Publications

IFPRI’s research on agricultural insurance

For over 40 years, IFPRI has been a driver of innovation in agricultural insurance, providing partners with evidence, innovative tools, and policy solutions to improve the availability, affordability, and quality of agricultural insurance. Our research evaluates product performance, identifies barriers faced by farmers—especially women—and insurers, and tests innovations to strengthen existing insurance and develop new instruments.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: January 2026

Figures on: Cereals and Flour, Lentils, Rice, and Pigeon Peas, Vegetables, Meat and Animal Products, Oilseeds, Cooking Oil, Sugar, and Fava Beans, Seeds, Fertilizers, Diesel and Petrol, Exchange Rates, Labor wages, and Market Actors’ Perceptions,

Conceptualizing and measuring dimensions of tenure security: Gendered analysis from Malawi, Bangladesh, and Nepal

Women’s property rights and tenure security are recognized as critical for development policy and practice. Yet there is no consensus on how to conceptualize or measure these concepts. In this paper, we explore the relationships between perceived tenure security, as reported by survey respondents, with documentation and the bundle of rights that are often used to define property ownership. We use data from the pilot of the Women’s Empowerment Metrics for National Statistics (WEMNS) in Malawi, Nepal, and Bangladesh on both agricultural land and housing. The land rights module was designed to match indicators being collected to support the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Similar questions were asked regarding the dwelling. Regression results find few associations between perceived tenure security and property rights (holding individual or sole land rights, having your name on a document, and holding rights to sell and bequeath). We thus use Sankey diagrams to visualize these relationships. In Malawi, two-thirds of those without documents, both men and women, are tenure secure. In Bangladesh, over half of the respondents are landless and thus do not have tenure security. Two-thirds of Bangladeshi women respondents in landed households report that they are tenure secure, in spite of not having their own names on the documents. In Nepal, we find a high level of both property ownership (90 percent) and tenure security (80 percent). The patterns differ across contexts and between land and housing. The results confirm that the documentation of rights and having sole or joint rights are important but should not be conflated with tenure security.

The making of a non-parametric multi-shock index (MSI)

Households in low- and middle-income countries increasingly face overlapping economic, climatic, health, and conflict-related shocks that jointly erode welfare and food security. Yet many empirical and operational tools still measure shocks one at a time or aggregate them using ad hoc rules that assume equal severity and linear effects. This paper proposes a non-parametric multi-shock index (MSI) that summarizes household exposure to multiple shocks using an assumption-light, data-driven approach. The MSI construction proceeds in two steps: (i) shocks are empirically filtered based on their observed negative association with food security outcomes (anchored to the Food Consumption Score), and (ii) retained shocks are aggregated using alternative weighting schemes, including unweighted, population-weighted, and prevalence-weighted variants. We validate the MSI using multiple food security measures—Food Consumption Score (FCS), Reduced Coping Strategy Index (rCSI), Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES), and Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS). An application using FAO’s Data in Emergencies (DIEM) household survey for Nigeria illustrates the approach and shows that cumulative exposure—especially systemic and compound exposure—is strongly associated with deteriorating food security outcomes. Among tested variants, the prevalence-weighted MSI provides the clearest discriminatory power and distributional sensitivity, supporting its use for targeting, monitoring, and shock-responsive programming (FAO, 2016; Maxwell et al., 2014; World Bank, 2018).

Crop diversification and nutritional resilience amid conflicts: Evidence from farmers in Myanmar

Resilient food and nutrition systems that support dietary diversity are central to improving welfare outcomes and fostering the formation of human capital, with lasting implications for socioeconomic development. Historically, while smallholders in developing countries have accessed food both from diversified farms or kitchen gardens, markets have increasingly become the more dominant source of diet diversity as agrifood systems continue their transformation. Yet little is known regarding how intensifying conflicts and social instability affect these linkages between agrifood systems and households’ dietary diversity. Addressing this knowledge gap is particularly relevant for countries like Myanmar, which is characterized not only by escalating conflicts in recent years but also by relatively lower levels of overall crop diversification and dietary diversity at the national level compared to many other countries in East and Southeast Asia. By using unique panel datasets from Myanmar that cover significant spatiotemporal variation in conflict intensity and addressing the potential endogeneity of crop diversification, we provide new evidence on the resilience of household dietary diversity in conflict-affected settings. We find that increased incidence of violent events at township levels (a proxy for conflict intensity) significantly lowers household dietary diversity during the post-monsoon season, particularly the diversity derived from purchased food items. These adverse effects are relatively more pronounced for healthier food items, such as pulses/legumes/nuts and vegetables/leaves. However, the negative impacts of conflicts on dietary diversity in the post-monsoon season are significantly mitigated by greater diversity in food crop production for farm households during the preceding monsoon season. Results are robust across different measurements of crop diversification and violent events. These findings suggest that in conflict-prone developing countries like Myanmar, household-level crop diversification remains an important strategy for farmers to safeguard household dietary diversity.

Barriers and opportunities for youth in northern Nigeria’s agrifood value chains: Findings from qualitative research

In Africa, the population of youth ages 15–35 is expected to exceed 100 million by 2030, underscoring the need for the inclusion of youth in the design of programs and policies that promote sustainable livelihoods (International Labour Organization [ILO], 2017). Moreover, half of the youth population will be young women, emphasizing the need for gender-sensitive approaches. While many rural African youth are involved in various nodes of agricultural value chains (AVCs), far fewer—particularly young women—have access to dignified and fulfilling work. Many of the barriers that youth face in fully participating in the agricultural sector are reinforced by gender norms. Addressing the barriers to dignified and fulfilling work can help transform AVCs to be more inclusive of youth and ensure both young women and young men have access to improved livelihood opportunities. Considering the great potential of African youth for inclusive growth, in 2018, the Mastercard Foundation launched its Young Africa Works Strategy in nine countries, including Nigeria. The objective of the strategy is to increase access to dignified and fulfilling work opportunities for African youth, particularly young women (Mastercard Foundation, 2025b; Wallace, Lindsay, 2020).

This report presents findings from a qualitative research study on the barriers and opportunities experienced by young women and young men who participate in key AVCs in northern Nigeria. This study is especially important given that many who reside in the region are somehow involved in agriculture and that youths’ livelihood experiences may be influenced by religious and gender norms, as well as the ongoing conflict. We investigate youth participation in key AVCs, their perceptions of dignified and fulfilling work, facilitators and constraints to their participation in AVCs, with an emphasis on gender norms, and their experiences with financial services.

To investigate these topics, we conducted semi-structured interviews (SSIs) and sex-segregated focus group discussions (FGDs) with young women and young men. We also interviewed non-youth adults (those ages 35 and older), including value chain actors, financial service providers, and frontline program staff using key informant interviews (KIIs), and conducted community profiles (group interviews with community leaders) to gain a holistic perspective on the experiences of youth in AVCs. While our study emphasizes the opportunities and challenges faced by youth, it relies on perspectives from a diverse range of youth and non-youth adults to provide comprehensive insights into the context in which youth live and work. All participants were recruited by liaising with local community leaders, except for program staff, who were recruited with support from project partners, and financial service providers, who were recruited by field team members scouting banks in the study area.

The qualitative methods used for this study do not allow for generalizable, population-level results; rather, they provide rich insights into the “how” and “why” behind various experiences, perspectives, and opinions underpinning youths’ livelihood opportunities. In other words, the findings presented in this report offer insights into the processes that underlie youths’ experiences with dignified and fulfilling work, particularly regarding their participation in AVCs.

Unsurprisingly, young women and young men participate in processing and marketing in different ways, which is often reinforced by gender and religious norms. For instance, young women are discouraged from working outside the home and are largely confined to home-based processing, where they can be monitored and remain separated from unrelated men. Such concerns may limit the ability of young women to participate in AVCs in more public roles, such as selling goods in the town market. Moreover, young women’s family members, either her husband or parents, are often responsible for enforcing these norms. Women of all ages are responsible for housework and childcare, which limits them from pursuing income-generating activities. However, some young women are able to circumvent these restrictive norms. Non-Muslim women are not subject to the same religious gender norms, internally displaced young women are able to engage in a wider range of economic activities, some young women violate gender norms despite criticism, and others participate in AVC activities through others, such as by using hired labor.

Young men may also participate in some aspects of processing, particularly when it involves mechanization, as using equipment is considered a man’s domain. As for marketing, young men predominantly sell raw agricultural products in bulk. Young women typically purchase raw goods from men and process them into various food products for home-based sale.

Importantly, the findings presented in this report inform potential solutions to mitigate the constraints faced by youth participating in AVCs, including but not limited to the specific constraints imposed by gender norms. We discuss gender-transformative approaches, such as household and community dialogues, to challenge norms that restrict the ability of young women to pursue livelihood opportunities. We also highlight several promising approaches that can be paired with gender-transformative approaches. The development of systematized cottage industries may facilitate young women’s entrance into AVCs in a gender-responsive way (meaning in a way that works with existing gender norms). Stronger mentorship programs and financial services that are responsive to youth needs may also bolster young women’s and men’s participation in AVCs in northern Nigeria.

