natural Regeneration Project in Humbo, Ethiopia; Vi Agroforestry’s Western Kenya Agricultural Carbon Project; and ECOTRUST’s Trees for Global Benefits in Uganda—to explore their institutional changes as project managers and communities work to build local capacity for project management. It describes the research protocol as well as the process by which it was collaboratively developed by researchers and carbon project managers. The paper also reports the results of the field work in each of the projects, which will be used to identify actions that they will implement in the next step of the action research process. The tools were generally successful in gathering the desired data, although modifications could allow future efforts to target questions to interviewees more effectively, include additional stakeholder groups such as government agents and project service providers, develop capacity for local-level data collection and analysis, and focus additional attention on local-level innovations and landscape-level coordination. The research yielded diverse topics for action across projects, as the projects are structured differently and are at different stages of development. Common themes included the need for partnership development, enhanced training of trainer programs, improvements in the sense of community ownership of projects, and stronger foundations for collective action throughout project and community institutions.

Organizational and institutional issues in climate change adaptation and risk management: Insights from practitioners’ survey in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Mali

This report provides some reflections and insights on the level of awareness, practices, and organizational and institutional issues being faced by countries as they adapt to climate change, based on interviews with 87 practitioners working in government agencies, local organizations, international organizations, and think thanks reporting involvement in climate change adaptation. Data were collected in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Mali using both an e-survey platform and face-to-face interviews.

Impact of tissue culture banana technology in Kenya: A difference-in-difference estimation approach

Poverty, growth, and income distribution in Kenya: A SAM perspective

This study seeks to highlight the level of income inequality in Kenya and its implications on various poverty reduction policies. The 2003 Kenya SAM is used to develop a multiplier simulation model which tracks the linkages among demand-driven shocks and economic growth, income generation, and income distribution for different economic groups.

Agricultural management for climate change adaptation, greenhouse gas mitigation, and agricultural productivity: Insights from Kenya

Changes in the agriculture sector are essential to mitigate and adapt to climate change, ensure food security for the growing population, and improve the livelihoods of poor smallholder producers. What agricultural strategies are needed to meet these challenges? To what extent are there synergies among these strategies? This paper examines these issues for smallholder producers in Kenya. Several practices emerge as triple wins in terms of climate adaptation, GHG mitigation, and productivity and profitability. In particular, integrated soil fertility management and improved livestock feeding are shown to provide multiple benefits across the agroecological zones examined. In addition, irrigation and soil and water conservation are also shown to be essential in the arid zone. The results suggest that agricultural investments targeted towards triple-win strategies will have the greatest payoff in terms of increased resilience of farm and pastoralist households to climate change, rural development, and climate change mitigation for generations to come.

Assessing the livelihood impacts of a livestock disease outbreak: An alternative approach

Because of the substantive role played by livestock in the income and asset portfolios of the poor, livestock diseases can be an important threat to livelihoods. Yet for a variety of reasons, there are few applicable methods and consequently scant literature to assess the impacts of livestock diseases on livelihood outcomes. Existing literature comprises small-area studies and computable models with wider geographic focus, both of which have limitations in this specific context. We propose an alternative approach for estimating the impacts of livestock diseases on livelihoods. This proposed approach is an adaptation of a quasi-experimental impact evaluation method, namely propensity score matching, which uses features available in large-scale datasets with wide geographic coverage to create counterfactual scenarios that could mimic outcomes of a disease outbreak. By its construction the method is well suited for ex ante impact assessment. As an illustration we apply the method to the hypothetical case of an avian flu outbreak in Kenya.

Private investment in agricultural research and technology transfer in Africa

This study is based on surveys of private-sector innovation and research in Kenya, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zambia in 2009 and 2010. With the exception of South Africa, Private R&D in Sub-Saharan Africa is still limited, but it is growing rapidly in several countries and is concentrated in the seed industry. The study found that innovations in plant varieties, machinery, pesticides, fertilizers, and poultry imported by private agribusiness have been important sources of new agricultural technology. A search of the literature shows that private technology increased agricultural productivity in Africa. The adoption of proprietary hybrids of maize increased yields in Tanzania. Modern poultry technology increased poultry productivity in Nigeria, and private sugarcane research in South Africa increased productivity there. Many studies show that proprietary genetically modified maize and cotton improved the yields, incomes, and health of smallholder farmers in South Africa and Burkina Faso.

The economics of desertification, land degradation, and drought: Toward an integrated global assessment

Attention to land degradation and environmental pollution has increased significantly in the past 25 years, largely due to greater levels of international cooperation and recognition that local changes in land resources have global impacts. As the world's focus on climate change increases, so, too, does the attention being paid to drought and its rise in frequency and severity. Despite this heightened global awareness, action to prevent or mitigate land degradation and drought at national or international levels has been limited, primarily because there are limited assessments regarding the cost of land degradation. Past global assessments have largely focused on the biophysical impacts of land degradation while little has been done to assess its global economic costs or the costs-versus-benefits of preventing or mitigating it. Additionally, past studies have largely focused on loss of on-site productivity and have paid limited attention to the off-site costs of land degradation and off-site benefits of land improvement. As part of the effort to address these and other gaps, this study was undertaken to prepare a framework for global assessment of the economics of desertification, land degradation, and drought (E-DLDD).

