Publications

Social safety nets for a nutrition-sensitive food system in South Asia: Lessons from India

Synopsis: Unlocking agricultural efficiency: A stochastic frontier analysis of smallholder farmers in Rwanda

This study assesses the technical efficiency of smallholder farmers in Rwanda, with a focus on maximizing crop output value and identifying the socioeconomic drivers that shape technical efficiency.

Harvesting change: The impact of climate change on Africa’s agriFood systems

Africa is one of the most exposed continents to climate change. While global temperature has risen by 0.2°C per decade since 1991, in Africa the rate is faster, reaching 0.3°C (WMO 2022). Yet Africa contributes only modestly to climate change. Indeed, the continent emits 7 times less greenhouse gas compared to Europe and 15 times compared to North America (IPCC, 2023). In addition to rising temperatures, climate change affects Africa through several channels, including an increase in ocean levels, variations in precipitations (droughts and heavy rains), plant pests and animal diseases. Climate change is also expected to contribute to a significant reduction in arable land in the continent (IPCC, 2023). The new CAADP strategy and action plan for 2026-2035 recognizes that Africa is the hardest hit by climate change and that the phenomenon is one of the major threats to Africa’s agricultural systems and food security in the coming years.

All of these changes will affect agricultural production, a major challenge for Africa, as African economies and livelihoods remain heavily dependent on agriculture. Agriculture still represents 16% of Africa GDP with contributions ranging from 3% in Southern Africa to 25% in the eastern part of the continent. Due to the low level of labor productivity in agriculture, the sector’s contributions to total employment are higher than those of other sectors. By inducing structural changes in agricultural production, climate change will also affect trade flows by shifting comparative advantages between and within continents. Prices will also be affected. This Policy Brief i shows how Africa’s agricultural production and trade patterns are altered by climate change. It highlights the large impacts of climate change on agricultural production, reinforcing results from other work. It shows that the impacts on prices compound the production impacts on African economies and people given many countries in the region are net importers. However, the work also shows that there are substantial differences across the region in the size of the impacts.

Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor 2025

The 2025 Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor (AATM) investigates critical topics related to Africa’s trade in agricultural products. As in previous editions of the report, we developed a database that corrects discrepancies in official trade flow values, as reported by importing and exporting countries; this database serves as the basis for analyzing Africa’s international, domestic, and regional trade. Following the 2024 report’s examination of the nexus between climate change and the environment, this year’s report focuses on food security and its linkage with global and intra-African trade.

Public expenditure on agriculture, youth out-migration, and engagement in agriculture? Evidence from Nigeria

Theoretical models posit that migration decisions are driven by differences in economic opportunities across locations, including across rural and urban areas, which implies that increased rural investment can curb rural-urban migration and encourage engagement in agriculture. However, direct empirical evidence of this remains scant, especially on youth migration in Africa. We fill this knowledge gap by examining the effect of temporal changes in public expenditures for the agriculture sector (PEA) on rural youth’s migration and engagement in rural economies in Nigeria. We combine unique subnational data that capture PEA’s spatiotemporal variations and individual level youth data and estimate two-way fixed effects models. We find that a 1 percentage point increase (equivalent to a 25 percent increase) in the share of PEA, is associated with up to 0.9 percentage points reduction in youth’s out-migration. Conversely, an increase in PEA leads to increased youth engagement in farm activities. Our results suggest that public investments in rural economies can mitigate youth out-migration from rural areas. These results have important implications for informing youth and migration policies, especially in the context of Africa, often characterized by its youth bulge and the exodus of youth from rural areas because of perceived lack of economic opportunities.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: October 2025

Sudan’s markets in October 2025 showed relative stability with several commodities experiencing improved availability and quality. Wheat and wheat flour prices declined, while sorghum, millet, vegetables, lentils, meat, oilseeds, and sugar showed mixed but generally stable trends. Fuel prices fell early in the month before stabilizing, and fertilizer prices remained steady with better availability.

Regional disparities persisted, with Darfur, Kordofan, and parts of Blue Nile continuing to record the highest prices for many goods due to conflict, transport disruptions, and liquidity constraints. Supply chain problems increased compared with September, driven by security concerns, high transport costs, exchange rate pressures, and limited cash access. Most merchants reported no major challenges related to storage, power, or hiring workers, although market safety concerns rose slightly, especially in North Darfur.

Tax compliance increased at the federal level but remained highest at state and locality levels. Despite ongoing challenges, merchants continued to show resilience: over half plan to maintain current trade levels, nearly one-third expect to expand, and only small shares intend to reduce trade, change commodities, or relocate, although uncertainty increased modestly.

Implications of increased urbanization and consumer awareness on future food supplies in Tanzania

Tanzania’s food system faces increasing pressure from rapid urbanization, population growth, and shifting consumer preferences toward more nutritious and diverse diets. This study analyzes how these macro trends will affect national food supply needs by 2050 and identifies key policy entry points to ensure an efficient, sustainable, and equitable food system transformation.

Using census data (2012–2022) and the National Panel Survey (2020/21), combined with two international healthy diet benchmarks – the EAT-Lancet Reference Diet (ELRD) and the Hypothetical Micronutrient Adequate Diet (HMAD) – the report projects the required food supply volumes to provide all Tanzanians with healthy diets by 2050.

Tanzania’s population is projected to more than double, from 59.8 million in 2020/21 to 138.1 million by 2050, with the share of urban residents rising from 34.5% to 55.4%. This demographic shift implies that a relatively smaller rural workforce will need to feed a much larger and more urban population, requiring higher productivity and stronger rural-urban linkages.

Current diets in Tanzania are heavily dominated by cereals and sugar products and contain too few fruits, dairy products, and eggs (according to both healthy diet references) combined with insufficient amounts of vegetables (according to ELRD) as well as meat and fish products (according to HMAD). To assure a heathy diet for all by 2050, the supplies and consumption of food from these food groups must expand substantially. This not only requires that total annual food supplies increase from 24 million tons to 52 million tons (under ELRD) or 62 million tons (under HMAD), but certainly also that its composition change dramatically: vegetables by roughly 3 times of current supply; oils by 4 times; fruits by 5 times; dairy by 8 times; eggs by 10 times (under ELRD) and 37 times (under HMAD), and meat and fish by 4 and 8 times (under HMAD), respectively. In contrast, cereal and sugar production can remain stable or even decrease slightly without compromising nutritional adequacy.

Meeting these targets requires significant productivity gains. For key commodities such as milk, oranges, sunflower oil, tomatoes, and beans, yield improvements of 2-10 times current levels are needed, though still within feasible global productivity frontiers. Addressing post-harvest losses (PHL) and expanding processing, cold storage, and urban agriculture are possibly also critical avenues to reduce waste and improve food availability. From an environmental viewpoint, the study urges the adoption of sustainable intensification practices and climate-smart livestock management, with emphasis on reducing emissions per unit of output, diversifying protein sources toward fish and poultry, and improving logistics and market inclusion for smallholders.

In policy terms, the report highlights alignment between its findings and Tanzania’s Agriculture Master Plan (2024), noting that 12 of the 20 government-prioritized commodities (e.g., banana, avocado, tomatoes, sunflower, beans, and dairy) are also essential for future healthy diets. However, important food items such as eggs, onions, leafy vegetables, mangoes, and oranges remain underemphasized and deserve greater policy focus. The agenda on PHL, though formally acknowledged, is also inadequately mainstreamed into Tanzania’s broader agricultural policy framework.

In conclusion, achieving healthy diets for all Tanzanians by 2050 will require, in addition to raising nutrition awareness and improving economic affordability among the population:
• A more than doubling of total food supplies with major shifts toward nutrient-rich foods,
• Substantial agricultural productivity and efficiency gains,
• A stronger emphasis on reducing PHL and strengthening urban food systems, and
• A coordinated policy focus on nutrition-sensitive and environmentally sustainable production.

Water insecurity in Sri Lanka, 2024-2025: Evidence from the 2024-2025 BRIGHT survey

We assess water insecurity in Sri Lanka using the BRIGHT Integrated Household Survey data for 2024-2025.
Key Findings
• Compared to the 2016 DHS data, the 2024 BRIGHT results show moderate improvements in access to improved drinking water sources. Estate sector households show the greatest relative improvement, with the share using improved water sources increasing by approximately five percentage points. This shift is driven primarily by a 15-percentage-point rise in the use of protected wells, although nearly half (49%) of estate households continue to rely on rivers, springs, or tank water.
• Most households in Sri Lanka report few insecurity experiences, and are therefore mostly water secure, with 90% not experiencing water insecurity.
• Differences between groups are subtle and occur mainly between marginal and low levels of water security, rather than between fully secure and insecure households.
• 68% of estate households (households on plantations), experienced at least water insecurity experience compared to only 28% of urban households and 33% of rural households.
• Households in dry agroecological zones face slightly higher risks water insecurity (11%) com-pared to 9% of in both intermediate and wet zones.
• Poverty is a key predictor of water insecurity. The poorest households are 6.8 times more likely to experience extreme water insecurity than the richest households.
• Sri Lanka has lower levels of water insecurity than most other lower-middle income countries but needs to address poor water security in populations left behind. Improving water security in estate areas and in the dry zone should be national water security priorities

Conflict and agricultural inputs: Impacts on maize yields in Nigeria

While standard agronomic recommendations advocate for increased application of inorganic fertilizer to boost maize yields across sub-Saharan Africa, there is limited understanding of how violent conflict influences smallholder farmers’ fertilizer demand, yield responses, and the overall profitability of fertilizer use. This study addresses this gap by analyzing how exposure to conflict affects input use decisions and the economic returns to fertilizer among maize farmers in Nigeria. Using detailed household-level data and spatially referenced conflict events, we estimate maize yield response functions with respect to nitrogen application and assess the profitability of fertilizer under varying levels of conflict exposure. Our findings reveal three key results. First, the marginal physical product (MPP) of nitrogen is low across the study sample, indicating limited agronomic responsiveness. Second, conflict exposure significantly reduces the likelihood and intensity of fertilizer use, suggesting that insecurity constrains both input access and willingness to invest. Third, conflict lowers the MPP of nitrogen even further, thereby reducing the marginal value-cost ratio (MVCR) and undermining the profitability of fertilizer use. These results highlight the importance of considering conflict as a key external factor that distorts input-output relationships in agricultural production. Insecurity not only affects access to inputs through higher prices and disrupted supply chains, but also alters expected returns, making fertilizer investments less attractive for risk-averse farmers. Recognizing the effects of conflict on fertilizer use and yield response is essential for designing more effective input subsidy programs, targeting strategies, and resilience-building interventions in fragile agricultural systems.