Evidence of the multifunctional performance of the Akole Landscape in Maharashtra, India

This report presents evidence on the multifunctional performance of the Akole landscape in Ahmednagar district, Maharashtra, India, located in the ecologically significant Western Ghats. Drawing on assessments conducted between 2022 and 2024, the study evaluates agronomic, economic, environmental, and social dimensions to understand landscape-level sustainability and resilience.

Akole, situated in the Sahyadri ranges, is predominantly inhabited by tribal and rural communities dependent on agriculture and forest resources. Despite its rich biodiversity and traditional knowledge systems, the landscape faces mounting pressures from soil erosion, declining water retention, deforestation, monocropping, excessive tillage, and high fertilizer use. Increasing climatic variability—marked by erratic rainfall, droughts, and pest outbreaks—further exacerbates vulnerability. Limited livelihood diversification, high poverty levels, and malnutrition intensify socio-economic risks, while critical data gaps persist, particularly in assessing human health and well-being.

The report identifies key bottlenecks and synthesizes available data to evaluate early outcomes of targeted nature-positive and agroecological interventions. It advocates a transition from production-centric agriculture to a Multifunctional Landscape approach that integrates diversified livelihoods, sustainable resource management, and equity. Such a shift is essential to enhance long-term resilience, ecological integrity, and economic sustainability under changing climatic conditions.

Ghana: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Ghana’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprints, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. In Ghana, extension in agronomy and post-harvest food loss reduction are the most cost-effective ways to improve social outcomes, including notably reducing poverty and undernourishment levels. Meanwhile, advisory services in livestock and support to small and medium enterprise (SME) processors are highly ranked in accelerating agrifood GDP and employment. Moreover, extension services for agronomy and climate, and investments in mechanization are also highly ranked. However, many of these cost-effective investments come with relatively high environmental footprints, which highlights potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options over time and moderately so in the presence of extreme production shocks.

The Cash Transfer & Intimate Partner Violence Research Collaborative: Expertise, impact, and future directions

Violence against women and girls (VAWG) has severe long-term consequences for women’s health and well-being, imposes significant economic costs through lost productivity, and has intergenerational impacts on children. Although evidence exists on effective approaches to reduce VAWG, many interventions are resource-intensive and difficult to scale. Stakeholders increasingly recognize that accelerated progress requires embedding VAWG prevention and response approaches within diverse sectors, including in existing systems and large-scale sectoral programming. Sectors focused on reducing poverty and economic insecurity offer a particularly high-potential but underleveraged opportunity. Despite their extensive reach and influence over the structural drivers of VAWG, these sectors have not traditionally focused on VAWG reduction. The field lacks actionable evidence on how to leverage these large-scale systems to reduce VAWG in ways that governments and other key actors can adopt, finance, and sustain, including approaches that reach women and girls in fragile and climate-vulnerable settings.

Urban Food Environments and Diets (UFED) online tool: Urban considerations

Specific considerations for planning and conducting assessments in urban contexts are detailed in this Urban Considerations resource, a supplement to other guidance available through the Urban Food Environments and Diets (UFED) web tool. The document covers topics such as sampling of urban communities, participatory mapping of food environments, data collection in slums and informal settlements, and identification and classification of ultra-processed foods and food consumed away from home. The Urban Considerations resource also provides a set of recommendations for improving linkages between dietary and food environment assessments, starting at the planning and design stages.

Towards inclusive and sustainable vegetable value chains in Odisha: Some policy recommendations

Odisha grows about 10.9 million tons of vegetables in 2023-24 from 0.77 million hectares, representing about 8% of Gross Cropped Area. In recent years, it has witnessed a significant increase in vegetable production and is presently the 7th largest vegetable growing state in India accounting for over 5% of national vegetable production. At the same time, there is a perception that demand for vegetables far outstrips supply; consequently, the state depends on other states to make up the shortfall in supply. The Government of Odisha has focused on increasing vegetable production with a range of innovative policies and has recognized that vegetable farming as a key pathway to agricultural commercialization and doubling farmers’ incomes.

Against this backdrop, we undertook an ambitious research effort as part of a larger project titled INCATA to document the pace and nature of transformation of vegetable value chains in Odisha. The study comprised many components, including rapid reconnaissance visits to 19 districts in the state, secondary data analysis and qualitative case studies. Our research culminated a large-scale survey of 5640 value chain actors (farmers, inputs suppliers, wholesalers, commission agents and retailers). In addition, we documented the profile of 11,800 traders across 158 vegetable markets and 35,913 households in vegetable growing villages in 24 blocks and 6 districts as part of a listing exercise. We summarize the results of this study in a series of project notes and research briefs. This policy note aims to distill lessons from the study to identify a set of policy interventions.

Risk aversion and credit access: Solving financial exclusion through contract innovation

Credit market failures may reflect voluntary withdrawal by risk-averse borrowers in addition to supply-side constraints. We conduct a randomized trial with 1,517 Bangladeshi households, offering cattle financing through conventional loans or profit-sharing contracts that spread risk between the farmer and the financial partner. Overall, interest in and take-up of the profit-sharing contracts were modestly higher than the conventional loans. However, conventional loan take-up was much lower among risk-averse farmers, and profit-sharing eliminated the take-up gap between risk-averse and non-risk-averse farmers. We find that it is male risk preferences that are associated with these decisions even when contracts explicitly target women. Livestock investment increases under both contracts with no evidence of moral hazard under profit-sharing.

Assessment of potato tuber quality in Kenya: Baseline quality assessment survey report

Potato is the second most important staple crop in Kenya after maize, supporting its food security and providing livelihoods for millions in the value chain, including over 800,000 smallholder farmers. However, fragmented marketing systems, inadequate post-harvest infrastructure, and limited access to quality inputs constrain the performance of the sector and result in severe post-harvest losses. This qualitative study provides empirical analysis on potato tuber quality among 233 farmers in Nakuru and Nyandarua counties, and among traders six different main markets in Kenya. Our findings establish a baseline for potato quality at the farm-level and in major markets, tracking individual shipments to measure degradation during transit due to lack of crucial market conditions and logistical bottlenecks. Our main results reveal some important elements that need to be addressed. Overall, potato quality is compromised at the farm gate, but this initial damage is dramatically amplified post-harvest, with skin abrasions more than doubling and rotting increasing threefold as produce moves along the value chain. Critically, these losses are compounded by limited quality-based sorting and the inadequate use of storage infrastructure, with negligible adoption of cold storage. The study also demonstrates that local/traditional handling practices and poor infrastructure quality are bigger drivers of loss than transport distance. Our research concludes that most economic losses could be addressed, being the direct result of identifiable failures in infrastructure, handling, access to information, and quality governance throughout the value chain. Most aspects of which can be mitigated with digital tools. Indeed, digital tools can enhance farmer-buyer linkages, promote digital education and advisory services -also through collaboration with Farmer Service Centers, encourage cold storage via digital incentives. These recommendations position digital tools as a catalyst for transforming the potato value chain, both directly and indirectly mitigating post-harvest losses while boosting resilience and incomes.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: December 2025

Merchants’ expectations remained broadly stable in December. About 62.5 percent planned to continue trading at current levels, similar to November. However, the share intending to expand trading volumes declined to 20.6 percent from 26.7 percent, with planned expansions mainly concentrated in Blue Nile and South Kordofan. Only small shares of merchants planned to reduce trade volumes (4.4 percent, mainly in Gedaref and North Kordofan) or relocate to other markets (around 4 percent, notably in South Kordofan and Kassala). Temporary exits from trading or changes in product mix were negligible, while uncertainty about future plans increased to 6.6 percent, up from 3.5 percent in November.

Empowerment unveiled: Gender dynamics and the impact of nutrition-sensitive agriculture interventions among ethnic minority groups in northern Vietnam

Gender equality and women's empowerment are key global agendas, yet women often face marginalization compared to men. Nutrition-sensitive agriculture interventions (NSAs) often aim to benefit women but their impacts on women's empowerment remain unclear. This study focuses on: 1) assessing the empowerment levels of women and men from three ethnic minorities in rural northern Vietnam (Thai, H'Mong and Dao) with the Project-level women's empowerment in agriculture index (Pro-WEAI); 2) examining the potential of NSA to improve women's empowerment during COVID-19 pandemic; and 3) applying an intersectional lens by analyzing how empowerment and treatment effects vary by ethnic subgroups. We conducted a Randomized controlled trial (RCT) involving around 600 rural households from 36 clusters that were randomly assigned to one of the following three treatment arms: receiving agriculture and nutrition training; receiving seed provision on top of the training; and a control group. We found that both men and women experienced disempowerment, due to ethnicity and systemic ethnical marginalization. While no significant gender discrimination in resource access was found, women faced limited mobility, overburdened workload and diminished agencies. Empowerment experiences varied across ethnicities. The NSAs improved women's mobility and group membership, yet carried different implications across ethnicities, potentially due to the interaction between the intervention, initial contextual conditions and the COVID-19 pandemic. Nevertheless, NSAs alone cannot achieve structural empowerment. Meaningful and lasting empowerment requires integrated approaches that address interconnected social, political, and cultural factors.