Implications of avian flu for economic development in Kenya

Kenya is vulnerable to avian flu given its position along migratory bird routes and proximity to other high-risk countries. This raises concerns about the effect an outbreak could have on economic development. We use a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of Kenya to simulate potential outbreaks of different severities, durations, and geographic spreads. Results indicate that even a severe outbreak does not greatly reduce economic growth. It does, however, significantly worsen poverty, because poultry is an important income source for poor farmers and a major food item in consumers' baskets. Avian flu therefore does pose a threat to future development in Kenya. Reducing the duration and geographic spread of an outbreak is found to substantially lower economic losses. However, losses are still incurred when poultry demand falls, even without a confirmed outbreak but only the threat of an outbreak. Our findings support monitoring poultry production and trade, responding rapidly to possible infections, and improving both farmers' and consumers' awareness of avian flu.

Value chain analysis of the Kenyan poultry industry: The case of Kiambu, Kilifi, Vihiga, and Nakuru Districts

The Kenyan poultry industry is characterized by dualism, comprised of both smallholder and large-scale poultry producers. The industry is characterized by two main production systems namely (i) the commercial hybrid poultry production system and (ii) the indigenous poultry production system. This study examines the poultry industry in Kenya with the aim of identifying the actors, assessing poultry and poultry product flows, and highlighting some of the policies and regulations relevant to potential outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Kenya.

Qualitative risk assessment of HPAI H5N1 transmission between small-scale commercial broiler chicken farms in Bogor, Indonesia

As part of the DFID-funded Pro-Poor HPAI Risk Reduction Project, a qualitative risk assessment was conducted for risk questions agreed during a stakeholder workshop in November, 2008, related to transmission of HPAI H5N1 between small-scale commercial broiler farms in the District and Municipality of Bogor. The overall risk of transmission was assessed as low, and risk estimates for the different pathways range from negligible to low. The risk associated with movement of contaminated visitor and equipment exchange was assessed as the highest. The risk of transmission via free-ranging poultry and wild birds was assessed negligible to very low, while via other pathways was assessed as negligible. It is important to note that the risk was estimated low because of a conditional probability effect (risk of infection/prevalence of HPAI H5N1 in small-scale broiler farm when data were collected was low). However, there are many steps/mechanisms of transmission associated with higher risk. It is highlighted that increasing prevalence of HPAI H5N1 in broiler farms will lead to increasing of risk of transmission. All risk estimates, except the one considering transmission via manure, were associated with a high uncertainty because of the lack of data on both the poultry sector in Indonesia and the epidemiology of HPAIV H5N1 more generally.

Emergence of Sri Lanka in European fish trade: Is there cause for concern in the Lake Victoria region (East Africa)?

This paper examines European Union (E.U.) demand for chilled fish fillets assuming product heterogeneity due to country of origin and assesses the structural adjustment in demand as indicated by the increase in imports from Sri Lanka since the tsunami in December 2004. The primary objective of this research is to assess how Sri Lanka's fish exports affected fish exports from Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda (Lake Victoria region). Although the results show no significant price competition between the Lake Victoria region and Sri Lanka, the Lake Victoria countries are clearly worse off now that Sri Lanka is a major supplier of chilled fish to the E.U. A comparison of the two periods 2001-2004 and 2007-2009 finds that in the former period, past imports of Lake Victoria fish had a positive impact on present imports, indicating that importers developed a preference for Lake Victoria fish during this time; in the latter period, this effect no longer existed. Most important is the change in the responsiveness of imports from Lake Victoria to real aggregate expenditures on imported fish in the E.U. The results show that a lesser share of aggregate expenditures is allocated to the Lake Victoria region and that the region now benefits less from an increase in aggregate expenditures.

Migratory responses to agricultural risk in Northern Nigeria

We investigate the extent in which northern Nigerian households engage in internal migration to insure against ex ante and ex post agricultural risk due to weather-related variability and shocks. We use data on the migration patterns of individuals over a 20-year period and temperature degree-days to identify agricultural risk. Controlling for ex ante and ex post risk, we find that households with higher ex ante risk are more likely to send migrants. Households facing hot shocks before the migrant's move tend to keep their male migrants in closer proximity. These findings suggest that households use migration as a risk management strategy in response to both ex ante and ex post risk, but that migration responses are gender-specific. These findings have implications not only for understanding the insurance motives of households, but also potential policy responses tied to climatic warming.

Impact of farmer field schools on agricultural productivity and poverty in East Africa

Farmer field schools (FFSs) are a popular education and extension approach worldwide. Such schools use experiential learning and a group approach to facilitate farmers in making decisions, solving problems, and learning new techniques. However, there is limited or conflicting evidence as to their effect on productivity and poverty, especially in East Africa. This study is unique in that it uses a longitudinal impact evaluation (difference in difference approach) with quasi-experimental methods (propensity score matching and covariate matching) together with qualitative approaches to provide rigorous evidence to policymakers and other stakeholders on an FFS project in Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda. The study provides evidence on participation in FFSs and on the effects of FFSs on various outcomes.