2023 Social Accounting Matrix for Kenya: A Nexus Project SAM

The 2023 Kenya Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

Food systems in conflict-prone and climate-affected areas of Northern Nigeria: Humanitarian and development challenges

Protracted conflict and climate shocks have profoundly disrupted food systems in northern Nigeria, yet little empirical evidence exists on how these shocks shape the functioning of the region’s food system (production, transportation, value addition, and trade). This study addresses this evidence gap by combining GIS-based mapping, cost structure analysis, and investment opportunities in food production, transportation, processing, and trade in key staple commodities across conflict-prone and climate-affected areas of northern Nigeria and connected market hubs. The analysis quantifies cost structures for key food supply chain actors, identifies systemic food system inefficiencies driven by conflict and climate factors, and examines how these factors undermine both commercial and humanitarian food flows. By integrating commodity-specific diagnostics with stakeholder perspectives, the study offers an evidence-based rationale for prioritizing interventions in conflict contexts. Two investment cases—on-farm storage and localized wheat milling—illustrate how targeted actions can reduce losses, enhance resilience, and create co-benefits for humanitarian operations and market recovery. By combining food-flow maps and cost structures for multiple actors along the food supply chain in a high-risk environment, and by demonstrating simplified approaches to linking empirical diagnostics with practical investment strategies, the study’s findings contribute to the literature on the functioning of food systems in conflict-prone and climate-affected contexts. In addition, the findings provide evidence to support policy changes, interventions, and investment decisions aimed at transforming food systems and addressing structural failures, while enhancing the efficacy of short-term humanitarian interventions. They also address the underlying causes of chronic food insecurity and support economic recovery in the region.

Mapping the design and implementation of seed sector regulation: The case of Rwanda

Rwanda’s seed sector is changing, with clear signs of a move towards greater responsiveness to market actors and forces and new investments in the production and distribution of improved varieties and quality seed to farmers. This study examines how the country’s legal and regulatory systems support—or constrain—the development and delivery of improved varieties and quality seed in light of these changes. Using a Regulatory Systems Mapping (RSM) approach, the study assesses four core areas of Rwanda’s seed sector: variety registration and release, early generation seed (EGS) production and distribution, seed quality assurance, and seed trade. The analysis integrates stakeholder perspectives from across the public and private sectors, highlighting critical implementation bottlenecks, institutional coordination gaps, and areas where laws diverge from practice. Findings show that while Rwanda has made significant strides in advancing a market-oriented vision for its seed sector and aligning with regional frameworks such as the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), systemic issues persist, including limited clarity on appeals processes, underdeveloped quality control infrastructure, and insufficient support for private sector breeding and farmer-based enterprises. The study offers targeted, time-bound recommendations for improving regulatory effectiveness, promoting inclusive participation (especially by women and farmer groups), and operationalizing flexibilities that suit Rwanda’s seed sector. By focusing on both regulatory design and implementation realities, this work aims to support ongoing policy reform and investment efforts in Rwanda’s seed sector.

Gender, nutrition-sensitive agricultural interventions, and resilience: Evidence from rural Bangladesh

We assess whether a gender- and nutrition-sensitive agricultural interventions, fielded in rural Bangladesh, aimed at improving food production diversity enhanced resilience and whether impacts persisted post-intervention. Four years post-program, treatment arms that included both agriculture and nutrition training reduced the likelihood that households undertook more severe forms of coping strategies during the Covid-19 pandemic. There were persistent improvements in household consumption and diet quality; impacts were largest for poor but not the poorest households in our sample. Underlying these results were the long-term beneficial impacts on women’s agricultural knowledge, agency, and increased engagement in agricultural activities.

Economywide assessment of CSA interventions in building resilient agri-food systems in Rwanda

Due to its structural features, the Rwanda’s agri-food system is extremely vulnerable to the risks of climate variability. To accelerate and sustain growth in the food system, increase its resilience to shocks, and improve food security, the Rwandan government incorporated a list of climate-smart agricultural interventions into its updated Fifth Strategic Plan for Agricultural Transformation (PSTA-5) program, with ambitious, explicit targets. This paper assesses the impacts of these CSA interventions on Rwanda’s agri-food system, both with and without climate change, using historical declines in yield within agriculture as a proxy. Results show that modeled CSA practices during the PSTA-5 period (2024/25-2028/29) increase agricultural and overall GDP growth by 4.2 and 1.3 percentage points by the end of the plan period, respectively, with a long-term growth impact that stretches well beyond the plan period mainly owing to the persistent effects of irrigation and terracing. Cumulative agricultural GDP (2024/25-2028/29) would be 2.7 percent higher than the baseline outcome of no such CSA investments. We also find stronger household level effects, mainly in rural areas. Furthermore, a recurrent 1-in-5-year magnitude of climatic shock in Rwanda can cause substantial reductions in agricultural (-7.6 percent) and overall (-2.7 percent) GDP during the PSTA-5 period. The CSA interventions are impactful in minimizing the effects of climate change on the Rwandan economy.

Can digital cash transfers serve those in active conflict? Evidence from a randomized intervention in Sudan

This paper evaluates the impact of digital transfers on the well-being of households grappling with active conflict in Sudan. Considering the case of Sudan, where active conflict and funding gaps continue to hamper the delivery of humanitarian services, we aim to address the following questions: (i) Can digital cash transfers improve food and nutrition security outcomes of beneficiaries in conflict-affected settings?; (ii) Can digital transfers to an other-wise inaccessible population improve subjective well-being, mental health, and stress in the face of recurrent conflicts?; and (iii) Who benefits more from digital transfers, and do the impacts of digital transfers vary depending on the size of transfers or socioeconomic characteristics of households? To address these questions, we design a randomized controlled trial (RCT) involving digital transfers of different sizes to randomly selected urban households in Sudan. Digital transfers reached nearly all targeted beneficiaries, with about a quarter of households receiving them through their friends and relatives and hence incurring some transaction fees. Overall, digital transfers mitigated deterioration in food insecurity (by 7-8 percentage points) and improved subjective well-being and mental health. Interestingly, we find that the digital transfers are more beneficial (impactful) for those grappling with active conflict. Digital transfers also appear to be less effective for poorer households and households of a larger size. These findings highlight the potential of digital transfers to support those grappling with armed conflict.

The changing demographics in Nigeria’s food systems and implications for future youth engagement

Food systems (FS) are critically important for youth employment in sub-Saharan Africa. FS must grow rapidly to guarantee food and nutrition security for growing populations, provide the quantity and quality of food demanded by increased urbanization and income, and to complement technological changes in other sectors. Expansion of nonfarm components of FS also reinforces efforts to transition out of agriculture. The impact of these factors, their inevitability and amenability to policy interventions, and the extent of FS transformation needed differ across countries. Future FS also face several emerging challenges. Employment and job creation are among the areas significantly affected by FS transformation. Demographic changes that accompany expanding FS employment are also critical for gender equity and youth inclusion. The extent, speed, and complementarity of the FS transformation and increased employment also vary across countries. However, few systems are currently in place to monitor the extent of FS transformation or its interactions with other aspects of the economy.

This study explores the evolution of employment in Nigeria’s FS over the past two decades, focusing on youth and gender inclusion amid broader demographic, economic, and policy shifts. As Africa’s most populous country, Nigeria is experiencing all the factors that typically shape FS and labor markets. With the working-age population growing by nearly 90 percent between 2000 and 2023 and youth unemployment remaining high, the agrifood system (AFS) presents both a challenge and an opportunity for inclusive economic transformation.

The paper begins by situating FS as critical to Nigeria’s economy, highlighting their contributions to GDP and employment. Using national living standards survey data, it examines structural changes in employment, particularly the shift away from on-farm agricultural work toward nonfarm segments such as food processing, trade, and services. Between 2003 and 2022, agriculture’s share in total employment fell from 58 percent to 35 percent, while nonfarm AFS employment grew from 12 percent to 33 percent. Women and youth have been central to this shift, with women’s participation in nonfarm AFS increasing by 190 percent and youth participation growing by over 300 percent—growth was especially faster in trade and food manufacturing.

The analysis links these labor trends to key drivers such as economic growth, policy reforms, urbanization, and conflict. While Nigeria’s economy nearly tripled between 2000 and 2023 and poverty declined, economic gains have been uneven and fragile, particularly in the northern regions affected by insecurity. Government efforts—including the Agricultural Promotion Policy (2016-2020), National Agricultural Technology and Innovation Policy (2022-2027), and the creation of the Presidential Food Systems Coordinating Unit (2023)—signal a growing shift toward an FS approach in policy thinking. However, gaps in institutional coordination, inadequate investment in enabling infrastructure, and limited inclusion of vulnerable groups constrain the impact of these reforms.

The study concludes that Nigeria’s AFS holds potential for inclusive growth and employment generation. However, realizing this potential requires sustaining the policy focus from narrow agricultural productivity to a broader FS strategy that centers on employment quality, gender equity, youth entrepreneurship, and institutional alignment. Without such a transformation, Nigeria risks even more youth unemployment and discontent, thus missing the demographic dividend. But with targeted investments in skills, infrastructure, and policy coherence, the AFS can serve as a powerful lever for sustainable development and economic opportunity.