Using best-worst scaling to inform agroecological interventions in Western Kenya

Both the demand for food and the environmental impacts of food production are estimated to significantly increase by 2050. Agroecological interventions have proven effective in facilitating the transition from current food production systems to more sustainable ones. These interventions can not only ensure more equitable food and nutritional security but also address poverty and reduce environmental impacts. As such, agroecological interventions can generate both private and public ecosystem services. Farmers play a key role in how food is produced, as the practices they use are linked with their preferences and expertise, as well as the constraints they face. Understanding farmers’ preferences for the adoption of different agroecological practices and their perceptions of the associated costs and benefits is critical to informing policies that can effectively support farmers in transitioning to more sustainable practices, including those that contribute to the generation of ecosystem services highly valued by broader society. To assess such preferences, we conducted a survey among farmers in Western Kenya which included a best-worst scaling experiment augmented by qualitative questions about the reasons for farmers’ views about the importance of the benefits arising from agroecological practices. Results show that farmers have strong preferences for adopting agroecological practices that generate private goods and are directly related to increasing productivity and food security, including improving health of household members. These may also include practices that have some public good elements as well, such as increasing agrobiodiversity. However, practices that generate broader public good benefits, including improved forest quality/coverage, reduced off-farm environmental impacts, greater community-level resilience to shocks, and improved landscape and wildlife management, were less important to farmers. Such findings can be used to inform policies that support farmer adoption of agroecological interventions best suited to different farming communities, as well as indicating the need for additional types of market-based incentives, such as through Payments for Ecosystem Service mechanisms.

Outcome assessment of the digital agriculture ecosystem in Ethiopia

Ethiopia is making gradual but notable progress toward the digital transformation of its agricultural sector, driven by investments in connectivity, digital infrastructure, and cross-institutional coordination. Recent policy milestones have established an enabling foundation for scale, including the Digital Ethiopia 2025 and Digital Ethiopia 2030, personal data protection regulation and governance frameworks, and national roadmaps that will steer investment and implementation over the next decade—particularly the Digital Agriculture Extension and Advisory Services (DAEAS) roadmap and the Digital Agriculture Roadmap (DAR). However, persistent structural constraints such as limited rural internet coverage, low smartphone penetration, and unreliable electricity continue to shape the pace and equity of adoption. This paper synthesizes Ethiopia’s digital agriculture ecosystem with a focus on technology, data and analytical capacity, and policy environment. In the technology landscape, work is ongoing to develop decision-support applications alongside digital channels for delivering advisory services. Evidence from multiple pilot initiatives suggests these tools can expand outreach cost-effectively and improve the timeliness and relevance of agronomic guidance. The success of various pilot projects, along with valuable lessons from earlier efforts, strong government commitment, and supportive policies, has driven further investment in Ethiopia’s digital ecosystem. Nonetheless, substantial gaps remain in data availability and quality that limits the production of high-quality and context-specific advisory content. In addition, the reach and intensity of extension services needed to translate digital innovation into sustained productivity gains, income and livelihoods is not yet at the level desired. While Ethiopia’s digital agriculture agenda is well-positioned for accelerated scale, its impact will depend on resolving foundational constraints in last-mile connectivity, power reliability, and the institutions and pipelines required for trustworthy data and localized advisory at national scale.

Towards Inclusive Climate Information Services: What We Learned and What Comes Next: Experiences from AICCRA, 2021-2025

This InfoNote synthesizes lessons from the Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) program (2021–2025) on advancing gender-responsive and socially inclusive climate information services (CIS) across Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mali, Senegal, and Zambia. Drawing on implementation experience, research, and evaluation evidence, it examines how differences in gender, age, livelihood roles, and social position shape access to, use of, and benefits from climate information. The note highlights approaches that improve inclusivity and usability of CIS, including participatory co-production of advisory content, multi-channel delivery systems, gender-responsive extension services, and innovations such as gamification, inclusive artificial intelligence, and gender-responsive cost–benefit analysis. It also explores the role of community platforms, participatory scenario planning, and ag-data hubs in strengthening last-mile delivery and enabling more equitable decision-making. While these approaches demonstrate promising pathways to expand the reach and relevance of CIS, persistent barriers—including unequal access to resources, digital divides, and institutional coordination challenges—continue to limit the ability of women, youth, and marginalized farmers to act on climate information. The InfoNote concludes with recommendations for policymakers, researchers, and practitioners to institutionalize inclusive CIS systems, strengthen evidence and monitoring frameworks, and link climate information with complementary services that enable climate-informed action.

Sudan prices and availability monitoring survey (SPAMS): Methodology, coverage, and value addition

Sudan is facing profound economic and market disruptions driven by prolonged conflict, political instability, and severe macroeconomic deterioration. These shocks have substantially undermined agricultural production, disrupted supply chains, and weakened market functioning across the country. Agriculture, which remains central to livelihoods, food security, and economic activity in Sudan, has been particularly affected by infrastructure damage, population displacement, rising input and transport costs, and increasing fragmentation of markets. In this context, food availability and affordability have become highly volatile, with wide spatial disparities across states and localities.

Moving the technology frontiers in African agrifood systems: An analytical framework

The transformation of African agrifood systems stands as one of the most urgent and complex development challenges of the 21st century. With over 60 percent of the continent’s population relying on agriculture for their livelihoods, the sector holds tremendous potential to serve as a catalyst for broad-based economic growth, poverty alleviation, and food and nutrition security. This potential, however, remains largely untapped. Agricultural productivity across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) continues to stagnate; despite decades of reform efforts and policy commitments, it lags significantly behind other regions of the world (Ulimwengu et al. 2025).

Policy implementation is operational

Purpose
This article argues that policy implementation should be understood not as simple execution of policy intent, but as a fundamentally operational process. It seeks to frame implementation as the central arena of policy action and to identify the core operational forces that determine whether policies move from adoption to sustained delivery.

Design/methodology/approach
The article develops a conceptual framework grounded in field-based experience and informed by the concept of development readiness. It identifies four interdependent operational dimensions of implementation – activation cost, optionality, kinetics and negotiation – and applies this framework through comparative analysis of two cases: the successful institutional scaling of the UN World Food Programme’s (WFP) Cash and Voucher Policy adopted in 2008, and a counterfactual case of major implementation gaps in Kenya’s fertilizer subsidy program.

Findings
The analysis shows that successful implementation depends on deliberate investment in operational systems, including delivery infrastructure, organizational capability, coordination mechanisms and adaptive capacity. The WFP case illustrates how early activation investments, preserved optionality across delivery modalities, gradual kinetic scaling and continuous negotiation enabled a policy decision to evolve into a durable, systemwide operational capability. In contrast, Kenya’s fertilizer subsidy program demonstrates how high activation costs, weak kinetics, limited negotiation with key private-sector actors and low optionality can stall implementation despite strong political support and clear policy intent.

Research limitations/implications
Policy success is determined not at the moment of adoption, but at the point of operational readiness. Viewing implementation through an operational lens helps explain both success and failure and highlights why many well-designed and politically supported policies falter in practice.

Practical implications
The article concludes that to close the gap between policy on paper and policy in action, implementation itself must be treated as the core frontier of policy action, requiring sustained investment, learning, negotiation and time.

Originality/value
Its originality lies in offering a new four-dimensional operational framework and shifting the analytical focus from policy intent to the systems, capabilities and negotiations required to translate policy into sustained, systemwide action.

Advancing mechanization in African agrifood systems: Unlocking productivity and resilience

This chapter examines the role of mechanization in transforming African agrifood systems within the broader discourse on technological change, structural transformation, and sustainable development. The motivation is to address the persistent challenges of low productivity, rural poverty, labor shortages, and vulnerability to climate change that continue to constrain the agricultural sector across the continent.

Supply- and demand-side factors influencing uptake of anemia interventions: Systematic review of evidence from low-and-middle income countries

This Research Note summarizes findings from a systematic review that included published papers and reports from 27 low-and-middle income countries on barriers and facilitators to uptake of interventions to address anemia. The findings from this review, could inform programs and policies across sectors to strengthen delivery and uptake of interventions for reducing anemia.

