Discussion Papers

× Sustainable agrifood systems (AFS) provide food security and nutrition without compromising economic, social, and environmental objectives. However, many AFS generate substantial unaccounted for environmental, social, and health costs. True cost accounting (TCA) is one method that adds direct and external costs to find the “true cost” of food production, which can inform policies to reduce externalities or adjust market prices. We find that for Kenya— considering the entire food system, including crops, livestock, fishing, and value addition sectors at the national level—external costs represent 35 percent of the output value. Social costs account for 73 percent of the total external costs, while environmental costs are 27 percent. In contrast, in Viet Nam, where total external costs represent 15 percent of the output value, the environmental costs (75 percent) dominate social costs. At the subnational level, in the three Kenyan counties (Kisumu, Vihiga, and Kajiado) covered by the CGIAR Research Initiative on Nature-Positive Solutions (NATURE+), external costs (or the true cost gap) represent about 30 percent of all household crop production costs. Those external costs are overwhelmingly dominated by social (84 percent) over environmental (16 percent) externalities. In Viet Nam's Sa Pa and Mai Son districts, external costs represent about 24 percent of all household crop production costs. Environmental externalities (61 percent) are greater than social ones (39 percent). In Kenya, forced labor is the main social (and overall) external impact driven by factors ranging from "less severe" financial coercion to "more severe" forms of physical coercion. Land occupation is the most important environmental impact, resulting from occupation of lands for cultivation rather than conservation, while underpayment (low wages) and low profits are important social costs that are closely associated with the prevailing gender wage gap and occurrence of harassment. Soil degradation is the only other environmental impact, linked with the use of inorganic fertilizers (60 percent of households) and pesticides (36 percent). In Viet Nam, land occupation is the most important external impact, followed by soil degradation and contributions to climate change, primarily due to widespread use of inorganic fertilizers (98 percent of households) and pesticides (93 percent). Underpayment and insufficient income are significant social costs, followed by the gender wage gap and child labor. Crop production systems in Kenya exhibit relatively high labor-related costs compared with nonlabor inputs, with relatively lower intensity in the use of inorganic fertilizer and other chemical inputs and lower crop yields. This production system leads to relatively greater social externalities. Conversely, crop yields in Viet Nam are significantly higher than those in Kenya, likely due to the extensive use of inorganic fertilizers representing the largest direct cost component and leading to a relatively higher level of environmental externalities. Because external costs represent a significant part of the total cost of food production, policy and investments to minimize these costs are essential to a nature-positive AFS that is environmentally sustainable and socially equitable. Strategies to reach this goal include regulatory adjustments, investments in resource efficient infrastructure and technologies that minimize costs, and the prudent management of environmentally impactful production inputs and factors.

× One of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is reducing food loss and waste (FLW) across all stages of food value chains, including the on-farm production, the off-farm postharvest, processing, and distribution, and the household consumption stages. We employ general equilibrium models for Bangladesh, Kenya, and Nigeria to assess the economywide implications of reducing FLW at different stages of value chains. Halving FLW results in GDP increases of between 1.1 and 2 percent, with up to 13 million people lifted out of poverty across the three countries. Diets also improve – especially in Kenya and Nigeria – due to greater availability and lower prices of healthy foods such as fruits and vegetables. Although most of the gains originate from reducing FLW in the on-farm production stage, strong intersectoral linkages mean around 30 percent of measured GDP gains are realized in non-agricultural sectors. Reducing waste at the final consumption stage has small negative impacts on GDP as households purchase less food without reducing their food intake. We conclude that the significant economywide gains provide a justification for adopting FLW reduction strategies, although costing the policy and investment options needed to reduce FLW is an important area for future research.

× Low- and middle-income countries worldwide share the common challenge of achieving sustainable economic development while reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This challenge is complex due to the interconnectedness of economic activities, where policies targeting one industry can have ripple effects on others. Therefore, it is crucial to understand integrated GHG emissions and their relationships across industries within an economy to inform effective policy formulation. Kenya, as a middle-income country experiencing rapid economic growth, faces an urgent need to address this challenge. This study analyzes the economic relationships between agricultural production, the food industry, and other sectors of the economy in Kenya to identify key drivers of national GHG emissions from the food system. To accomplish this, an environmentally extended input-output (EEIO) table is employed to calculate both direct and indirect emissions for 38 activities of Kenya’s economy, as well as emissions embodied in final goods. Direct emissions refer to those generated during the production process of an activity, while indirect emissions are produced by other activities that provide inputs to the activity of interest. The findings reveal that agriculture is the largest contributor to GHG emissions in Kenya, with the majority of emissions stemming from direct sources such as enteric fermentation and manure management in livestock production. Additionally, the study finds that total emission intensity in the manufacturing sector is considerably higher than in most agricultural activities, except for livestock production, primarily due to the significant level of indirect emissions associated with manufacturing processes. Within the agricultural sector, cereals and livestock production exhibit high levels of direct emissions, while export crops like coffee and tea, as well as vegetable cultivation, show relatively higher indirect emissions. Addressing GHG emissions from the livestock sector emerges as a crucial step in significantly reducing agricultural emissions in Kenya. The dairy sub-sector presents an opportunity for intensification and technological advancements, as climate-smart technologies have already demonstrated their potential to enhance productivity while reducing emissions. Conversely, mitigating GHG emissions in beef production, which is primarily concentrated in ecologically fragile areas, will require institutional innovations focusing on rangeland management, disease control, and scaling up livestock marketing efforts. While the intensification of dairy production can contribute to agricultural growth and development in Kenya, its impact on mitigating GHG emissions is expected to be limited at the national scale.