Minimum tillage

Soil tillage represents a key agricultural management practice for crop production, serving multiple purposes. Primarily, it is used to control weeds and increase the soil organic matter mineralization rates, making nutrients more available to plants. Other potential benefits are improved soil aeration and water filtration. However, extensive use of tillage has proven unsustainable for soil maintenance and climate regulation. Deep plowing and other cultivation practices lead to soil degradation by increasing susceptibility to erosion [1], soil runoff [2], and by reducing microbial diversity and activity [3]. Minimum tillage and no-tillage (also known as zero-tillage) address these problems by reducing soil cultivation to a minimum, or entirely avoiding it, thus promoting less disruptive and potentially more sustainable agricultural management. Specifically, no-tillage eliminates traditional plowing practices with the use of direct seeding. To be effective, direct seeding is preceded by other land preparation practices, including chemical or mechanical weed control (e.g., slashing), removal of the previous crop residues, or cover crops to create a mulch layer. Crop residues are retained entirely, or at a suitable level to ensure complete soil coverage. Seeding is then done directly through the mulch layer or through narrow slits for seed placement. Occasionally, direct seeding can be done just before harvesting the previous crop. This practice, known as relay cropping, is used to reduce weed emergence during the period the land would otherwise lie fallow. Finally, direct seeding can be also done jointly with fertilizer and amendment applications. Minimum tillage is also promoted as a method to reduce air pollution, for instance in India, where previously farmers used to burn rice straw but now apply direct seeding on cut crop residues which are spread as mulch.

Mechanical soil and water conservation

In semi-arid areas, where water scarcity and poor soil condition pose significant threats to agricultural production and to the livelihood of individual smallholders and communities, water and soil management are critical for food/water security. Limited renewable freshwater and erratic rainfall patterns in those areas restrict the reliance on irrigation, making water conservation strategies more pressing and necessary [1]. Moreover, implementing advanced irrigation systems may be challenging due to limited resources and a lack of technical expertise [2]. For smallholder farmers, the adoption of irrigation systems, such as drip irrigation, is limited by further constraints such as high costs, limited access to finance, lack of technical support, and may not be suitable for all local conditions and cropping systems [3]. Under these constraints, promoting water and soil conservation strategies practices as part of a broader water management package to increase agricultural productivity at the farm level becomes crucial for ensuring sustainable agricultural production.

Overcoming budget constraints to healthy diets: Evidence from urban Tanzania

This study investigates the impact of temporary subsidies for nutrient-dense foods on the diets of low-income households in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Vouchers for eggs, milk, and unflavored yogurt were provided to randomly selected households over a three-month period. The subsidies significantly increased the consumption of the targeted healthy foods while discounts were offered. These effects persisted up to 9 months after the end of the subsidy period and were accompanied by a shift in preferences for the targeted foods. Consumption of unhealthy complements, specifically sugar added to yogurt and milk, increased during the subsidy period. Finally, while poorer households initially benefited most, sustained impacts were greater among wealthier households. In sum, the findings demonstrate that subsidies for healthy foods can lead to sustained improvements in diets, while suggesting a role for accompanying interventions such as nutrition education to maximize net health benefits, and pointing to the need for ongoing support to the most vulnerable.

The price of fragility: Shocks, food security, and lessons from Nigeria

Over the past decade Nigeria has experienced persistent food price inflation and substantial volatility, driven by domestic fragilities and global shocks. Three major shocks – the COVID-19 pandemic (2020), the Ukraine-Russia war (2022), and fuel subsidy reform (2023) – drove large and uneven price increases, with wheat prices rising by 63.3% and brown sorghum by 83.9%. Volatility was highest for wheat flour and groundnuts, with coefficients of variation of 0.53 and 0.51, reflecting Nigeria’s dependence on imports and sensitivity to external price shocks. This study utilizes high-frequency retail price data for eight staple food commodities across all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory to analyze spatial and temporal food price dynamics, volatility patterns, and their welfare implications. To quantify welfare impacts, we use the International Food Policy Research Institute’s Food Price Simulator. Results show a 9.1 percentage point increase in food poverty (from 42.9% to 52.0%) and an 11.6-point rise in undernourishment (from 40.0% to 51.6%). Lower-income households reduced food expenditures by 12.7%, compared to 9.5% for higher-income groups, reflecting disproportionate exposure to food inflation. Northern zones had relatively lower prices for traditional grains due to more favorable agroecological conditions, while southern regions faced higher prices due to higher transport costs and limited local production. Conflict-affected northeastern states exhibited the highest volatility and food insecurity. We propose a three-pronged policy agenda: short-term safety nets and strategic reserves, medium-term reforms to strengthen market connectivity through improved transport and storage infrastructure, and long-term investments in climate-resilient, inclusive food systems.

Digital tool integration, biodiversity, and the potato value chain in Kenya: Results from a baseline survey

Potato farmers in Kenya grapple with various challenges along the value chain, including limited access to quality planting materials such as seeds and fertilizers, insufficient storage and postharvest handling facilities, fluctuating market prices, and unreliable market information systems. These challenges are further exacerbated for women and youth because of persistent social gaps in the agriculture sector. Digital tools can play a vital role in addressing these challenges by providing access to valuable agricultural information, weather forecasts, and best practices that help farmers make informed decisions and improve crop management. However, challenges persist in digital tool adoption within the agricultural value chains in sub-Saharan Africa.

The study aims to assess the impact of digital tool adoption and support on socioeconomic and agriculture-related outcomes in Kenya’s potato value chain. It piggybacks on an ongoing digital tool integration program, Business Development and Coaching (BDEC), conducted by the Farm to Market Alliance (FtMA), which targets agripreneurs in Farmer Service Centers (FSCs). By comparing a treatment group that receives this training with a control group continuing business as usual, the study evaluates the effects of agripreneurs’ adoption and expanded use of digital tools on farmers’ agriculture-based livelihoods, income generation, and job creation metrics, with a focus on youth employment and gender disparities.

Policy implementation is operational

This paper argues that policy implementation must be understood as a fundamentally operational process, not merely the execution of policy intent. It proposes a framework centered on four core dimensions of implementation: activation cost, option value, kinetics, and negotiation. Drawing on the case of the World Food Programme’s 2008 Cash and Voucher Policy, the paper shows that implementing a policy requires building physical and institutional systems, creating delivery capacity, managing uncertainty, and preserving strategic flexibility. The case is not about cash transfers as such, but about what it took—organizationally, technically, and politically—for the World Food Programme to move from a policy decision to sustained, system wide operational capability and delivery. The paper concludes that successful policy implementation depends on treating implementation itself as the central frontier of policy action—requiring investment, learning, negotiation, and time. Several implications emerge for researchers, practitioners, and investors seeking to close the gap between policy on paper and policy in action.

Advanced spatial analytics for policy support: Use cases from One CGIAR

The CGIAR Science Program on Policy Innovations (“Policy Program”) is committed to driving transformation across Food, Land, and Water (FLW) systems. Identifying viable policies and investment options through Foresight and Prioritization exercises (Area of Work 1) is key to reaching this goal. However, prioritizing interventions that are relevant to local needs and conditions, while addressing global drivers and megatrends that affect FLW systems across different scales remains a challenge. This report seeks to address this challenge. It demonstrates how spatial analytics, a fast-evolving field that sits at the intersection of economics, public policy, geography, and data science, can provide actionable policy insights. It also aims to equip policymakers and partners with advanced and accessible spatial analytical tools to design and implement tailored policies, investments and programs. The report starts by providing a unified framework that brings together diverse spatial analytics approaches to support policy. It reviews the evolution of spatial analytics, spanning geographic information systems (GIS), spatial economics, and economic models with spatially explicit inputs and outputs. It also introduces a taxonomy of building blocks to illustrate how different spatial tools and methods can address various policy questions. This report draws on 11 use cases from across CGIAR centers in which spatial analytics have been applied to inform policies across Africa, Asia, and Latin America. It demonstrates how spatial analytics can identify priority intervention areas and appropriate actions at the local level while accounting for global drivers. Key challenges in scaling spatial analytics for policy application are also identified, including data gaps, methodological complexities, and computational constraints. The report concludes by outlining future directions to fully leverage spatial analytics for policy support. This report aims to advance the integration of spatial analytics across disciplines and scales, enabling the translation of local spatial patterns into regional and global policy frameworks. The curated use cases show that spatial analytics is no longer a niche technical exercise, but an operational tool that facilitates FLW systems transformation towards desirable futures. By systematically linking spatial heterogeneity to multi-scale policy needs, spatial analytics can generate actionable and scalable insights for policy development and implementation

Signaling, screening, or sunk costs? Experimental evidence on how prices affect agricultural technology adoption in East Africa

Free samples are a widely used strategy to introduce new products or technologies, offering prospective users the opportunity to gain firsthand experience and potentially facilitate diffusion through social networks. However, concerns remain that giving away products for free may reduce their perceived value, increasing the risk that recipients will underutilize, repurpose, or resell the product rather than use it for its intended purpose. We explore three mechanisms through which charging a positive price may increase uptake, intended use and subsequent adoption of a new technology: (1) a signaling effect, where a positive price conveys higher product quality; (2) a screening effect, whereby payment deters users who do not value the product and targets those more likely to use it; and (3) a sunk cost effect, where paying a positive price induces a psychological commitment to use. We test how these pricing mechanisms shape uptake, use, and subsequent adoption of recently released seed varieties of staple food crops, drawing on a field experiment with smallholder farmers in Uganda and Ethiopia. We find that willingness to pay is a reliable predictor of subsequent use of seed trial packs, pointing to the value of modest prices for targeting likely adopters. At the same time, sunk cost effects are context specific and often negative, suggesting that charging farmers can reduce their ability or willingness to experiment. These findings carry important implications for how pricing strategies can be designed to promote technology adoption in low-income settings.

Cash, food, and vouchers: An overview of the evidence

The choice of different modalities for transferring resources to extremely poor households—food provided in-kind, cash, or intermediate modalities such as vouchers—has long been the subject of active debate in both policy and research. This note provides an overview of the recent evidence around the relative effectiveness of cash and food aid, drawing on studies conducted over the last 20 years around the world.