Measuring collective agency in women's self-help groups: Comparing measurement approaches and practical guidance for scaling

Unpacking the political economy of fertilizer subsidy reforms

Global calls to repurpose agricultural support toward more sustainable and equitable food systems have intensified scrutiny of fertilizer subsidies. While political economy constraints often hinder reform, the exact manifestation of these constraints is rarely examined. To clarify the specific mechanisms at play, this paper systematically reviews peer-reviewed studies from 2000 to 2025 and identifies 38 fertilizer subsidy reform cases across 15 countries. We code political economy factors influencing outcomes at different stages of subsidy adoption and redesign. The analysis shows that ideational factors around self-sufficiency, the private sector, and the social contract, as well as the institutional structures impacting policymaking, are central to successful subsidy introduction. Electoral incentives play a role at both the policy introduction and redesign phases. Yet, political economy factors are not the only prominent drivers. In fact, technocratic considerations about underperformance or corruption became more prominent during redesign efforts but were also present in more than 80 percent of failed cases. This reaffirms that while technocratic factors, including the availability of research and evidence are necessary for subsidy design improvements, they are not sufficient on their own. By distinguishing which political economy factors matter and how they interact with broader policy process dynamics, this study provides a more actionable foundation for anticipating and managing challenges to fertilizer subsidy reforms and repurposing more broadly.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: November 2025

Sudan’s markets in November 2025 showed continued, albeit uneven, stabilization. Prices of most essential commodities remained broadly stable, supported by seasonal harvest effects and improved availability. Wheat prices increased modestly due to slightly lower availability, while sorghum prices remained low and stable. Prices of lentils and rice were largely unchanged, pigeon pea prices declined, and vegetable prices showed mixed trends with improvements in onion availability and quality. Oilseeds, sugar, cooking oil, and fava bean prices were generally stable or declining, despite persistent inter-state disparities. Meat prices continued to rise for lamb and beef, while chicken prices stabilized and milk prices declined.

Fuel prices stabilized following earlier volatility, with improved availability in regular markets, though parallel market prices remained high. Fertilizer prices were stable, but perceived availability declined. Exchange rate pressures persisted, marked by a widening gap between official and parallel rates. Market functioning improved, with fewer merchants reporting supply chain, financial, and liquidity constraints, and minimal challenges related to storage, power, labor, and market safety. Profitability stabilized, tax and fee payments increased further, and most merchants expect to maintain current trading levels, signaling cautious but stable market outlooks.

Impact evaluation of a solar powered drip irrigation intervention in eastern Yemen

Groundwater irrigation supports agricultural production and local food security in arid regions, however costs and accessibility of fuel for pumping are a challenge in conflict-affected contexts. Solar-powered drip irrigation technology can support smallholder farmers in such settings. In this study we estimated the impacts of subsidized solar-powered drip irrigation systems on smallholder farmers’ production decisions and household food security via a clustered randomized control trial in eastern Yemen. We found that farmers in the treatment group were significantly less likely to cultivate cereals, more likely to cultivate horticultural crops, and more likely to sell a higher share of their harvests at market during the first season post‑intervention. These results provide causal evidence on the impact of solar drip irrigation systems on shifting smallholder farmers’ crop production toward higher-value crops. We did not find significant impacts on household food security within the short-term post-intervention period that the analysis covered. These findings also provide preliminary support for investments in solar and drip irrigation technology in Yemen, while acknowledging that more research is needed to address potential negative externalities.

Inflation and diets among poor mothers in Egypt

Global food price increases and widespread inflationary shocks negatively affect poor households’ diets, particularly those of women who are more likely to be food insecure compared to men. This study evaluates the relationship between changes in food prices triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022 and poor mothers’ diets in Egypt, a country that heavily relies on imports of staple foods and is highly vulnerable to increases in international food prices. We combine food group specific governorate-level consumer price index (CPI) data with data on diets of 2,868 poor mothers in Egypt collected before and after the onset of the war. Additionally, we examine the potential protective effect of Egypt’s large-scale food subsidy program, Tamween, whereby specific foods are sold at subsidized prices at specific retailers. Using two-way fixed effects models, we find that changes in food prices are significantly associated with changes in the composition of mothers’ diets. Mothers were less likely to consume dairy and fish and more likely to consume pulses and sweetened beverages after the war began. Poor mothers decreased consumption of unsubsidized foods, suggesting a protective role of the Egyptian food subsidy program. This paper also provides suggestive evidence that poor mothers from households engaged in agricultural production could be slightly less responsive to changes in food prices compared to mothers from households that do not engage in agricultural production.

Diet & nutrition profile: Tanzania

Poor nutrition, suboptimal diets, and low fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake are key preventable risk factors for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) globally. From 2022 to 2024, the CGIAR Research Initiative on Fruit and Vegetables for Sustainable Healthy Diets (FRESH) designed and began implementation of an end-to-end approach to increase F&V intake and improve diet quality, nutrition, and health, while also enhancing livelihoods, empowering women and youth, and mitigating environmental impacts. Now under the CGIAR Science Program on Better Diets and Nutrition (BDN), implementation of the FRESH approach continues with the aim of addressing barriers to the desirability, affordability, accessibility, and availability of diverse, safe, and sustainable F&V in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Tanzania is one of the four original priority countries implementing this end-to-end approach to increase intake of F&V and other perishable nutrient-rich foods.

The aim of this brief is to describe the nutrition and diet landscape in Tanzania and highlight relevant programs, strategies and policies.

SAA's extension model: Scaling sustainable farming in Nigeria

In Nigeria, scaling agricultural innovations faces a major enabling environment challenge. This includes weak national extension systems, low extension officers-farmer ratios (1:1,800–1:3,000) and ineffective input-output market linkages, limiting technology adoption, and value addition for smallholders. The Sasakawa Africa Association (SAA) addressed this through its Value-Chain Based Extension (VCBE) Models, including Commodity Association Trader-Trainers and post-harvest centers, fostering public-private partnerships to build capacity, improve group dynamics, and create aggregation hubs. This innovative extension model has mobilized agricultural produce valued at approximately USD 3.9 million and delivered significant impact for smallholder farmers. The approach has doubled maize yields—from traditional levels of 2,438 kg/ha to 4,823 kg/ha—while enhancing incomes for more than 455,200 farmers. These outcomes are strengthening both food security and economic resilience across participating communities.

Small and medium enterprise development for climate adaptation and an inclusive food system in Egypt

Rural households in many low- and middle-income countries remain highly dependent on agriculture and related value chain activities, making them particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. As rising temperatures and increasing climate variability reduce agricultural productivity and income stability, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are increasingly promoted as a path toward rural development and the transformation of the agrifood systems (AFS). Yet, little is known about whether climate change influences rural households’ decision to start an enterprise to diversify or switch their income sources away from agriculture-related activities in order to adapt to weather risks. We address this research gap by drawing from nationally representative data from the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey 2023 and estimating a dynamic duration model to explore how heat stress is linked to households’ likelihood to start a (nonfarm) SME. Our findings offer new evidence for climate-responsive rural policy and SME support strategies in vulnerable regions.

Pakistan agri-food system: Assessment report

Despite agriculture’s central role in Pakistan’s economic growth, the sector continues to struggle with decades old structural issues and its performance is weak. Spending on subsidies for water, fertilizer, electricity, and wheat procurement reached US$1.25 billion in Punjab alone, far more than the funding provided for research and development. Inefficient and fragmented value chains, high post-harvest losses and transport costs, limited access to formal markets, dependence on subsidies, and underdeveloped storage and processing infrastructure are among the significant problems affecting agriculture. The deep-rooted traditional system, characterized by reliance on commission agents and the weak implementation of market reforms both restrict farmers’ bargaining power, especially for smallholder farmers. Moreover, although on average the country’s population is food secure in terms of caloric sufficiency, limited dietary diversity and inadequate access to nutritious foods cause widespread malnutrition.

Regardless of these issues, some positive changes have been introduced. The recent rollback of wheat procurement and the minimum support price policy presents both challenges and opportunities as long-sought reconsideration of crop choices and promotion of higher value or climate-resilient alternative crops now seems possible. Market reform under the Punjab Agriculture Marketing Regulatory Authority (PAMRA), created as an initiative of the World Bank’s SMART program, presents another opportunity, particularly as the notified areas for central markets have been dropped, creating an opening for more competition. Although implementation remains slow, the Authority has begun paving the way for market modernization. However, this transition must be supported by improvements in market access, development of an improved and well-managed storage network, and well-functioning price mechanisms to protect food security and farmer incomes.

In addition to the marketing, value addition, and productivity challenges identified above, climate change will also create constraints and challenges for agri-food development and transformation in Pakistan. The sector faces likely increases in extreme events, particularly flooding, as well as longer-run chronic effects of heat on yields and labor productivity in agriculture, rising salinity and land drying, and increasing crop water requirements even as other demands for water increase.