Alignment of poultry sector actors with avian influenza control in Kenya

Kenya has a high risk of being infected with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) because it (i) lies along the migratory bird routes, (ii) engages in formal and informal cross-border trade in live birds and other poultry products, (iii) lacks capacity to regulate the poultry industry trade and (iv) is well connected to the region and with the rest of the world through its air and road transport networks. The government developed a contingency plan for prevention and control of the disease in 2005 which describes a set of mitigation measures that could be implemented at various stages of the outbreak. The contingency plan identifies national and international agencies as well poultry value chain actors as being key players that would either deliver or implement HPAI control measures. It has not been established, however, whether these players would comply appropriately to ensure the successful implementation of the HPAI control measures. This is because actor willingness to comply depends fundamentally on the alignment of control measures with actor capacity to comply, their current practices, and incentives they face. This study (i) characterised control measures in terms of expected degree of compliance by actors in the poultry value chain and the agents responsible for implementing the measures, and (ii) identified actors who may be expected to prove to be compliance fail-points to successful implementation of control measures. Four HPAI control measures were studied: these are biosecurity, reporting, movement control, and culling and compensation.

Qualitative Release and Exposure Assessment on the risk of HPAI transmission between sector 4 farms and between sector 3 and sector 4 farms in Kenya

This study assessed the risk of transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) between backyard poultry (S4) farms and between S4 and semi-commercial (S3) farms in Kenya. It was designed to complement findings of a study that had been conducted in 2007 by the DVS and FAO to evaluate the risk of introduction of the disease into the country. It followed the OIE risk analysis framework where release, exposure and consequence assessments are done successively and their risk parameter estimates combined to obtain an overall risk estimate for a given pathway. Risk questions were formulated in a stakeholder workshop that was convened at ILRI in Nairobi on 2-3 October 2008.

Aflatoxin prevalence data collection: Sampling framework & methodology

Information is fragmented on the prevalence of aflatoxins, a variety of mycotoxin, in the maize value chain in Kenya and in the groundnut value chain in Mali. The purpose of this study is to generate a consistent database of aflatoxin prevalence along the maize and groundnut value chains through systematic sampling, and to identify critical points where intervention strategies are likely to have the greatest impact.

Strengthening innovation capacity of Nigerian agricultural research organizations

Strong agricultural research and development (R&D) is crucial for improving agricultural productivity and efficiency, which in turn both lead to agricultural development, food security, and poverty reduction. However, several studies have shown that in many developing countries, in particular in sub-Saharan Africa, there is persistent underinvestment in R&D and weak research capacity, both of which continue to undermine agricultural productivity and growth in these countries.

Investigating the role of poultry in livelihoods and the impact of avian flu on livelihoods outcomes in Africa: Evidence from Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, and Nigeria

In this paper we investigate the role of poultry in households' livelihoods portfolios and the impact of supply-and-demand shocks that may be caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) on households' various livelihoods outcomes in four Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. The study countries include Ethiopia and Kenya in East Africa and Ghana and Nigeria in West Africa. These countries represent a spectrum of SSA countries regarding disease status, means of disease spread, and the role of the poultry sector in the economy. By using nationally representative household-level secondary data and discrete choice methods (probit and zero-inflated negative binomial models), we profile the household, farm, and regional characteristics of those households that are most likely to keep poultry and those households that are most likely to be engaged in intensive poultry production (that is, to keep larger household flocks). We estimate the ex ante impact of HPAI outbreaks and scares/threats on livelihoods outcomes by using the propensity score matching approach. The results of this study generate valuable information regarding the role of poultry in the livelihoods of small-scale poultry-producing households and the livelihoods impacts of HPAI-induced supply-and-demand shocks. Such information is critical for the design of targeted, and hence effective, HPAI control and mitigation policies.

Implications of avian flu for economic development in Kenya

An overview of the poultry sector and status of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in Kenya: Background paper

Poultry keeping in Kenya plays a major role as a livelihood source, an income generating activity as well meeting other socio-cultural roles. Poultry production is, however, threatened by the emerging HPAI threat that has devastated other parts of the world. This study documented available information on the poultry sector. The objective was to identify knowledge gaps that HPAI research in Kenya should focus on. A thorough review of existing literature was done including searches over the internet. The study found that Kenya had about 37 million birds in 2006 of which 84.1% were free-ranging indigenous birds, 8.4% were layers, 5.7% were broilers while other poultry species accounted for 1.8%. About 65% of Kenyan households keep chickens; each household keeps about 12 chickens on average. Poultry are produced in four main production systems, which are labelled Sectors 1 - 4 according to the FAO/OIE classification. Sector 1 consists of the integrated industrial producers (big companies), Sector 2 is made up of hatcheries, and Sector 3 is dominated by smallholder semi-commercial farmers while Sector 4 constitutes the village or "backyard" (traditional) poultry production system. The September 2005 HPAI scare is estimated to have caused a loss of about Ksh 2.3 billion (US$40,000) mainly due to reduced demand for poultry products as consumers shunned away these products. Prices of poultry and poultry products declined due to the scare. For instance, the price of one broiler, indigenous chicken and spent layer declined by 15%, 26% and 29% during the period of the HPAI scare. The price of indigenous eggs fell by 7% while that of the commercial eggs decreased by 15%. Significant gaps in knowledge still remain. Based on these findings, the study recommends the following: * There is a need to conduct a poultry population census (possibly together with that of other livestock species) in order to update and validate existing data. * There is a need to create awareness of HPAI among producers and consumers of poultry products in order to reduce their ignorance on the disease transmission and therefore avert possible losses due to a HPAI scare. * Compensatory mechanisms should be instituted, possibly through poultry insurance schemes, in order to cushion farmers and businesses in the poultry sector from economic losses associated with a HPAI outbreak or scare of an outbreak. * The veterinary department should come up with clear guidelines on the appropriate control approaches for the disease (e.g. to vaccinate or not vaccinate). Research is also needed in the following areas: * Evaluation of the poultry sector value chains to identify "hot spots" for HPAI entry to aid in designing effective control/eradication strategies; * Evaluation of different marketing channels of poultry and poultry products with a view to identifying key actors (who are they, how many, what are their incentives, how are they organized, etc) in those channels and their level of awareness of HPAI and its potential threat; * Evaluation of different segments of consumers with a view to promoting consumer awareness of HPAI risk; * Evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of alternative HPAI control strategies in the wake of a potential outbreak; * Appropriate compensation mechanisms that are suitable for the structure of the poultry sector in Kenya; * Potential losses arising from a disease outbreak or scare; * Risk analysis as a component of early warning system in risk based surveillance strategy; and * Impact of the disease and the control measures on the livelihoods of the poor.