× This research was undertaken to characterise the level and distribution of aflatoxin contamination of maize flour, a key food safety concern in Kenya. More than 1,200 samples of maize flour were collected and analyzed over the course of one year, allowing a robust characterization of relative risk across geography and product type. Informally milled flour was found to be significantly more contaminated than branded flour, a result attributable to the refining process applied to this flour. The results of this study can be used to inform messaging to consumers about the relative riskiness of informally versus formally milled flour, and for geographical targeting of resources for aflatoxin mitigation.

× Smallholder farmers in low- and medium-income countries lack sufficient access to agricultural production credit that can help them adopt new technologies and improve their farm production. Compared to men, women smallholder farmers face additional social, and economic barriers that further limit their credit access. Bundling agricultural credit with insurance, or risk contingent credit (RCC), provides a mechanism for addressing some of the credit access constraints and reducing credit rationing among smallholder farmers. In this paper, we evaluate the gendered determinants of credit rationing and the gender differences of the effects of RCC innovation on credit uptake decisions. We use three-wave panel data from a randomized control trial (RCT) in Kenya. We find that female-headed households (FHH) are significantly more risk rationed (or demand-side credit constrained) compared to male-headed households (MHH), however, the gender of the household head does not significantly determine the household quantity rationing status (supply-side constrained). We also find that farmers randomly assigned to be offered the RCC are up to four percent more likely to take up credit. RCC’s impacts on credit uptake decisions do not vary with the gender of the household head, however, RCC has a differential positive and significant impact on the credit uptake decisions of farmers that were previously (at baseline) risk rationed. Based on these findings, we suggest that policies should focus on reducing gendered demand-side barriers to credit access, especially among poorer women households. Climate financing innovations such as RCC should also be designed and delivered in a gender-inclusive manner to accommodate women farmers who face time, liquidity, and financial literacy barriers.

× Innovation spaces are often dominated by linear, top-down approaches, with the transfer of technology being seen as the solution to many problems rather than trying to understand which innovation processes people are engaging with themselves. In other words, barriers to progress are typically viewed as issues of technology adoption, not as part of the innovation process itself. This study contributes to changing the paradigm by proposing a living lab approach, which considers innovation as an adaptive process where stakeholders co-produce knowledge and collaborate based on inclusivity and empowerment. Our specific concept for this approach is called a Living Lab for People (LL4P). This conceptual paper outlines a framework to guide the development of a LL4P that remains flexible to be adapted for specific sites. While we seek to identify common denominators, we recognize the necessity for such a framework to remain open enough to be adaptable for varied contexts. Consequently, the framework draws on the living lab literature but tailors existing approaches for sustainable food system transformation and puts people (men, women, and marginalized groups among key food system actors) at the center of innovation processes with a clear intention to address power and social inequity. We draw on specific cases in China, Colombia, Kenya and Vietnam as learning grounds for formulating LL4Ps through locally led innovation processes. Based on our learnings and consultations, we define a LL4P as an inclusive and diverse space for people to advance their socio-technical innovation processes and associated modes of governance within a facilitated organizational structure. The principles of LL4Ps include co-production, gender equality and social inclusion, governance and institutional sustainability to advance existing and novel innovation processes. The practical experiences from applying this framework in the four case studies indicate alternative pathways for transforming the food system toward a sustainable and socially equitable trajectory through the establishment of a LL4P.

× This study focuses on the valuation of ecosystem services in Kenya and Vietnam, two countries that have received much attention from the international development community for their biodiversity significance, opportunities for scaling, climate and poverty challenges, and political will. Using The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB) framework and the Millenium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA), this study estimates per hectare values of ecosystem services in Kenya and Vietnam based on a systematic literature review of studies on the values of ecosystem services in both countries. Provisioning services, such as medicines, timber, and non-timber forest products were better studied than regulating, supporting and cultural ecosystem services, underscoring the need for further research to better estimate the values of non-tangible services which would improve the estimation of total value of ecosystem services in Kenya and Vietnam. To complement the national level analysis, we selected forest biomes to conduct a value transfer analysis. Forests provide ecosystem service benefits worth $25.78 billion for Kenya and $35.6 billion in Vietnam in 2022 USD. In comparison, the agricultural sector contributed $48.50 billion to Vietnam’s GDP and $24.10 billon to Kenya’s GDP in 2021. The per hectare values for ecosystem services are used in a value transfer analysis to estimate the total value of forest ecosystem services in Vietnam and Kenya. The average per hectare value of ecosystem services provided by forests in Kenya is $5,718.50 ha−1 yr−1 estimated within a range spanning $1,609.44 to $15,606.62 ha−1 yr−1 , while Vietnam's forests demonstrate an average value of $3,650.20 ha−1 yr−1 , with a range of $84.93 to $8,978.16 ha−1 yr−1 . We project the loss of forests into 2050 and estimate the annual economic loss of ecosystem services at $48.08 million for Kenya and $76.29 million for Vietnam, respectively, if deforestation and forest degradation continue at the current rates. Our approach presents a comprehensive overview of diverse ecosystem services, equipping policymakers with a nuanced comprehension of ecosystems’ inherent value. By consolidating values from the literature into a national-level estimate, we provide compelling evidence at a broader scale for informed decision-making. Despite the well-known limitations of value transfer method and with caveats, the values presented in our paper can provide a guiding reference for incorporating these estimations into broader policymaking endeavors.