Breadwinner role and economic decision-making: Experimental evidence from Kenya

In several countries and settings, especially in low- and middle-income countries, men are expected to act as primary economic providers for their households, bearing the psychological and social burdens associated with this role. Despite its potential consequences, the effects of the breadwinner role on economic decision-making are understudied, particularly among poor households. This study investigates how gendered breadwinner expectations shape economic behavior in rural Kenya. Using a lab-in-the-field experiment among 400 smallholder farmers in Vihiga County, we test how psychological and social pressures associated with being the breadwinner of the family influence decision-making in both individual work choices and collective decisions. Participants completed a real-effort task choosing either a high-effort, high-reward option or a low-effort, low-reward alternative, followed by a public goods game framed around communal seed bank contributions. Results reveal that the heightened strain of the main breadwinner led male participants to reduce contributions to the communal seed bank by 0.2 standard deviations, while it did not affect their productivity in the real-effort task. These behavioral shifts suggest that the psychological consequences of breadwinner strain can undermine cooperation and the adoption of sustainable agriculture practices. Addressing the pressures of breadwinning can foster both economic resilience and social cohesion.

See it grow: A randomized evaluation of a digital innovation to improve crop insurance contract design

Insurance has great potential to increase productive investments, but agricultural insurance markets remain thin, in part because asymmetric information limits the viability of indemnity-based contracts. This paper evaluates a digital innovation—picture-based insurance (PBI)—that uses smartphone images of insured crops to indemnify crop damage. Through a cluster randomized trial in seven counties in Kenya, we compare subsidized PBI to subsidized weather index-based insurance (WBI) and to a control group offered unsubsidized WBI. We find that moving from index-based to indemnity-based insurance substantially increases take-up, particularly among women and farmers in drought-prone areas, indicating that innovations in contract design can broaden coverage in inclusive ways. Insurance coverage significantly increases fertilizer use in both treatments, confirming that uninsured risk constrains agricultural investment. However, despite higher take-up, PBI increases total fertilizer use as much as WBI. Using a Heckman selection model to correct for endogenous adoption, we show that this is not only due to incentive effects but also to multidimensional selection: PBI attracts farmers who, in the absence of insurance, would have invested less in fertilizer. After adjusting for this compositional change, differences in fertilizer use per farmer enrolled in WBI and PBI are not statistically significant. We conclude that higher take-up rates of digital indemnity-based insurance may not automatically translate into proportionally larger farm investments, but since increased coverage is concentrated among the relatively more vulnerable, it may contribute to complementary objectives such as inclusivity, equity, and resilience. Contract design and targeting, therefore, remain central to effective insurance product development.

Are food policies empowering women? Framework, measurement, and empirical evidence from India and Nigeria

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) emphasize equal participation and empowerment of women in all levels of decisionmaking, yet frameworks and tools to measure and strengthen women's empowerment in policy spaces remain limited. Focusing on agrifood systems, this paper introduces a framework, metrics, and scoring method to track women’s empowerment in policy processes (WEAGov) and presents findings from pilot applications in India and Nigeria. The pilots draw on novel surveys with more than 200 agrifood organizations and policy experts across the public sector, private sector, civil society, and research communities in both countries. Across both countries, we find that agrifood policy documents incorporate gender priorities on paper but fall short in budgeting, implementation, and evaluation. Prevailing social attitudes and limited awareness of policies, regulations, and legal rights remain major constraints on women’s ability to engage meaningfully in policy processes. Women participate as staff and mid-level managers in agrifood organizations, but their representation at higher decision-making levels are limited. Expert assessments also highlight disconnects between formal roles and the actual influence women can exert over policy decisions. Gender-responsive budgeting processes are absent in Nigeria and weakly-institutionalized in India, where compliance has become procedural rather than transformative. These patterns reveal persistent bottlenecks in translating gender commitments into practice. By systematically tracking barriers and identifying entry points for reform, the WEAGov framework offers governments, researchers, and civil society organizations a practical tool to diagnose gaps in women’s empowerment in agrifood policy processes and to strengthen their inclusiveness and accountability.

Improving the documentation and classification of gender-research tools: insights from eight thematic reviews

This synthesis paper analyses the landscape of gender-research tools and methods in agrifood systems by bringing together insights from eight thematic reviews developed under the CGIAR Gender Equality and Inclusion (GENDER Accelerator). The analysis highlights the wide range of tools and methods available for gender research in agrifood systems, while also identifying gaps in documentation, classification and dissemination. Drawing on lessons from the synthesis process, as well as a review of metadata best practices, this work underscores the need for clearer terminology, harmonized metadata and more consistent approaches to organizing gender-research tools. It also highlights the importance of adopting standard tagging practices and improving metadata quality and completeness to strengthen the visibility, interoperability and reuse of gender research resources across repositories and platforms. The paper discusses the challenges encountered in curating and categorizing diverse resources and emphasizes the importance of collaboration between researchers and knowledge management specialists to improve discoverability and reuse. The paper concludes with recommendations to strengthen future tool development, tagging and documentation practices to support more coherent, visible and methodologically robust gender research.

Economic Inclusion Program Cohort 2 in Kenya: Baseline Household Survey

This dataset consists of household-level data collected through a baseline survey conducted between April and May 2024 for the Impact Evaluation of the Economic Inclusion Programme (EIP), Cohort 2, in Kenya. The survey covers 3,251 households across four counties, Kisumu, Makueni, Muranga, and Taita Taveta, and was implemented by the Kenyan survey firm REMIT.

The EIP intervention package comprises four components: (i) monthly consumption support, (ii) asset grants to support income-generating activities, (iii) skills training paired with weekly mentoring, and (iv) the establishment of Village Savings and Loan Associations (VSLAs). The evaluation follows a cluster-randomized controlled trial (cRCT) design, in which villages were randomly assigned to treatment and control groups in a 2:1 ratio, with randomization stratified at the sub-county level.

The baseline household survey captures data on demographics, consumption and income, assets, financial inclusion, enterprise activities, food security, mental health, gender equity, social cohesion, and exposure to social protection programs. These data provide a detailed snapshot of household conditions prior to program implementation and enable rigorous impact evaluation, replication, and secondary research on economic inclusion, social protection, and poverty reduction in Kenya.

The impact of a nutrition-sensitive graduation model program on child nutrition: Experimental evidence from Ethiopia

Multifaceted graduation models are a promising strategy to sustainably reduce poverty, yet evidence on their effects on child undernutrition remains limited. This randomized controlled trial evaluated a nutrition-sensitive graduation model combining village economic and savings associations, peer-led behavior change communication, and maternal cash transfers (and for a subset, lump-sum livelihoods transfers) implemented among ultra-poor households in rural Ethiopia. The model without maternal cash transfers improved maternal nutrition knowledge and financial inclusion but did not generate meaningful changes in children’s diets or growth. Supplementing the pro-gram with maternal cash transfers produced at least moderate improvements in child diet quality, early childhood development, household consumption, and assets. The largest improvements in child growth occurred among households receiving both the livelihoods grant and maternal cash transfers. Overall, the results suggest that coupling behavior change communication and livelihoods support with sufficient financial support is critical for achieving meaningful progress in both economic well-being and child nutrition.

Internal displacement and the promotion of bundled agricultural technologies: Evidence from a fragile setting in Nigeria

Fragile regions within Nigeria face multiple, overlapping challenges including climate volatility, violent conflict, widespread displacement, and persistent malnutrition. These pressures can constrain agricultural production and compromise household welfare, particularly for internally displaced households, who face depleted assets and repeated exposure to shocks. Within the context of Nigeria, addressing these constraints requires interventions that improve access to agricultural technologies and strengthen food systems. This brief summarizes experimental evidence from Gombe State, Nigeria, where we implemented an intervention promoting the adoption of a bundle of agricultural technologies.

The intervention specifically disentangled the effects of price discounts and information campaigns on bundle adoption. We collected data on the use of each of the bundle components as well as the implementation of agronomic practices recommended for achieving agricultural intensification benefits, enabling us to document adoption beyond the initial purchase of the bundle in a detailed way. The bundle—which includes biofortified seeds, fertilizers, crop protection products, and weather-risk insurance—was designed to generate an intensification response among farmers and address micronutrient deficiencies among adopting households. In principle, biofortified crops—such as vitamin A maize and high-iron millet—offer a dual benefit: improved crop productivity and improved access to nutritious foods. While Nigerian agricultural policies encourage biofortification, sustained adoption remains limited, and existing studies overwhelmingly focus on peaceful and stable settings. We aim to addresses existing knowledge gaps by implementing a randomized control trial in Gombe State, Nigeria—a fragile and conflict-affected setting with a relatively large displaced population.

Existing evidence shows that bundled input packages, rather than interventions promoting a single agricultural input, can generate productivity gains associated with agricultural intensification. Adoption is often hindered by liquidity constraints, perceived risk, and weak extension systems. Moreover, displaced households can face additional barriers due to asset loss and insecure land tenure. This motivates us to specifically investigate whether displaced households respond differently to our intervention than households from the host population.