Mapping the likelihood of introduction and spread of HPAI Virus H5N1 in Africa, Ghana, Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria

The results of an analysis of the spatial distribution of disease risk and its visual presentation through risk maps allow for the design of targeted and therefore more cost-effective animal disease surveillance strategies. There are various methods by which disease risk maps can be generated. One of these is multicriteria decision modelling (MCDM) which is a knowledge-driven approach to the production of risk maps. As with all modelling work, it is important for the user of these outputs to be aware of the assumptions made in relation to the models and any potential sources of selection and information bias when interpreting the results of such analyses. The objective of this study was to describe the spatial variation in the likelihood of (i) introduction and (ii) spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) subtype H5N1 on a continental scale in Africa. This report describes the methods used to produce likelihood maps illustrating the likelihood of introduction and subsequent spread of HPAIV H5N1 at both the continental and country level (Kenya, Nigeria, Ethiopia and Ghana; targeted countries of the DfID project), and highlights limitations associated with the maps.

Exploring linkages between agriculture and HIV/AIDS: A multilevel study of the impact of agricultural consumption regimes on women’s vulnerability to HIV/AIDS in Kenya

The recognition that the HIV/AIDS epidemic is a major threat to sub Saharan Africa’s economic development has prompted researchers to focus on the economic impacts of the disease. In particular, given the importance of agriculture for livelihoods in sub Saharan Africa (SSA), researchers have investigated the impact of HIV/AIDS on agriculture. Relatively little research has focused on the role agriculture plays in fueling the spread of HIV/AIDS. This study addresses this gap in the literature and examines how agricultural contexts in Kenya influence women’s vulnerability to HIV/AIDS. The study defines vulnerability in terms of upstream factors, that is whether and through what pathways poverty puts people at greater risk of being exposed to the virus.

Private sector responses to public investments and policy reforms: The case of fertilizer and maize market development in Kenya

This paper documents the factors driving the impressive growth in fertilizer use and maize productivity in Kenya since the early 1990s up to 2007. The basic story is one of synergies between liberalization of input and maize markets and public investments in support of smallholder agriculture, leading to tangible private-sector investment in fertilizer retailing and maize marketing, which in turn has resulted in a 34 percent increase in smallholder fertilizer use per hectare of maize cultivated and an 18 percent increase in maize yields over the 1997–2007 period. There is also evidence of a reduction in maize marketing margins during this period. These developments have improved the welfare of rural and urban maize consumers, who constitute roughly 80 percent of Kenya’s population. While certain aspects of liberalization have also benefited maize-selling smallholder farmers, many other developments in the Kenyan agricultural sector have not. Events since 2007 call into question the sustainability of Kenya’s achievements in improving smallholders’ access to maize and fertilizer markets over the 1990–2007 period.

HIV and mobility in the Lake Victoria Basin agricultural sector: A literature review

The Lake Victoria region has the highest HIV prevalence in the East African Community, which comprises Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi. This region also has a significant concentration of commercial agricultural plantations, which rely on mobile workers, an extensive system of out-grower schemes, and linkages with neighboring communities and transportation routes. This paper reviews the relationships between the various components of the plantation system and the spread of HIV, which is a complex and dynamic process. There has been relatively little research on these dynamic interactions, and the relevant policies and programs are generally silent on mobility-induced vulnerability to HIV. As such, this review first examines how the conditions and structure of the migration process may increase HIV vulnerability for migrants, thereby illuminating key challenges. Second, the review considers what may be done to address these issues, particularly within the plantation system. A comprehensive response to HIV would require that the plantation companies engage in efforts against HIV/AIDS across its entire time line (that is, ranging from efforts to prevent infection to attempts to mitigate its full impact on both agricultural workers and the business as a whole). Despite the logic of this argument, we do not yet have strong financial evidence proving that companies should invest in a comprehensive strategy. This critical gap should be addressed. For example, pilot programs on select plantations could be used to show the cost-benefits of addressing HIV/AIDS through a well-designed set of interventions aimed at the different target groups.