× In many developing countries, smallholder farmers cultivating vegetatively propagated crops (VPCs) have limited access to quality planting material. This constraint can limit both the yield of and returns on VPC cultivation. Yet policy and regulatory initiatives designed to strengthen access to quality VPC planting materials have been relatively unsuccessful to date. Part of the problem is the unique biological and economic characteristics of vegetative propagation and its distinctness from cereal crops, which dominate narratives on seed system reforms. Drawing on qualitative analysis of policy and practice, this study examines reform options related to quality assurance regulations in four crop-country combinations: cassava in Nigeria and Vietnam, and potato in Kenya and Vietnam. The study highlights theory and evidence on existing models of regulation; alternative models that may better incentivize cost-effective multiplication and distribution; and recommendations for policy, regulation, and investment in VPC seed markets. Findings indicate that regulations designed around strict and centralized quality control systems tend to limit market size, while more localized production systems are limited by both capacity and reach. These findings suggest the need for alternatives that balance a permissive regulatory regime with decentralized production systems, grassroots capacity development, market surveillance, and systems that integrate internal (producer-level) quality assurance with external (regulatory) quality assurance.

× Studies on credit schemes for small-scale entrepreneurs have documented their potential to alleviate poverty and improve food security, nutrition, and health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries. Other studies find mixed impacts of credit schemes on reducing income inequality, empowering women, and enhancing children’s education. Moreover, growing evidence finds that entrepreneurs offer credit to customers; little is known about what this practice means for entrepreneurs, and even less about gendered differences in this practice. Herein, we consider the case of final retailers in agricultural value chains and examine how male and female informal milk vendors from peri-urban Nairobi borrow and sell on credit, and how these experiences affect their businesses where there are few formal safeguards to ensure repayment. In 2017, we conducted 49 individual interviews, four key informant interviews, and six focus groups with men and women who were current or former milk vendors. A thematic analysis revealed that vendors sell on credit to appeal to customers, which may be advantageous when vendors need to rid themselves of milk before it spoils, regardless of gender. With few strategies to recoup costs from customers who fail to repay, however, failure to collect debt may cause default for vendors who acquired milk via informal borrowing. The consequences are likely more severe for women vendors, who generally have less capital to fall back on relative to men. Development organizations should identify gender-sensitive financial services that can help entrepreneurs maintain viable businesses despite the volatility of borrowing and selling on credit.

× This paper presents results of a data partnership framework for strengthening evidence-based planning and implementation that was initiated in 2019 in five selected African countries (Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Senegal, and Togo) during the second round of the CAADP biennial review (BR) process. It analyzes the effect of the activities conducted on the data reporting rate and the quality of data reported in the five pilot countries, compared with what was achieved in like-pilot countries. The like-pilot countries are non-pilot countries that have characteristics like the pilot countries at the baseline which affect selection into the pilot or the data reporting and quality outcomes. Different methods (standard deviations, propensity score matching, and two-stage weighted regression) are used to identify the like-pilot countries, and a difference-in-difference method is used to estimate the effect of the pilot activities on the outcomes.
The capacity-strengthening activities focused on working with the country Biennial Review (BR) team to: assess the inaugural or 2018 BR process and identify the data gaps; constitute and train members of data clusters to compile and check the data for the 2020 BR; and then validate and submit the data. The findings show that the activities helped the pilot countries to improve their performance in the data reporting rate and the quality of data reported in the 2020 BR. The largest improvement is observed in Togo and Senegal, followed by Kenya and Malawi, and then Mozambique.
The average increase in the data reporting rate between 2018 and 2020 BRs for the pilot countries is greater than the average progress made in the like-pilot countries by about 6 to 9 % pts. This derives mostly from improvements in the data reporting rate for the indicators under theme 3 on ending hunger. Regarding the quality of data reported (measured as the percent of the data reported that have issues) too, the pilot countries on average performed better than the like-pilot countries, especially with respect to the data reported under themes 2 on investment in agriculture and 3 on ending hunger. But most of the estimated differences have low or no statistical significance. Implications for sustaining the progress made in the pilot countries, as well as for extending the activities to other countries, for the next rounds of the BR are discussed.

× There is vast literature on groups as a useful mechanism for rural development, especially for women. However, for group participation to fulfil on potential benefits to women, gender-specific constraints must be addressed. This study examines how to promote gender-inclusive governance of mixed-sex self-help groups in the African context, analysing twenty mixed-sex focus group discussions with 190 group members in rural western Kenya. Emphasizing group member perceptions and beliefs about participation and governance, we undertake an empirical assessment of institutional factors that explain and facilitate effective participation of female members. We find that group-member endowments impact the group’s interpretation in terms of their understanding of gender issues and political processes, and that the pro-gender intentions behind governance structures are more important than the structures themselves. Furthermore, groups in this context serve as a distinct parallel institution to that of the home that enable them to push the boundaries of community gender norms.