Each modality has some potential advantages. Cash transfers are flexible in allowing recipients to use resources to meet a range of material needs (including, but not limited to food); and when they do choose to purchase food, allows them to choose a basket of items that is optimal based on their preferences. (The corresponding disadvantage of food transfers is that if recipients de sire nonfood items, they have to resell food for funds, often at a nontrivial transaction cost.) Cash transfers are often easier and lower-cost to deliver (particularly given the substantial growth of electronic payment systems) compared with the more complex logistical requirements of delivering food, especially perishable food. They are also generally less observable, potentially rendering them less likely to generate stigma or demands for sharing from nonrecipients. Cash can also have indirect beneficiaries through positive spillover effects in the local economy, though the evidence base for this is not large, and suggests that spillovers may be negative in some contexts.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: September 2025

In September 2025, Sudan’s markets showed relative stability despite conflict, inflation, and weather related disruptions. Cereal and vegetable prices remained broadly stable, while meat, oilseeds, and fuel saw moderate fluctuations. Availability of most essential goods improved slightly, though Darfur states continued to record the highest prices. The parallel exchange rate rose to about 3,100 SDG/USD, widening the gap with the official rate. Traders cited transport costs, heavy rains, and checkpoint fees as key drivers of higher prices, though logistical challenges eased from August. Liquidity and infrastructure conditions improved: 71 percent of merchants reported no cash short ages and 93 percent faced no storage or power issues. However, security risks persisted in Darfur and Kordofan, affecting trade safety. Profit margins remained mostly stable, while tax compliance declined, especially at the federal level. Despite ongoing challenges, merchants remain resilient—two-thirds plan to maintain current trade levels, and nearly one-fifth aim to expand, reflecting cautious optimism amid uncertainty.

Cash transfers and inflation: An overview of the evidence

Cash transfer programs are a leading form of social assistance, reaching up to 21 percent of the population in at least 68 low- and middle-income countries (World Bank 2025). Between 1980 and 2023, a total of 1.4 million papers were produced on the matter (Gentilini 2024) and more have been published since. While the design and impact of these and related programs have been closely studied (Banerjee et al. 2024), much less is known about whether or not cash transfer programs cause increases in the market price of good and services—that is, inflation. By reducing the purchasing power of money, program-driven inflation can diminish the positive impacts of cash transfers for recipients and create a negative spillover for nonrecipients, thus undermining program aims of improving social welfare. Recent literature on cash transfers and inflation is limited and often described as dichotomous: on one side, Egger et al. (2022) and other studies find little to no effect, while, on the other side, Filmer et al. (2023) find sizable and alarming inflationary effects on selected commodities. However, a closer look at these and other papers reveals that their results are less contradictory than they first appear. Rather, the whole body of the current literature is congruous with the hypothesis that cash transfers have minimal average effects on prices for most market goods; but these transfers can cause inflation where they significantly increase market demand for goods for which supply is relatively inelastic. This review proceeds as follows. We first present a simple conceptual model that illustrates the theoretical basis for this hypothesis, followed by an overview of the studies included in the review and their key differences. The next section presents a synthesis of the main findings in the existing empirical evidence. We then look at related research just outside the purview of this review. The conclusion discusses key takeaways.

Taking stock: Impacts of 50 years of policy research at IFPRI

As the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) marks its 50th anniversary, the Institute and its key stakeholders pause to take stock of what is known about its policy influence and impact over the years. What does the available evidence tell us about IFPRI’s achievements as an international research institution? Have its activities contributed to better policy and investment decisions by governments, development agencies, nongovernmental organizations, the private sector, and others involved in the economic and social development of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)?

This report builds on a stocktaking paper published for IFPRI’s 40th anniversary, whose findings were generally favorable, by using more recent external sources of evidence to provide updated answers to these questions. It synthesizes bibliometric and download data, as well as a series of independently conducted impact assessment studies of many of IFPRI’s research programs and projects. This task has been facilitated by the availability of 40 such evaluations, commissioned by IFPRI, the CGIAR Research Programs on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health and on Policies, Institutions, and Markets, or project donors. Additionally, other agencies commissioned several evaluations of specific country and regional policies that IFPRI helped influence. This wealth of independent assessments is rare for a policy research institution. Moreover, IFPRI’s commissioning or co-commissioning of 36 impact assessments over 25 years demonstrates a serious commitment to an impact evaluation culture and a willingness to learn from its experiences.

Malawi: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Malawi’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) processors, seed systems, and farmers credit are shown to be the most cost-effective at driving improvements in social outcomes, like poverty and undernourishment. They are also highly ranked in terms of expanding agrifood GDP and employment. Investments in extension and advisory services for livestock, SME traders, and seed subsidy also rank high. However, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, which highlights potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of in vestment options overtime and when extreme production shocks occur.

Are poor people conditionally cooperative? Contrasting evidence from a field-adapted contributions game

We study conditional cooperation using a field-adapted conditional contributions game in rural Mozambique, eliciting community members’ willingness to contribute to a new public program conditional on how many others contribute. While past studies suggest most people are conditional cooperators (contributing more as others do), most of our sample (57%) are undefined by standard classifications. Instead, our sample's most common types are largely absent from the literature: counter conditional cooperators (contributing less as others do) and v-shaped cooperators, both for monetary donations (30% and 19%) and volunteering (35% and 12%). Our findings motivate future research in both non-laboratory and low-income settings.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: August 2025

This report presents an overview of trends in prices, availability, and quality of key commodities, while also capturing traders’ perceptions of supply, demand, and market conditions in Sudan between February and August 2025.

Sidama Coffee Agronomy Program: Impact report

Coffee is Ethiopia’s most important export crop, and it constitutes an important source of livelihood for an estimated 15 million people across the value chain, most of whom are poor smallholder farmers. While coffee production and exports generally increased over the last decade or so, several constraints are still keeping the sector from attaining its full potential. Low-yielding, aged coffee trees and poor farm management and agronomic practices are among the main constraints. Between 2019 and 2022, TechnoServe (TNS)—in collaboration with Max und Ingeburg Herz Stiftung/HereWeGrow (HWG)— implemented a 25-month coffee agronomy training program in the Sidama region of Ethiopia that comprised a package of interventions to address these constraints and increase smallholders’ coffee productivity and income. In particular, the program covered five woredas/districts (Aleta Chuko, Dale, Bona Zuria, Hawela, Shebedino) and reached 47,759 farm households in two cohorts (2019 and 2020).

A good global investment for the United States: How investing in CGIAR makes America stronger, safer and more prosperous

This report documents how CGIAR investments have delivered substantial economic, security, and diplomatic benefits for the U.S. that far exceed financial contributions. By driving agricultural innovation and providing evidence-based insights, CGIAR has boosted U.S. farm productivity, expanded export markets, and made food more affordable for American consumers. It has also helped prevent billions of dollars in potential damage from pests and diseases that threaten U.S. food security and farm livelihoods. CGIAR promotes American leadership in agricultural innovation by supplying the majority of the genetic materials used in U.S. crop breeding and acting as a critical research partner for U.S. businesses and universities. CGIAR also makes America safer and stronger through its work on predicting crises, protecting food security, and on improving livelihoods as an alternative to migration.

Women’s control over income and household spending decisions: A rapid review

Often-cited studies show that when women influence or control household spending decisions, they tend to spend in ways that improve the welfare of their household. However, these studies are decades old, and the most recent review of this evidence was published over a decade ago (see Doss 2013). We present a rapid review of this literature since 2013 on women’s relative bargaining power over household resource allocation and its relationship with key well-being outcomes. Specifically, we review the evidence to answer the following questions: 1) Does women’s control over income within the household influence household expenditure patterns?; 2) Does the source of women’s income matter for spending decisions?; and 3) Does the amount of women’s income matter for spending decisions?

We employ a rapid review approach to identify research published since 2013 that focuses on how women who have influence or control over spending decisions allocate those resources and associations with well-being outcomes. Utilizing key search terms and clear selection criteria, we identified 46 papers. Most studies represent sub-Saharan Africa. They employed a range of methods and represented a mix of observational and experimental (or quasi-experimental) designs. Most studies did not specify the source of income, but we did identify those focused on income from agricultural or off-farm activities, remittances, and cash transfers.

Our review of the literature since 2013 has generally found evidence that is consistent with the research prior to 2013, but more convincing as there has been an increase in causal evidence published. Compared to men, women prioritize spending on investments in children, their education, food – including more diverse and nutrient-dense foods – and on healthcare regardless of income source. Overall, women’s influence over resource allocation decisions tend to promote equitable distribution of money to boy and girl children. We see mixed results around how women prioritize investing in savings compared to men; several studies indicated women prioritize savings more than men but do so for different reasons, although one study in a matrilineal society indicated that women prioritize food budgets at the expense of building savings. And finally, there is consistent evidence that the share of household budgets spent on adult goods or vices (primarily alcohol and tobacco) reduces when women have higher relative bargaining power over how these resources are allocated. Few studies considered how the amount of money influenced women’s ability to allocate it, suggesting that women may be able to influence spending over smaller amounts of resources compared to larger expenditures.

To address gaps identified in the literature, future studies could look across income from different sources to understand whether women have greater influence or control over certain income streams compared to others, or how the source of income may influence how the money is allocated. They could also explore the relative amount of income women can control and how women’s control over income fluctuates as total household income changes. We recommend a systematic evidence review to assess the different levers influencing women’s relative bargaining power over resource allocation within a household and understanding the outcomes of women’s bargaining power.

IFPRI Making a difference

From the 2025 update: The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) reaches millions of people through its mission to provide research-based policy solutions to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods; contribute to empowerment for all; and promote sustainable, climate-resilient food systems. Together with partners, IFPRI generates needed evidence for global, regional, and national policies, investments, programs, and institutions that contribute to poverty reduction and help ensure that all people have access to safe, sufficient, nutritious, and sustainably produced food. IFPRI is a Research Center of CGIAR, the world’s largest agricultural innovation network, and is the only CGIAR Center solely dedicated to food policy research. Through multisectoral research and engagement with stakeholders, IFPRI also informs effective policies, programs, investments, and institutions that contribute to productive livelihoods and sustainable, resilient, and equitable agriculture and food systems. The pathway from research to impact can be direct or, at times, more difficult to trace. IFPRI commissions independent, peer-reviewed assessments of our work and engages researchers in internally validating our activities. This brochure highlights some of these stories to show how IFPRI’s research is making a difference for people and the planet. With this work, we are advancing toward our vision of a sustainable world free from poverty and malnutrition.

From the 2021 update: IFPRI is reaching the lives of millions of people through its contribution to policies and programs that reduce poverty, hunger, and malnutrition. This looks at how a selection of IFPRI’s research is contributing to better outcomes for food and nutrition security and poverty reduction.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: July 2025

This report analyzes market dynamics in Sudan between February and July 2025, focusing on prices, availability, quality, fuel, exchange rates, and traders’ perceptions of supply, demand, profits, and market conditions.