Overview of qualitative risk assessments for the introduction and spread of HPAI H5N1 Virus

From 2006 to the present, 11 countries in Africa reported outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1: Egypt, Sudan, Djibouti, Niger, Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, and Cameroon. Other than Egypt, where the disease is endemic, the last cases of HPAI H5N1 in Africa reported to the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) occurred in Nigeria (June and July 2008) and Togo (September 2008). In Indonesia, the disease has become endemic since its introduction in 2004. Qualitative risk assessment is the most common type of assessment to guide routine decisionmaking, especially in data-scarce environments. It allows for the development of risk mitigation strategies and for the identification of data gaps, and provides useful recommendations for future research. A joint research team from the Royal Veterinary College (RVC) in London and International Livestock Research institute (ILRI) in Nairobi led five qualitative risk assessments in Ghana, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria and Indonesia between October 2008 and June 2009. The work was carried out by national collaborators: Paa Kobina Turkson (Ghana), Bewket Siraw and Hassen Chaka (Ethiopia), Dennis Onkundi (Kenya), Garba Maina Ahmed (Nigeria), and Syafrison Idris and Maria F. Palupi (Indonesia). In each of the five countries, a stakeholders workshop was held in October or November 2008. These workshops had three main objectives: to present the risk assessment objectives to the stakeholders; to define the risk questions of interest for each country; and to outline the risk pathways. Drawing on the workshop outcomes, the risk assessments (RAs) were then conducted from January to April 2009. Given the scarcity of data in these environments, input data for the models were collected by expert opinion elicitation, with key informants responding to questionnaires. The RA reports are currently being finalized.

Assessing the impact of an avian flu impact in Kenya

While some African countries have not yet experienced outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), they remain vulnerable, both in terms of susceptibility and potential economic losses. Kenya is one of these vulnerable countries. Its position along migratory bird routes and proximity to other high risk countries make Kenya particularly susceptible to a potential HPAI outbreak. The threat of avian flu has caused many households in Kenya to limit their consumption of poultry products and the Kenyan government has also banned poultry imports (Nyaga, 2007; Omiti and Okuthe, 2009). Thus, even without a confirmed outbreak, avian flu may undermine the poultry sector with adverse impacts on agricultural livelihoods.

European Union preferential trade agreements with developing countries and their impact on Colombian and Kenyan carnation exports to the United Kingdom

United Kingdom (UK) demand for carnations by exporting country was estimated using a production version of the Rotterdam model, and model estimates were used to assess the effects of EU preferential trade agreements on import demand. Of particular importance was how these agreements affected Colombian and Kenyan carnation exports to the UK, the second largest market for Colombian carnations and the largest market for Kenyan carnations. Results showed that Colombia benefited from preferential access to the UK more so than Kenya: the benefit to Colombia was due to both trade creation and diversion, whereas the benefit to Kenya was mostly due to trade diversion. Results further showed that the competition between Colombian and Kenyan carnations was insignificant, and there was no evidence that the preferences given to Colombia harmed Kenya or vice versa.

Mapping the likelihood of introduction and spread of HPAI in Africa and Indonesia using Multicriteria Decision Modelling

Spatial analysis of the distribution of disease risk and its visual presentation through risk maps can be used to inform the design of animal disease surveillance resulting in more cost-effective strategies. It is suitable for application in the context of HPAI H5N1 in Africa and Indonesia where the disease has already been introduced and is endemic in some areas.; Two main approaches can be used to produce risk maps:; A data-driven approach, which uses actual disease data to identify risk factors that allow the absolute risk of disease occurrence in an area to be determined;; A knowledge-driven approach, which uses knowledge about the epidemiology of the disease to identify areas at higher or lower risk of disease occurrence relative to the surrounding areas.; Both approaches are based on available evidence. However, when empirical data about the distribution of the disease are not readily available or when data are only available on some aspects of the epidemiology of a multi-factorial disease, knowledge-driven approaches can be used to determine those areas in which a specific disease is most likely to occur using models such as multicriteria decision modelling (MCDM) (Clements et al. 2006, Pfeiffer et al. 2008).; In contrast to data-driven modelling, MCDM does not generate estimates of absolute risk. Instead, MCDM generates maps that identify areas with a higher or lower likelihood of an event of interest occurring relative to surrounding areas on the same map. A study described in more detail in EDRS-AIA risk mapping documents (2009) was conducted using an MCDM approach to describe the spatial variation in the likelihood of: introduction and spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus HPAI H5N1 in Africa, and spread of HPAI H5N1 in Indonesia.; This brief summarizes the methodology used to produce the maps for continental Africa and Indonesia, and the findings. In addition to the three maps in this brief, maps for other African countries were produced and are presented in the report, Mapping the Likelihood of Introduction and Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus H5N1 in Africa, Ghana, Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria using Multicriteria Decision Modelling (Stevens et al. 2009); and maps for Indonesia can be found in Mapping the Risk of Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 in Indonesia using Multicriteria Decision Modelling (de Glanville et al. 2009). These reports also include a more detailed description of the methodology used to produce the maps.