× The Malabo Agenda on Accelerated Agricultural Growth and Transformation has brought technical challengesto the development of agricultural strategiesby expanding the number of commitments and goalsunder the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme.In this paper, we describe and apply an economic modeling framework that wasdeveloped to identify the agricultural investment priority areas for a country and to define milestones to track its progress towards the Malabo goals. The framework consists ofa three-layer simulation model that aimstocapturemultiple Malabo commitments and goals. First, the agricultural productivity analysis uses the stochastic meta-frontier technique to assess opportunities to increase agricultural productivity. Second, the economywide analysis uses an agricultural and investment focused computable general equilibrium model to capture the Malabo goalson agricultural growth, intra-Africantrade of agricultural commodities, and public and private agricultural investments.Third, the microeconomic analysis builds upon statistical economic modeling to allow direct measurement and simulation of the Malabo goals on poverty and hunger. The modeling framework is applied to Kenya using the most recent data.TheMalabo Agenda simulation results indicate that Kenya’s current nonagriculture-led growth isnot sufficient to achieving the Malabo overarching goals on poverty and hunger. Agriculture-led growthcomplemented by extendedsocial assistanceis more likely to close the income growth and inequality gaps and contribute to achieving the multiple Malabo commitments and goals by 2025.

× Unlike physical losses, deterioration of food safety can be difficult to observe. In low- and middle- income countries, much of the food supply is never tested for safety hazards. We analyze data from 1500 maize samples and associated consumer surveys collected from clients of small-scale hammer mills in rural Kenya. We find that while visible damage to maize is penalized by lower prices, there is no correlation between price and aflatoxin, a carcinogenic fungal contaminant, implying an absence of market incentives to manage this aspect of food loss. Aflatoxin contamination is, however, correlated with consumer perceptions of quality, especially for self-produced maize, suggesting an information asymmetry that could lead to inefficiencies in this market.

× Evidence continues to mount that foodborne illness imposes a staggering health burden in developing countries. However, standard approaches used by developed country governments to ensure food safety are not appropriate in settings where regulatory enforcement capacity is weak and most firms are small and informal. Thus, interventions to improve food safety in developing countries must take into account the constraints and incentives faced by producers in these countries. In this paper, we test the impact of two such interventions: subsidies for technologies that improve food safety and price premiums for safer produce. We examine the case of on-farm control of aflatoxin, a carcinogenic toxin linked to child stunting that is produced by a fungus commonly found on maize and groundnut. We show that compared to Kenyan farmers who produce maize only for their family’s own consumption, Kenyan farmers who produce maize for sale are less likely to undertake post-harvest practices that increase the unobservable quality of aflatoxin safety. Employing randomized discount vouchers, we find that willingness to pay for a new post-harvest technology to prevent aflatoxin contamination is significantly lower among market producers than subsistence farmers. However, we find that take-up of the technology among market producers increases when they have the opportunity to sell aflatoxin-safe maize at a premium a few months after harvest. Using take-up rates from the experiment, we model the impacts of public subsidies and market incentives for aflatoxin control. We find that subsidization of aflatoxin control technologies is a cost-effective strategy for reducing liver cancer and possibly also for reducing stunting in children. The most cost-effective technologies considered are widely adopted by both subsistence and market producers, implying little additional impact of a price premium on food safety.

× Annual data on Kenya from 1950 to 2014 are used to analyze the determinants of the level and composition of government expenditures and estimate the agricultural-output returns to the different types of government expenditures. The paper analyzes expenditures for six functions (general administration, defense, education, health, agriculture, and other economic functions—transport, communications, etc.) as well as the capital-to-recurrent expenditure ratios within each of the six functions. Simultaneous equations modeling methods are employed, and different diagnostic tests are used to check for and address issues with stationarity, causality, and autocorrelation. Different model specifications are used to assess the sensitivity of the results to using different measures and combinations of the conceptual variables that are hypothesized to affect the composition of government expenditures and agricultural production.

× This paper analyzes implications of cash constraints for collective marketing, using the case of the Kenyan dairy sector. Collective marketing, for instance through cooperatives, can improve smallholder farmer income but relies on informal, nonenforceable agreements to sell outputs collectively. Side selling of output in the local market occurs frequently and is typically attributed to price differences between the market and cooperative. This paper provides an alternative explanation, namely that farmers sell in the local market when they are cash constrained because cooperatives defer payments while buyers in local markets pay cash immediately. Building on semiparametric estimation techniques for panel data, we find robust evidence of this theory. High-frequency, high-detail panel data show that farmers sell more in the local market, in particular to buyers who pay cash immediately, in weeks when they have low cash on hand. Moreover, households cope with health shocks by selling more milk in the local market and less to the cooperative, but only in weeks when they are not covered by health insurance. Increased flexibility in payment and the provision of insurance through agricultural cooperatives can potentially reduce side selling and improve the performance of collective marketing arrangements.

× Motivated by evidence of mental accounting, this paper tests whether the choice of when to be paid depends on the income type. A lab-in-the-field experiment in Kenya asked dairy cooperative members to allocate both their regular milk payments and an irregular windfall between two dates. We find that participants allocated milk payments to the later of the two dates but allocated the windfall to the earlier date. Most participants self-reported deferring their milk payments in order to save for lump-sum expenses. Those planning to use milk payments for smaller, more frequent purchases were less likely to defer payments. Farmers hence appeared to earmark regular milk payments, but not the irregular windfall, for bulky expenditures. This behavior potentially explains why discount rates elicited using experimenter money are often higher than those inferred from observed choices over regular income. Given that compliance with informal contracts depends on whether the timing of payments aligns with recipient preferences, these findings also have implications for contract design in rural value chains.