When the cure is worse than the disease: Acaricide use, tick resistance, and systemic constraints in Uganda’s dairy sector

The Ugandan dairy sector has expanded rapidly in recent years. However, ticks and tick-borne diseases pose increasing challenges to this progress, exacerbated by the rise in resistance to acaricides, the primary method for tick control. This paper examines the systemic constraints that undermine effective, safe, and sustainable tick control in Uganda’s liberalized dairy system. Drawing on multiple complementary data sources—including household surveys, exit interviews, list experiments, and covert audit methods—we show that the de facto farmer-led model of tick control is characterized by failures in information, coordination challenges, imperfect input markets, and weak regulation. Farmers operate with limited technical knowledge and minimal advisory support, and under extensive grazing systems and frequent inter-herd contact that require coordinated approaches to tick control. Input markets provide access to acaricides, but little guidance on proper use. As a result, misuse and overuse of chemicals are widespread, generating risks for animal and human well-being, food safety, and environmental integrity. Addressing these constraints will require integrated interventions that strengthen extension and regulatory capacity, improve accountability in veterinary input markets, and foster community-level coordination to ensure safe and sustainable tick control.

Synopsis: The changing demographics in Nigeria’s food systems and implications for future youth engagement

Food systems (FS) are critically important in sub-Sahara Africa (SSA), where they account for a significant share of the GDP and employment. FS transformation is both strongly influenced by and strongly influences employment and job creation. This study documents FS employment in the past two decades observed in Nigeria, focusing on changes in demographic structure and inclusiveness. Key findings of the study are:

FS in Nigeria are poised for significant transformation driven by demographic shifts, urbanization, income growth, and a favorable policy environment, while the conflict adversely affects this transformation. Agricultural employment declined significantly during the period, while the share of nonfarm agrifood sectors in total employment almost tripled, signaling major structural transformation. Employment in food manufacturing expanded rapidly, albeit from a lower base, with women's share among the fastest growing. Women’s share in nonfarm agrifood system (AFS) employment tripled over the period, while youth participation quadrupled. However, Nigeria’s youth face persistent barriers. Youth unemployment is double the national rate and their labor force participation is considerably below the average rate. The nonfarm AFS employment share in Nigeria far exceeds the continental average, positioning Nigeria ahead in AFS transformation. Policy recommendations from the study include providing targeted youth training and financing for nonfarm AFS roles; closing gender gaps through resource access and supportive regulations; investing in marketing infrastructure; prioritizing recovery and job programs in conflict zones; and adopting a holistic FS approach that also engenders the active involvement of women and youth.

Closing the regulatory gap: Experimental evidence on oversight and worker incentives

Weak enforcement of regulatory standards is widespread in low- and middle-income countries. Low firm capacity and standards inappropriate to local contexts imply that traditional punitive enforcement approaches may be counterproductive. We test the impact of a regulatory oversight intervention leveraging the soft power of meat inspectors in the context of 140 rural slaughterhouses in western Kenya. The intervention focused meat inspector attention on hygiene practices and was combined with training of workers and provision of basic equipment and supplies. Practices improved significantly relative to control facilities, but microbial contamination of meat did not. Outcomes were similar in a subset of treatment facilities where workers were additionally given a hygiene performance incentive. Higher volume of business in treatment facilities, which customers perceived as cleaner, suggests that retailers value less contaminated meat, but may counteract the effects of improved practices through cross-contamination and crowding.

Targeting of beneficiaries in chemical fertilizer subsidy programs: State of knowledge and evidence gaps

Low and middle income countries have been facing mounting pressure from lenders and donors to eliminate or reform fertilizer subsidy programs, which can have distortionary market effects and negative environmental externalities. However, there is little systematic work understanding who these programs currently benefit both in theory and in practice, and hence who may be affected by policy reform. In this paper, we identify low and middle countries with active fertilizer subsidy programs, and characterize the targeting regime of each program based on both explicit and implicit criteria determining eligibility. Then in a selection of case studies, we explore which individuals are receiving subsidy benefits in practice. We find that while many fertilizer subsidy programs are meant to be universal, there are are additional implicit targeting criteria and/or informal targeting induced by supply shortfalls in many countries. Further, we find evidence that regardless of targeting regime, fertilizer subsidies are generally progressive, though this seems to be driven by the fact that the poor are often concentrated in the agricultural sector.

Strategic plan of the IFPRI program on fragile and conflict-affected food systems (FCAS): 2026-2029

Humanitarian crises are becoming more frequent, protracted, and complex. Fragility, conflict, climate extremes, and displacement increasingly converge to undermine food security, disrupt livelihoods, and erode community resilience across dozens of countries. In these settings, humanitarian actors face enormous pressure to deliver assistance in ways that are timely, inclusive, accountable, and aligned with the needs and priorities of affected populations. Further, governments demand evidence on what policies, programming, and other investments can support prevention, recovery, and resilience. In the current funding environment, global humanitarian financing is stretched thinner than ever, making improvements in effectiveness, efficiency, and quality of humanitarian actions all the more urgent.

The IFPRI Program on Fragile and Conflict-Affected Food Systems (FCAS) responds to these challenges by generating practical, policy-relevant evidence on what works to support food security and resilience in FCAS, with a focus on who benefits, under what conditions, and at what cost. Through long-standing engagement in countries such as Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Mali, Mozambique, Myanmar, Sudan, Papua New Guinea, Somalia, and Yemen, the Program supports governments, UN agencies, International Non-Governmental Organizations (INGOs), and local NGOs to strengthen food systems in fragile contexts and improve outcomes for crisis-affected children, women, households, and communities.

To make the Program’s rigorous research and evidence generation effective, it relies on deep partnership, local engagement, and a commitment to translating evidence into real-world change. Its work spans crisis anticipation and prevention; monitoring and crisis response; and recovery and resilience. It also considers two key cross-cutting areas: governance and accountability; and gender equality and inclusion. Across all of these areas, the Program advances locally-led approaches and elevates the voices and leadership of affected populations.

IFPRI’s institutional strategy and its four-pronged approach to research and impact guide the Program; its work in FCAS aims to: (1) position major development challenges on policy agendas, (2) build scalable high-impact solutions, (3) strengthen governance and financing mechanisms, and (4) deploy tools, methods, and capabilities for research and policy impact. The Program supports humanitarian systems reform by generating new evidence on effective program design features; exploring means of strengthening governance and social inclusion; and supporting coordination across humanitarian, development, and peace actors. This Strategic Plan outlines how the Program operates, what it contributes, and how it sustains a unique role for IFPRI within the global humanitarian ecosystem.

Urban Food Environments and Diets (UFED) dietary assessment guidance

This guidance document is linked to the UFED web tool and meant to be shared in conjunction with use of an online decision-making tool for planning dietary and food environment assessments in urban and peri-urban areas.

Included documents:
24-Hour Recall

Diet Quality Questionnaire

Food Frequency Questionnaire

Global Diet Quality Score

Observed Weighted Food Record

Show me the money! Experimental evidence on preferences for cash vs. digital payment

In places such as rural Bangladesh, cash is the dominant medium for payments despite potential benefits of digital payments. We offer survey respondents an incentive-compatible choice for compensation: 200 Taka cash or randomly varied mobile money amounts (200-400 Taka). Only eight percent chose digital payment at parity and respondents exhibit an average willingness-to-pay of 43 percent of the payment value to receive cash payment. This preference persists across demographics, including among mobile money account holders. Within-household analysis reveals that 77 percent of the effect stems from individual-level rather than household-level factors, highlighting the importance of demand-side barriers on digital payments.

Urban Food Environments and Diets (UFED) food environment assessment guidance

This guidance document is linked to the UFED web tool and meant to be shared in conjunction with use of an online decision-making tool for planning dietary and food environment assessments in urban and peri-urban areas.

Included documents:
Community and Market Mapping

In-Depth Vendor Assessment - Food Availability

In-Depth Vendor Assessment – Food Costs and Affordability

Food and Beverage Promotion

Bridging the information gap: How Munda Makeover is transforming agricultural learning in Zambia

This project note presents midline findings regarding the effects of Munda Makeover (MMO), a farm makeover TV show designed to disseminate agricultural knowledge to Zambian farmers in an entertaining way. IFPRI and partners designed and implemented a cluster randomized trial across 160 villages involving two main interventions: village screenings of MMO episodes, combined with weekly SMS reminders to watch the show; and agricultural roadshows or input fairs. Results from a phone survey with 976 farmers show that community screenings and SMS reminders significantly increased viewership and knowledge around innovations promoted in the TV show. However, the uptake of agricultural inputs sold during the roadshows remains limited, largely due to liquidity constraints. These findings offer critical insights for optimizing the delivery of agricultural extension content through mass media and improving farmers’ access to agricultural inputs.

Updating yield growth rates in the IMPACT model to enhance global analysis of the future of agriculture

Changes in yields of food commodities are key drivers—and consequences—of changes in agriculture and food systems. Simulation models used to explore the future of agriculture require initial assumptions about baseline levels and changes in yields as a starting point and then can be used to analyze how those yields are affected by the dynamic interaction between changes in demand, markets, technology, climate and other factors. This paper reports on how critical initial yield assumptions have recently been reviewed and updated in the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT). This paper is aimed at a technical audience interested in core details of the IMPACT modeling framework and is a follow-up to the latest full model documentation (Robinson et al 2024).