Promoting fertilizer use in Africa: current issues and empirical evidence from Malawi, Zambia, and Kenya

Plant genetic resources for agriculture, plant breeding, and biotechnology: Experiences from Cameroon, Kenya, the Philippines, and Venezuela

Local farming communities throughout the world face binding productivity constraints, diverse nutritional needs, environmental concerns, and significant economic and financial pressures. Developing countries address these challenges in different ways, including public and private sector investments in plant breeding and other modern tools for genetic crop improvement. In order to measure the impact of any technology and prioritize investments, we must assess the relevant resources, human capacity, clusters, networks and linkages, as well as the institutions performing technological research and development, and the rate of farmer adoption. However, such measures have not been recently assessed, in part due to the lack of complete standardized information on public plant breeding and biotechnology research in developing countries. To tackle this void, the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO), in consultation with the International Food Policy Institute (IFPRI) and other organizations, designed a plant breeding and biotechnology capacity survey for implementation by FAO consultants in 100 developing countries. IFPRI, in collaboration with FAO and national experts contracted by FAO to complete in-country surveys, identified and analyzed plant breeding and biotechnology programs in four developing countries: Cameroon, Kenya, the Philippines, and Venezuela. Here, we use an innovation systems framework to examine the investments in human and financial resources and the distribution of resources among the different programs, as well as the capacity and policy development for agricultural research in the four selected countries. Based on our findings, we present recommendations to help sustain and increase the efficiency of publicly- and privately-funded plant breeding programs, while maximizing the use of genetic resources and developing opportunities for GM crop production. Policy makers, private sector breeders, and other stakeholders can use this information to prioritize investments, consider product advancement, and assess the relative magnitude of the potential risks and benefits of their investments.

The social impact of cash transfers: a study of the impact of cash transfers on social networks of Kenyan households participating in cash transfer programs"

This study explores one aspect of the broader issues of social networks. It is specifically concerned with whether a minimal cash grant selectively provided to some extremely poor households as part of a social safety network programme may impact the social networks of receiving families. An underlying concern is that assistance to the most vulnerable is constructive and does not undermine already fragile family coping systems. To explore the issue of social networks and cash transfers, a qualitative study was carried out in Kenya in November 2007. Interviews were conducted with 6 recipient families of the Kenya Government Cash Transfer Programme (CTP)—3 families in an urban setting and 3 in a rural setting, This study attempted to answer the question, do cash transfers enhance or disrupt informal social networks?

Investment opportunities for livestock in the north eastern province of Kenya:: A synthesis of existing knowledge

Pastoralism is the dominant livelihood activity in the North Eastern Province (NEP) of Kenya. It is supplemented only by a limited amount of agriculture along the rivers. The province faces various developmental challenges including chronic poverty and food insecurity, low human capital and poor health standards, high vulnerability to climate change, poor infrastructure, insecurity and low crop and livestock productivity. This study synthesises existing knowledge and provides recommendations on livestock investments to increase incomes, create employment and reduce food insecurity in the province. It examines investment opportunities in livestock and presents scenarios that meet the objectives of Kenya’s 2030 vision.

Linking nutritional support with treatment of people living with HIV: Lessons being learned in Kenya

While clinical care providers, program managers and other stakeholders increasingly recognize the critical importance of nutrition for the treatment of HIV and AIDS, interventions that link nutritional support to treatment are relatively new. The Academic Model for Prevention and Treatment of HIV/AIDS (AMPATH) initiated one such intervention in 2002 in western Kenya with a large scale-expansion currently underway with the support of World Food Programme commodity donations, and fresh foods grown on AMPATH production farms.

The role of information networks along the poultry value chain

Mapping the flow of information along the poultry value chain is crucial for the identification of the actors to whom highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) risks should be communicated. Each actor in the poultry sector, whether private and public, or formal or informal, has particular roles in the risk-communication process. Network mapping exercises help to identify the different actors involved in the poultry value chain, and to understand their roles, linkages, and influence in communicating disease risk information. Consequently, IFPRI and ILRI conducted network mapping exercises with participants of multistakeholder workshops held in Ghana, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria.; The following questions were discussed:; What formal, informal, private, and public actors are involved in the live poultry value chain?; What are the flows of goods between various actors?; How does communication on disease information flow in the value chain?; Who in the value chain is influential in the communication of information about HPAI?; What should be improved to make the value chain more resilient against the effects of HPAI and HPAI scare?; Where and how can project findings help inform decisionmaking in the value chain?; This brief highlights and summarizes the main findings of these network maps (Net-Maps). The Net-Maps were drawn based on the participants’ expert opinions as well as their experience with past interventions.

The role of information networks in communicating and responding to HPAI outbreaks

In many developing countries, information regarding the occurrence of a disease outbreak must travel through a network of individuals and institutions before it reaches the central government. Likewise, the response must travel back through these networks. Any break in these networks could delay the flow of information and action in either direction, potentially delaying the response and raising the risk of a wider outbreak. It is therefore important to identify the flow of information for disease reporting among institutions, and also to identify how influential these institutions are in terms of their impact on information flow and response to disease occurrence. Thus, researchers from IFPRI and ILRI conducted network mapping exercises with participating stakeholders from governmental agencies, the private sector, research institutions, and farmer and trader organizations during the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) inception workshops held separately in Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, and Nigeria to answer the following questions: How does information about a suspected outbreak of avian influenza on the farm or market level reach the respective authorities? How and through which actors is the response to a confirmed outbreak implemented on the ground? In all of these countries, network maps (or Net-Maps) were prepared indicating the actors involved, their different kinds of linkages, and the influence that these actors have on making sure that the information about suspected outbreaks on the farm or market level reaches the national authorities and that an appropriate and timely response is implemented. The Net-Maps were based on experience with past interventions from the participants as well as their expert opinions. The Net-Maps also helped identify bottlenecks in communication and response that need further attention. This brief draws out the main findings from the Net-Maps of the study countries, including the potential breakpoints in the disease reporting and response networks.