× Health insurance can protect consumption from health shocks, but it can also crowd out informal transfers. This paper examines whether health insurance improves consumption smoothing in the face of health shocks, and to what extent results depend on households’ access to informal transfers as a risk coping strategy. Using high-frequency panel data on health and finances collected in rural Kenya, we show that mobile money users have stronger access to informal transfers than nonusers. We further find that health shocks induce nonusers of mobile money to lower their nonhealth expenditures by approximately 25 percent in weeks when they are uninsured. These same households are able to smooth consumption in weeks with insurance coverage, due to lower out-of-pocket health expenditures. In contrast, mobile money users are able to smooth consumption when experiencing health shocks even in the absence of health insurance, due to an inflow of informal transfers. For this group, health insurance improves healthcare utilization and does not crowd out the inflow informal transfers during weeks with health shocks. These findings have implications for the design of health insurance and mobile health financing products.

× In the context of increasing vulnerability to climate change for people dependent on natural resources for their livelihoods, the International Food Policy Research Institute and partner organizations in Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, and Bangladesh undertook a project broadly aiming to create knowledge that will help policymakers and development agencies to strengthen the capacity of male and female smallholder farmers and livestock keepers to manage climate-related risks. This study—one component of the project—examines the networks and power dynamics of stakeholders in the four target countries so as to (1) identify potential partners in the research process, (2) find out which organizations could make use of the research findings in their activities, and (3) inform the communication and outreach strategy of the research project. This paper describes the network structures for climate change policy, the actors in the networks with high centrality and influence scores, and the implications of these results for outreach and dissemination.

× Using a participatory rural appraisal approach, a series of qualitative studies were conducted in four countries facing negative impacts of climate change—Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya and Mali—in order to determine men’s and women’s perceptions of climate change, adaptive approaches, and the degree to which assets and group participation play a role in adaptation strategies. Similarities were found across countries in terms of perceptions of climate change, impacts, and strategies for adaptation. Farmers and pastoralists, groups heavily dependent on natural resources, are starkly aware of and impacted by subtle climatic changes, and those with a stronger asset base were better able to adapt to changes and shocks.

× The lack of a reliably safe food supply in developing countries imposes major costs on both public health and market performance. This paper addresses the question of whether and why food processing firms voluntarily invest in food safety in the absence of effective regulatory enforcement. Using data from more than 900 maize flour samples representing 23 distinct brands in eastern and central Kenya, we explore the relationship between price, brand, and aflatoxin contamination. Aflatoxin is a toxin common in maize, groundnuts, and other crops around the world; and although it is unobservable to the consumer, it may be correlated with other quality characteristics. We find a strong negative correlation between price and contamination rates, which is consistent with certain brands investing more in quality to avoid loss of reputational capital.

× This paper reports findings from a qualitative study undertaken in Tanzania and Kenya to examine women’s access to and ownership of KickStart pumps and the implications for their ability to make major decisions on crop choices and use of income from irrigated crops. Results from sales-monitoring data show that women purchase less than 10 percent of the pumps and men continue to make most of the major decisions on crop choices and income use. These findings vary by type of crop, with men making major decisions on high-income crops such as tomatoes and women having relatively more autonomy on crops such as leafy vegetables.

× This paper is part of a set of country case studies that take a detailed look at public expenditures in agriculture and at how these expenditure data are captured in government financial and budget accounts. The objective of these studies is to unpack the black box of public expenditure statistics reported in various cross-country datasets and ultimately enable the use of existing government accounts to identify levels and compositions of country-level agricultural spending data, with clearer knowledge of what these data are in fact accounting for.

× This report provides some reflections and insights on the level of awareness, practices, and organizational and institutional issues being faced by countries as they adapt to climate change, based on interviews with 87 practitioners working in government agencies, local organizations, international organizations, and think thanks reporting involvement in climate change adaptation. Data were collected in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Mali using both an e-survey platform and face-to-face interviews.

× Because of the substantive role played by livestock in the income and asset portfolios of the poor, livestock diseases can be an important threat to livelihoods. Yet for a variety of reasons, there are few applicable methods and consequently scant literature to assess the impacts of livestock diseases on livelihood outcomes. Existing literature comprises small-area studies and computable models with wider geographic focus, both of which have limitations in this specific context. We propose an alternative approach for estimating the impacts of livestock diseases on livelihoods. This proposed approach is an adaptation of a quasi-experimental impact evaluation method, namely propensity score matching, which uses features available in large-scale datasets with wide geographic coverage to create counterfactual scenarios that could mimic outcomes of a disease outbreak. By its construction the method is well suited for ex ante impact assessment. As an illustration we apply the method to the hypothetical case of an avian flu outbreak in Kenya.