Between February and July 2025, Sudan’s markets showed mixed trends and sharp regional disparities. Cereal prices were mostly stable: wheat held steady with a short rise in early July, sorghum increased in June then stabilized, millet fluctuated slightly, and wheat flour fell in early July before rising sharply. Wheat and wheat flour availability improved, while sorghum and millet availability declined marginally.

Gender attitudes in agriculture and positivity bias: A survey experiment in four countries in Sub-Saharan Africa

Extensive prior research has demonstrated that reducing gender discrimination enhances women’s empowerment, promotes more inclusive livelihoods, increases agricultural productivity, and improves other development outcomes. This study aims to contribute to documenting and informing the measurement of gender attitudes that relate directly to reaching, benefiting, and empowering women through agricultural innovations. By analyzing data from 8,051 survey respondents across study sites in Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Rwanda, our findings emphasize both commonalities and differences in gender attitudes across different contexts. Furthermore, by including a survey-based experiment during data collection, we assess whether gender-attitude statements vary depending on whether they are presented in a positive frame (focusing on equality) or in a negative frame (focusing on inequality). On average, rural women and men respondents across all countries supported more than half of the gender-equality statements. Some gender-inequality attitudes persisted across the four countries but varied in magnitude and by location, age group, and specific statement or theme. Framing matters: respondents exposed to a positive framing supported 16 percent more gender-equality statements than those exposed to a negative framing. The study highlights two main implications. First, the findings indicate the importance of considering both restrictive
attitudes and those that reflect gender-equality opportunities as being in the vanguard. Accordingly, gender-focused interventions should adopt strategies that challenge normative
views of women as supporting rather than leading actors in agriculture and economic activities. Second, gender-attitude measures do not perfectly align with country-level gender-equality
indicators or with empowerment at the intrahousehold level. They therefore capture a distinct dimension and merit their own indicators.

Displacement and development: Evidence from a graduation program for Somalia’s ultra-poor

While the population of internally displaced people around the world continues to grow, evidence around strategies to sustainably enhance livelihoods among IDPs remains extremely limited. We present findings from a randomized trial of an ultra-poor graduation program targeting IDPs in urban Baidoa, Somalia; the intervention pro-vided cash transfers, an asset transfer or technical training program, and facilitated savings groups. Our findings suggest that two years following program launch, the intervention has led to significant increases in consumption, assets, and savings; however, these effects seem to be driven almost exclusively by increased livestock production. An exploration of heterogeneous effect using generalized random forest methods further suggests that the positive effects of the treatment are dramatically larger for smaller households characterized by lower dependency ratios.

Tourism for development: A SAM-multiplier study on sports tourism in Kenya

Tourism presents a significant, yet largely untapped, opportunity for Africa to accelerate economic development, create jobs, and foster inclusive growth. This case study for sports tourism in Kenya estimates that for every $1,000 spent by a sports tourist, a total of $3,600 is generated within the Kenyan economy, highlighting the sector's substantial linkages with other sectors, particularly the food system. By 2035, sports tourism could contribute an estimated $1.21 billion to $2.14 billion to Kenya's economy annually and support the creation of up to 237,000 new jobs. About half of these jobs are expected to benefit lower and middle-income households, supporting their livelihoods and poverty reduction. To fully realize these economic and social benefits, strategic policy interventions are crucial, including targeted investment in tourism infrastructure, marketing, and skill development; a
concerted effort to improve the overall business climate to incentivize private sector engagement; and enhanced inter-ministerial coordination between tourism, planning, agriculture and other key stakeholders. While this study focuses on economic impacts, realizing these benefits requires careful planning and sustainable practices to mitigate potential environmental and social challenges.

Ethical use of artificial intelligence in food, land and water systems research: A guide for equity and inclusion

This document aims to support CGIAR researchers and their partners by providing guidance, recommendations and resources on ethical considerations in using artificial intelligence (AI) in food, land and water systems (FLWS) research and practice with attention to equity and inclusion dimensions. This toolkit complements the GENDER Impact Platform Ethics and Standards Toolkit and aligns with CGIAR’s core ethical values outlined in the CGIAR Ethics Framework and the CGIAR Research Ethics Code.

In response to the rapid development and adoption of emerging AI technologies, the toolkit presents key issues and practical recommendations for researchers to consider across the research cycle, drawing on a comprehensive literature review and interviews with experts in AI ethics and social inclusion.

AI systems, as used in this context, refer to technologies that mimic aspects of human cognition and behavior—interpreting real-world data, generating predictions, and adapting through continuous learning (Benefo et al. 2022; Fu 2022; Manning et al. 2022). These systems are increasingly central to a suite of AI and agricultural technologies poised to transform FLWS research: not only in how we conduct research and generate insights, but also in how we define best practice for gender-related research and understand the downstream impacts of our research outputs.

Zambia: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Zambia’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) traders and processors are shown to be the most cost-effective at driving improvements in social outcomes, like poverty and undernourishment. They are also highly ranked in terms of expanding agrifood GDP and employment. Expansion in extension and advisory services for livestock, rural roads, farmers credit, and seed systems also rank high. How ever, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, which highlights potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options overtime and when extreme production shocks occur.

The emerging one-stop shop in agricultural value chains: Agro-input retailers in Myanmar

With the intensification and modernization of agriculture in Myanmar, farmers are increasingly dependent on purchased agro-inputs—such as seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides—to enhance productivity. These inputs are typically acquired from small and medium-sized agro-input retailers. Despite their growing significance in agrifood value chains, limited research has examined the roles these retailers play. Drawing on large-scale, nationwide surveys of farmers and agro-input retailers in Myanmar, we explore their operations and implications in this context. Key findings include:
1. There is widespread and increased use of agro-chemicals in Myanmar. Among dry season crop farmers, pesticides were the most commonly purchased input, reported by 73 percent of respondents, closely followed by fertilizers at 72 percent. While fertilizer usage has remained relatively stable compared to nearly a decade ago (75 percent in 2016), pesticide use has increased significantly—rising by 13 percentage points since 2016.
2. The expansion of pesticide use is reflected in official data. In 2017, just over 500 pesticide products were registered; by 2024, this number had increased eightfold. Similarly, pesticide imports in 2023 were five times higher than in 2013.
3. Many agro-input retailers provide complementary services beyond product sales, offering services such as credit, agricultural extension advice, mechanization facilitation, transportation, crop buying, and emergency loans. These complementary services integrate them more deeply into agricultural value chains.
4. Only 12 percent of retailers provided none of the aforementioned complementary services, while 16 percent offered four or more. Competition is a driver of service provision—retailers located near competitors are more likely to offer extension and credit services.
5. Retailers in insecure areas are equally engaged in delivering complementary services as those in more secure regions.
6. Agro-input retailers are a vital source of credit, with nearly half of the farmers purchasing inputs on credit—typically at a monthly interest rate of 2 percent. Larger farmers are more likely than smaller ones to access credit through retailers.
7. Nearly half of the farmers reported receiving agricultural extension advice from their main retailer. This advice often pertains to retailer-sold products but can also address broader agronomic issues. Larger farmers are more likely to use these services than smaller ones. Given the limited availability of public extension services in Myanmar, agro-input retailers are an important, yet often overlooked, source of agricultural knowledge.
8. Despite their advisory role, farmers generally trust retailers’ advice less than other sources. Trust in agro-input retailers ranks below that in other farmers, public, and private extension agents, and only above trust in mills. Notably, medium and large farmers exhibit higher relative trust in retailers compared to smaller farmers.
9. Policy Implications:
• The rapid increase in pesticide use by farmers in the country raises a number of health, safety, and environmental concerns, especially in a situation where oversight is limited given insecurity and travel concerns.
• The decline in public agricultural service delivery, such as extension and credit, in the country also underscores the need for increased attention from stakeholders focused on agricultural productivity and equity. • While agro-input retailers play crucial, multifaceted roles, their services are not universally accessible. Over-reliance on private providers may risk marginalizing smaller farmers from critical services like credit.
• The dependence on retailers for extension advice raises concerns about accessibility and credibility. Low trust in retailer-provided information may hinder behavior change and contribute to product misuse, especially regarding inputs with health and environmental risks like pesticides.
• Further research is needed to understand the nature and impact of the advice given by private retailers. Complementary policy efforts—such as training, certification programs, and trust-building initiatives—may help enhance service quality and farmer confidence.

Leveraging project insights to strengthen WEAI for climate research

Key messages
• Measuring women’s empowerment in the context of climate change, resilience, and adaptation requires a flexible climate module—not a rigid, universal set of indicators.
• Collective agency, community involvement, and social networks are critical to climate resilience. The project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (pro-WEAI)
should expand its climate module to better capture these community dynamics and collective actions.
• Integrating qualitative methods strengthens pro-WEAI’s effectiveness and ensures the tool is tailored to local contexts, which is essential for collecting meaningful and holistic data.

External assessment of outcomes from IFPRI’s causal impact evaluation research 2012–2022

This report describes methods and findings from an assessment of the International Food Policy Research Institute’s (IFPRI) causal impact evaluation (CIE) research over the period 2012–2022. CIE research is recognized within IFPRI as one of its primary means for contributing to informed policy and program decisions and thus forms a key part of one of its impact pathways. Appendix A contains the terms of reference (TOR) for the study. The main goal was to examine how the outputs of this research were used by stakeholders to make decisions. Many of the impact evaluations considered were conducted in partnership with donors and implementing organizations eager to know the effectiveness of their programs and interventions.

IFPRI at a glance

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) believes that by working together, the global community can sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition. IFPRI provides cutting-edge research and policy options on food and nutrition security to support these goals. For more than 40 years, IFPRI has collaborated with stakeholders and partners to contribute needed evidence for country- and region-led policies that help ensure that all people have access to safe, sufficient, nutritious, and sustainably grown food.

2024 IFPRI annual report

IFPRI’s 2024 annual report reviews highlights from our research to reduce hunger and malnutrition, including work in conflict-affected settings and on nutrition and diets, and our engagement around the world through our country and regional offices and global events.