IMPACT was developed at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) at the beginning of the 1990s to address a lack of long-term vision and consensus among policymakers and researchers about the actions necessary to feed the world in the future, reduce poverty, and protect the natural resource base. Over time, this economic model has been expanded and improved, and IMPACT is now a system of linked models around a core multimarket economic model of global production, trade, demand, and prices for agricultural commodities. IMPACT supports integrated analysis of the implications of physical, biophysical, and socioeconomic trends and phenomena, allowing for varied and in-depth analysis on a variety of key issues of interest to policymakers. As a flexible policy analysis tool, IMPACT has been used to research linkages between agricultural production and food security at the national and regional levels. IMPACT also has been used in commodity-level scenario analyses and has contributed to thematic and interdisciplinary scenario-based projects. IMPACT is one of major global models of the agriculture sector, but because of its high level of commodity and geographic disaggregation, it plays a particularly important role in analyzing patterns of agricultural productivity growth around the world.

Potential commodity yields are key drivers in the IMPACT baseline scenario and an important lever influenced by investment and policy scenarios. The baseline assumptions about exogenous growth in crop and livestock yields are referred to in IMPACT as “intrinsic productivity growth rates” (IPRs). This paper describes the approach developed to review and update the IPRs to reflect recent trends and incorporate expert1 opinion, making the yield projections more transparent, inclusive, and efficient, and more consistent across CGIAR centers, improving projections and enhancing policy relevance. The remaining sections include a description of the IMPACT Model, the methods for updating the IPRs using projections based on FAOSTAT data and expert consultations, the findings related to the IPRs from each of the expert consultations, and a description of the process used to incorporate the findings from the consultations into IMPACT and concludes with discussion. A description of the Power BI tool used to support the expert consultations is presented in Appendix A.

Digital tool integration, biodiversity, and the potato value chain in Kenya: Results from a baseline survey

Potato farmers in Kenya grapple with various challenges along the value chain, including limited access to quality planting materials such as seeds and fertilizers, insufficient storage and postharvest handling facilities, fluctuating market prices, and unreliable market information systems. For women and youth, these challenges are further exacerbated by persistent social gaps in the agriculture sector. Digital tools can play a vital role in addressing these challenges by providing access to valuable agricultural information, weather forecasts, and best practices that help farmers make informed decisions and improve crop management. However, challenges persist in digital tool adoption within agricultural value chains in sub-Saharan Africa. This study assesses the impact of digital tool adoption and support on socioeconomic and agriculture-related outcomes in Kenya’s potato value chain. It piggybacks on an ongoing digital tool integration program, Business Development and Coaching (BDEC), conducted by the Farm to Market Alliance (FtMA), which targets agripreneurs in Farmer Service Centers (FSCs). By comparing a treatment group that receives this training with a control group continuing business as usual, the study evaluates the effects of agripreneurs’ adoption and expanded use of digital tools on farmers’ agriculture based livelihoods, income generation, and job creation metrics, with a focus on youth employment and gender disparities.

IFPRI’s research in fragile and conflict-affected settings

IFPRI’s research provides partners with support through a wide range of evidence and products: Decision-support tools spanning all phases of crisis and conflict: anticipating and preventing risks before they escalate, monitoring and responding during acute crises, and supporting long-term recovery and resilience. Context-relevant evidence on policies, programming, and interventions to address the unique challenges faced by FCAS—relevant for governments, UN agencies, NGOs, and other partners. Rapid-response policy support to address emerging challenges. Best-practice guidance for conflict-sensitive, gender-responsive policy designs.

Scaling Fund Report 2025

The CGIAR Scaling Fund is a strategic financing and technical support mechanism designed to bridge the gap between innovation development and impact at scale by combining flexible funding with tailored, hands-on scaling support. Anchored in CGIAR’s commitment to responsible and demand-driven scaling, the Fund supports innovation teams to translate research outputs into context-specific solutions with measurable benefits, while anticipating and mitigating social and environmental risks. In 2025, the Fund supported eight innovation teams across six CGIAR science programs, five CGIAR centers, and 11 countries through a dual structure comprising the competitive Scaling Challenge and the flexible Needs-Driven Support window, complemented by a strategic partnership with ENABEL. Now in its third year, the Scaling Fund continues to embed scaling science into practice, strengthen partnerships, and advance equitable, sustainable impact at scale.

Kenya: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Kenya’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. Investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) processors, irrigation, and seed subsidy are shown to be the most cost-effective at driving improvements in social outcomes, like poverty and undernourishment. They are also highly ranked in terms of expanding agrifood GDP and employment. Expansion in extension and advisory services for seeds and agronomy as well as improvements in seed systems also rank high. However, many cost-effective investments have relatively high environmental footprints, which highlights potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options overtime and when extreme production shocks occur.

From commitment to delivery: Implementation as the frontier for CAADP 3.0

Africa enters the third phase of CAADP under the Kampala Declaration—CAADP 3.0—at a moment of profound possibility and significant stress. A young population, urban growth, technological adoption, and vibrant entrepreneurial systems are powerful drivers of agrifood innovation and transformation. Simultaneously, the continent’s agrifood systems are being shaped by intensifying climate shocks, constrained fiscal positions, fragile macroeconomic conditions, political volatility, and persistent conflict and displacement. These pressures are deepening hunger and undermining livelihoods across large regions. Importantly, Africa has accumulated considerable institutional knowledge and practical experience in policy formulation, planning, and cross-sector coordination. Governments, farmer organizations, regional bodies, and development partners understand the challenges facing the agrifood sector with far greater precision than in earlier CAADP cycles.

The Kampala Declaration reflects this maturity. It is not simply another policy statement; it is a political signal that Africa intends to convert aspirations into meaningful, sustained action. The challenge is no longer conceptual clarity. The challenge is implementation. For CAADP 3.0 to fulfill its promise, countries must strengthen their ability to deliver consistently, at scale, and under difficult and rapidly changing conditions. This brief outlines the nature of that challenge and proposes a structured way to approach it, drawing from the November 2025 IFPRI webinar on strategic priorities for CAADP implementation.

Bridging Nigeria’s fertilizer supply-demand gap for agricultural transformation

Nigeria’s fertilizer sector exhibits a persistent disconnect between national supply and farm-level use. Despite rapid growth in domestic production and increased private-sector participation, fertilizer adoption among smallholder farmers remains among the lowest in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper examines the key drivers of Nigeria’s fertilizer supply–demand imbalance and its implications for agricultural transformation. Using national statistics, market data, and policy reviews, it identifies persistent barriers – including high distribution costs, inconsistent government policies, weak extension systems, limited credit access, and poor product quality – that constrain effective fertilizer use. It also assesses how export-oriented incentives and underdeveloped domestic markets influence local availability and pricing. The findings show that expanding production alone is insufficient to achieve meaningful agricultural change. Coordinated market reforms, stronger regulatory enforcement, improved delivery mechanisms, and targeted support to smallholder farmers are needed to improve affordability, access, and agronomic efficiency. The paper concludes with policy recommendations aimed at better aligning the fertilizer sector with Nigeria’s long-term goals for productivity growth and food system resilience.

The impact of genetically modified cowpea on yields, postharvest losses, and profitability in Nigeria: Findings from a cluster randomized controlled trial

We assess the impacts of a genetically modified pod borer-resistant (PBR) cowpea variety in Nigeria through a cluster randomized controlled trial conducted in two major cowpea-cultivating states. Our design allows us to examine the impacts of PBR cowpea with and without a package of complementary inputs (fertilizer and insecticides) and in comparison to farmers who received only a conventional improved cowpea variety. Results indicate that farmers who received and planted PBR cowpea experienced significant increases in yield (21 percent) and net margins (49 percent) compared to those growing the conventional variety, with larger gains observed among those provided with the inputs package. Analysis of heterogeneous effects indicates substantial variation in outcomes based on baseline characteristics such as household size, landholding, pest control practices, and wealth. Estimation of group average treatment effects and classification analysis using a causal machine learning approach identify plot size, pesticide use, and assets as key drivers of impact heterogeneity. Findings highlight the need for targeted dissemination strategies to realize the sizable benefits of PBR cowpea for small-scale, resource-constrained farmers.

Mozambique: Cost effective options for inclusive and sustainable development

In this policy brief, we present findings of a systematic evaluation and ranking of investment options for Mozambique’s agrifood system based on their cost-effectiveness in achieving multiple development outcomes, including agrifood gross domestic product (GDP) growth, agrifood job creation, poverty reduction, declining undernourishment, and lowering diet deprivation. Additionally, the study assesses their environmental footprint, focusing on water consumption, land use, and emissions. In Mozambique, investments in small and medium enterprise (SME) processors and traders are identified as the most cost-effective means of enhancing social outcomes, such as poverty reduction and addressing undernourishment. They are also highly ranked in accelerating agrifood GDP and employment. Moreover, extension services for livestock and agronomy, rural road infrastructure, and post-harvest losses reduction are also highly ranked. However, many of these cost-effective investments come with relatively high environmental footprints, which highlight potential tradeoffs. The study further reveals shifts in the cost-effectiveness ranking of investment options over time and marginally so in the presence of extreme production shocks.