Collective action and property rights for poverty reduction: Lessons from a global research project

To examine the role of the institutions of collective action and property rights on poverty reduction, the Systemwide Program on Collective Action and Property Rights (CAPRi) of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) undertook a global research project with study sites in Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Indonesia, India, Cambodia, and the Philippines. The main goal of the project was to contribute to poverty-reduction efforts by identifying effective policies and practices that enhance the ways that collective action and property rights are used to build secure assets and income streams for and by the poor. The project intended to provide policymakers, NGOs, and community groups with knowledge of the factors that strengthen the rights of the poor to land and water resources and lead to more effective collective action by the poor. Four CGIAR centers and two German universities conducted empirical research on the role of collective action and property rights for disadvantaged groups. The briefs in this set represent the case studies that were part of the project. The case studies rely on a variety of research methods, including qualitative and quantitative approaches, participatory action research, and experimental games. They also cover a variety of contexts within Africa and Asia, which will allow policymakers, researchers, and practitioners to further examine what constitutes poverty and affects the welfare of the poor between and within countries, and to draw comparisons.

Trade protection and tax evasion: Evidence from Kenya, Mauritius, and Nigeria

We examine the effect of trade protection rates on evasion in three African countries: Kenya, Mauritius, and Nigeria. In capturing the effect of trade protection on tariff evasion, we use a much improved measure of trade protection from MacMAP 2001 and 2004. For two of these countries, the MacMAP data set allows the novelty of using variation in trade protection across product, time, and trading partners, leading to significantly refined estimates of evasion elasticity relative to existing studies on tariff evasion. We find a positive elasticity of evasion with respect to tariffs in all three countries. Further, our results match the rankings of countries in terms of institutional quality. Greater responsiveness of evasion to the level of tariffs is established in Nigeria (comparatively weak institutional quality) vis-à-vis Kenya, and in Kenya vis-à-vis Mauritius (comparatively good institutional quality). This pattern is preserved even when focusing on the same set of trading partners and the same set of imported products for the three countries. This result is robust to controlling for protection on related products (that create incentives/opportunities for evasion) and also for degree of differentiation of the product in question (characteristics that determine the ease of detection of evasion).

Supply of pigeonpea genetic resources in local markets of Eastern Kenya

Smallholder producers in marginal and semiarid areas of eastern Kenya have not benefited greatly from research investments made in improvement of crops grown in such environments (sorghum, millet, and legumes, including pigeonpea) either by the international community or the national agricultural research system because of poorly developed seed systems. However, informal and local market purchases are the major sources of seed for non-maize cereals and legumes. In the absence of any formalized seed system for dryland crops, more and more farmers rely on local markets to supply seed during normal and disaster periods. We determined the factors affecting the quantities of pigeonpea traded by vendors during the 2006 short-rains season using simple OLS estimation. We found that the participation of traders and farmers was higher and traded larger quantities of pigeonpea in weekly markets located in areas where seed-based intervention programs in place than in non-intervention areas. Also agro-ecologically, markets located in slightly wetter regions offered more varieties and handled higher sales compared with marketsheds in dry regions. Among the traders, the grain traders dominated through their sheer volume of sales, higher investment, and storage capacity in these markets though the distinction between seeds and grains was poor. Of the vendor characteristics, young, educated vendors traded higher quantities of pigeonpea during the planting season. The amount of time spent selling by different vendors in the village fairs also had a significant influence on the pigeonpea quantity traded. Certain market infrastructure variables such as distance to the local markets and the access to information sources (mobile phones) also significantly influenced the amount of pigeonpea sold among vendors in these markets. The existing pigeonpea value chain in local markets could be improved further, provided proper synergies exist between different actors in the system. This would enhance local crop diversity levels as well as improve access to quality plant materials for farming communities in the marginal environments of eastern Kenya.

On-site and off-Site long-term economic impacts of soil fertility management practices: The case of maize-based cropping systems in Kenya

This article analyzes the on-site and off-site economic impacts of various sustainable land management (SLM) practices in Kenya. Long-term trial data are used to establish the relationship between SLM practices and maize yield. The analysis of on-site effects focuses on the profitability of maize production at the farm level, while the examined off-site effects include carbon sequestration and siltation from maize farms, which increase the cost of potable water production. The major contribution of this study is the use of long-term experimental data to estimate the impacts of land management practices on crop yield and consider their off-site benefits and costs. The results of this study show that soil and water conservation (SWC) structures reinforced with leguminous plants are more profitable when the plants are used as fodder, as opposed to situations in which only SWC structures are used. SWC structures reinforced with vegetation had lower maintenance costs, whereas those that were not reinforced with leguminous trees were not profitable over the long-term period. These results suggest that complementary and multipurpose SWC practices are more likely to be adopted compared to non-complementary and/or single-purpose practices. Thus, SWC practices should be promoted as a package of complementary technologies. If it is not feasible to promote a mix of complementary enterprises, high value crops are likely to make SLM practices more profitable. In areas where SLM practices are not profitable, promotion of alternative livelihoods is necessary. Adoption of SLM also provides global environmental services worth 10% of the net present value of the SLM practices over the 50-year period addressed in the present study Finally, the results of this analysis suggest that farmers who offer significant environmental services should be compensated for their efforts.