Rural credit, food security, and resilience: An empirical evaluation from Kenya

In this paper, we examine the role of credit in enhancing rural households’ food security and resilience. In so doing, we consider resilience as a higher order capacity outcome, different from traditional development outcomes associated with households’ or individuals’ welfare. We evaluate the effectiveness of two types of agricultural production credit products, one a traditional credit and one that is linked to rainfall index insurance to protect borrowers against the adverse effects of drought. Based on a randomized controlled trial conducted in Machakos county, Kenya, we report both intent-to-treat effects as well as local average treatment effects to demonstrate the impacts of these credit products not only among borrowers, but the broader effects of expanding rural credit markets. We see generally low levels of food security resilience among our sampled households, but we find compelling evidence that credit and expanded credit markets more broadly had beneficial impacts on enhancing households’ food security and resilience. Despite the differences in the two credit products being evaluated, we do not find an appreciable difference in the effects of the two credit types, concluding that the expansion of affordable agricultural credit markets should be among the key policy tools for building resilience among rural smallholders.

Uncovering the pathways to gender equality and women’s empowerment through agricultural research for development: Lessons from the Feed the Future innovation labs

Gender equality and women’s empowerment are important development goals for their intrinsic value as well as for achieving other important wellbeing outcomes, such as improved health, nutrition, and food security. Agricultural research for development plays an important role in understanding gender relations, dynamics, and inequalities and in identifying effective strategies and interventions to achieve these goals. The Feed the Future Innovation Labs (ILs) were initiatives supported by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and led by U.S. universities, in partnership with international and national research institutes, with the aim to achieve poverty reduction, food security, nutrition, and resilience objectives. The ILs also aimed to facilitate women’s empowerment and address gender inequality in agri-food systems (AFS).

This study aims to document, categorize, and identify learnings from gender-related research produced by the ILs through an extensive desk review and key informant interviews (KIIs) with gender focal points, researchers, and directors at the ILs. While recognizing the importance of capacity building for gender-related research, we only look at research products and do not review capacity building or other training materials for gender-related research produced by the ILs. As this study is focused on understanding gender-related learnings, we also do not include gender-blind research products produced by the ILs. Based on the final set of research outputs that have at least some focus on gender, we then analyze the gender-related research findings using the reach, benefit, empower, and transform framework. In addition, we also explore the factors that enabled ILs to prioritize and produce gender-related research and learnings.

We draw lessons about the types of research studies that have been carried out under the ILs and the insights that can be gleaned from these studies for designing agricultural innovations and interventions and understanding what works to address gender inequalities in agrifood systems. Much of this work was gender focused and diagnostic or formative. Fewer research studies employed causal methods to understand how interventions are influencing gender equality and women’s empowerment in agriculture. Only a subset of research focused on specific innovations or interventions, which suggests more research is needed in this area, particularly as new innovations are being tested and scaled, as was the objective of many of the ILs. We highlight areas where additional research is needed to inform investments and interventions going forward, such as an increase in integrating gender-informed approaches in research across disciplines, gender-related research that employs causal methods, and in understanding the impacts of interventions that are gender-transformative. Finally, we identify key enabling factors that helped ILs prioritize gender integration, such as institutional leadership’s support for gender integration, sufficient time and budgets earmarked for gender work and staff, and ensuring staff responsible for gender-related research have requisite skills, expertise, and communication skills to work across interdisciplinary teams. Current and future agricultural research for development projects should prioritize gender-related research across their portfolios to strengthen attention to understanding how innovations and interventions can influence gender equality and women’s empowerment in agriculture.

Lessons on methodologies to assess women’s empowerment from two agricultural and livestock project portfolios

To assess broader trends and impacts on women’s empowerment through agricultural development interventions, there is a need to compare projects and their impacts. This paper is based on the experiences of the Cultivate Africa’s Future (CultiAF) and the Livestock Vaccine Innovation Fund (LVIF) project portfolios implemented in African and Asian countries. We draw lessons from the constraints and opportunities of using standardized tools for measuring women’s empowerment, such as the project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (pro-WEAI) and the Women’s Empowerment in Livestock Index (WELI) tools. We also make recommendations for the improvement of these tools and their use.
We conclude that, while these tools measure individual and household-level empowerment, complementary methods are needed to capture broader societal changes. The length of
the tools has resulted in concerns about respondent fatigue, but balancing the need for comprehensive data with respondent burden is important. Streamlined versions of the pro-WEAI and the WELI could be useful for projects not primarily focused on empowerment. Proper interpretation of empowerment data is emphasized in this paper, with comparisons across time, gender and projects identified as being key to meaningful insights. The paper also underscores the importance of consistent measurement to ensure valid results.
These learnings can inform improvement of the tools to better identify the best approaches to support women’s empowerment in agriculture and livestock. The learnings will also be useful for development and research organizations implementing portfolios of projects with women’s empowerment objectives and for developers of pro-WEAI tools, WELI tools and similar tools for measuring women’s empowerment.

Gender-based barriers hindering the uptake of CSA and CIS technologies in rice production systems in Mali

Women face significant challenges to adapt to the climate change effect in rice farming, due to socio-cultural norms, and unequal access to agricultural resources, climate-adapted technologies, and climate information services. This study explores the gendered constraints and opportunities in rice production in Mali, with the aims to identify enabling mechanisms that support women in accessing and using these climate smart technologies and practices. It is based on qualitative data collected from 12 circles in five rice growing regions in Mali (Ségou, Sikasso, Koulikoro, Dioila, and San) among 35 key informant interviews (KIIs) held with 259 respondents (171 men and 88 women), and 40 sex-disaggregated focus group discussions (FGDs), that engaged 348 farmers (180 men and 168 women). Findings reveal that barriers to adoption of CSA and CIS technologies include socio-cultural norms, financial barriers, limited training and literacy, as well as differences in access to and control over agricultural resources; women experience additional challenge such as limited access to farmland, reliance on male counterparts for equipment, and restricted access to credit. The study recommends gender-inclusive strategies including delivering information in local languages, expanding training opportunities for farmers, and improving women’s access to credit. Awareness campaigns on climate-resilient crop varieties and sustainable practices can increase adoption and build women resilience in rice-based farming systems.

GCAN partner workshop: Report on lessons and recommendations for policy engagement and capacity strengthening

The Gender, Climate Change and Nutrition Integration Initiative (GCAN), led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), has been working to integrate gender, climate resilience, and nutrition considerations into policy, interventions, and research since 2016. Since 2023, the initiative has been working in five focal countries with support from the Gates Foundation.

AGX Unconference in Nairobi 2025: Catalyzing collaboration and charting a course for Digital Agriculture

This report summarizes the outcomes of the AGX Unconference in Nairobi, Kenya, held on July 23–24, 2025, at the ILRI Conference Center. Co-hosted by CGIAR, the Gates Foundation, GIZ, DIASCA, and DevGlobal, this inaugural gathering convened more than 150 stakeholders—farmers, technologists, researchers, policymakers, and investors—to explore how Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) can drive more efficient, inclusive, and resilient agricultural systems. Designed as a dynamic, participant-driven event, the AGX Unconference prioritized real-world challenges, co-creation, and cross-sector collaboration. Sessions were grounded in farmer and implementer perspectives, highlighting barriers such as fragmented services, inaccessible advisory support, data governance gaps, and underutilized digital tools. In response, working groups and debates examined how DPI and AI can be responsibly leveraged to reduce duplication, improve interoperability, and empower small-scale producers. A central theme throughout the unconference was the need to design systems that are not only technically robust, but also locally relevant, equitable, and built in the public interest. From creating localized AI models to strengthening data infrastructure and inclusive digital ID systems, participants stressed the importance of aligning tools, policies, and partnerships around farmer-centered solutions. The event culminated in the AGX Inspire Challenge, where participants co-developed and pitched actionable, fundable ideas—one of which received seed funding to move forward. The energy and collaboration generated throughout the Unconference underscored the urgency and opportunity of collective action.

Development readiness

Why do some systems move while others stall—even when resources, plans, and intent appear similar? This paper introduces the concept of development readiness as one way to understand and address this question. Development readiness is defined as the capacity of a system to act—at the right time, at the right scale, and with purpose—whether in response to crises or in pursuit of development goals. It emerges when kinetic capacity (the ability to move people, goods, and services) aligns with negotiation capacity (the ability to coordinate, decide, and resolve), conditioned by activation costs (tangible and intangible obstacles) and option value (flexibility to act under uncertainty). A conceptual framework based on these four operational forces is set out and illustrated with real-world examples. A structured research agenda and strategy emerges, along with implications for investment and operations. The case illustrations demonstrate that the development readiness framework applies equally at national, sectoral, and organizational levels, with wide-ranging applications—from scaling innovations, accelerating service delivery, and strengthening value chains, to deepening climate resilience and enabling coordinated action in crisis-prone and institutionally fragmented settings.

What do we know about the future of food systems innovation?

Innovations have been and will continue to be critical drivers of food systems and societal change.

Predicting “game-changing” technology ahead of time is not possible, and silver bullets do not exist.

Novel innovations can alleviate some challenges, but unintended consequences always arise.

Foresight research can help to identify undesirable outcomes early on and align investments and incentives with social and environmental objectives.

What do we know about the future of the environment and biodiversity in relation to food systems?

The environment’s proper functioning is essential for a better life on Earth, including maintaining, enhancing, and restoring biodiversity and ecosystem services. While the environment is driven by external factors and shocks as well as interventions within the global food system, it simultaneously drives the overall health and stability of the planet. This relationship involves complex interactions and tipping points, which foresight research needs to capture in analyzing alternative future pathways for food system transformation.

A sustainable and resilient environment requires holistic approaches, strategies, and policies to address environmental stresses and promote conservation, regeneration, and coexistence with nature. These include practices that respect ecological boundaries, reduce resource consumption and conflict, foster biodiversity, and enhance ecosystem recovery and adaptability. Foresight research is essential to help decision-makers understand synergies and trade-offs between long-term public goods benefits and short-term private costs from resource use and management.