× Attention to land degradation and environmental pollution has increased significantly in the past 25 years, largely due to greater levels of international cooperation and recognition that local changes in land resources have global impacts. As the world’s focus on climate change increases, so, too, does the attention being paid to drought and its rise in frequency and severity. Despite this heightened global awareness, action to prevent or mitigate land degradation and drought at national or international levels has been limited, primarily because there are limited assessments regarding the cost of land degradation. Past global assessments have largely focused on the biophysical impacts of land degradation while little has been done to assess its global economic costs or the costs-versus-benefits of preventing or mitigating it. Additionally, past studies have largely focused on loss of on-site productivity and have paid limited attention to the off-site costs of land degradation and off-site benefits of land improvement. As part of the effort to address these and other gaps, this study was undertaken to prepare a framework for global assessment of the economics of desertification, land degradation, and drought (E-DLDD).

× Changes in the agriculture sector are essential to mitigate and adapt to climate change, ensure food security for the growing population, and improve the livelihoods of poor smallholder producers. What agricultural strategies are needed to meet these challenges? To what extent are there synergies among these strategies? This paper examines these issues for smallholder producers in Kenya. Several practices emerge as triple wins in terms of climate adaptation, GHG mitigation, and productivity and profitability. In particular, integrated soil fertility management and improved livestock feeding are shown to provide multiple benefits across the agroecological zones examined. In addition, irrigation and soil and water conservation are also shown to be essential in the arid zone. The results suggest that agricultural investments targeted towards triple-win strategies will have the greatest payoff in terms of increased resilience of farm and pastoralist households to climate change, rural development, and climate change mitigation for generations to come.

× Kenya is vulnerable to avian flu given its position along migratory bird routes and proximity to other high-risk countries. This raises concerns about the effect an outbreak could have on economic development. We use a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of Kenya to simulate potential outbreaks of different severities, durations, and geographic spreads. Results indicate that even a severe outbreak does not greatly reduce economic growth. It does, however, significantly worsen poverty, because poultry is an important income source for poor farmers and a major food item in consumers� baskets. Avian flu therefore does pose a threat to future development in Kenya. Reducing the duration and geographic spread of an outbreak is found to substantially lower economic losses. However, losses are still incurred when poultry demand falls, even without a confirmed outbreak but only the threat of an outbreak. Our findings support monitoring poultry production and trade, responding rapidly to possible infections, and improving both farmers� and consumers� awareness of avian flu.

× This paper examines European Union (E.U.) demand for chilled fish fillets assuming product heterogeneity due to country of origin and assesses the structural adjustment in demand as indicated by the increase in imports from Sri Lanka since the tsunami in December 2004. The primary objective of this research is to assess how Sri Lanka’s fish exports affected fish exports from Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda (Lake Victoria region). Although the results show no significant price competition between the Lake Victoria region and Sri Lanka, the Lake Victoria countries are clearly worse off now that Sri Lanka is a major supplier of chilled fish to the E.U. A comparison of the two periods 2001–2004 and 2007–2009 finds that in the former period, past imports of Lake Victoria fish had a positive impact on present imports, indicating that importers developed a preference for Lake Victoria fish during this time; in the latter period, this effect no longer existed. Most important is the change in the responsiveness of imports from Lake Victoria to real aggregate expenditures on imported fish in the E.U. The results show that a lesser share of aggregate expenditures is allocated to the Lake Victoria region and that the region now benefits less from an increase in aggregate expenditures.

× Farmer field schools (FFSs) are a popular education and extension approach worldwide. Such schools use experiential learning and a group approach to facilitate farmers in making decisions, solving problems, and learning new techniques. However, there is limited or conflicting evidence as to their effect on productivity and poverty, especially in East Africa. This study is unique in that it uses a longitudinal impact evaluation (difference in difference approach) with quasi-experimental methods (propensity score matching and covariate matching) together with qualitative approaches to provide rigorous evidence to policymakers and other stakeholders on an FFS project in Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda. The study provides evidence on participation in FFSs and on the effects of FFSs on various outcomes.

× In this paper we investigate the role of poultry in households' livelihoods portfolios and the impact of supply-and-demand shocks that may be caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) on households' various livelihoods outcomes in four Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. The study countries include Ethiopia and Kenya in East Africa and Ghana and Nigeria in West Africa. These countries represent a spectrum of SSA countries regarding disease status, means of disease spread, and the role of the poultry sector in the economy. By using nationally representative household-level secondary data and discrete choice methods (probit and zero-inflated negative binomial models), we profile the household, farm, and regional characteristics of those households that are most likely to keep poultry and those households that are most likely to be engaged in intensive poultry production (that is, to keep larger household flocks). We estimate the ex ante impact of HPAI outbreaks and scares/threats on livelihoods outcomes by using the propensity score matching approach. The results of this study generate valuable information regarding the role of poultry in the livelihoods of small-scale poultry-producing households and the livelihoods impacts of HPAI-induced supply-and-demand shocks. Such information is critical for the design of targeted, and hence effective, HPAI control and mitigation policies.