Gender, wealth, and participation in community groups in Meru Central District, Kenya

TA mixed-methods, multiple-stage approach was used to obtain data on how gender and wealth affected participation in community groups in Meru, Kenya, and how men and women farmers obtain and diffuse agricultural information. Research techniques included participant observation, documentary analysis, semi-structured interviews, social mapping, group timelines, and structured questionnaires. Dairy-goat farmer groups were interviewed for the study. Qualitative data provided baseline information, and helped in the formulation of research questions. Quantitative data were analyzed using contingency tables, descriptive statistics, correlations, tests of significance, and regression. Factors that affected participation in different types of groups included household composition, age, and gender. Women made up 59 percent of the dairy-goat group (DGG) members, with the DGG project encouraging women’s participation. Women made up 76 percent of DGG treasurer positions; 43 percent of secretary positions, and 30 percent of chairperson positions. Gender also influenced participation in clan groups, water groups, and merry-go-round (savings and loans) groups. Wealth did not appear to have a significant effect on participation in community groups. Extension was the most important information source for both men and women farmers. However, church and indigenous knowledge (passed on from parents) seemed more important to women. Both men and women mentioned other farmers, groups, and “baraza” (public meetings used to make announcements and diffuse information) as important information sources, but they rated them at different levels of importance. Men were diffusing information to greater numbers of people than women, although men and women diffused to similar sources. This study shows that because men and women traditionally participate in different types of groups and receive agricultural information from different sources, development agencies must target different types of groups and institutions to reach men, women, or poor farmers. Mechanisms should be developed to include women, the poor, and other targeted groups in community associations that provide market and other income-earning opportunities.

Seed provision and dryland crops in the semiarid regions of Eastern Kenya

Over the last two decades, several seed-related programs have been initiated in eastern Kenya to improve farmers’ access to quality seeds of dryland cereals and legumes. They are provided during two occasions, regular and emergency times. But very often, the formal supply mechanisms limit their role in provision of seeds other than maize. In the absence of any formalized systems of seed provision for other dryland crops, such as sorghum and pigeon pea, farmers have preferred local markets for their seed needs, especially during distress periods. Here we have examined the role of various seed-intervention programs in eastern Kenya, along with the strengths and weaknesses of each program. We have also underscored the importance of local markets and their actors in meeting the needs for non-maize and bean seeds in these marginal environments. For this purpose, detailed, informal interviews were conducted during October–December 2005 with all the stakeholders, namely public and private institutions and vendors in eight major local markets in eastern Kenya. The results of the study call for synergies between existing formal (private, public, and other development initiative) systems and informal (local market) seed systems to enhance crop yields and the diversity of dryland cereals and legumes through effective seed-supply interventions.

Rural investment to accelerate growth and poverty reduction in Kenya

Kenya’s economy is relatively diverse, with both agricultural and industrial potential. However, the economy has performed poorly over the last decade, and poverty and inequality have risen. This paper examines the impact of alternative growth paths and rural investments on poverty using an economy-wide model. It finds that if Kenya continues along its current growth path, its economy will have to grow by more than 10 percent per year over the coming decade to meet the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of halving poverty by 2015. Therefore, Kenya must search for alternative sources of poverty-reducing growth. The results of the model indicate that poverty is unlikely to decline significantly without an acceleration of agricultural growth. Growth in agriculture is found to benefit both urban and rural households, whereas industry-led growth benefits a smaller segment of the urban population, thus exacerbating inequality. Kenya’s current Economic Recovery Strategy, however, is not optimistic about agriculture’s growth potential, focusing more heavily on industry-led growth. Therefore, as Kenya prepares its new national strategy, the country should place greater emphasis on and direct resources toward accelerating agricultural growth. In assessing the impact of rural investments on growth and poverty, the paper finds that increasing agricultural spending to meet the 10 percent target set by the Maputo Declaration would lift an additional 1.5 million people above the poverty line by 2015. Specific agricultural investments have higher returns in different parts of the country, however. Irrigation favors the lowlands and the poorest segment of the population, while research and extension (R&E) favors the midlands and highlands. Investment in R&E is also found to have the highest returns in both growth and poverty reduction. However, increasing agricultural spending to 10 percent of total spending is insufficient to meet either the MDG or the 6 percent agricultural growth target of the Comprehensive African Agriculture Development Program, which Kenya has recently adopted. . Achieving this target requires nonagricultural investments, such as in roads and market development. Building rural roads and reducing agricultural transaction costs significantly reduces poverty and encourages growth beyond rural areas. While it is necessary to increase spending on agriculture, the fiscal burden of an agricultural strategy can be greatly reduced by improving investment efficiency.