Addressing food systems challenges — including root causes of environmental degradation and biodiversity loss — requires sustainable land and soil management, conservation efforts, and food production practices, in addition to economic viability and social inclusion. Foresight analysis can help policymakers, communities, and industries make informed decisions and prioritize and deploy effective and holistic strategies at the biodiversity-climate-society nexus.

What do we know about the future of agrobiodiversity in relation to food systems?

Agrobiodiversity — the diversity of living organisms that underpin agricultural systems — provides numerous critical benefits, from on-farm crop diversity and genetic resources that allow farmers to adapt crops to changing environments to the provision of ecosystem services such as pollination, disease and pest resistance, soil health, and water conservation. These benefits in turn support resilient livelihoods, food security, and diversified, nutritious diets.

A number of ex ante theoretical and practical approaches have been used to show how greater agricultural biodiversity is connected to higher production and lower risk exposure, and to assess the role that agrobiodiversity plays in supporting agricultural systems resilience. But little has been done to integrate the measurement of agrobiodiversity into foresight modeling, or to apply foresight tools and methods to study long-term effects of agrobiodiversity on socioeconomic or environmental outcomes.

The recent development of the Agrobiodiversity Index and advances in integrated modeling systems provide opportunities for improved scenario analysis focused on agrobiodiversity and informed by agroecology and agricultural economics theory.

What do we know about the future of gender equality in relation to food systems?

Foresight research has yet to fully explore gender equality as an outcome and a driver of food systems transformation.

Foresight analysis can assess which food systems investments and interventions are most effective at reducing gender inequalities and increasing women’s empowerment.

Addressing structural inequalities, promoting inclusivity in decision-making, and challenging patriarchal norms can enhance gender equality, social inclusion, and women’s empowerment in food systems transformation. Neglecting gender barriers when designing and disseminating food systems innovations may exacerbate gender inequalities and limit women’s empowerment.

Gender equality, women’s empowerment, and social inclusion also drive food systems transformation, leading to improved welfare outcomes for all. Foresight research should examine how closing gender gaps in livelihood opportunities, agricultural productivity, and resilience capacities can impact other food systems outcomes, such as poverty reduction, food security, and nutrition.

While data on gender inequalities in food systems and women’s empowerment have increased over the last 10 years, more sex-disaggregated data and impact evaluation studies are needed for rigorous foresight research on gender equality in agrifood systems.

What do we know about the future of food systems?

Food systems have achieved remarkable progress in recent decades, but moving forward, they will face significant challenges in delivering the many outputs and services we expect and need. This book presents a collection of short chapters on the current state of knowledge about different aspects of the future of food systems, written by a diverse group of scientists from around the world with expertise in a wide range of related disciplines and regions.

Each chapter examines a particular aspect of food systems, describes recent trends and challenges that highlight the importance of the topic, summarizes the latest available foresight research on that topic, and identifies key gaps in existing foresight research that merit further attention. In a world of complexity and uncertainty, the goal of this book — and the purpose of foresight analysis, more generally — is not to predict the future with precision, but rather to carefully consider and present what can be known about possible future pathways in order to inform choices today.

The collection includes 15 chapters focused on major drivers and impacts of change in food systems, 11 chapters that provide regional and national perspectives on the future of food systems, 7 chapters on the future of major food commodities, and 3 chapters on food systems measurement and modeling tools. The contributors come from across CGIAR and many other partner research institutions around the world. This collection was begun as part of the CGIAR Research Initiative on Foresight during the 2022–2024 period and completed as part of the ongoing area of work on foresight and prioritization under the CGIAR Science Program on Policy Innovations.

What do we know about the impacts of the next El Niño on agrifood systems?

As of June 2023, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared that El Niño conditions were present and consensus existed among climate prediction centers that El Niño would likely persist from November 2023 to February 2024.

El Niño is typically associated with seasonal climate anomalies and extreme weather events throughout the developing world, especially across sub-Saharan Africa, but the economic impacts caused by these events are difficult to disentangle from those of other climate shocks, natural disasters, and economic cycles. Additionally, the strength and consistency of El Niño’s agroclimatic impacts vary by region.

El Niño’s unique slow onset, periodic pattern, and lead times of prediction (from a few months to a year) make it possible to design anticipatory policies and prepare emergency responses in advance.

Policymakers should closely monitor the evolution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases and the potential impacts of El Niño and be prepared to coordinate policy responses quickly as the situation unfolds.

As global warming continues and climate extremes occur more frequently, actions to foster climate-resilient agrifood systems should be broadly prioritized.

Coping with crisis: Livelihood vulnerabilities and food insecurity in Sudan’s current conflict

Sudan’s conflict, reignited in April 2023, represents not just a military contest between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), but a total systemic collapse that has engulfed governance, infrastructure, markets, and public services. This conflict did not arise in a vacuum. Sudan has long faced structural vulnerabilities including weak institutions, a fragile economy, and climate-related stressors such as erratic rainfall and land degradation. The war, however, accelerated these pre-existing fault lines into a full-blown crisis.

Key urban economies such as Khartoum have been devastated by airstrikes and sieges, while transport corridors and trade routes have been severed. Local governance structures in many regions have been displaced or dissolved, leaving civilians without recourse to basic services or protection. Simultaneously, the banking sector has fractured, disrupting remittances, cash transfers, and supply chains across the country. Insecurity has driven over 12.8 million people from their homes – 8.6 million internally and 3.9 million seeking refuge neighboring countries, as of May 2025 (UNHCR, 2025).

What do we know about the future of pulses in global and regional agrifood systems?

Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) account for about 55 percent of global pulse production. Nearly one-half (48 percent) of global production occurs in 16 low- and lower-middle income countries in the drylands of South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

The gap between pulse demand and supply is increasing in South Asia.

Most recent foresight studies on pulses are focused on climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation.

Future foresight studies on specific pulse crops should target regions where these pulses are important in human diets.

Pulse trade should be promoted between countries that encompass the drylands of South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: June 2025

This report analyzes key market trends in Sudan from February to June 2025, focusing on the prices, availability, and quality of essential commodities—cereals, vegetables, animal products, agricultural inputs, fuel, and exchange rates. Consistent with previous editions, it reveals significant spatial and temporal disparities across Sudan’s 18 states.

Cereals showed mixed trends. Wheat prices stabilized in June after a mid-May spike, while sorghum and millet fluctuated modestly. Wheat flour prices continued rising. Perceived availability and quality, particularly of wheat and wheat flour, deteriorated in June, with highest prices in conflict-affected and remote areas. Vegetables—particularly tomatoes and potatoes—experienced sharp price hikes in June, largely due to seasonal pressures and logistical disruptions. Onion prices were more stable but showed regional variation.

Animal products faced upward price pressure and volatility. Prices of lamb, beef, and eggs rose steadily; chicken and fish were erratic, and milk prices fluctuated. Availability declined, especially for beef and eggs. Perceived quality improved for meat but dropped for chicken and fish. Other staples, including sugar, cooking oil, fava beans, and oilseeds, had relatively stable trends overall, but prices varied widely by state. Sugar and fava beans rose sharply, particularly in South Kordofan and Kas sala.

Agricultural inputs showed moderate price fluctuations. Improved seed varieties remained costlier than local ones, with peaks for wheat and potato seeds. Fuel prices in parallel markets spiked in April–May before easing in June. South Kordofan and Central Darfur recorded the highest prices.

Exchange rates continued to diverge between official and parallel markets, with wide regional dis parities—Khartoum, Gedaref, and North Kordofan reported the highest parallel rates.

Country profile – Kenya: Gender, climate change, and nutrition linkages

Agriculture is vital to Kenya's economy, accounting for 20% of the country’s GDP in 2020. Yet the growth of the sector has slowed in recent years due to unfavorable weather conditions, leading to a reduction in crop and livestock performance (Central Bank of Kenya, 2023). While employment in agriculture has been steadily declining (to 32% in 2023), the sector still employs a large share of the rural population and is the main source of informal employment, rural income, and livelihoods (D’Alessandro et al., 2015; ILO 2025).

A majority of Kenyan farmers operate on a small scale and are solely dependent on rainfall (D’Alessandro et al., 2015). However, since the 1970s, the country has experienced significant changes in rainfall pat terns--average rainfall during the long season has decreased while rainfall during other times of the year has increased and the country has experienced more frequent climate extreme events (Kogo et al. 2021). Increased climate variability has negative effects on agriculture and may exacerbate inequalities within the sector. Due to gender inequalities and gender-differentiated roles in agrifood systems, men and women do not experience climate change and variability in the same ways (Balikoowa et al., 2019; Lecoutere et al. 2023). According to the World Economic Forum, women are more vulnerable than men to climate change due to lower education and exclusion from the political and domestic decision-making processes that affect their lives (Gunawardena, 2020).

Women’s economic empowerment and leadership: Examining an intervention for smallholder farmers delivered via farmer producer organizations in Guatemala using qualitative methods

Women work across multiple nodes in agricultural value chains, though their participation in value chains varies within and across contexts and their contributions are often underrecognized (Malapit et al., 2020; Quisumbing et al., 2021). Addressing issues such as weak economic growth, climate change, and hunger will require strengthening agricultural value chains, though doing so without a gender-sensitive lens may exacerbate existing gender inequalities within them (Rubin & Manfre, 2014). Development practitioners seeking to strengthen agricultural value chains are increasingly interested in programs that use group-based approaches, as they may reach many people efficiently using such a strategy. However, there is not much evidence on how to increase women’s economic opportunities in agricultural value chains and bolster women’s leadership within the context of group-based interventions.

TechnoServe, with funding support from the Walmart Foundation, began implementing the Smallholder Market Access (SMA) program in Guatemala and Nicaragua in 2019. The goal of this program was to work with farmer producer organizations (FPOs) and affiliated smallholder farmers in fresh produce agricultural value chains (AVCs) to increase the productivity, profits, and the market share of FPOs among smallholder farmers. The program also sought to strengthen women’s inclusion in AVCs, leadership, and empowerment by offering both gender-responsive and gender-transformative program components, particularly though agronomy trainings and gender equality trainings for women and men, as well as women’s leadership trainings for women only.