× "United Kingdom (UK) demand for carnations by exporting country was estimated using a production version of the Rotterdam model, and model estimates were used to assess the effects of EU preferential trade agreements on import demand. Of particular importance was how these agreements affected Colombian and Kenyan carnation exports to the UK, the second largest market for Colombian carnations and the largest market for Kenyan carnations. Results showed that Colombia benefited from preferential access to the UK more so than Kenya: the benefit to Colombia was due to both trade creation and diversion, whereas the benefit to Kenya was mostly due to trade diversion. Results further showed that the competition between Colombian and Kenyan carnations was insignificant, and there was no evidence that the preferences given to Colombia harmed Kenya or vice versa." --from authors' abstract

× The Lake Victoria region has the highest HIV prevalence in the East African Community, which comprises Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi. This region also has a significant concentration of commercial agricultural plantations, which rely on mobile workers, an extensive system of out-grower schemes, and linkages with neighboring communities and transportation routes. This paper reviews the relationships between the various components of the plantation system and the spread of HIV, which is a complex and dynamic process. There has been relatively little research on these dynamic interactions, and the relevant policies and programs are generally silent on mobility-induced vulnerability to HIV. As such, this review first examines how the conditions and structure of the migration process may increase HIV vulnerability for migrants, thereby illuminating key challenges. Second, the review considers what may be done to address these issues, particularly within the plantation system. A comprehensive response to HIV would require that the plantation companies engage in efforts against HIV/AIDS across its entire time line (that is, ranging from efforts to prevent infection to attempts to mitigate its full impact on both agricultural workers and the business as a whole). Despite the logic of this argument, we do not yet have strong financial evidence proving that companies should invest in a comprehensive strategy. This critical gap should be addressed. For example, pilot programs on select plantations could be used to show the cost-benefits of addressing HIV/AIDS through a well-designed set of interventions aimed at the different target groups.

× This paper documents the factors driving the impressive growth in fertilizer use and maize productivity in Kenya since the early 1990s up to 2007. The basic story is one of synergies between liberalization of input and maize markets and public investments in support of smallholder agriculture, leading to tangible private-sector investment in fertilizer retailing and maize marketing, which in turn has resulted in a 34 percent increase in smallholder fertilizer use per hectare of maize cultivated and an 18 percent increase in maize yields over the 1997–2007 period. There is also evidence of a reduction in maize marketing margins during this period. These developments have improved the welfare of rural and urban maize consumers, who constitute roughly 80 percent of Kenya’s population. While certain aspects of liberalization have also benefited maize-selling smallholder farmers, many other developments in the Kenyan agricultural sector have not. Events since 2007 call into question the sustainability of Kenya’s achievements in improving smallholders’ access to maize and fertilizer markets over the 1990–2007 period.

× "Local farming communities throughout the world face binding productivity constraints, diverse nutritional needs, environmental concerns, and significant economic and financial pressures. Developing countries address these challenges in different ways, including public and private sector investments in plant breeding and other modern tools for genetic crop improvement. In order to measure the impact of any technology and prioritize investments, we must assess the relevant resources, human capacity, clusters, networks and linkages, as well as the institutions performing technological research and development, and the rate of farmer adoption. However, such measures have not been recently assessed, in part due to the lack of complete standardized information on public plant breeding and biotechnology research in developing countries. To tackle this void, the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO), in consultation with the International Food Policy Institute (IFPRI) and other organizations, designed a plant breeding and biotechnology capacity survey for implementation by FAO consultants in 100 developing countries. IFPRI, in collaboration with FAO and national experts contracted by FAO to complete in-country surveys, identified and analyzed plant breeding and biotechnology programs in four developing countries: Cameroon, Kenya, the Philippines, and Venezuela. Here, we use an innovation systems framework to examine the investments in human and financial resources and the distribution of resources among the different programs, as well as the capacity and policy development for agricultural research in the four selected countries. Based on our findings, we present recommendations to help sustain and increase the efficiency of publicly- and privately-funded plant breeding programs, while maximizing the use of genetic resources and developing opportunities for GM crop production. Policy makers, private sector breeders, and other stakeholders can use this information to prioritize investments, consider product advancement, and assess the relative magnitude of the potential risks and benefits of their investments." -- from Author's Abstract

× "This article analyzes the on-site and off-site economic impacts of various sustainable land management (SLM) practices in Kenya. Long-term trial data are used to establish the relationship between SLM practices and maize yield. The analysis of on-site effects focuses on the profitability of maize production at the farm level, while the examined off-site effects include carbon sequestration and siltation from maize farms, which increase the cost of potable water production. The major contribution of this study is the use of long-term experimental data to estimate the impacts of land management practices on crop yield and consider their off-site benefits and costs. The results of this study show that soil and water conservation (SWC) structures reinforced with leguminous plants are more profitable when the plants are used as fodder, as opposed to situations in which only SWC structures are used. SWC structures reinforced with vegetation had lower maintenance costs, whereas those that were not reinforced with leguminous trees were not profitable over the long-term period. These results suggest that complementary and multipurpose SWC practices are more likely to be adopted compared to non-complementary and/or single-purpose practices. Thus, SWC practices should be promoted as a package of complementary technologies. If it is not feasible to promote a mix of complementary enterprises, high value crops are likely to make SLM practices more profitable. In areas where SLM practices are not profitable, promotion of alternative livelihoods is necessary. Adoption of SLM also provides global environmental services worth 10% of the net present value of the SLM practices over the 50-year period addressed in the present study Finally, the results of this analysis suggest that farmers who offer significant environmental services should be compensated for their efforts." -- from Author's Abstract