The landscape of youth engagement in labor markets in Africa: Are youth driving structural transformation?

This paper assesses the landscape and evolution of youth engagement in labor markets in Africa, focusing on three important countries—Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria—which together account for 40 percent of Africa’s youth population. We also examine whether Africa’s youth are driving structural transformation. To do so, we combine nationally representative data and surveys spanning more than two decades (from the 1990s to the 2020s). We situate the analysis within the region’s pressing youth unemployment challenge, where annual labor-force entrants surpass job creation. Our findings show that, despite substantial heterogeneities across countries, largely due to sectoral composition of economies, youth remain engaged in agriculture almost as much as adults. While labor continues to gradually shift out of agriculture, it has moved overwhelmingly into services rather than industry, reinforcing the unique pattern of structural transformation in Africa. More importantly, exit rates from agriculture are similar for youth and adults, except in Ethiopia, where youth are leaving agriculture at slightly higher rates than adults. In Ethiopia and Kenya, the entry rate into services is higher among young women, while entry into industry is higher among young men, suggesting distributional and equity implications of Africa’s ongoing structural transformation. These findings offer important insights and challenge simplistic views that youth are leaving agriculture in “droves” as well as the sometimes-embroidered perceptions of their role in that transformation. We discuss the implications of these findings for sustaining inclusive employment opportunities and argue that agriculture should remain central to job creation efforts in Africa.

Reforming agrifood system subsidies: Synthesis of political economy findings from fish, fertilizer, and animal inputs

Subsidies are price distortions aimed at shifting incentives to generate a desired behavioral response. Agrifood system input subsidies aim to reduce the cost of components—such as fertilizer, fuel, animal feeds, vessels, and machinery—needed by farmers, fisherfolk, ranchers, and pastoralists to improve productivity. Such subsidies may occur in multiple forms, including vouchers that enable beneficiaries to receive a discount, a direct reduction in input retail prices borne by the state or distributors, or through tax reductions and exemptions. The cost of agricultural subsidies, inclusive of fertilizer subsidies, are estimated at USD 635 billion a year (Damania et al. 2023) while fisheries subsidies, including for fuel, fisheries management, and non-fuel tax exemptions, are estimated to total approximately USD 35 billion (Sumaila et al. 2019). While they can support poorer constituencies in the agrifood system who could not otherwise afford such inputs, subsidies can be prone to corruption and leakage to elites, generate negative environmental externalities, and place undue pressure on public sector finances (Amaglobeli, Benson, and Mogues 2024; Damania et al. 2023; Jayne et al. 2018). In addition, they can generate distributional conflicts among different constituencies—both within countries and across countries—and these conflicts can undermine program implementation as well as hinder needed reforms.

The role of fertilizer trade in enhancing food security in Africa

A comprehensive approach to understanding the relationship between food security and trade must include the trade and accessibility of agricultural inputs. Fertilizers (organic and mineral) are crucial for delivering essential nutrients to crops, significantly boosting agricultural productivity and, in turn, enhancing food security. Increased fertilizer use can help make food more available and affordable by generating higher crop yields, lowering farmers’ production costs, and increasing supply. In addition, by achieving higher crop yields on the same land area, fertilizers can reduce the need to expand agricultural land, helping to prevent deforestation.

Social safety nets for a nutrition-sensitive food system in South Asia: Lessons from India

Social protection programs in South Asia are essential for addressing poverty, undernutrition, and food insecurity but are constrained by limited coverage and weak implementation capacity. • India’s expansive welfare architecture — spanning food, nutrition, health, and livelihoods — and its political economy (genesis, design, and effectiveness) offer critical lessons for the region. • Maternal and child-related social protection must prioritize the nutritional content of food over calorie sufficiency. • Digital tools, critical to improving welfare delivery, must avoid the risk of exclusion through decentralization and stronger bureaucratic accountability. • Social protection must be framed as part of an economic security “system” and not treated as stand-alone schemes.

Harvesting change: The impact of climate change on Africa’s agriFood systems

Africa is one of the most exposed continents to climate change. While global temperature has risen by 0.2°C per decade since 1991, in Africa the rate is faster, reaching 0.3°C (WMO 2022). Yet Africa contributes only modestly to climate change. Indeed, the continent emits 7 times less greenhouse gas compared to Europe and 15 times compared to North America (IPCC, 2023). In addition to rising temperatures, climate change affects Africa through several channels, including an increase in ocean levels, variations in precipitations (droughts and heavy rains), plant pests and animal diseases. Climate change is also expected to contribute to a significant reduction in arable land in the continent (IPCC, 2023). The new CAADP strategy and action plan for 2026-2035 recognizes that Africa is the hardest hit by climate change and that the phenomenon is one of the major threats to Africa’s agricultural systems and food security in the coming years.

All of these changes will affect agricultural production, a major challenge for Africa, as African economies and livelihoods remain heavily dependent on agriculture. Agriculture still represents 16% of Africa GDP with contributions ranging from 3% in Southern Africa to 25% in the eastern part of the continent. Due to the low level of labor productivity in agriculture, the sector’s contributions to total employment are higher than those of other sectors. By inducing structural changes in agricultural production, climate change will also affect trade flows by shifting comparative advantages between and within continents. Prices will also be affected. This Policy Brief i shows how Africa’s agricultural production and trade patterns are altered by climate change. It highlights the large impacts of climate change on agricultural production, reinforcing results from other work. It shows that the impacts on prices compound the production impacts on African economies and people given many countries in the region are net importers. However, the work also shows that there are substantial differences across the region in the size of the impacts.

The rice value chain in Africa

Rice is both a strategic commodity and a staple food in most African countries. It is the second most important source of dietary energy in the region, after maize, providing 9 percent of human calorie intake (van Oort 2023). In many countries, particularly in West Africa, per capita consumption exceeds 100 kg/year (FAO 2024), putting Africa second only to Asia. Due to the combined effects of population growth, changing diets, urbanization, and income growth in Africa, rice demand is now growing at 6 percent annually, faster than any other staple food (AfricaRice, n.d.), and projected to increase significantly in the next decade. By 2034, Africa is likely to be the largest importing region globally, despite increasing intraregional trade (FAO 2025).

Intra-African agricultural trade and implications for domestic food security

The 21st century ushered in a renewed sense of optimism regarding Africa’s economic prospects. With a rapidly growing population, a burgeoning consumer market, and vast agricultural potential, the continent stands at a pivotal juncture. Central to this narrative of transformation is the agenda for regional integration, championed by the African Union’s landmark African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). While the AfCFTA does not have a standalone protocol dedicated solely to agriculture or food security, these sectors are encompassed within the Protocol on Trade in Goods, which addresses tariff concessions, nontariff barriers, and rules of origin applicable to agricultural products. Officially operationalized in 2021, the AfCFTA aims to create a single market for goods and services, facilitating the free movement of businesspersons and investments, and ultimately paving the way for a continental customs union.1 Its primary objective is to significantly boost intra-African trade, which has historically languished at dismally low levels. Compared to Europe and North America, where intraregional trade represents a significant share of overall commerce, Africa’s internal level of trade remains markedly lower (UNCTAD 2021). This discrepancy is not merely a trade statistic; it reflects deep-seated structural issues with profound implications for one of the continent’s most pressing challenges: food security.

Africa in global agricultural trade and food security: Recent trends

Africa’s agricultural trade was largely shaped by the colonial division of the continent in the 19th century, when the agriculture of several African regions was transformed into monocrop, export-oriented sectors that catered to the growing European demand for food, luxury products such as chocolate, and manufacturing inputs such as rubber and cotton (Bjornlund et al. 2020; Akyeampong 2017). This shift occurred at the expense of the domestic agricultural diversity and intra-African trade complementarity that had long ensured food security, and continued even after African countries gained their independence. Several African governments pursued agricultural policies similar to those of colonial times and focused on the export of a few crops to generate sufficient revenue to fund their industrialization and development plans. Between 1966 and 1973, for instance, nearly one-half of sub-Saharan African governments depended on the export of a single commodity to secure 50 percent of their export revenues (Bjornlund et al. 2020). This concentration had two negative repercussions on food security: (1) increased vulnerability to fluctuations in global commodity prices; and (2) decreased local and traditional food production, which threatened the availability of food for the growing African population.

Synopsis: Unlocking agricultural efficiency: A stochastic frontier analysis of smallholder farmers in Rwanda

This study assesses the technical efficiency of smallholder farmers in Rwanda, with a focus on maximizing crop output value and identifying the socioeconomic drivers that shape technical efficiency.