This qualitative study focuses on SMA in Guatemala. We investigated gender dynamics in FPOs, women’s empowerment, women’s leadership, and how SMA may influence these themes. Ultimately, the goal of this study was to gain insights on the strengths of SMA programming with regard to women smallholder farmers’ economic and leadership opportunities, as well as to identify opportunities to strengthen the program. We collected data from in-depth interviews with eight SMA staff, nine FPO lead ers, and 18 FPO members. We also conducted six single-sex focus group discussions with FPO members, which included 15 women and 13 men total. The FPOs sampled did not receive the full SMA treatment prior to data collection; as such, the results presented in this study reflect perceptions of different components of SMA that had been only partially implemented prior to data collection.

Do others’ health count for peanuts? Health, market returns, and pro-sociality

Individuals often make decisions considering both private returns and welfare impacts on others. Food safety decisions by smallholder agricultural producers exemplify this choice, particularly in low-income countries where farmers often consume some of the food crops they produce and sell or donate the rest. We conduct a lab-in-the-field experiment with peanuts producers in Senegal to study the decision to invest in food safety information, exogenously varying the degree of private returns (monetary or health-wise) and welfare impacts on others. Producers are willing to pay real money for food safety information even absent the potential for private returns, but willingness to pay increases with the potential for private returns. A randomized information treatment significantly increases willingness to pay in all scenarios. Our results shed light on the complex interplay between altruism and economic decisions in the presence of externalities, and point to the potential of timely and targeted information to address food safety issues.

Rethinking delivery modalities in conflict-affected settings: Why beneficiaries in Sudan prefer digital transfers

The recent surge in armed conflicts across Africa is increasing demand for humanitarian and social assistance, creating significant pressure on humanitarian actors to deliver life-saving support amid insecurity and constrained resources. The conflict that erupted in Sudan in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has resulted in the world’s largest displacement crisis, triggering an acute and multidimensional humanitarian emergency requiring urgent and substantial international support. These armed conflicts in Africa are threatening important gains in poverty reduction made in the last few decades.

While armed conflicts and associated crises increase the need for assistance, they simultaneously undermine the capacity to deliver it. In conflict-affected settings, the operational environment is often marked by damaged infrastructure, disrupted markets, weakened institutions, and limited humanitarian access. These challenges hinder the effectiveness, targeting, and coverage of social protection and humanitarian aid programs (Ghorpade, 2017; 2020; Lind et al., 2022). Moreover, the proliferation of armed groups—including both state and non-state actors—can obstruct aid delivery or divert assistance, further limiting program reach and impact. Compounding these challenges is a widening humanitarian financing gap, driven by escalating needs and declining donor contributions. In response, development and humanitarian actors are increasingly exploring cost-effective delivery mechanisms to improve efficiency, transparency, and reach of humanitarian aid to vulnerable populations. Among these, digital transfers, including mobile money, offer promising avenues for delivering assistance in fragile settings where conventional approaches may be impractical or insecure.

This brief draws on evidence from Sudan to assess the feasibility and demand for digital transfers in humanitarian response. It explores emerging practices and offers insights for policymakers, donors, and implementing agencies aiming to adapt assistance modalities to meet the challenges of protracted crises.

Digital finance and agri-food value chains: Case studies from Kenya

Kenya’s agrifood systems are broad and diverse, including both staple food crops and high-value exports which are essential to the economic and social advancement of the nation. The agricultural sector em ploys more than 40 percent of Kenya's workforce, including more than 70 percent of rural residents, and accounts for about 33 percent of the country's GDP (FAO, 2023a; FAO, n.d.). The growth of Kenya’s agrifood system is largely driven by domestic market demand rather than exports, a trend driven by rapid urbanization and rising income opportunities in the rural nonfarm sector, which are leading to shifts in dietary preferences and are expected to further influence ongoing structural transformation (Diao et al., 2023).

Kenya’s agricultural sector is characterized by several value chains that significantly support economic output, job creation, and trade. Tea is Kenya's most significant agricultural export, contributing about 2 percent to the overall GDP and 4 percent to GDP in agriculture. Managed predominantly by the Kenya Tea Development Agency (KTDA), which oversees over 60 percent of national tea production, the sector supports approximately 6.5 million people (Tea Board of Kenya, 2024). Tea also contributes around 21 percent of Kenya's export earnings, which makes it the third-largest source of foreign exchange earnings in the nation after diaspora remittances and tourism (Kilimo News, 2024).

Digital finance and agri-food value chains: Case studies from Ethiopia

Agriculture is of paramount importance to Ethiopia’s economy. Agriculture accounts for 40 percent of the country's GDP, 80 percent of export earnings, and employs 75 percent of the population (Tamene & Ali, 2022). Crop and livestock production account for roughly 65 percent and 25 percent of agricultural GDP, respectively (International Trade Administration, 2024). Cereals account for roughly 90 percent of total grain production. Teff, known for its gluten-free nutritional aspect, takes the leading share of cereals by production area (ESS 2022). Ethiopia is also the second-largest wheat producer in Africa, following South Africa, with an expansion potential of 1.3 million hectares (Senbeta & Worku, 2023). Coffee, a crop with high cultural and economic importance in Ethiopia, accounts for 30 percent of exports and 25 percent of total employment. Ethiopia stands as Africa's leading coffee producer and among the top five coffee producing nations worldwide (Tefera & Torry, 2023).

Within Ethiopia’s overall agri-food system, most agricultural value chain activity fits the traditional definition, where subsistence farming dominates, postharvest value addition is minimal, and grain production constitutes the largest share (Barrett et al., 2022). However, some commodities in Ethiopia are progressing from traditional to transitional and modern value chains. The dairy value chain can be considered transitional, as it is characterized by a growing processing and logistics sector and emerging pre-urban supply chains (which disfavor remote regions with high production potential as they need more advanced logistics). The coffee value chain in Ethiopia can be considered as a modern value chain – i.e., characterized by product standardization and quality control aimed at the global market/export (Ambler et al., 2023; Barrett et al., 2022).

Digital finance and agri-food value chains: Case studies from Tanzania

Agriculture is vital to Tanzania's economic framework, significantly contributing to the country's gross domestic product (GDP). According to the ministerial report on the agriculture sector, the agriculture sector contributed 26.3 percent to national GDP in 2024, an increase from 26.2 percent in the previous year (MOA, 2025). It employed an average of 61.4 percent of the population, a slight decrease from 65.6 percent in 2023. Furthermore, agriculture provides 65 percent of essential raw materials for industries (MOA, 2024). Specifically, crop production recorded a growth rate of 4.2 percent in 2023, up from 2.7 percent in 2022, contributing 16.1 percent to national GDP, an increase from 15 percent in 2022 (MOA, 2024). Agriculture continues to play a critical role in ensuring food security, meeting 128 percent of domestic food demand in 2024 (MOA, 2025). Exports of agricultural products also saw substantial growth, reaching approximately USD 3.54 billion in 2023/2024, a significant increase from about USD 1.2 billion in 2019/2020 (MOA, 2025).
Tanzania's agricultural transformation increasingly relies on modernizing agri-food value chains, especially those linking rural producers to growing urban and export markets, which are seeing a widening price gap. Value addition is essential for improving agricultural productivity and can take multiple forms. Hidayati et al. (2023) categorize value addition based on quality, safety, and market orientation, while emphasizing the importance of social factors such as job creation and food safety, alongside economic aspects such as sales, profitability, and environmental impacts. In agriculture, value addition involves transforming raw materials into finished products and by-products through processes such as drying, processing, packaging, and distribution. These activities enhance the market value of agricultural products, bolster economic growth through job creation, and contribute to food security. Consequently, maximizing value addition is crucial to fully leveraging the potential of Tanzania’s agricultural sector and translating it into measurable economic growth.

Scaling impact, enriching lives: HarvestPlus 2024 annual report

In 2024, the Global South continued to face food and nutrition insecurity driven by conflict, economic shocks, forced displacement, and climate extremes. Malnutrition persists at high levels, especially among children, while funding for solutions is declining. A fundamental rethink is needed about how to sustainably meet the food and nutrition needs of vulnerable populations. At HarvestPlus, we are acting urgently to scale up nutrients in diets in Asia, Africa, and South America. By the end of 2024, over 360 million people benefited from more nutritious diets through biofortified foods—a nine percent increase over last year. There is an additional reach of biofortified crops through organizations like International Potato Center (CIP), The Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, IITA, and others civil society actors which is heartening to note. We continued to empower women smallholder farmers along the value chain with knowledge, business skills, and opportunities. They are driving change by developing and marketing nutrientenriched foods within their communities, making their local food systems more resilient. Improving the nutrition of children and adolescents is a vital focus of our work. This year, we strengthened local supply chains and facilitated the inclusion of home-grown nutritious crops in school meal programs. As a result, over one million schoolchildren in Asia and Africa had access to meals enriched with biofortified foods. These efforts, combined with our delivery of nutrition education, are shaping healthier, more productive futures. A special thank you to Chef Sanjeev Kapoor for championing this work in India under our Nutri-Pathshala school meal model. Partnerships with CGIAR centers and national agricultural research and extension systems (NARES) enabled the release of 12 new biofortified crop varieties in five countries in 2024. These varieties provide farmers with competitive yields and more nutrients—adding diversity to the agricultural system while enriching the food system. By boosting supply and demand, we are making nutrient-rich foods more affordable, available, and accessible for the most vulnerable. Our delivery models scale innovations like biofortification and other nutritious crops and technologies rapidly and at low cost, ensuring they reach those who need them most and create impact at scale. In Pakistan, over 50 percent of wheat grain production is now zinc-enriched, funded primarily through public and private seed sector investments. In Nigeria, over 10 million people are consuming vitamin A maize on farms, with the private sector playing a major role in its scaleup. Going forward, these delivery models will be deployed through our scaling arm, HarvestPlus Solutions. We are encouraged by strong interest from the private sector in partnering with HarvestPlus Solutions. These partnerships are central to our long-term development work, particularly in the current funding environment. In 2024, we continued to transition HarvestPlus’ delivery and commercialization work to HarvestPlus Solutions and its network of partners. Sustainability is at the core of our approach, where local actors lead local solutions at the last mile. Our progress in 2024 is thanks to the collective dedication and passion of our team, partners, and donors. We have come a long way, but there’s still more to do. With continued support, we can deepen our impact, accelerate innovation, and nourish millions more.