× "Smallholder producers in marginal and semiarid areas of eastern Kenya have not benefited greatly from research investments made in improvement of crops grown in such environments (sorghum, millet, and legumes, including pigeonpea) either by the international community or the national agricultural research system because of poorly developed seed systems. However, informal and local market purchases are the major sources of seed for non-maize cereals and legumes. In the absence of any formalized seed system for dryland crops, more and more farmers rely on local markets to supply seed during normal and disaster periods. We determined the factors affecting the quantities of pigeonpea traded by vendors during the 2006 short-rains season using simple OLS estimation. We found that the participation of traders and farmers was higher and traded larger quantities of pigeonpea in weekly markets located in areas where seed-based intervention programs in place than in non-intervention areas. Also agro-ecologically, markets located in slightly wetter regions offered more varieties and handled higher sales compared with marketsheds in dry regions. Among the traders, the grain traders dominated through their sheer volume of sales, higher investment, and storage capacity in these markets though the distinction between seeds and grains was poor. Of the vendor characteristics, young, educated vendors traded higher quantities of pigeonpea during the planting season. The amount of time spent selling by different vendors in the village fairs also had a significant influence on the pigeonpea quantity traded. Certain market infrastructure variables such as distance to the local markets and the access to information sources (mobile phones) also significantly influenced the amount of pigeonpea sold among vendors in these markets. The existing pigeonpea value chain in local markets could be improved further, provided proper synergies exist between different actors in the system. This would enhance local crop diversity levels as well as improve access to quality plant materials for farming communities in the marginal environments of eastern Kenya." --from authors' abstract

× "We examine the effect of trade protection rates on evasion in three African countries: Kenya, Mauritius, and Nigeria. In capturing the effect of trade protection on tariff evasion, we use a much improved measure of trade protection from MacMAP 2001 and 2004. For two of these countries, the MacMAP data set allows the novelty of using variation in trade protection across product, time, and trading partners, leading to significantly refined estimates of evasion elasticity relative to existing studies on tariff evasion. We find a positive elasticity of evasion with respect to tariffs in all three countries. Further, our results match the rankings of countries in terms of institutional quality. Greater responsiveness of evasion to the level of tariffs is established in Nigeria (comparatively weak institutional quality) vis-à-vis Kenya, and in Kenya vis-à-vis Mauritius (comparatively good institutional quality). This pattern is preserved even when focusing on the same set of trading partners and the same set of imported products for the three countries. This result is robust to controlling for protection on related products (that create incentives/opportunities for evasion) and also for degree of differentiation of the product in question (characteristics that determine the ease of detection of evasion)." --from authors' abstract

× "Kenya’s economy is relatively diverse, with both agricultural and industrial potential. However, the economy has performed poorly over the last decade, and poverty and inequality have risen. This paper examines the impact of alternative growth paths and rural investments on poverty using an economy-wide model. It finds that if Kenya continues along its current growth path, its economy will have to grow by more than 10 percent per year over the coming decade to meet the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of halving poverty by 2015. Therefore, Kenya must search for alternative sources of poverty-reducing growth. The results of the model indicate that poverty is unlikely to decline significantly without an acceleration of agricultural growth. Growth in agriculture is found to benefit both urban and rural households, whereas industry-led growth benefits a smaller segment of the urban population, thus exacerbating inequality. Kenya’s current Economic Recovery Strategy, however, is not optimistic about agriculture’s growth potential, focusing more heavily on industry-led growth. Therefore, as Kenya prepares its new national strategy, the country should place greater emphasis on and direct resources toward accelerating agricultural growth. In assessing the impact of rural investments on growth and poverty, the paper finds that increasing agricultural spending to meet the 10 percent target set by the Maputo Declaration would lift an additional 1.5 million people above the poverty line by 2015. Specific agricultural investments have higher returns in different parts of the country, however. Irrigation favors the lowlands and the poorest segment of the population, while research and extension (R&E) favors the midlands and highlands. Investment in R&E is also found to have the highest returns in both growth and poverty reduction. However, increasing agricultural spending to 10 percent of total spending is insufficient to meet either the MDG or the 6 percent agricultural growth target of the Comprehensive African Agriculture Development Program, which Kenya has recently adopted. . Achieving this target requires nonagricultural investments, such as in roads and market development. Building rural roads and reducing agricultural transaction costs significantly reduces poverty and encourages growth beyond rural areas. While it is necessary to increase spending on agriculture, the fiscal burden of an agricultural strategy can be greatly reduced by improving investment efficiency." -- from Author's Abstract

× Over the last two decades, several seed-related programs have been initiated in eastern Kenya to improve farmers’ access to quality seeds of dryland cereals and legumes. They are provided during two occasions, regular and emergency times. But very often, the formal supply mechanisms limit their role in provision of seeds other than maize. In the absence of any formalized systems of seed provision for other dryland crops, such as sorghum and pigeon pea, farmers have preferred local markets for their seed needs, especially during distress periods. Here we have examined the role of various seed-intervention programs in eastern Kenya, along with the strengths and weaknesses of each program. We have also underscored the importance of local markets and their actors in meeting the needs for non-maize and bean seeds in these marginal environments. For this purpose, detailed, informal interviews were conducted during October–December 2005 with all the stakeholders, namely public and private institutions and vendors in eight major local markets in eastern Kenya. The results of the study call for synergies between existing formal (private, public, and other development initiative) systems and informal (local market) seed systems to enhance crop yields and the diversity of dryland cereals and legumes through effective seed-supply interventions." -- from Author's Abstract